Kenaikan Harga emas tertahan di kisaran Ma 200 grafik 1 jam kemarin di $1267 dan meleha kembali hingga ke area $1239. Harga kini berada di kisaran 1245. Tekanan turun emas kemungkinan karena dollar yang menguat jelang libur pasar AS, Independence Day, besok dan jelang data tenaga kerja Jumat pekan ini. Dalam jangka pendek, tekanan turun emas berpeluang membawa emas hingga level 1233 (MA 100 grafik 1 jam). Support selanjutnya di kisaran 1224. Sementara bila harga menembus level 1250 (MA 50 grafik 1 jam), emas berpeluang menyentuh level MA 200 nya di kisaran 1256-62. Hari ini cukup banyak data ekonomi AS yang akan dirilis seperti data Non Farm Employment Change yang disurvei oleh ADP, data klaim tunjangan pengangguran mingguan, data neraca perdagangan dan data aktivitas sektor non manufaktur yang disurvei ISM. Fokus perhatian pasar tentunya lebih ke data-data yang berkaitan dengan situasi tenaga kerja AS. Bila data-data ini membaik, dollar bisa kembali menguat dan melemahkan harga emas. Demikian pula sebaliknya.
- Indicators Suggest Gold Stocks and Silver Will Double (minyanville.com)
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- Make Pips Not War! Highly Profitable Systems Review! (highprofitable.wordpress.com)
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- Where is the Gold and Where Did it Go? (financialsurvivalnetwork.com)
By Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist
Markets are once again back under pressure after Tuesday’s equity market gains were entirely wiped out (9th worst point drop on record for Dow). Fear and panic remain firmly in control, and gold prices continue to soar to record highs beyond $1800. The US Dollar has been a major beneficiary of the safe haven liquidation, while the Franc and Yen are also incredibly well bid. Meanwhile, the higher yielding commodity bloc has been decimated, and the Australian Dollar has led the declines. A weaker batch of employment data out of Australia has not helped the antipodean’s cause, with the unemployment rate rising to 5.1% and coming in well above the 4.9% expectation.
Elsewhere, contagion fears in Europe have picked up, with market participants seriously worrying about the ability for the Eurozone economy to recover from what appears to be a very deep and messy crisis. The attention has shifted to Italy, with the country’s banking sector falling apart, while France’s credit worthiness is also in the spotlight following the S&P downgrade of US ratings. Any additional deterioration in the Eurozone could seriously compromise the credibility of the EFSF. Looking ahead, the economic calendar for the remainder of the day is mostly second tier, and markets should continue to trade off of the broader global macro themes and developments.
EUR/USD: The market continues to adhere to a bearish sequence of lower tops since May, with a fresh lower top now in place by 1.4535 ahead of the next downside extension back towards and eventually below 1.4000. In the interim, look for any intraday rallies to be well capped ahead of 1.4400, while only back above 1.4500 delays.
USD/JPY: Setbacks have stalled out just ahead of the 76.25 record lows from March, with the market dropping to 76.30 ahead of the latest reversal. Given that we are seeing the rate by record lows, we would not at all be surprised to see the formation of a material base in favor of significant upside back towards the 82.00 area over the coming sessions. However, the overall structure still remains bearish and it will take a break back above 80.00 to officially alleviate downside pressures and confirm reversal prospects. Below 76.25 negates.
GBP/USD: The market remains locked in a broader downtrend off of the April highs, and a fresh lower top is now sought out somewhere ahead of 1.6550 in favor of the next downside extension back towards the recent range lows at 1.5780. Ultimately, only a break back above 1.6550 would delay bearish outlook and give reason for pause, while back under the 200-Day SMA at 1.6085 should accelerate declines.
USD/CHF: Despite the intense downtrend resulting in recently established fresh record lows by 0.7000, short/medium/longer-term technical studies are violently stretched, and we continue to like the idea of taking shots at buying in anticipation of a major base. Still, at this point, fading this trend will require some upside confirmation and we would look for a break and close back above 0.7350 at a minimum to open the door for these reversal prospects and alleviate immediate downside pressures.
Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist
- $A up despite on French fears, jobs data (news.theage.com.au)
- US Dollar Looking More Contructive Across the Board into Tuesday (managemenresiko.wordpress.com)
- More of the Same Panic and Fear; Gold Rallies to Yet Another Record High (managemenresiko.wordpress.com)
US Dollar Looking More Contructive Across the Board into Tuesday
By Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist
- US Dollar Index bounces by yearly lows; more upside potential
- RBA leaves rates on hold as was widely expected at 4.75%
- Yen and Swissie find offers after trading to record highs
- US debt ceiling developments still being digested
- Eurozone structural concerns resurface
- Aussie and Kiwi finally showing weakness
The US Dollar has been well bid overall in the early week, with the price action resulting in a favorable close off of the yearly lows in the US Dollar Index. The only other currencies that have shown better bid in recent trade have been the other safe haven currencies in the Swiss Franc and Yen, which both trade just off recently established record highs against the Greenback. Still, even the Yen and Swissie showed some relative weakness in the latter portion of Monday trade, and with both of these markets looking extremely stretched, the risks from here seem to favor USD appreciation going forward.
Markets had initially been well bid on Monday on the news of a resolution to the US debt ceiling talks, with risk correlated assets rallying impressively, before finally reversing quite sharply into North American trade. A combination of concern over the type of resolution achieved by the US government, softer US ISM data, and widening Eurozone peripheral bond spreads, all contributed to the risk off trade, with US equities getting hit rather hard. We also started to finally see some relative weakness in the antipodean currencies, with both Aussie and Kiwi rolling over from post-float record high levels and putting in bearish closes against the Greenback.
The RBA has now come out early Tuesday leaving rates on hold at 4.75% as was widely expected, with the accompanying central bank statement maintaining its newly adopted less hawkish outlook. The central bank continues to express concern over broader global macro threats and some worrying deteriorative local fundamentals, and as such, even with the attractive yield differentials, we would continue to look to be fading any strength in the currency as we contend that the best is now behind the currency down under.
On the data front, the key release in Asian trade was a weaker than expected Aussie building approvals print. Looking ahead, economic releases in the European session are few, but at the same time should not go unnoticed with Swiss retails sales, UK construction PMI, and Eurozone producer prices all very capable of moving markets. US equity futures and oil prices are consolidating their latest declines, while gold is once again looking toppish by record highs following Monday’s bearish close.
EUR/USD: The market continues to adhere to a bearish sequence of lower tops since May, with a fresh lower top now likely in place by 1.4535 ahead of the next downside extension back towards and eventually below 1.4000. In the interim, look for any intraday rallies to be well capped ahead of 1.4400, with a break and close back below 1.4200 on Tuesday to accelerate declines. Ultimately, only back above 1.4535 would negate outlook and give reason for pause.
USD/JPY: Setbacks have stalled out for now just ahead of the 76.25 record lows from March, with the market dropping to 76.30 ahead of the latest minor bounce. However, the bounce is somewhat significant on a short-term basis, with the market putting in a bullish outside day formation on Monday to suggest that the price could once again be very well supported in favor of a major upside reversal over the coming days. Look for a break and close back above 78.05 to confirm bullish reversal prospects and accelerate gains towards 80.00, while back below 86.25 negates and opens the door for fresh record lows.
GBP/USD: Despite the latest rally back above 1.6400, the market still remains locked in a broader downtrend off of the April highs, and a fresh lower top is now sought out somewhere ahead of 1.6550 in favor of the next downside extension back towards the recent range lows at 1.5780. Monday’s strong bearish outside formation could very well set up the next lower top by 1.6475, and we look for a break and close back below 1.6200 to confirm and accelerate declines. Ultimately, only a break back above 1.6550 would delay bearish outlook and give reason for pause.
USD/CHF: Despite the intense downtrend resulting in recently established fresh record lows below 0.7800, short/medium/longer-term technical studies are looking quite stretched to us, and we continue to like the idea of taking shots at buying in anticipation of a major base. Monday’s fresh record lows by 0.7730 seem to have been very well supported, and we would be on the lookout for a break and close back above 0.7950 on Tuesday to encourage short-term reversal prospects and accelerate gains. Back below 0.7730 negates.
Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist
- USD Weighed Down Across the Board As Debt Ceiling Stress Weighs (benzinga.com)
- Fed Chair Significantly Downplays Prospects for Additional Easing (managemenresiko.wordpress.com)
- Analysts: Several Instruments Flashing Warning Signals Re Risk (forexlive.com)
- Forex Technical and Fundamental Analysis for July 11, 2011 (businessinsider.com)
By Jamie Saettele,
300 Minute Bars
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
The rally from the 2009 low is in 3 waves (which is corrective) and the 2 bull legs of the move are roughly equal. The decline however from this year’s high is also corrective and crude broken to a new high for the month. Focus is now on the 100% extension at 103.30. Look higher as long as price is above 93.52.
- Commodities Technical and Fundamental Analysis for July 20, 2011 (businessinsider.com)
- Commodities Technical and Fundamental Analysis for the Week of July 25, 2011 (businessinsider.com)
- Commodities Technical and Fundamental Analysis for July 18, 2011 (businessinsider.com)
- Today’s Call: AUDUSD – Bullish above 1.0534 (tradingfloor.com)
- Dollar Ignores Budget Headway, Earnings and Suffers for Risk Rally (managemenresiko.wordpress.com)
- Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis Further Deteriorates, So Why the Bounce? (managemenresiko.wordpress.com)
Teknikal Emas: Titik Koreksi Terendah di $1511
Secara teknikal harga spot emas telah mengakhiri rebound gelombang “B”, dan diperkirakan akan terkoreksi jatuh ke level $1,511 per ons untuk jangka panjang.
- Oil and Gold Track S&P 500, Look to Fed Officials’ Comments for Direction (benzinga.com)
- “Crude Oil, Gold to Fall as Euro Zone Debt Fears Compound Risk Aversion” and related posts (americanbankingnews.com)
- Howard Gold’s No-Nonsense Investing: Dealing with China is still a tricky business (marketwatch.com)
- Technical analysis of SPX, Dollar, Gold, Oil (benzinga.com)
- Peter Brimelow: Gold signaling hyperinflation? (marketwatch.com)
- Gold Rallies in the Ugly Face of Financial Markets (businessinsider.com)
- Trade Set-Ups For Gold (GLD, IAU, SGOL, PHYS) (247wallst.com)
Market Review Asia
Euro meraih level tingginya 3 minggu terhadap dollar AS hari Selasa terkait laporan bahwa Jerman berkemungkinan akan memberikan bantuan untuk Yunani. Indeks rata-rata Nikkei naik 2%, dipicu perkiraan peningkatan output oleh sektor manufaktur dalam beberapa bulan dan melemahnya Yen setelah Euro menguat dan Moody’s yang mempertimbangkan untuk menurunkan rating hutang Jepang. Bursa Seoul berakhir menguat 2.3% bersama investor asing yang beralih peran sebagai pelaku aksi beli, dengan reli sektor otomotif dan perkapalan seperti Kia Motors dan Hyundai Heavy Industries memberikan dukungan. Bursa Hong Kong berakhir naik, secara umum mengalami reli di pasar Asia yang membawa indeks ke area positif bulan ini, dengan meningkatnya volume perdagangan yang memperlihatkan minat investor kembali ke aset beresiko. Saham-saham konsumsi dan perkebunan memberikan kontribusi positif sebanyak 5,377 poin terhadap IHSG
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- Premarket: China concerns knock stocks (theglobeandmail.com)
- March 20, 2011- Is this market going to run away? + Please answer a poll question (dimsumtrader.wordpress.com)
Market Summary ( 19 / 5 / 2011 )
HSI Support : 22900 Resistance : 23400
CEI Support : 12880 Resistance : 13050
Market extends the late rally on the previous session and opens higher. Cyclical Plays gained ground, which stemmed up the market. After a choppy session, HSI closed higher but pared the gain. It finally finished at 23163, up 152 points. The turnover of Blue Chips is $21.3 billion as the total market turnover is $63.1 billion. Recent rallies will probably be short-lived if the turnover of Blue Chips remains thin.
By Technical Analysis, 10-day moving average is now at 23143. 50-day moving average is at 23450. It heads north as it jumps over the 10-day moving average. In the meantime, RSI-14 is 44. It hovers below the 50-mark level, which suggests to staying on weak side. Reading the Stochastic Oscillator, %K climbs above %D as it unveils a buying signal.
Analyzing the medium-term market trend, the previous low ( 17/3/2011 ) is at 22123 while the recent high ( 8/4/2011 ) is 24468. Measuring from the recent high, Fibonacci 0.382 retracement is at 23572. 0.618 retracement is now at 23018. Meanwhile, it recoups the 0.618 retracement, and heads towards 0.382 retracement.
The range of HSI is likely between 22900 and 23400 in coming days. Performance of China Plays will be the key factor for the market direction.
- Asia Markets: Sydney, Shanghai stocks rise, but Mumbai falls (marketwatch.com)
- Asia Markets: Asian stocks fall on euro-zone debt worries (marketwatch.com)
- Asia Stocks to Watch: China Mobile’s price cut won’t stop share slide (marketwatch.com)
Express Morning Briefing Market Summary ( 13 / 5 / 2011 )
HSI Support : 23000 Resistance : 23500 CEI Support : 12800 Resistance : 13070 Market opens higher as the scenario improves. Hang Seng Index bounced dramatically as money worked in the market. After a dramatic rebound, Hang Seng Index closed higher. It eventually finished at 23276, up 203 points. The turnover of HSI Constituents is $19.7 billion as the total market turnover is $65.0 billion. Recent rallies will probably be short-lived if the turnover of HSI Constituents remains thin. By Technical Analysis, 10-day moving average is now at 23387. 50-day moving average is at 23467. It stays in a typical consolidation as it hovers below 50-day moving average. In the meantime, RSI-14 is 43. It hovers below the 50-mark level, which suggests to staying on weak side. Analyzing the medium-term market trend, the previous low ( 29/3/2011 ) is at 22965 while the recent high ( 8/4/2011 ) is 24468. Measuring from the recent high, Fibonacci 0.618 retracement is now at 23539. Meanwhile, it hovers below the 0.618 retracement, and stays in a typical consolidation. The range of HSI is likely between 23000 and 23500 in coming days. In the meantime, CEI finally ended at 12894, up 98 points. In the major cycle market movement, the long-term high ( 8/11/2010 ) is 14219 as the recent low ( 11/2/2011 ) is at 11929. Measuring from the recent low, Fibonacci 0.382 retracement is 12803. 0.500 rebound from the bottom is 13074. It recoups the 0.382 retracement, and noses 0.5 retracement. The range of CEI is likely between 12800 and 13070 in near term.
- Hong Kong falls as resource shares, HSBC decline (marketwatch.com)
- S&P Volatility and the Silver Sell-off (engineerseye.wordpress.com)
- Hang Seng Index adds AIA, dumps Foxconn (marketwatch.com)
- EUR/USD: Set for deeper retrace to 1.3905, and possibly 1.3660 (forexlive.com)
- Fibbonacci Arcs Have Been Playing a Major Role in Hindalco (stockinv.wordpress.com)
- Long FTSE (tradingtrends.wordpress.com)
- Hong Kong; Industrial Goods & Services (online.wsj.com)
- Fibonacci Rules – Sometimes, the Old Ways Are the Best! (philstockworld.com)
Dar Wong Analysis: EUR & GBP Bergerak Tandem, Profit-Taking Menanti
Emas2 Mei 2011Minggu ini Dar Wong menengarai EUR/USD bergerak licin di area resisten atas 1.4880, namun penurunan bisa terjadi kapan saja. Demikian juga GBP/USD yang terlihat “mendua” akibat sentimen yang beredar.
Sementara itu Emas terdorong ke high baru ke 1569.10 jumat (29/04) lalu. Walaupun masih naik, namun Dar Wong melihat Emas akan segera dihadang profit-taking di kisaran 1600.00.
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