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Posts tagged “Support and resistance

Gold Could Dip to Support Below 1580


By Jamie Saettele,

26 July 2011 15:15 GMT

300 Minute Bars

eliottWaves_gold_2_body_gold.png, Gold Could Dip to Support Below 1580

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Focus remains on the long term (multiyear) trendline, which is at 1681 this week (increases about $5 a week). A traditional measuring technique reveals a longer term objective of 1692.05 (adding width of consolidation to breakout level). Short term momentum considerations (divergence) and the latest rally possibly being from a triangle warn of a drop into support from current levels. Support is 1575 and 1555.


Gold and Currencies Correlations at Record on US Dollar Risk


Gold and Currencies Correlations at Record on US Dollar Risk

By David Liu, 15 July 2011 02:36 GMT

The following table includes the correlation between gold and the most popular currency pairs over various timeframes. A value close to +1 indicates a strong positive relationship between gold and the pair, while a value close to -1 indicates a strong negative relationship. Colored values indicate week-to-week changes of over 30%.

———————————————————————————————————————————

Gold USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF
3 Day 15 Min -0.94 0.91 0.90 0.91 0.94 -0.85 -0.91
1 Week 60 Min -0.46 0.18 0.44 -0.07 0.62 -0.92 -0.94
2 Week 60 Min -0.36 0.12 0.24 0.05 -0.24 -0.41 0.44
1 Month Daily -0.26 0.18 0.32 -0.66 0.12 0.50 -0.52

Weekly Commentary: Short term correlations with gold and dollar pairs rose to the highest in recent history as Moody’s threatened to downgrade US government treasury pending the ongoing debt scuffle in the House of Representatives. The fear that the safest asset in the world may lose its status hurt the dollar on all sides as investors flocked to both foreign currencies and precious metals.

For more about the debt ceiling and what it means for the dollar, please refer to this analysis.

On a longer term outlook, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc gained in tandem with the yellow metal, showing increased safe haven demand. Fundamental problems this week ranging from a possible contagion of the European debt crisis to Italy to the possible US debt downgrade induced further flights to safety. Despite the record flows, markets are looking forward to second quarter earnings next week and a possible conclusion to the debt fight.

Gold-Forex_Correlations_07152011_body_Picture_1.png, Gold and Currencies Correlations at Record on US Dollar RiskGold-Forex_Correlations_07152011_body_Picture_2.png, Gold and Currencies Correlations at Record on US Dollar RiskPlease note: Chart uses franc rate as CHFUSD to show safety correlation with gold.

Gold-Forex_Correlations_07152011_body_Picture_3.png, Gold and Currencies Correlations at Record on US Dollar RiskGold-Forex_Correlations_07152011_body_Picture_4.png, Gold and Currencies Correlations at Record on US Dollar RiskWritten by David Liu, DailyFX Research


Gold Approaches Key Support Shift in Appetite to Risk Further Losses


Gold

Gold/USD • NY Spot Close 1487.14

Gold Approaches Key Support- Shift in Appetite to Risk Further Losses

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Bearish

  • Gold Could Fall off a Cliff
  • Gold Price Hurt by Haven Status as Europe Drives Confidence
  • S&P 500 Hints Doubt Bottom, Oil and Gold at Trend-Defining Barriers

With risk appetite returning to markets in full force this week, significant gains in equities coupled with the end of the dollar diluting Fed easing policies are likely to see gold remain on the defensive. This week witnessed gold fall 1.17% on the back of the 2.36% drop seen the previous week. The yellow metal now approaches key support at the 100-day moving average at $1475.

Gold’s inability to climb amid weakness in the dollar may be a pre-curser to further losses moving forward. The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar ) declined more than 1.7% this week as improving risk appetite saw traders jettison the greenback for higher-yielding growth-linked assets. Yet the losses in the dollar and advances in the S&P did not translate into gains for gold, suggesting that there may be a fundamental shift away from the metal as an alternate investment. The breakdown of these key correlations continues to suggest gold me be in a technical correction as traders continue seek riskier assets.

With central banks like the ECB now gearing up to raise interest rates in an attempt to combat higher food and energy costs, the long gold anti-inflationary play will begin to lose its luster as sluggish wage growth and higher rates give rise to deflationary concerns. As appetite continues to pick up, gold becomes less of an attractive asset for traders seeking to maximize exposure to higher yielding investments.

However in light of the recent rally seen in equities, one would expect some consolidation ahead of next week’s jam packed global economic docket with rate decisions from the ECB, BOE, and the RBA on tap. The week closes with Friday’s highly anticipated non-farm payroll figures with estimates calling for a read of just 100K after last month’s dismal print of just 54K. If data next week upsets the recent shift in risk sentiment, gold could pair some of the losses seen this week as traders flock to haven assets. However, with central banks moving to curb inflation and interest rates seen on the rise, the metal should remain well anchored with risk weighted to the downside.

A Fibonacci extension taken from the all-time highs on May 2 nd and the June 22 nd peak reveals downside targets below the 100-day moving average at 76.4% extension at 1468, followed by the convergence of the 100% extension and trendline support dating back to July 28 th 2010 at $1440. If the 100-day moving average holds, a rebound sees topside targets at the 50% Fib extension just shy of the $1500 level, backed by $1530.- MB

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
01 July 2011 22:59 GMT


Gold Approaches Key Support Shift in Appetite to Risk Further Losses


Gold

Gold/USD • NY Spot Close 1487.14

Gold_Approaches_Key_Support_Shift_in_Appetite_to_Risk_Further_Losses__body_xauusd_risk.png, Gold Approaches Key Support- Shift in Appetite to Risk Further Losses Gold Approaches Key Support– Shift in Appetite to Risk Further Losses

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Bearish

  • Gold Could Fall off a Cliff
  • Gold Price Hurt by Haven Status as Europe Drives Confidence
  • S&P 500 Hints Doubt Bottom, Oil and Gold at Trend-Defining Barriers

With risk appetite returning to markets in full force this week, significant gains in equities coupled with the end of the dollar diluting Fed easing policies are likely to see gold remain on the defensive. This week witnessed gold fall 1.17% on the back of the 2.36% drop seen the previous week. The yellow metal now approaches key support at the 100-day moving average at $1475.

Gold’s inability to climb amid weakness in the dollar may be a pre-curser to further losses moving forward. The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar ) declined more than 1.7% this week as improving risk appetite saw traders jettison the greenback for higher-yielding growth-linked assets. Yet the losses in the dollar and advances in the S&P did not translate into gains for gold, suggesting that there may be a fundamental shift away from the metal as an alternate investment. The breakdown of these key correlations continues to suggest gold me be in a technical correction as traders continue seek riskier assets.

With central banks like the ECB now gearing up to raise interest rates in an attempt to combat higher food and energy costs, the long gold anti-inflationary play will begin to lose its luster as sluggish wage growth and higher rates give rise to deflationary concerns. As appetite continues to pick up, gold becomes less of an attractive asset for traders seeking to maximize exposure to higher yielding investments.

However in light of the recent rally seen in equities, one would expect some consolidation ahead of next week’s jam packed global economic docket with rate decisions from the ECB, BOE, and the RBA on tap. The week closes with Friday’s highly anticipated non-farm payroll figures with estimates calling for a read of just 100K after last month’s dismal print of just 54K. If data next week upsets the recent shift in risk sentiment, gold could pair some of the losses seen this week as traders flock to haven assets. However, with central banks moving to curb inflation and interest rates seen on the rise, the metal should remain well anchored with risk weighted to the downside.

A Fibonacci extension taken from the all-time highs on May 2 nd and the June 22 nd peak reveals downside targets below the 100-day moving average at 76.4% extension at 1468, followed by the convergence of the 100% extension and trendline support dating back to July 28 th 2010 at $1440. If the 100-day moving average holds, a rebound sees topside targets at the 50% Fib extension just shy of the $1500 level, backed by $1530.- MB

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
01 July 2011 22:59 GMT


Morning Briefing


Express Morning Briefing Market Summary ( 13 / 5 / 2011 )

HSI Support : 23000 Resistance : 23500 CEI Support : 12800 Resistance : 13070 Market opens higher as the scenario improves. Hang Seng Index bounced dramatically as money worked in the market. After a dramatic rebound, Hang Seng Index closed higher. It eventually finished at 23276, up 203 points. The turnover of HSI Constituents is $19.7 billion as the total market turnover is $65.0 billion. Recent rallies will probably be short-lived if the turnover of HSI Constituents remains thin. By Technical Analysis, 10-day moving average is now at 23387. 50-day moving average is at 23467. It stays in a typical consolidation as it hovers below 50-day moving average. In the meantime, RSI-14 is 43. It hovers below the 50-mark level, which suggests to staying on weak side. Analyzing the medium-term market trend, the previous low ( 29/3/2011 ) is at 22965 while the recent high ( 8/4/2011 ) is 24468. Measuring from the recent high, Fibonacci 0.618 retracement is now at 23539. Meanwhile, it hovers below the 0.618 retracement, and stays in a typical consolidation. The range of HSI is likely between 23000 and 23500 in coming days. In the meantime, CEI finally ended at 12894, up 98 points. In the major cycle market movement, the long-term high ( 8/11/2010 ) is 14219 as the recent low ( 11/2/2011 ) is at 11929. Measuring from the recent low, Fibonacci 0.382 retracement is 12803. 0.500 rebound from the bottom is 13074. It recoups the 0.382 retracement, and noses 0.5 retracement. The range of CEI is likely between 12800 and 13070 in near term.


Market Outlook 18 – 23 April 2011


Market Outlook 18 – 23 April 2011

Emas kembali melonjak hingga kembali terbentuk rekor tertinggi sepanjang sejarah di $1,487.8/troy ounce, naiknya Emas di dorong oleh tekanan inflasi di China. Inflasi di China dipercepat 5,4% pada bulan Maret, dan produk domestik bruto diperluas 9,7% pada kuartal pertama. Gubernur bank sentral – Zhou Xiaochuan mengatakan bahwa pengetatan moneter akan berlanjut untuk “beberapa waktu”.Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) pada 19 April 2011 akan menyampaikan pandangannya terhadap ekonomi Australia, termasuk kemungkinan tingkat suku bunga dan kebijakan ekonomi kedapannya. Pernyataan yang optimistik akan menambah penguatan bagi Aussie.MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) Meeting Minutes, pertemuan komite kebijakan moneter Bank of England pada 20 April 2011 akan membahas kondisi ekonomi Inggris, pertemuan ini akan mempengaruhi keputusan BOE dalam menetapkan tingkat suku bunga mendatang.Existing Home Sales, jumlah bangunan yang terjual per tahun, kecuali konstruksi yang baru di Amerika Serikat diprediksi akan mengalami kenaikan, sebesar 5.04M, dari 4.88M. Apabila dirilis di atas 5.04M, maka akan berdampak positif bagi Dollar.German Ifo (Information and Forschung) Business Climate, level indeks gabungan terhadap manufaktur, bangunan, grosir dan pengecer di Jerman diprediksi mengalami sedikit penurunan, sebesar 110.7, dari 111.1. Apabila dirilis di bawah 110.7, maka akan berdampak negatif bagi Euro.Retail Sales, perubahan nilai total inflasi pada sektor penjualan retail di Inggris diprediksi mengalami kenaikan sebesar -0.5%, dari -0.8%. Apabila dirilis di atas -0.5%, maka akan sedikit mensupport Poundsterling.Unemployment Claims dan Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, laporan jumlah warga AS yang masuk dalam asuransi pengangguran, dan  level indeks gabungan berdasarkan survei manufaktur Philadelphia akan di rilis pada 21 April 2011, Apabila keduanya dirilis positif, maka akan menguntungkan Dollar.Untuk indikator ekonomi global, pada minggu ini tidak banyak rilis berita ekonomi global yang penting menjelang hampir semua pasar akan libur panjang Paskah hari Jumat. Secara umum, rilis data ekonomi yang kiranya perlu diperhatikan investor minggu ini, adalah:
• Dari kawasan Amerika: berupa rilis data Building Permits pada Selasa malam; lalu data Existing Home Sales di Rabu malam; selanjutnya Philly Fed Manufacturing Index untuk indicator industry bersamaan dengan data tenaga kerja Unemployment Claims mingguan yang biasa menjadi perhatian pasar dirilis pada Kamis malam.
o Dari kawasan Inggris dan Eropa: berupa rilis MPC Meeting Minutes pada Rabu sore untuk mengetahui kecenderungan arah suku bunga terdekat dari Bank of England; data German Ifo Business Climate pada Kamis.
Minggu lalu di Pasar Forex, nilai tukar mata uang dollar masih kembali melemah terhadap sejumlah mata uang utama dunia, di antaranya karena kemungkinan masih agak lama the Fed menaikkan suku bunga acuannya, dengan akhir index dollar di level 74.820 di area terendahnya sejak Desember 2007.
Pekan yang lalu Euro memangkas trend bullish-nya belakangan ini oleh kekuatiran atas bailout bagi Yunani, dengan Euro berakhir di level 1.4426. Untuk minggu ini market range-nya akan berada antara resistance berikut pada 1.4574 dan mengarah ke 1.5, sedangkan level support di 1.4240 dan kemudian pada 1.4014.

Poundsterling minggu lalu umumnya fluktuatif terhadap dollar dan berakhir flat di level 1.6324. Untuk minggu ini, level resistance terdekat menjadi pada 1.6461 dan kemudian 1.6878, sedang support berada pada 1.6224 dan kemudian 1.6092.

Untuk USD/JPY minggu lalu bergerak melemah ditutup di 83.23 sebagai bentuk koreksi teknikal di tengah pelemahan kembali USD. Pasar di minggu ini berada di antara resistance pada 86.00, serta support level pada 81.55.

Sementara itu, Aussie dollar terpantau seminggu lewat masih kembali menguat setelah sempat terkoreksi, terangkat kenaikan harga komoditas yang berakhir di 1.0554. Range minggu ini antara resistance 1.07 dan 1.10 sementara support level di 1.0283 dan 1.0203.

Untuk pasar di Stock Index Futures, pada minggu lalu di regional Asia umumnya tertahan atau melemah dengan tingginya data inflasi di China dan proyeksi IMF akan pertumbuhan ekonomi global yang berkurang.

Indeks

Nikkei minggu lalu agak tertekan yang berakhir melemah pada 9590. Minggu ini, akan menemui level resistance terdekat di 9824 dan kemudian mulai menembus level 10,000 ke level 10325. Adapun support pada level 9305 dan lalu 8370.

Sementara itu, Indeks Hangseng Berjangka di Hong Kong minggu lalu juga tergerus, ditutup di level 23965. Minggu ini akan berada dalam range level resistance di 24460 dan berikutnya 24945, sementara support-nya di 22966 dan selanjutnya 22098.

Bursa saham Wall Street minggu lalu alami juga koreksi terutama S&P500 oleh data earnings beberapa emiten besar yang lebi rendah dari perkiraan. Dow Jones Industrial minggu ini akan berusaha menjumpai level resistance terdekat 12459 serta 13135, sementara support di level 12160 dan kemudian pada 11555. Index S&P 500 minggu lalu tertekan, sehingga market range saat ini antara resistance di level 1340 dan 1404, sementara level support berada di 1250 dan 1218.

Untuk Pasar Emas, minggu lalu secara tak terbendung kembali terus mencetak rekor tertinggi baru sepanjang sejarahnya di beberapa level baru sehingga berakhir di $1486.65/troy ounce akibat pilihan safe haven investment. Untuk minggu ini emas akan berpeluang menanjak lagi, walau perlu diwaspadai koreksi pasar, dengan rentang berada antara resistance pada $1500/troy ounce, sementara support ada di $1440.00/troy ounce serta berikut $1418/troy ounce. Di Indonesia, harganya menanjak tajam ke sekitar Rp 414 ribu/gramnya, di mana kenaikan emas global tertunjang oleh konsolidasi mata uang rupiah.

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Market Outlook


24 Februari 2011


EMAS

Libia memburuk, emas terus menanjak

Kontrak emas berjangka naik menyusul makin memburuknya situasi di Libya dan Timur Tengah sehingga mendorong permintaan logam mulia sementara perak mencapai level tertinggi sejak 1980. Pemimpin Libia Muammar Qaddafi berkeras melawan pemrotes sampai titik darah penghabisan. Emas naik ke level tertinggi dalam tujuh sesi terakhir, terlama sejak awal Agustus. Harga mencapai US$1.417,30/troy ounce tertinggi dalam 7 minggu. Emas sempat mencapai rekor US$1.432,50/troy ounce pada 7 Desember. Sementara minyak di New York mencapai US$100/barel akibat kekhawatiran pasokan dari Timur Tengah. “Emas bakal terus naik dipengaruhi oleh faktor geopolitik, ancaman inflasi, dan pengembalian investasi,” kata Tom Pawlicki, analis MF Global Holdings Ltd, Chicago, kemarin. Emas untuk pengiriman April naik US$12,90 atau 0,9% menjadi US$1.414.00/troy ounce pada pukul 1:41 p.m. di Comex New York. Sepanjang 12 bulan, Emas naik 28%. Perak untuk pengiriman Mei naik 1,4% menjadi US$33,304/troy ounce, tertinggi sejak Maret 1980. Komoditas ini naik dua kali lipat dalam 12 bulan terakhir. (By bisnis.com)
MINYAK

Kontrak Minyak Solid di Tengah Kekisruhan

Kontrak minyak mentah hari Rabu bertahan kuat di level tertingginya sejak Oktober 2008, diperdagangkan diatas $100/barel bersama kekhawatiran di Libya dan protes terhadap pemerintah disana membuat pasar dimana pun terus bergolak. Minyak mentah untuk pengiriman bulan April menguat $2.68 atau naik 2.8% di $98.10/barel di New York Merchantile Exchange. Level ini merupakan level tertingginya sejak 1 Oktober 2008 – ketika harga minyak beranjak turun dari bertahan di level tingginya $145/barel dimusim panas tersebut. (By monexnews.com)
EUR/USD

Terangkat Ekspektasi Bunga, Euro Bidik 1.3815

Setelah mengalami rebound dengan apik, Euro terlihat akan mempertahankan level penguatannya saat ini dan bertengger pada range 1.3740 s/d 1.3800. Kondisi ini terutama dipicu oleh ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga zona Euro yang akan lebih cepat dibanding Amerika Serikat. Prospek kenaikan inflasi dan suku bunga telah meredam keprihatinan gejolak politik di Afrika Utara dan Timur Tengah. Namun patut diwaspadai pasar saat ini masih cemas dan dollar A.S dapat kembali menguat jika kerusuhan di Afrika Utara dan Timur Tengah terus berlanjut dan harga minyak-pun bisa melonjak.

Secara teknikal bias bullish kembali confirm sejak harga terpantul dari 1.3525, namun perlu diingat bahwa pada grafik berikut masih terdapat potensi fase koreksi bearish kembali menuju area 1.3635. Resisten terdekat ada pada 1.3745, break di atas area tersebut dapat memicu tekanan naik lanjutan menuju resisten kunci pada area 1.3815 – 1.3860. Sementara hanya penembusan di bawah 1.3740 dapat mengubah bias harian menjadi bearish menuju area support 1.3700 dan 1.3635. (By monexnews.com)

Resistance Level            : 1.3745, 1.3815, 1.3860 (tertinggi 2 Feb)

Support Level                : 1.3740,1.3700, 1.3635

Trading Range               : 1.3700– 1.3815

Trend                            : Bullish


Teknikal: Pecah Tren Channel, Picu EUR Bearish


Jumat, 04 Februari 2011 11:47 WIB
Pasca hasil keputusan suku bunga ECB, Euro saat ini bercokol di kisaran pelemahannya di area 1.3630an setelah kemarin merosot tajam.
Isi dari pernyataan Presiden Bank Sentral Eropa Jean-Claude Trichet telah memadamkan harapan atas kenaikan suku bunga zona Eropa sehingga kontan hal ini membatasi harapan penguatan Euro lebih lanjut.
Secara teknikal pada grafik berikut terlihat EURUSD telah menembus dibawah tren channel bullish yang mengindikasikan potensi fase koreksi bearish selanjutnya menuju area 1.3570, sebelum melanjutkan menguji area support 1.3500 dalam jangka pendek.
Sementara bila masih memiliki momentum penguatan, level resisten terdekat ada pada 1.3680, break diatas area tersebut dapat memicu tekanan bullish lanjutan untuk melanjutkan pergerakan menuju target 1.3750 hingga 1.3800.
Resistance Level : 1.3680, 1.3750, 1.3800
Support Level : 1.3570, 1.3540, 1.3500
Trading Range : 1.3500– 1.3680
Trend                       : Bearish
Grafik EURUSD, Sumber MonexTrader


Nikkei: Rawan Koreksi, Bidik Support 10520


Jumat, 04 Februari 2011 10:47 WIB
Indeks Nikkei Jepang melejit di hari Jumat lagi-lagi karena optimisme pasar terhadap pemulihan ekonomi A.S, sementara merger dua perusahaan baja domestik ternama turut memberikan dorongan terhadap restrukturisasi dan konsolidasi bagi sektor perusahaan Jepang.
Namun secara teknikal indeks Nikkei yang dibuka dengan gap-up tajam, rawan terhadap aksi profit taking seiring harga telah berada di level jenuh (overbought).
Secara umum bias Nikkei berubah menjadi bullish setelah dibuka dengan gap-up tajam, dan dibutuhkan break keatas area 10605 untuk memicu tekanan bullish lanjutan menuju 10650 atau bahkan area 10700.
Namun seperti terlihat pada grafik berikut, Nikkei sangat rawan dengan terjadinya koreksi karena harga sudah cukup overbought. Maka level 10520 telah menjadi support terdekat kuat, break dibawah area ini akan mempercepat pergerakan bearish menuju area 10450 – 10400.
Resistance Level : 10605, 10650, 10700
Support Level : 10520, 10480, 10400
Trading Range : 10450 – 10555
Trend : Berpotensi Koreksi
Grafik Indeks Nikkei

Teknikal: Rally, EUR Terus Bidik $1.4000


Rabu, 02 Februari 2011 11:25 WIB
Mata uang tunggal Euro melejit untuk rally di hari ke-3nya di hari Rabu terbawa oleh penguatan major currencies lainnya terutama berkat tajamnya kenaikkan angka sektor manufaktur dunia serta meredanya kekhawatiran terhadap masalah politik di Mesir.
Setelah berhasil tembus melewati resisten terkuat 1.3820 (tertinggi 11 Nov 2010), secara teknikal EUR masih terlihat bullish menuju 1.3900 dalam jangka pendek sebelum menguji area 1.4000.
Level support terdekat berada pada 1.3810 diikuti dengan 1.3740. Namun selama harga masih berada diatas 1.3500, outlook utama tetap bullish. Perlu diperhatikan kekacauan politik di Mesir bagaikan bom waktu yang dapat memicu sentimen hindar resiko dan melemahkan euro.
Resistance Level : 1.3900, 1.3950, 1.4000
Support Level : 1.3810, 1.3740, 1.3670
Trading Range : 1.3740– 1.4000
Trend                    : Bullish
Grafik EURUSD, MonexTrader