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Posts tagged “Standard & Poor’s

Market Outlook Today


MINYAK

Komoditi Minyak dunia kembali ditransaksikan merosot di New York dengan demikian penurunan harga minyak sudah terjadi selama 3 hari berturut-turut. Penurunan harga minyak terjadi setelah Standard & Poor’s memangkas peringkat utang Italia ke level A dengan outlook negatif. Jika terjadi kolaps pada perekonomian Eropa hal tersebut kemungkinan akan menyebabkan perlambatan pertumbuhan di AS. Hal itu bisa menyebabkan resesi global yang akan memangkas permintaan energi secara signifikan.

EMAS

Komoditi Emas merosot sebesar 1,8% terhadap dollar AS ke level $1778.55/troy ounce pada perdagangan kemarin seiring kalah pamornya sebagai aset safe haven dibanding obligasi dan dollar AS ditengah semakin berkembangnya kekhawatiran pada krisis Uni Eropa, investor cenderung mengalirkan investasinya pada aset yang lebih likuid dibanding aset alternatif seperti Emas. Pelemahan bursa saham global juga tak kunjung memberikan dukungan penguatan Emas secara signifikan, hal tersebut ditengarai karena maraknya aksi ambil untung terhadap Emas untuk menutupi kerugian investor pada instrumen investasi lain seperti saham dan mata uang. Kemungkinan sikap wait and see para pelaku pasar Emas menjelang rilis hasil sidang FOMC besok Kamis dini hari 22 September 01.15 WIB. Di perkirakan saat ini The Fed akan kembali melakukan upaya pelonggaran moneter meskipun disisi lain akan mempertahankan nilai tukar dollar yang kuat.

EUR/USD

Mata uang tunggal Eropa merosot pada perdagangan kemarin setelah para pejabat Eropa mengakhiri pertemuan akhir minggu mereka tanpa menghasilkan persetujuan atau kesepakatan baru untuk mengatasi krisis utang kawasan zona Euro, sehingga menambah kekhawatiran mengenai kemungkinan default utang Yunani dapat menular ke negara‐negara zona Euro lainnya. Kekhawatiran terhadap krisis utang Eropa dan prospek suram perekonomian AS telah mendorong investor menjauhi aset‐aset beresiko dan mengalihkan investasi mereka kedalam Treasuries dan dolar, dimana dolar telah melonjak lebih dari 1% terhadap 6 mata uang rival utamanya.

NIKKEI

Bursa saham Jepang padap perdagangan di hari Selasa pagi indeks-indeks acuan di bursa saham mengalami penurunan sehingga mendorong indeks mengalami penurunan untuk pertama kalinya dalam tiga hari belakangan, bursa saham Jepang tertekan setelah saham Wall Street ditutup di teritori negatif seiring dengan makin tingginya kekhawatiran mengenai kemungkinan kebangkrutan Yunani. Anjloknya bursa saham Jepang juga turut dipicu oleh menguatnya mata uang Yen ke posisi tertinggi dalam 10 tahun terhadap Euro. Saham eksportir mengalami tekanan jual yang besar seiring dengan apresiasi mata uang Yen tersebut. Di perkirakan Indeks Berjangka Nikkei pada perdagangan hari ini akan mengalami peningkatan tapi terbatas.

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Crude Oil Set to Fall with S&P 500, Gold Gains on Safe-Haven Demand


By Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist

08 August 2011 11:01 GMT

Talking Points

  • Crude Oil Sinks, Following S&P 500 Amid Risk Aversion
  • Gold Proves Above $1700 Figure on Safe-Haven Demand

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $86.88 // +0.25 // +0.29%

Crude is firmly anchored to overall risk appetite trends, with the correlation between the WTI contract and the S&P 500 at the highest in nine months (0.78). Needless to say, this points the way lower as futures tracking the benchmark stock index trade down over 2.5 percent ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street. The selloff reflects traders’ interpretation of the Standard and Poor’s downgrade of the US credit rating in terms of its implications for the altering faltering global recovery, worrying it bring higher borrowing costs and amount to yet another headwind for the world’s top economy.

Prices broke below support at the bottom of a long-term rising channel set from the March 2009 low set in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. As with the S&P 500, a bounce to relieve increasingly oversold conditions seems reasonable in the near term. Near-term Fibonacci resistance lines up at $90.88. Alternatively, a sustained break through current support at $85.25 exposes $78.29.

Crude_Oil_Set_to_Fall_with_SP_500_Gold_Gains_on_Safe-Haven_Demand_body_Picture_3.png, Crude Oil Set to Fall with S&P 500, Gold Gains on Safe-Haven Demand

Spot Gold (NY Close): 1663.80 // +17.28 // +1.05%

Gold is understandably pushing higher, boosted by safe-haven demand as global slowdown fears are compounded in the wake of the S&P downgrade of the US credit rating. Indeed, seems particularly attractive when compared to anti-risk paper currency alternatives, facing no official intervention (as with the Franc and Yen) or a looming threat of renewed quantitative easing (as with the US Dollar ahead of Tuesday’s FOMC meeting).

Technical positioning is not quite as rosy however. Prices gapped above major resistance at a rising channel top in place since mid-May 2010, pointing to acceleration in the uptrend and exposing the measured target at $1745.97, but signs of negative RSI divergence warn that bullish momentum is waning and a blow-off top may be in progress. Near-term support stands at $1682.67, the 76.4% Fibonacci extension level.

Crude_Oil_Set_to_Fall_with_SP_500_Gold_Gains_on_Safe-Haven_Demand_body_Picture_4.png, Crude Oil Set to Fall with S&P 500, Gold Gains on Safe-Haven Demand

Spot Silver (NY Close): $38.35 // -0.56 // -1.43%

A would-be bullish breakout was quickly overturned, with prices once again testing the rising trend line set from the late-June low. As with gold, safe-haven demand is underpinning the cheaper metal but the correlation between the two metals is on the wane, perhaps alluding to its inferior liquidity parameters. Near-term support stands at $38.88, while resistance lines at $40.17.

Crude_Oil_Set_to_Fall_with_SP_500_Gold_Gains_on_Safe-Haven_Demand_body_Picture_5.png, Crude Oil Set to Fall with S&P 500, Gold Gains on Safe-Haven Demand

 

 


Gold & Silver – Daily Outlook August 8


Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 08.08.2011

The level of volatility in the financial markets is very high over the weekend news of Standard and Poor’s downgrading the US credit rating ; ECB signaled yesterday it will purchase Italian and Spanish bonds in an attempt to cool down the markets. Today, the Chinese inflation rate for July will be published.

Let’s examine the precious metals market for today, August 8 th :

Gold fell again on Friday by 0.43% and reached $1,651. Silver sharply declined by 3.09% to $38.21.

During August, gold price increased by 1.3% and silver fell by 4.7%.

The chart below shows the normalized gold and silver (July 12 th 2011=100). As seen below, gold and silver rose very rapidly during the first few days in August, but then they have changed direction and declined in the last couple of days.

Guest_Commentary_Gold_Silver_Daily_Outlook_08.08.2011_body_Gold_prices_forecast__silver_price_outlook_2011_August_8.png, Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver - Daily Outlook 08.08.2011

S&P Downgrade Ramifications

The rumors of Standard and Poor’s downgrading the US credit rating from AAA to +AA eventually came true as S&P announced it over the weekend. The rumors that floated during last week are probably among the reasons for the sharp falls in Major Stock Markets during the second half of last week. This suggests that there will likely to be a negative reaction to the markets. Gold and silver will probably play the safe heaven card and the demand for them will rise resulting in price hikes during the day.

S&P also kept a “negative” outlook on US credit rating, and claimed it may further downgrade it again within the next couple of years.

The US Treasury Department already attacked the S&P decision to downgrade and pointed out to the mistake S&P made in its projected US government debt of $2 trillion over 10 years; this means the US public debt projection is more stabile than S&P had initially calculated.

Italian and Spanish Bond Problems

The debt crisis in Europe continues to spread and recently it came to Italy’s doorstep. Yesterday, the European Central Bank‘s President Jean- Claude Trichet signaled he is willing to purchase Italian and Spanish bonds in an attempt to curb the market instability, after they had failed to sell its bonds. In return, Berlusconi pledged to make drastic cuts to the Italian government budget. The Euro to US dollar already started the market trading on a rise . This news might have curbed some of the gains in gold and silver prices had it not reacted so dramatically to the news of the S&P downgrade.

USD/ Gold & Silver– August Update

The Euro/ USD exchange rate sharply inclined on Friday by 1.34%; the USD also depreciated against other currencies including the YEN. If the USD will continue to depreciate during the day, this might continue to affect the recent rally of gold and silver. During August there has been a strong correlation between bullion prices and Euro/ USD , USD/CAD and USD/YEN. These correlations however should be taken with a grain of salts as they are not significant (due to very few samples).

Guest_Commentary_Gold_Silver_Daily_Outlook_08.08.2011_body_Correlation_Gold__Silver_Prices__major_currencies_Euro_to_US_dollar_August_2011.png, Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver - Daily Outlook 08.08.2011

Gold and Silver Outlook:

Gold and silver started the week with very sharp gains after they had declined in the past couple of business days. The news of the US downgrade will probably push traders from US Treasury bills towards gold and silver; the Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow will also be among the factors that could raise the level of anxiety in the markets that will benefit gold and silver traders; this trend however is likely to dissipate very in the next few days and then gold and silver prices will stabilize and resume their slower upward trend.

For further reading: Gold and silver prices outlook for August 2011

Lior Cohen , M.A. commodities analyst and blogger at Trading NRG.

By: Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst for Trading NRG


FOREX: Dollar Can’t Recover Ground on Holiday Trading Conditions


TODAY FOREX ANALYSIS

  • Dollar Can’t Recover Ground on Holiday Trading Conditions
  • Euro: Positive Turn in Greece Funding Curbed by Another S&P Warning
  • Australian Dollar Misses Risk Run, Moving on to RBA Decision
  • British Pound Marks a Slow Start to an Event-Heavy Week
  • Swiss Franc Tumbling Quickly as Specific Safe Haven Appeal Fades
  • Japanese Yen Fortified by BoJ’s Positive Outlook, Eased Political Pressure
  • Gold Recovery Lacking for Momentum Until Fiat Demand Weighed

Dollar Can’t Recover Ground on Holiday Trading Conditions

The opening trading day to the week was an unusual one. On the one hand, we had significant fundamental event risk headed up by the ongoing Greek bailout saga. Alternatively, liquidity conditions were distorted by the absence of US market participation due to the extended Independence Day holiday weekend. The combination of these two atypical developments was a market high on volatility but low on meaningful follow through. This is the type of frustrating mix that draws many traders into what-looks-like appealing trades that never gain traction after posting an initial signal for entry. Looking to the dollar, we can see the full effect of this market-imposed lethargy. Despite the early morning attempt to post its first bullish close in five trading days, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar ) ended Monday in the red. A look across the majors gives us clear representation of this greenback-centered weakness. Gains from the core EURUSD and GBPUSD pairs were measured but well-established in an underlying (though decelerating trend); the safe haven balanced USDJPY and USDCHF pairs were mostly unchanged but still dollar negative; and the yield-tipped NZDUSD was pushing new record highs into the beginning of Tuesday’s session.

Much of the currency’s weakness for the opening session can be chalked up to the carryover of selling momentum from the previous week. When there are is a lull in liquidity; the ability to generate a new trend is exceptionally handicapped – especially when the prevailing winds are generally backing a larger selling effort. Essentially, we should look at Monday as a write-off. Assumptions of trend, breakouts and fundamental shifts should be overlooked as they don’t reflect the conviction of the broader markets. If that is the case, we can approach Tuesday’s session as the opening trading day for the dollar. If that is the case, we can draw forward the prominent fundamental considerations that would will determine the benchmark’s bearing through the rest of the week. Risk appetite trends are still but follow through decelerated between the Asian and European sessions Monday; and it is likely to carry this breaking effort into today’s session.

Risk trends are a considerable burden for the dollar when they are positive; but they have offered limited support when negative. This speaks to an underlying truth of the greenback: that the currency is not a pure safe haven but rather a source of liquidity when funding markets freeze up. That being the case, we note that with the passage of Greece’s fifth round of financial support from the European Union, we have temporarily alleviated the threat of a global crisis. In turn, the credit markets have improved and the greenback’s primary appeal has diminished. The European-based sovereign debt issue is still the most immediate threat; but it will be supplanted through the immediate future the approach of the ECB rate decision. This will take a lot of wind out of any offensive that the dollar tries to mount on risk trend from now until Thursday.

Related : Discuss the Dollar in the DailyFX Forum , Today’s Video : ECB Decision versus Greek Financial Crisis for EURUSD Traders’ Attentions

Euro: Positive Turn in Greece Funding Curbed by Another S&P Warning

Another projected outcome was confirmed for euro traders over the weekend; and the support it is offering the currency is visibly wearing thin. After Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou won the confidence vote, it was heavily expected that the country would pass through its additional 78 billion euro austerity measures and secure the fifth tranche of its first bailout package. Indeed, EU Finance Ministers voted this past weekend to release the additional 12 billion in aid (provided the IMF distributes its own portion – which it is expected to approve this Friday). However, from here, the outlook grows a little blurry. Next Monday, the topic of a supplementary bailout package will come up again. In the meantime, Standard & Poor’s threatens to disrupt the quick-fix regime by repeating it would still see a private Greek debt rollover as a default.

Australian Dollar Misses Risk Run, Moving on to RBA Decision

Despite a buoyant start to the week for investor sentiment, the Australian dollar would close Monday out with its first bearish print in five trading days. Considering this weakness was particularly prevalent on AUDNZD, it was clear that the first sub-3.0 percent reading on the TD inflation reading in 11 months along with weak retail sales and approvals weighed the currency specifically. This sets up a dangerous RBA letdown .

British Pound Marks a Slow Start to an Event-Heavy Week

This week is heavy for UK-based scheduled event risk ; but Monday started us out with something of a mix. The economy’s housing sector took another step back with a weaker-than-expected construction sector reading and ongoing 5.8 billion sterling deficit on housing equity withdrawal. Both indicators are indicative of an important sector that will add additional weight to austerity measures and future stimulus/ratings issues.

Swiss Franc Tumbling Quickly as Specific Safe Haven Appeal Fades

The franc is quickly retreating against most of its most liquid counterparts – but is this reason enough to call a top? To determine whether the Swiss currency is indeed retreating from its record or near-record highs requires a fundamental position change. The unit is now finding much of its selling pressure through a reversal in safe haven flows from central Europe to the banking economy; but that in itself is not yet a stable driver.

Japanese Yen Fortified by BoJ’s Positive Outlook, Eased Political Pressure

Economic indicators have limited impact on the yen; and even major swings in growth potential seem to leave the currency little fazed. The real concern is changes to its place as a funding currency. Monday morning, the BoJ upgraded its growth outlook slightly while Finance Minister Noda suggested the government was backing off some of the pressure for further stimulus. These developments modestly diminish that role.

Gold Recovery Lacking for Momentum Until Fiat Demand Weighed

If were just a move posted against the dollar, then we could ascribe gold’s advance Monday to thin markets and a speculative effort to curb bearish speculation through the end of last week. However, the metal posted gains across the board. Fundamentally, confidence in fiat currency has not truly gained much traction. More interesting: net speculative futures positioning dropped last week the most since September 2008.

For Real Time Forex News, visit: http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news/

**For a full list of upcoming event risk and past releases, go to http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar

ECONOMIC DATA

N ext 24 Hours

GMT Currency Release Survey Previous Comments
1:30 AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (MAY) 1900M 1597M Exports to NZ expected to increase
1:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (MAY) -0.6% -1.4% Slower fall brings better outlook for market
2:30 CNY China HSBC Services PMI (JUN) 54.3 Survey expected to follow official lower
4:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision 4.75% 4.75% Commentary will be the most important
7:45 EUR Italian PMI Services (JUN F) 49.6 50.1 Although Italian services industries expected to start shrinking, overall composite numbers expected stagnant
7:50 EUR French PMI Services (JUN F) 56.7 56.7
7:55 EUR German PMI Services (JUN F) 58.3 58.3
8:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Composite (JUN F) 53.6 53.6
8:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Services (JUN F) 54.2 54.2
8:30 GBP PMI Services (JUN) 53.5 53.8 Government cuts, weakness hurting sector
8:30 GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (JUN) -$103M Sharply fallen as bank buys pounds
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY) -1.0% 0.9% Decline in retail sales may not stop this week’s rate decision, but may dull any further hawkishness
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY)(MAY) -0.6% 1.1%
14:00 USD Factory Orders (MAY) 1.0% -1.2% Recovery may lead manufacturing sector
23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (JUN) 2.3% Retail sales steadily climbing

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE – 18 :00 GMT

Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist 2 1.5160 1.6600 89.00 0.9345 1.0275 1.1800 0.8400 122.00 146.05
Resist 1 1.5000 1.6300 86.00 0.8900 1.0000 1.1000 0.8300 118.00 140.00
Spot 1.4543 1.6095 80.76 0.8478 0.9606 1.0732 0.8292 117.45 129.99
Support 1 1.4000 1.5935 80.00 0.8300 0.9500 1.0400 0.7745 113.80 125.00
Support 2 1.3700 1.5750 75.00 0.8250 0.9055 1.0200 0.6850 105.50 119.00

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE – EMERGING MARKETS 18 :00 GMT SCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT

Currency USD/MXN USD/TRY USD/ZAR USD/HKD USD/SGD Currency USD/SEK USD/DKK USD/NOK
Resist 2 13.8500 1.6575 7.4025 7.8165 1.3650 Resist 2 7.5800 5.6625 6.1150
Resist 1 12.5000 1.6300 7.3500 7.8075 1.3250 Resist 1 6.5175 5.3100 5.7075
Spot 11.5835 1.6160 6.7239 7.7807 1.2252 Spot 6.2607 5.1288 5.3407
Support 1 11.5200 1.5040 6.5575 7.7490 1.2145 Support 1 6.0800 5.1050 5.3040
Support 2 11.4400 1.4725 6.4295 7.7450 1.2000 Support 2 5.8085 4.9115 4.9410

INTRA-DAY PIVOT POINTS 18:00 GMT

Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist 2 1.4621 1.6188 81.19 0.8521 0.9639 1.0821 0.8333 118.12 130.44
Resist 1 1.4582 1.6142 80.97 0.8500 0.9623 1.0776 0.8313 117.78 130.21
Pivot 1.4539 1.6094 80.76 0.8481 0.9601 1.0745 0.8290 117.41 129.94
Support 1 1.4500 1.6048 80.54 0.8460 0.9585 1.0700 0.8270 117.07 129.72
Support 2 1.4457 1.6000 80.33 0.8441 0.9563 1.0669 0.8247 116.70 129.45

INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

\ Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist. 3 1.4724 1.6251 81.56 0.8574 0.9693 1.0868 0.8401 119.01 131.47
Resist. 2 1.4679 1.6212 81.36 0.8550 0.9672 1.0834 0.8374 118.62 131.10
Resist. 1 1.4634 1.6173 81.16 0.8526 0.9650 1.0800 0.8346 118.23 130.73
Spot 1.4543 1.6095 80.76 0.8478 0.9606 1.0732 0.8292 117.45 129.99
Support 1 1.4452 1.6017 80.36 0.8430 0.9562 1.0664 0.8238 116.67 129.24
Support 2 1.4407 1.5978 80.16 0.8406 0.9540 1.0630 0.8210 116.28 128.87
Support 3 1.4362 1.5939 79.96 0.8382 0.9519 1.0596 0.8183 115.89 128.50

v

Written by: John Kicklighter , Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive John’s reports via email or to submit Questions or Comments about an article; email jkicklighter@dailyfx.com

The information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but of which we have not independently verified. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these materials. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages, including without limitation losses, lost revenues, or lost profits that may result from these materials. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
05 July 2011 00:30 GMT


Dow, S&P Akhiri Penurunan Beruntun


Sabtu, 18 Juni 2011 04:32 WIB
TODAY’S ANALYSIS STOCK INDEX

Dow dan S&P ditutup naik ditengah sesi perdagangan yang sepi di hari Jumat, mengakhiri penurunan selama 6 pekan berturut-turut, terdorong oleh berita semakin dekatnya bailout untuk Yunani. Namun penurunan pada sektor teknologi menekan Nasdaq turun. “Menurutku penurunan sebesar 7% belum menjadi penentuan, ini adalah waktu yang sulit untuk melakukan trading,” ucap Randy Frederick direktur Trading dan Derivatives pada Charles Schwab. ““Di kuartal ketiga dan keempat, akan ada rebounf,” ucapnya. “Ketika QE2 berakhir, butuh beberapa minggu bagi investor untuk kembali optimis pada pasar dan bagis pasar untuk berbalik naik. Jika pasar dapat mempertahankan level saat ini, itu akan memberikan optimisme untuk berdiri sendiri.”

Merkel dan Sarkozy mengatakan mereka ebrsatu mendukung paket bantuan baru untuk Yunani yang akan mengikutsertakan sektor swasta dalam basis yang disebut “Vienna Initiative.” Berita data setelah Perdana Menteri Yunani menunjuk Evangelos Venizelos sebagai Menteri Keuangan menggantikan George Papaconstantinou. Sementara itu, Moody’s mengatakan sedang mengawasi Italia atas kemungkinan downgrade peringkat hutang, mengingat lemahnya struktural dan kemungkinan naiknya suku bunga.
***EnglishVersion***

Dow, S & P End losing streak

Saturday, June 18, 2011 4:32 pm

TODAY’S STOCK INDEX ANALYSIS
Dow and S & P closed up amid a quiet trading session on Friday, ending a decline for 6 weeks in a row, driven by news of the approach of a bailout for Greece. But the decline in the Nasdaq hit the tech sector down. “I think a decrease of 7% has not been a determination, this was a difficult time to make trades,” said Randy Frederick director of Trading and Derivatives at Charles Schwab. “” In the third and fourth quarters, there will be rebounf, “he said.” When the QE2 ends , it took several weeks for investors to re-optimistic on the market and the market to rebound Bagis. If the market can sustain current levels, it will give optimism to stand alone. ”
Merkel and Sarkozy said they ebrsatu supports new aid package for Greece that will engage the private sector in the base of the so-called “Vienna Initiative.” News of data after the Greek Prime Minister Evangelos Venizelos appointed as Minister of Finance to replace George Papaconstantinou. Meanwhile, Moody’s said it was watching the Italian for possible downgrade the debt ratings, given the structural weakness and the possibility of rising interest rates.


Market Outlook Today


Kenaikan Suku Bunga Inggris Akan Legakan BoE Nantinya

Bank of England seharusnya menaikkan suku bunga saat ini untuk mencegah pengetatan yang lebih agresif di waktu mendatang dan membantah spekulasi bahwa bank sentral telah melepas mandat untuk melawan inflasi, menurut Martin Weale, salah satu pejabat BoE. Weale, yang telah menyerukan kenaikan sebesar 25 basis poin sejak bulan Januari, mengatakan kenaikan suku bunga lebih awal dapat memperburuk perekonomian namun bank sentral akan mendapatkan kelegaan untuk memperlambat atau bahkan membalikkan proses pengetatan nantinya jika dibutuhkan. Kenaikan lebih awal berarti suku bunga tidak harus naik sesuai perkiraan pasar saat ini untuk beberapa tahun kedepan, ucap Weale pada Finance Director‘s Strategy Meeting di London. “Apa yang akan dilakukan adalah mengurangi spekulasi bahwa bank sentral ingkar terhadap mandat inflasinya,” ucap Weale. “Ini akan mengurangi resiko kenaikan berikutnya dan mungkin dapat berarti bahwa dalam waktu 3 tahun kedepan, kebijakan moneter tidak perlu seketat yang ditunjukkan kurva yield,” ucapnya.

Emas Tumbang Bersama Komoditas

Emas anjlok sebesar 1% hari Senin, seiring melemahnya minyak dan komoditas lainnya ditengah kecemasan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan krisis hutang Eropa memicu aksi jual sektor komoditas. Perak juga turun sebanyak 4%, seiring absennya aksi beli safehaven kendati downgrade pada peringkat hutang Yunani. Emas mendapat tekanan dari likuidasi aset beresiko dan akan menghadapi tekanan dari aksi profit-taking, namun sektor fundamental masih mendukung emas,” ucap Sean McGillivray, kepala alokasi aset Great Pacific Wealth Management. Aksi juall teknikal juga turut menekan harga setelah emas menembus ke bawah MA20, level yang menahan selama 3 pekan terakhir. Emas nampaknya sedang menuju level support setelah terpantul dari levl MA20 pada $1,507 per ons.

Minyak Anjlok Pasca Downgrade Yunani

Minyak Brent beranjak ke area negatif dan minyak mentah AS menambah penurunan pada hari Senin setelah pemangkasan peringkat hutang Yunani menambah kecemasan mengenai perkeonomian dan tingkat permintaan minyak. Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services menurunkan peringkat hutang jangka panjang Yunani dengan outlook negatif, membuat busa saham AS tertekan turun dan euro memangkas kenaikan terhadap dollar. “Downgrade Yunani oleh S&P memicu koreksi dan bursa saham juga melemah,” ucap Chris Dillman, analis pada Tradition Energy di Stamford, Connecticut. Kecemasan melambatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi telah menekan minyak mentah AS sebelum berita Yunani dirilis. Tingginya persediaan domestik, terutama di Cushing, Oklahoma, juga turut menekan harga minyak. Katalis segar datang di hari Senin ketika Royal Dutch Shell menyatakan force majeure pada pengiriman minyak mentah Nigerian Bonny Light untuk bulan Juni dan Juli. Shell mengatakan turunnya produksi diakibatkan kebocoran dan kebakaran pada jalur pipa Trans-Niger.

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UK Interest Rate Increase Will BoE relief Later


Bank of England should raise interest rates today to prevent a more aggressive tightening in the future, and denied speculation that the central bank has released a mandate to fight inflation, according to Martin Weale, one of the BoE officials. Weale, who has called for an increase of 25 basis points since January, said an early rate hike could worsen the economy but central banks will get relief to slow or even reverse the process of tightening later on if needed. The increase means the interest rates sooner not have to go up according to current market estimates for the next few years, Weale said the Finance Director’s Strategy Meeting in London. “What will be done is to reduce speculation that the central bank’s mandate of breach against inflation,” said Weale. “This will reduce the risk of subsequent increases and may mean that within 3 years, monetary policy does not need as tight as indicated yield curve,” he said.

Gold tumbles Joint Commodities

Gold fell 1% Monday, as weaker oil and other commodities amid worries of economic growth and European debt crisis triggered a sell-commodity sectors. Silver also fell by 4%, in line despite the absence of buying safehaven downgrade the debt ratings of Greece. Gold under pressure from the liquidation of assets at risk and will face pressure from profit-taking action, but the fundamentals still support the gold sector, “said Sean McGillivray, head of asset allocation Great Pacific Wealth Management. Action technical juall also suppress the gold price after penetrating downward MA20 , a level that held for 3 weeks. Gold seemingly heading for the level of support after reflected from levl MA20 at $ 1.507 per ounce.

Oil Down After Downgrade Greece

Brent oil went into the negative area and increase the decline in U.S. crude oil on Monday after cutting debt ratings Greek add perkeonomian and level of anxiety about oil demand. Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services lowered the long-term debt ratings with a negative outlook Greece, foaming depressed U.S. stock cut down and the euro rise against the dollar. “Greece Downgrade by S & P trigger a stock market correction and also weakening,” said Chris Dillman, an analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. Fears of economic slowdown has hit the U.S. crude oil before the Greek news release. High domestic inventories, particularly in Cushing, Oklahoma, also weighed on oil prices. Fresh catalyst came on Monday when Royal Dutch Shell declared force majeure on oil shipments Nigerian Bonny Light crude for June and July. Shell said the decline in production caused by leaks and fires on the Trans-Niger pipeline.


AS Harus Segera Benahi Masalah Hutang


AS Harus Segera Benahi Masalah Hutang

 

Jumat, 03 Juni 2011 17:27 WIB

TODAY’S ANALYSIS STOCK INDEX

Moody’s ancam memangkas peringkat kredit AS jika Gedung Putih dan Kongres tidak capai kesepakatan pada pertengahan Juli untuk naikkan batas hutang. Pada bulan April lalu, Standard & Poor’s juga berikan outlook negatif terhadap peringkat kredit AS akibat kecemasan tidak tercapainya kesepakatan untuk kurangi defisit anggaran dan utang nasional.

Menteri Keuangan Timothy Geithner terus berupaya yakinkan Kongres untuk tingkatkan batas utang dan cegah default. Meski ia cukup puas dengan pertemuan sebelumnya dengan anggota parlemen, tapi beberapa petinggi dari partai Republik tetap menentang kenaikan batas hutang tanpa terapkan pemotongan anggaran belanja. “Saya yakin kesepakatan dapat tercapai pada musim panas ini. AS akan hindari krisis default dan raih kesepakatan atas rencana fiskal jangka panjang,” kata Geithner.

Geithner telah perkirakan bencana keuangan jika Kongres gagal naikkan batas utang $14,3 triliun sebelum 2 Agustus. Kementrian keuangan telah upayakan manajemen kas luar biasa sejak AS capai batas utang pada tanggal 16 Mei lalu.

 


Market Review Eropa


Market Review Eropa:

Mata uang Euro meneruskan pelemahan sepanjang bursa Eropa setelah serangkaian berita buruk sejak akhir pekan menyeret keyakinan investor sehingga memicu pengalihan resiko mata uang Eropa ke surat utang obligasi pemerintah Eropa yang lebih aman. Sementara pasar saham Eropa melorot tajam terkait kekhawatiran memuncak pada utang zona Eropa dikombinasi dengan hasil pemilu Spanyol yang kurang menggembirakan bagi penguasa partai Sosialis Spanyol serta PM José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero.

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Commodity Update: Oil Bearish Trend


MINYAK
Minyak Konsolidasi, Trend Bearish

Minyak Nymex pengiriman bulan Juli konsolidasi setelah naik $1.17 menjadi $100.10/barrel, menurut analisa teknikal Dow Jones. Grafik harian dengan menggunakan indikator MACD menunjukkan trend bearish, namun indikator stochastic menunjukkan bullish dan berada di level oversold. Resistance di $100.42 (level tinggi hari Jumat); jika berhasil menembus level ini, minyak berpeluang untuk naik ke $100.99 (level tinggi hari Rabu), lalu ke $104.60 (level tinggi 11 Mei) dan $105.31 (kisaran MA 55-day). Support di $96.35 (level rendah hari Jumat); lalu $95.02 (level rendah hari Selasa), kemudian $94.63 (level rendah 6 Mei) dan $92.84 (level pada 31 Januari).
Minyak kontrak Juli turun $1.00 menjadi $99.10/barrel di Globex.

EMAS
Krisis Eropa untungkan prospek harga emas

Nilai kontrak emas diperkirakan terus menguat guna melanjutkan peningkatan mingguan pertamanya dalam 3 pekan terakhir. Kekhawatiran terhadap utang sejumlah negara di Eropa menaikkan permintaan logam mulia itu sebagai pengaman aset. Harga emas pengiriman dalam waktu dekat naik 0,5% menjadi US$1.519,35/troy ounce. Kontrak emas diperdangkan naik 1,2% sepanjang pekan lalu. Kontrak emas pengiriman Juni di bursa New York juga menguat 0,7% menjadi US$1.519/troy ounce. “Inevstor membeli aset pengaman nilai setelah Fitch Ratings menurunkan peringkat utang Yunani dan Standard & Poor’s menempatkan Italia ke outlook yang negatif. Hal ini memperkuat kurs dolar AS,” kata Head of Commodity Research ANZ Banking Group Ltd Mark Pervan dalam laporannya hari ini. S&P pekan lalu menurunkan prospek kredit Italia ke negatif dari posisi stabil dengan pertimbangan risiko pelambatan laju ekonomi dan kesulitan pemangkasan utang pemerintah. Fitch juga memangkas peringkat utang Yunani. Perkembangan itu menyebabkan euro melemah 0,5% terhadap dolar AS.

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Emas & Perak Koreksi Tipis, Minyak Kembali Pulih


Emas
Emas dan Perak Koreksi Tipis

Emas turun tipis di awal perdagangan pasar Asia akibat penguatan USD, menurut dealer IG Markets, Chris Weston. Spot emas turun $4.50/ons di $1508.60/ons. Kekhawatiran atas isu hutang negara zona Eropa setelah Standard and Poor menurunkan peringkat Yunani sebesar dua notches di hari Senin “bagus untuk emas”, katanya. Perak berada di posisi yang lebih baik dibanding pekan lalu, meski masih ada beberapa bargain hunting tadi malam setelah harga merosot tajam pekan lalu. Spot perak turun 20 sen menjadi $37.51.

MINYAK
Minyak Pulih Diatas $102

Kontrak minyak mentah menebus kejatuhannya pada hari Senin, menguat 5.5% guna bertahan diatas level $102 per barel, seiring kejatuhan minggu lalu memancing pembeli memburu komoditi yang turun. Minyak mentah untuk pengiriman bulan Juni, berakhir sebelumnya naik $5.37 atau 5.5% di level $120.55 per barel di NYMEX, setelah naik ke level $103.40 di momentum penguatan selama beberapa jam sebelum penutupan. Penguatan hari Senin, yang mengembalikan harga ke level $100 untuk pertama kalinya sejak hari Rabu, memberikan pemulihan sebagian dari peralihan minggu lalu, kejatuhan dalam. Minyak mentah anjlok mendekati 15% guna menutup minggu tersebut di level $97.18 per barel, minggu terburuk dalam persentase sejak Desember 2008.

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Gold
Thin Gold and Silver Correction

Gold fell in early trading thin Asian market due to the strengthening of the USD, according to IG Markets dealer, Chris Weston. Spot gold fell $ 4.50/ons at $ 1508.60/ons. Concerns over the issue of euro zone countries debts after Standard and Poor’s downgraded by two notches Greece on Monday “good for gold“, he said. Silver was in a better position than last week, although there are still some bargain hunting last night after the price fell sharply last week. Spot silver fell 20 cents to $ 37.51.

OIL
Oil Recovers Above $ 102

Crude oil contract redeem his ouster on Monday, rose 5.5% to stand above the level of $ 102 per barrel, as the buyer’s downfall last week fishing hunt down commodity. Crude oil for delivery in June, ended earlier rose $ 5.37 or 5.5% at the level of $ 120.55 a barrel on the Nymex, after rising to as low as $ 103.40 at strengthening the momentum for a few hours before closing. Strengthening Monday, which returns the price to as low as $ 100 for the first time since Wednesday, giving the recovery portion of the transition last week, falling inside. Crude oil plunged close to 15% in order to close the week at $ 97.18 per barrel level, as a percentage of worst week since December 2008.