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Posts tagged “S&P 500

Market Outlook Today


Selasa, 27 September 2011

 

EMAS

Komoditi Emas akhirnya rebound setelah merosot dalam 5 hari beruntun, pasar mulai mempercayai kondisi perekonomian regional Eropa meskipun belum sepenuhnya yakin. Investor melihat Eropa sudah melakukan segala upaya namun investor masih berpikir Eropa belum mampu memecahkan masalah perekonomian regional, komoditi Emas mengalami penurunan dalam 5 hari beruntun seiring pasar dilanda kepanikan ketika melihat nilai dolar AS terus menguat. Akibatnya investor menjual komoditas apapun untuk memarkirkan dana mereka, namun membeli dolar juga bukan merupakan pilihan terbaik karena Eropa terus berupaya meyakinkan pasar dengan mewacanakan pembelian obligasi dan pemangkasan suku bunga.

EUR/USD

Mata uang tunggal Eropa Euro mengalami penurunan yang cukup signifikan terhadap dolar AS, Euro kembali terpukul menjelang lelang obligasi Italia dan Spanyol hari ini. Kekhawatiran makin kental mengenai merembetnya krisis keuangan Eropa ke negara seperti Italia dan Spanyol. Trend dan sentimen terhadap Euro masih sangat bearish karena makin banyak negara anggota kawasan Euro yang menolak untuk meningkatkan pemberian dana bantuan. Menteri keuangan Belanda dan Finlandia menyatakan dengan tegas tidak berencana untuk meningkatkan komitmen mereka terhadap pemberian dana bantuan kawasan Euro, dan Menteri keuangan Jerman juga menyuarakan sentimen yang serupa. Di perkirakan mata uang tunggal Eropa hari ini berpotensi melemah.

KOSPI

Bursa saham Korea pada perdagangan di hari Selasa pagi mengalami peningkatan yang cukup signifikan, bursa saham Korea menguat mengikuti positifnya hasil perdagangan di bursa saham Wall Street. Pergerakan menguat bursa saham Asia terjadi di tengah harapan bahwa petinggi Eropa akan mempercepat pembentukan lembaga dana talangan darurat untuk mencegah krisis keuangan merembet lebih jauh. Di perkirakan Indeks Berjangka Kospi hari ini cenderung mengalami kenaikan tapi terbatas.


Dollar Rate Outlook Cut by QE3 Talk, Safety by Downgrade Warning


By John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist

14 July 2011 06:42 GMT
Credit Market Previous Current Change % Change Outlook *
DJ Credit Default Swaps 99.900 96.479 -3.421 -3.42% Improving
10 Year Junk-Bond Spread 473.78 506.02 32.24 6.80% Deteriorating
Credit Card Delinquencies 3.29 3.09 -0.2 -0.20% Improving
Mortgage Delinquencies 8.25 8.32 0.07 0.07% Deteriorating
US 3 Month Libor Rate 0.245 0.246 0.0005 0.20% Improving
Total Money Market Funds 2750.77 2707.55 -43.22 -1.57% Improving
Stock Market Last Week Current Change % Change Outlook
Dow Jones Industrial Average 11897.27 12168.48 271.21 2.28% Improving
Dow Jones Real Estate Index 225.83 234.39 8.56 3.79% Improving
Dow Jones Financial Index 355.86 363.53 7.67 2.16% Improving
Dow Jones Retail Index 93 96.54 3.54 3.81% Improving
S&P Volatility 21.32 18.14 -3.18 -3.18% Improving
Put-Call Ratio 1.5 1.57 0.07 0.07% Deteriorating
Market Breadth (Adv – Dec) 0.2755 0.3667 0.0911 9.11% Improving
Economic Indicators Previous Current Change % Change Outlook
GDP (Annualized) 2.8 1.8 1.8 1.80% Improving
Mortgage Applications 13 -5.9 -5.9 -5.90% Deteriorating
Initial Jobless Claims 438 414 -24 -5.48% Improving
Consumer Confidence 66 60.8 -5.2 -7.88% Deteriorating
ISM Manufacturing 60.4 53.5 -6.9 -11.42% Deteriorating
ISM Services 52.8 54.6 1.8 3.41% Improving
ISM Services – Employment 51.9 54 2.1 4.05% Improving
Credit Market Previous Current Change % Change Outlook *
DJ Credit Default Swaps 99.900 96.479 -3.421 -3.42% Improving
10 Year Junk-Bond Spread 473.78 506.02 32.24 6.80% Deteriorating
Credit Card Delinquencies 3.29 3.09 -0.2 -0.20% Improving
Mortgage Delinquencies 8.25 8.32 0.07 0.07% Deteriorating
US 3 Month Libor Rate 0.245 0.246 0.0005 0.20% Improving
Total Money Market Funds 2750.77 2707.55 -43.22 -1.57% Improving
Stock Market Last Week Current Change % Change Outlook
Dow Jones Industrial Average 11897.27 12168.48 271.21 2.28% Improving
Dow Jones Real Estate Index 225.83 234.39 8.56 3.79% Improving
Dow Jones Financial Index 355.86 363.53 7.67 2.16% Improving
Dow Jones Retail Index 93 96.54 3.54 3.81% Improving
S&P Volatility 21.32 18.14 -3.18 -3.18% Improving
Put-Call Ratio 1.5 1.57 0.07 0.07% Deteriorating
Market Breadth (Adv – Dec) 0.2755 0.3667 0.0911 9.11% Improving
Economic Indicators Previous Current Change % Change Outlook
GDP (Annualized) 2.8 1.8 1.8 1.80% Improving
Mortgage Applications 13 -5.9 -5.9 -5.90% Deteriorating
Initial Jobless Claims 438 414 -24 -5.48% Improving
Consumer Confidence 66 60.8 -5.2 -7.88% Deteriorating
ISM Manufacturing 60.4 53.5 -6.9 -11.42% Deteriorating
ISM Services 52.8 54.6 1.8 3.41% Improving
ISM Services – Employment 51.9 54 2.1 4.05% Improving

An Improving outlook means the Federal Reserve coulduse thisindicator

to support a rate hike. The opposite stands for a deteriorating outlook.

The Economy and the Dollar

The dollar has put in for a dramatic reversal this past week as the primary points of appeal for the currency have taken a clear blow. Up until Wednesday, the greenback managed a remarkable rally that guided the benchmark EURUSD pair to a decline that topped 740 points. However, the currency’s performance with this particular exchange rate was not replicated across its other liquid counterparts. What does this say about the dollar – that its strength was not uniquely derived from its own fundamental backdrop; rather this dramatic charge was leveraged by the weakness of its counterpart.

FED_WATCH_07_14_2011_body_Picture_1.png, Dollar Rate Outlook Cut by QE3 Talk, Safety by Downgrade Warning

Considering the Euro / US dollar exchange rate is the most liquid currency pair in the FX market by a wide margin; it should come as no surprise that evidence of a worsening sovereign debt crisis in the Euro Zone readily contributed to the greenback’s safe haven appeal. Yet, this primary role for the currency was significantly diminished by the commentary from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that further stimulus may be pursued and a warning from Moody’s that it was putting the United States’ top sovereign credit rating on review. Yet, while the market reacted to both developments with fervor; neither headline was off the markets radar. Not long ago, Standard & Poor’s warned the US could face a downgrade and the central banker offered possible scenarios for both tightening and loosening policy. That being the case, should we expect dollar to sustain its dive?

A Closer Look at Financial and Consumer Conditions

FED_WATCH_07_14_2011_body_Picture_7.png, Dollar Rate Outlook Cut by QE3 Talk, Safety by Downgrade Warning

The stability of the US and global financial markets is an immediate and real concern. In the past few weeks, we have seen demand (measured through cost) for liquidity rise to multi-month highs. This call for short-term funds finds much of its genesis in the European debt crisis. With market access problems spreading from Greece to Portugal, Ireland and even Spain and Italy; we are facing a clear deterioration in funding conditions for one of the biggest collective markets in the world. A far greater threat however is the possibility of a US downgrade. With the government facing an August 2nd deadline to lift the debt ceiling or face a technical default; the market is looking down the barrel of a proverbial gun. Nearly every asset in the world is priced on Treasury’s risk free rate.

FED_WATCH_07_14_2011_body_Picture_10.png, Dollar Rate Outlook Cut by QE3 Talk, Safety by Downgrade Warning

There is general consensus that the US and global economies are cooling after their strong post-recession recovery. However, that doesn’t mean that market sentiment is pricing in this reality. This past Friday, the market was delivered a clear shock when the Labor Department reported that June nonfarm payrolls rose a sparse 18,000 positions – a wide miss on expectations and the smallest increase in nine months. The details were even more sobering with participation at a quarter-century low, the average duration of unemployment at a record high and those that want a job but were forced out the market hitting a record as well. What is truly remarkable is that the stubbornly high level of unemployment contradicts the efficacy of the government and Fed’s stimulus efforts. This is the source of the anti-QE3 argument.

The Financial and Capital Markets

Volatility is more remarkable for the capital markets than direction. Over the past few weeks we have seen a dramatic rally for the benchmarks for investor-favored asset classes shift to sharp declines. The initial run up found little in the way of tangible fundamental support; but the efforts of European officials towards solving their financial situation and rumors of further stimulus from the US certainly offered a base for bullish speculation. The turning point for the US markets was the disappointing employment report.

FED_WATCH_07_14_2011_body_Picture_4.png, Dollar Rate Outlook Cut by QE3 Talk, Safety by Downgrade Warning

Though this is just one indicator for the world’s largest economy, it represents the largest single economic catalyst in the world and it happens to be one of the primary targets of the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions. As the EU sovereign contagion spreads further and headlines of fallout from a US downgrade overwhelm investors; sentiment will maintain a dovish bearing. However, there is another factor that could offer a short-term reversal – or just as readily exacerbate fears: the US 2Q earnings season. The action begins this week with JPMorgan, Citi and Google on the docket. The following week is far denser with its releases; but we should keep a broader view of the results. If overall earnings growth is slowing; it will undermine the increasingly fragile sense of risk appetite that has kept equities near highs.

A Closer Look at Market Conditions

FED_WATCH_07_14_2011_body_Picture_13.png, Dollar Rate Outlook Cut by QE3 Talk, Safety by Downgrade Warning

For the capital markets benchmarks, we see in price a lack of conviction but a sure sign of uncertainty. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average attempted a strong run to overtake three-year highs through the end of June and into the beginning of July; but the implications of setting new highs were greater than the market was willing to approve. Having pulled back sharply from this short-term cycle high; it is clear that speculative is increasingly prevalent without a commensurate participation from investors who are willing to stick with trends. One interesting factor is the gradual increase in volume that will support a prevailing trend.

FED_WATCH_07_14_2011_body_Picture_16.png, Dollar Rate Outlook Cut by QE3 Talk, Safety by Downgrade Warning

Where we have lacked for consistent trends, we have certainly made up for it in sheer volatility. The traditional readings using implied volatility figures through options have hardly budged. That said, price action has shown a remarkable increase in activity (measured through increased tick volume as well as wider daily ranges – not to mention dramatic turns in market bearings). Once again, we have to point out the short fall in the usual volatility readings – they are based on ‘insurance premiums’ that reflect the market’s fears. Expectations for maintaining and expanding stimulus, ongoing earnings growth and unrelenting economic growth has left the market with unrealistic projections and a book of excessive risk.

 

Written by: John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


Wall Street Turun Untuk 5 Minggu Beruntun


Sabtu, 04 Juni 2011 – 04:02 WIB

Wall Street Turun Untuk 5 Minggu Beruntun

Saham As ditutup turun untuk lima minggu berturut-turut setelah data tenaga kerja pemerintah yang mengecewakan menambah serangkaian data yang lemah pekan ini mengindikasikan tanda-tanda melambatnya perekonomian. Fakta bahwa S&P 500 telah kembali ke atas 1,300 setelah sempat menembus pada awal sesi mungkin adalah tanda yang baik bahwa pasar belum siap untuk bergerak turun secara tajam, ucap Marc Pado, strategis pasar Cantor Fitzgerald. Namun fakta bahwa saham masih di level rendah menandakan kecemasan sebagian trader. “Dampak dari berita negatif di akhir ini akan direfeleksikan di banyak tempat,” ucap Pado. “Saya lebih memilih untuk sedikit berhati-hati menjelang akhir pekan dan tidak menjadi terlalu agresif.”

Saham terpukul pada pembukaan setelah nonfarm payrolls hanya naik sebanyak 54,000 di bulan Mei, kenaikan terkecil sejak September 2010, menurut Dep. Tenaga Kerja. “Data ini tidak menunjukkan adanya penguatan,” ucap John Canally, ekonom LPL Financial mengenai data tenaga kerja, menambahwa bahwa pelemahan tidak mengejutkan pada titik ini dalam pemulihan ekonomi. “Data ketika 2 tahun berjalan pemulihan cenderung choppy,” ucapnya. “Ini adalah saatnya dimana tidak semua data bagus.” Canally tidak beranggapan bahwa data tenaga kerja ini akan menjamin program pembelian obligasi tambahan atau QE3, namun rumor mengenai QE bermunculan segera setelah data dirilis.

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Market Review AS & Eropa


Market Review AS & Eropa: Dollar menguat terhadap sejumlah mata uang setelah berita bahwa sentimen konsumen membaik, dan seiring Euro yang mulai tenggelam. Kenaikan pada dollar memberikan tekanan pada saham AS. Minyak ditutup naik setelah diperdagangkan turun hampir sepanjang sesi. Sementara itu, emas turun sebanyak 0.88% untuk ditutup di level $1,493.80 pada hari Jumat. Data ekonomi hari ini adalah Rightmove HPI dari Inggris, machinery orders dan household confidence dari Jepang, home loans dari Australia, CPI dan trade balance dari zona Eropa, empire state manufacturing index, NAHB housing market index dari AS dan pidato dari Ben Bernanke. Nikkei diperkirakan akan bergerak dalam kisaran 9,510 – 9,640. EUR/USD closing 1.4119, high 1.4339, low 1.4064, XAUUSD C:1,493.80, H: 1,516.25, L:1,483.35 CO-LS C: 99.34, H: 100.70, L: 97.09. Dow C: 12,556, H: 12,675, L:12,515. Posted with WordPress for BlackBerry.


Market Review Eropa


Euro telah melanjutkan reli, menyentuh titik tertinggi 2 bulan terhadap dollar, namun penguatan masih terbatas karena mata uang ini memasuki area overbought. Sementara dollar anjlok di bursa Eropa hari Rabu seiring dengan mata uang Yuan China mencetak rekor tertinggi terhadap Dollar menjelang pertemuan presiden AS & China yang diekspektasikan pasar Beijing akan memenuhi permintaan AS untuk mengapresiasi mata uangnya lebih cepat. Pasar modal Eropa diperdagangkan flat seiring dengan pelemahan sektor ritel serta sikap wait and see para pelaku pasar menjelang laporan earning AS yang penting, diantara lain Goldman Sachs & Wells Fargo, selain itu juga laporan dari eBay serta U.S Housing Starts pada pukul 20.30 WIB.


Dar Wong : GBPUSD Bisa Ke 1.5800, Minyak Mentah Tunggu 92.00


Look after the pennies and the pounds will loo...

Image by Mukumbura via Flickr

Dar Wong Analysis

GBPUSD Bisa Ke 1.5800, Minyak Mentah Tunggu 92.003 Januari 2011Apa analisa Dar Wong di minggu pertama 2011 ?Support GBP/USD diprediksi akan kuat di area 1.5420 setelah mengalami lonjakan bullish pada hari terakhir 2010.

Kemungkinan masih ada sentimen bullish sementara hingga level 1.5800 dalam 2 minggu kedepan.Sementara itu Minyak Mentah WTI belum menemukan tren yang jelas meskipun pasar sudah menunjukkan kekuatan bullish pada hari terakhir 2010. Pasar sekarang tertahan di bawah level 92.00, tembus level ini akan membawa harga bergerak menuju area 98.00.