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Market Outlook Today

Selasa, 27 September 2011



Komoditi Emas akhirnya rebound setelah merosot dalam 5 hari beruntun, pasar mulai mempercayai kondisi perekonomian regional Eropa meskipun belum sepenuhnya yakin. Investor melihat Eropa sudah melakukan segala upaya namun investor masih berpikir Eropa belum mampu memecahkan masalah perekonomian regional, komoditi Emas mengalami penurunan dalam 5 hari beruntun seiring pasar dilanda kepanikan ketika melihat nilai dolar AS terus menguat. Akibatnya investor menjual komoditas apapun untuk memarkirkan dana mereka, namun membeli dolar juga bukan merupakan pilihan terbaik karena Eropa terus berupaya meyakinkan pasar dengan mewacanakan pembelian obligasi dan pemangkasan suku bunga.


Mata uang tunggal Eropa Euro mengalami penurunan yang cukup signifikan terhadap dolar AS, Euro kembali terpukul menjelang lelang obligasi Italia dan Spanyol hari ini. Kekhawatiran makin kental mengenai merembetnya krisis keuangan Eropa ke negara seperti Italia dan Spanyol. Trend dan sentimen terhadap Euro masih sangat bearish karena makin banyak negara anggota kawasan Euro yang menolak untuk meningkatkan pemberian dana bantuan. Menteri keuangan Belanda dan Finlandia menyatakan dengan tegas tidak berencana untuk meningkatkan komitmen mereka terhadap pemberian dana bantuan kawasan Euro, dan Menteri keuangan Jerman juga menyuarakan sentimen yang serupa. Di perkirakan mata uang tunggal Eropa hari ini berpotensi melemah.


Bursa saham Korea pada perdagangan di hari Selasa pagi mengalami peningkatan yang cukup signifikan, bursa saham Korea menguat mengikuti positifnya hasil perdagangan di bursa saham Wall Street. Pergerakan menguat bursa saham Asia terjadi di tengah harapan bahwa petinggi Eropa akan mempercepat pembentukan lembaga dana talangan darurat untuk mencegah krisis keuangan merembet lebih jauh. Di perkirakan Indeks Berjangka Kospi hari ini cenderung mengalami kenaikan tapi terbatas.

Gold Could Dip to Support Below 1580

By Jamie Saettele,

26 July 2011 15:15 GMT

300 Minute Bars

eliottWaves_gold_2_body_gold.png, Gold Could Dip to Support Below 1580

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Focus remains on the long term (multiyear) trendline, which is at 1681 this week (increases about $5 a week). A traditional measuring technique reveals a longer term objective of 1692.05 (adding width of consolidation to breakout level). Short term momentum considerations (divergence) and the latest rally possibly being from a triangle warn of a drop into support from current levels. Support is 1575 and 1555.

Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver – Daily Outlook 07.18.2011

Gold & Silver - Daily Outlook July 18

By Lior Cohen, 
18 July 2011 15:02 GMT

Gold & Silver – Daily Outlook July 18

Gold and silver kept on rising during last week, and they continue to do so this week. Today, the US TIC long term purchases report will be published; the Australian bank will make its decision on the overnight rate.

Let’s examine the news of the day related to the precious metals market for today July 18th:

Gold and Silver–July

Gold price ended last week on a positive note as it rose by 0.05% to $1,590 – its highest price level in 2011 on Friday, July 15th.

Gold rose for ninth consecutive days.

Silver also inclined by 0.97% to $39.07 – the highest price level since May 4th.

During July, gold increased by 5.5%, and silver inclined by 9.5%.

The chart below shows the normalized gold and silver (June 30th 2011=100). It shows that silver has been outperforming gold since the middle of last week; it also shows that up until gold price has inclined by nearly 6% from the beginning of the month, and silver price added 12% to its value in July.

Guest_Commentary_Gold_and_Silver_Outlook_07.18.2011_body_Gold_prices_forecast__silver_price_outlook_2011_JULY_18.png, Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver - Daily Outlook 07.18.2011

Euro Debt – Trichet says Europe to Show Determination

The debt concerns in Europe continue to affect traders as the Euro continues to depreciate against major other currencies. The European Central Bank President said that the concerns over the European debt will continue until Europe will act determinedly to overcome this matter.

He also said that ECB won’t accept government bonds as collateral in case a country will reach default:

“If a country defaults, we can no longer accept as normal eligible collateral defaulted bonds issued by the government of that country. Because, in the eyes of the Governing Council, this would impair our ability to be an anchor of confidence and stability.”

US Debt Ceiling Concerns

The US government will need to decide on raising the debt ceiling by the beginning of August; it’s mostly likely to be passed in the next couple of weeks, but in the mean time the internet continues to explore this issue. Moody’s rating agency even went one step further and suggested the United States to eliminate its statutory limit on government debt in order to reduce uncertainty among bond holders.

US TIC Report for May 2011

The Treasury International Capital presents the main changes in the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries during May 2011. In the April report, the net foreign purchases reached $30.6 billion; the increase in purchases was mainly driven by China. In the upcoming report there might continue to be a rise in purchases. If this will be the case, it might bring some confidence and reassurance to the US dollar.

Euro, US Dollar / Gold & Silver– July Update

The Euro/USD exchange rate fell during July by 2.4%, and on Friday it rose by 0.11%. If today the USD will depreciate against major currencies including Australian dollar and Canadian dollar, this might further push gold and silver up.

Gold and Silver Outlook:

Gold and silver continue to rise as they did during last week. For gold the longest streak it had in rising was back in April as it rose for eight consecutive business days (between April 13th and April 25th), which makes the current streak the longest one in 2011 so far. The concerns over the US debt ceiling on the one hand and the European debt on the other are probably among the reasons for this recent rally in bullion metals. Therefore I think that gold and silver will moderate change today, but will likely to continue their upward trend in the following days.

For further reading:

Lior Cohen, M.A. commodities analyst and blogger at Trading NRG.

By: Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst forTrading NRG

Gold – FOREX Correlations Weaken as Gold Regains Safe Haven Status

Gold – FOREX Correlations Weaken as Gold Regains Safe Haven Status

The following table includes the correlation between gold and the most popular currency pairs over various timeframes. A value close to +1 indicates a strong positive relationship between gold and the pair, while a value close to -1 indicates a strong negative relationship.


3 Day 15 Min -0.10 -0.17 0.03 0.20 0.27 0.44 -0.29
1 Week 60 Min 0.71 -0.58 0.44 -0.47 0.16 0.39 -0.39
2 Week 60 Min 0.41 -0.35 -0.21 -0.56 -0.44 -0.65 0.58
1 Month Daily -0.53 0.66 0.79 0.51 0.64 0.34 -0.57

Weekly Commentary: Correlations between major commodity currencies and gold fell further this week as developments in Europe and Greece prompted investors to sell currencies in favor of metals. Furthermore, mid-week US dollar strengthening on risks of more problems with Greek re-profiling was also met with buyers entering the metals market once more to take advantage of the recent dive.

Despite the weaker correlation between major commodity currencies and gold, the connection still remains largely intact as some signals of a US and Chinese industrial strengthening are prompting investors to enter the industrial and base metals market. Because of the tight connection between base metals and precious metals, as well as Australia’s position as a major iron and copper ore producer, the correlation between the AUDUSD as well as other currencies may improve.

Gold-Forex_Correlations_05272011_body_Picture_6.png, Gold - FOREX Correlations Weaken as Gold Regains Safe Haven StatusGold-Forex_Correlations_05272011_body_Picture_8.png, Gold - FOREX Correlations Weaken as Gold Regains Safe Haven Status

For real time news and analysis, please visit

Guest Commentary: Gold Prices Outlook 07.01.2011

Gold & Silver – Daily Outlook 1 July

Gold and silver finished June with moderate changes, but already started off July with falls. As we are entering the long weekend, what will gold and silver prices do today? The European unemployment report will be published today along with the US durable good report.

Let’s examine the news of the day related to the precious metals market for today July 1 st :

Gold and Silver P rices – June/July

Gold price shifted direction again and closed the month of June with moderate falls on Thursday, June 30 th as it declined by 0.90% to $1,496.

Silver on the other hand inclined on Thursday by 0.18% to $34.83.These changes are very modest so they continue to demonstrate a slow paced movement by bullion metals.

During June, gold decreased by 2.6%, and silver declined by 9.1%.

The chart below shows the normalized gold and silver (May 31 st 2011=100).

It shows how silver tumbled down in three steps: at the beginning, middle and near end of June. Actually, during the last few days of June, silver bounced back a bit. Gold, on the other hand, was much more stable and had its sharpest fall during the penultimate week of June.

Guest_Commentary_Gold_Daily_Outlook_07.01.2011_body_Gold_prices_forecast__silver_price_outlook_2011_JULY_1.png, Guest Commentary: Gold Prices Outlook 07.01.2011

As of Thursday, June 30 th the ratio between gold and silver continued to remain unchanged as it reached 42.97; during June this ratio inclined by 7.1%, which means that during June gold, has outperformed silver.

Guest_Commentary_Gold_Daily_Outlook_07.01.2011_body_Gold_prices_forecast__silver_price_outlook_ratio_2011_JULY_1.png, Guest Commentary: Gold Prices Outlook 07.01.2011

US Dollar Gold and S ilve r– July Update

The US dollar continues to depreciate against the Euro, following the Greek voting during the week. If this will continue today, this might affect gold and silver to incline. Nonetheless, since the Euros to US dollar is traded down very moderately, its effect on gold and silver prices might be little.

US Durable Goods R eport

Today, the U.S. durable good report will be published regarding May. This report indirectly shows the changes in U.S. demand for goods including major commodities such as crude oil. In April 2011, there was decrease in manufactured durable goods by $7.1 billion or 3.6% to $189.9 billion; Non-defense new orders for capital goods decreased by $5.3 billion or 7.3% to $67.6 billion.

This report was suggested to have an effect on the yields of US treasury bonds according to Balduzzi, Elton, and Green (2001); if this will be the case, it might also have an indirect effect on gold and silver, if the results in this report will be a surprise.

European Unemployment R eport

This report will show the changes of unemployment rate in Euro area during May 2011. For the month of April, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.9%, i.e. 15.529 million people were unemployed in the Euro Area. This figure is lower than the rate of April 2010, which stood then on 10.2%. In the EU27, 22.547 million people were unemployed during April 2011. If the report will show again no improvement this will likely to have little effect on Euro/USD and consequently won’t affect much gold and silver.

Gold and S ilver Outlook:

Gold and silver ended June with light changes and July might bring new changes; one of the key factors will remain the USD effect on bullion metals prices’; the upcoming US durable report might have some small effect on gold and silver along with the Euro unemployment report via the changes in the Euro/USD. But as we are entering the long weekend it’s likely that there will continue to be little changes in gold and silver today.

I still speculate that in the mid term gold will remain near the $1,500 mark and silver will level out at $33-35 mark.

Here is a reminder of the top events and reports that are planed for today and tomorrow (all times GMT):


10.00 – Euro Area unemployment rate

13:30 – US Department of Commerce – Report on Durable Goods

For further reading: Gold and silver prices outlook for June 2011

By: Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst for Trading NRG

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
01 July 2011 13:46 GMT

Emas Menguat Ditopang Permintaan


Jumat, 17 Juni 2011 21:25 WIB


Emas naik lebih lanjut dekati titik tertinggi bulanan ditopang kuatnya permintaan fisik meskipun trend pelemahan global masih menghantui. Dilaporkan pembelian emas fisik kembali meningkat ditengah musim pernikahan di Asia, terutama India dan China. Peritel dan pengusaha perhiasan membeli Emas untuk memenuhi permintaan musiman yang akan tinggi sehingga mereduksi faktor lemahnya pemulihan ekonomi global. Faktor positif lain penopang emas adalah kekhawatiran utang Yunani yang telah didiskon pasar. Anggota Uni Eropa Urusan Moneter dan Ekonomi Olli Rehn mengatakan bahwa review mengenai Yunani dengan IMF akan dirilis pada Senin depan, dan pada hari itu juga Eurogroup diharapkan mampu mengambil keputusan untuk menggelontorkan pinjaman ke Yunani pada awal Juli. Meski komentar tersebut cukup melegakan pasar namun rencana bailout baru masih belum difinalisasi sehingga masih banyak ketidakpastian. Berdasarkan studi teknikal, bias intraday masih Bullish selama harga bergerak didalam bullish channel pada grafik H4. Bagaimanapun masih dibutuhkan penembusan konsisten diatas area 1541 untuk memicu momentum bullish lebih lanjut menguji level resisten kunci 1550. Di sisi bawahnya, hanya level support terdekat ada di area 1525 – 1530. Anjlok dibawah area tersebut dapat membawa harga ke zona netral karena arahnya menjadi tidak jelas.




Gold Gains Sustained Demand
Friday, June 17, 2011 21:25 AM


Gold rose further to approach the highest point of the monthly underpinned strong physical demand despite the weakening global trend is still haunting. Reported purchase of physical gold back up amid wedding season in Asia, especially India and China.

Retailers and employers to purchase gold jewelry to meet seasonal demand will be high so that the reduction factor of the weak global economic recovery.

Another positive factor supporting gold is the concern that Greece‘s debt market has been discounted. Members of the European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn said that the review of Greece with the IMF will be released next Monday, and on that day Eurogroup also expected to take decisions to lending poured into Greece in early July. Although the comment was quite a relief to the market but the new bailout plan is still not finalized, so there are still many uncertainties.

Based on the study of technical, intraday bias remains bullish as long as the price moves in the bullish channel on H4 charts. However still required penetration is consistent over the area in 1541 to trigger further bullish momentum to test key resistance level of 1550.

On the bottom side, only the closest support level is in the area from 1525 to 1530. Fell below that area could bring the price into the neutral zone because its direction is unclear.

Memburuknya Data Inflasi AS Memicu Kenaikan Emas

Emas Beranjak Naik Memburuknya Data Inflasi AS

Emas bergerak naik seiring dollar bertahan stabil, walaupun ekspektasi bahwa tekanan inflasi di AS menyusut membuat batasan untuk penguatan. Data CPI hari Jumat diperkirakan akan menunjukkan kenaikan 0.4% dibandingkan 0.5% bulan Maret, menurut sebuah poll Reuters. Spot emas telah beranjak naik dibawah $3 ke level $1,504.69 per ons, kembali mengumpulkan kekuatan semalam. Kontrak emas AS turun $2 ke level $1,504.80 per ons. Spot perak menguat 21 sen ke level $34.31 per ons. Harga perak di COMEX secara umum flat di level $34.79 per ons.

Minyak Mentah AS Turun $1 Terkait Kekhawatiran Permintaan

Kontrak minyak mentah AS turun lebih dari $1 hari Jumat, tertekan oleh kekhawatiran permintaan minyak mentah global seiring para produsen AS yang menghadapi naiknya harga pompa dan Cina yang menghadapi inflasi. Kontrak minyak mentah di NYMEX untuk bulan Juni diperdagangkan turun $1.05 di level $97.92.

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Emas & Minyak Menguat

Emas Menuju Penguatan ke 4 Hari: Yunani dan Minyak

Emas beranjak naik hari Rabu, menuju penguatan 4 sesi berturut-turut, didukung oleh tumbuhnya kekhawatiran terhadap krisis hutang dan tingginya harga minyak. Spot emas menguat 0.2% ke level $1,517.94 per ons, membangun kenaikan di 3 sesi sebelumnya. Kontrak minyak mentah AS sedikit bergerak ke level $1,518.30. Yunani membantah laporan bahwa negara tersebut sedang membahas paket bantuan senilai 60 miliar dengan pemberi pinjaman internasional dan naiknya tingkat bunga pinjaman ditengah kekhawatiran bahwa negara tersebut akan melakukan restrukturisasi hutangnya tanpa bantuan Uni Eropa. Investor mengawasi data inflasi Cina, yang diperkirakan memudarkan kejelasan pengetatan dari Beijing. Spot perak naik sebanyak 0.9% ke level $38.78, seiring dengan penguatan 4 sesi berturut-turut. Perak di COMEX menguat 0.8% ke level $38.77.

Minyak Stabil Dekat $104, Dukungan Cina dan Banjir AS

Harga minyak mentah AS berkisar dekat $104 per barel hari Rabu, didukung oleh naiknya impor dari Cina dan kekhawatiran bahwa banjir di AS mungkin akan mengganggu operasional AS. Harga NYMEX untuk bulan Juni naik 1 sen ke $103.89 per barel, menambah penguatan $1.33 di sesi sebelumnya. Impor minyak mentah Cina di bulan April beranjak naik ke level tertinggi rekornya dalam basis harian, menyarankan permintaan di ekonomi terbesar dunia walaupun harga masih kuat bertahan. Persediaan minyak mentah AS naik 2.9 juta barel, sementara persediaan bahan bakar turun 1.8 juta minggu lalu, menurut sebuah laporan mingguan dari API. Minyak mentah bertahan di level $100 per barel mulai mengikis permintaan penggunaan minyak global, dikatakan sebuah badan perkiraan energi pemerintah AS bersamaan dengan tindakan badan tersebut memangkas perkiraan untuk tahun ini untuk sekitar 10 bulan.

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Kontrak Minyak Mentah Makin Turun


Minyak Makin Jauhi $100

Kontrak minyak mentah terus turun hari Jumat (06/05) setelah berakhir di bawah $100 per barel satu hari sebelumnya. Catatan tersebut adalah level <$100 untuk kali pertama sejak bulan Maret, seiring aksi jual komoditi.  Kekhawatiran pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pengetatan kebijakan moneter menjadi pemicu aksi jual. Minyak mentah NYMEX untuk pengiriman bulan Juni turun 24 sen ke level $99.56 per barel. Satu hari sebelumnya, oil turun $9.44 ke level $99.80. Kejatuhan harga terjadi setelah keluarnya data tunjangan pengangguran naik ke level tertinggi. Ditambah dengan gejala melambatnya pertumbuhan untuk kuartal I.


Spot Emas Mulai Tebus Kerugian

Spot emas kembali pulih dari koreksi selama 4 hari, untuk menguat hampir sebanyak 1% ke level $1,4888.49 per ons hari Jumat (06/05). Tekanan aksi jual perak membawa emas turun 3% pada sesi sebelumnya. Adapun harga emas di COMEX menguat 0.5% ke level $1,488.50.

Commodity Mulai Koreksi

Harga Minyak Terkoreksi

Kontrak minyak sesi Asia merosot. Pelemahan bersifat terbatas sebelum minyak kembali bertengger di level tingginya, menurut trader. “Pelemahan hanya bersifat koreksi setelah kontrak minyak mencetak level tinggi baru di hari Jumat. Pelemahan dolar menjadi faktor kunci utama, sementara ketatnya pasar bahan bakar AS dan berlanjutnya konflik di wilayah MENA terus membebani minyak,” menurut trader Hyundai Oilbank. Minyak kontrak Juni turun 60 sen menjadi $113.33/barrel setelah sebelumnya minyak naik $1.07 ke level tinggi baru 2 1/2 tahun di $113.93/barrel hari Jumat di NY. Pelemahan dollar terus berlanjut sementara EUR/USD menguat ke 1.4860 vs 1.4810 hari Jumat sore, AUD/USD menembus level 1.1000, mencetak level tinggi baru 29 tahun. Gempuran NATO ke komplek perumahan Moammar Gadhafi di hari Sabtu gagal mencapai target namun berhasil membunuh anak bungsu dan tiga orang cucu Gadhafi, menurut juru bicara pemerintah. Menurut Cameron Hanover target minyak selanjutnya di kisaran $115.05.

Perak dan Emas Tinggalkan Tingginya

Harga perak merosot sebanyak 10% diawal hari Senin, dengan harga spot yang turun ke rendahnya $42.58 per ons dan kontraknya tenggelam ke level $42.20, diperdagangan yang sempit di hari libur ini. Spot perak bertahan di level $43.32 per ons, turun 9.4% hari ini, sementara harga di COMEX untuk pengiriman bulan Juli diperdagangkan di level $44.075 per ons dibandingkan hari Jumat di level $48.599. “Turunnya pergerakan harga di COMEX sebelum akhir pekan, naiknya marjin dan libur di beberapa bagian Asia dan Eropa mempersiapkan diri untuk pergerakan seperti sekarang ini”, dikatakan Natalie Robertson, seorang analis dari ANZ di Melbourne. Para pelaku spekulasi menarik perkiraan mereka akan kontrak perak di COMEX dan opsi ke level terendahnya sejak bulan Februari, dikatakan para regulator hari Jumat. Spot emas sendiri turun 0.7% ke level $1.552.30 per ons, setelah sebelumnya menyentuh level tingginya selama ini di level $1,575.79.

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