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Posts tagged “Market sentiment

Analisa Emas


Gold Buddha

Gold Buddha (Photo credit: @Doug88888)

Harga emas masih berkonsolidasi di area yang sama. Ketidakmampuan emas menembus 1683 dan kembali terkoreksi dalam menunjukkan hal tersebut. Pergerakan harga emas seperti kehilangan momentum. Perlu momentum dari berita-berita baru untuk menggerakan harga emas dari kisarannya yang ada saat ini.

Harga kini berada di sekitar 1670an. Tekanan turun bisa membawah emas ke area trend line di 1663 yang juga area MA 200 di grafik harian. Waspada area bawah 1663, penembusan level ini bisa membuka pelemahan yang lebih dalam ke area 1650an.

Sementara resisten terdekat di 1673. Penembusan level ini ke atas membuka lagi peluang ke area 1680 an.

 

Untuk grafik, silahkan lihat di sini:http://www.monexnews.com/today-analysis/4328/emas-masih-konsolidasi-1663-1683.htm


Fast Stochastics vs Slow Stochastics


By Richard Krivo, Course Instructor

29 July 2011 18:23 GMT

One of the most widely used indicators is Stochastics. A question that is oftentimes asked in our live sessions is what is the difference between Slow and Fast Stochastics.

Below is a Daily chart of the USDCHF with both a Slow and Fast Stochastic indicator on it…Slow Stochastics above and Fast Stochastics below.

Fast_Stochastics_vs_Slow_Stochastics_body_chart_7_29_11.png, Fast Stochastics vs Slow Stochastics

In principle, the trading rules are the same…a cross above 80 with a close below 80 indicates that momentum on the pair is bearish…to the downside. Conversely, a cross below 20 with a close above 20 indicates bullish momentum.We would advocate the use of the Slow Stochastics from the standpoint that it is more “readable” since it does not react as dramatically to each price action movement, be it major or minor, that the pair may have. As can be seen on the chart below, Fast Stochastics is much more sensitive to price action and, as such, is often used by shorter term traders.Keep in mind that oscillators such as Stochastics will not “predict” trends. Rather they indicate momentum based on price action. A trader will identify the trend on the Daily chart and then use an oscillator like Stochastics to time their entry in the direction of the trend on the Daily chart when momentum is shown as being in that direction.So if the daily trend on a pair is bearish as it is on this USDCHF pair, a trader using Stochastics to enter the trade, would enter a short position when Stochastics had been above 80 and then closed below 80.

Richard contributes to the Instructor Trading Tips articles.


Crude Dip Offers Bullish Opportunity


By Jamie Saettele,

26 July 2011 15:15 GMT

300 Minute Bars

eliottWaves_oil_2_body_crude.png, Crude Dip Offers Bullish Opportunity

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The rally from the 2009 low is in 3 waves (which is corrective) and the 2 bull legs of the move are roughly equal. The decline however from this year’s high is also corrective and crude broken to a new high for the month. Focus is now on the 100% extension at 103.30. Look higher as long as price is above 93.52.


US Dollar Traders Have to Monitor Debt Talks, Euro Market, Risk Trends


US Dollar Traders Have to Monitor Debt Talks, Euro Market, Risk Trends

By John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist

22 July 2011 21:54 GMT

The US Dollar $USD IndexNY Spot Close 9457.56
US_Dollar_Traders_Have_to_Monitor_Debt_Talks_Euro_Market_Risk_Trends_body_USDOLLAR_risk.png, US Dollar Traders Have to Monitor Debt Talks, Euro Market, Risk Trends

US Dollar Traders Have to Monitor Debt Talks, Euro Market, Risk Trends

Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar: Neutral

The countdown for the US is getting serious. We have concluded another weak where the US government has failed to come to a compromise on its deficit troubles. Further creating troubles for the greenback, we have seen the European funding market (a source of liquidity costs that plays to the dollar’s safe haven status) come into at least a temporary period of relief with a massive bailout effort by the EU; while risk appetite trends have taken a considerable jump to defer that long-threatened collapse. That said, all of these headwinds will do more to anchor the currency than necessarily generate a meaningful trend over the next week.

Heading into the new trading week, the deficit debate carries the greatest potential sway over the dollar. Depending on how this situation evolves; it could have a sweeping effect over the single currency and even the broader financial markets. Yet, it is prudent to work within reasonable probabilities to interpret how this matter will influence the dollar. If our outlook were for two weeks, it would be a virtual guarantee that the greenback is in for significant volatility and even a significant trend. However, our outlook is just for the upcoming week. That being the case, the outlook is far more fluid. Considering the deficit ceiling will be officially breached on August 2nd, there is time for political maneuvering as Democrats and Republicans gain points for sticking to their guns. It is a severely low probability that this situation ends in a technical default and the likelihood of a solution before next weekend is high.

How the deficit solution impacts the dollar and capital markets is a function of what is agreed to. If the limit is simply lifted to avoid the pain of a default event, it could offer temporary relief to capital markets and the greenback in equal parts. That said, the follow through would likely be limited as ratings agencies have warned the reasoning for a downgrade runs beyond just the quick fix and to the lack of long-term fiscal plan. Alternatively, should there be proposal that targets significant deficit reduction over a reasonable timeframe through a revenue (taxes) focus, an expenditure (spending) focus or a mix of both; it could be seen as an effort to pump the break on the economy and withdraw the very stimulus that has driven confidence and capital markets since the Great Recession – which would weigh on risk appetite which adds a safe haven appeal to the dollar as it garners attention for improved outlook for stability. If we end the week without a clear solution; expect volatility to grow increasingly unstable as rumors and headlines spur fear and speculation.

Another major driver for the dollar that fits within the ‘theme’ category is the blowback the greenback bears from the perception of the Euro Zone’s credit health. This past week, officials announced sweeping policy agendas to smother the sense of crisis contagion in the sovereign and private lending markets. There were major efforts adopted; but there are also significant shortfalls. Ultimately it comes down to market sentiment. If the steps taken don’t boost confidence or if risk aversion is an engrained and global driver, the euro will continue its slide and thereby boost its most liquid counterpart: the dollar.

When it comes down to it, these more pervasive and vague problems will determine the dollar’s activity level and general direction. However, there are a few scheduled events that can stir short-term volatility and perhaps even contribute or detract from existing trends. We have consumer confidence and housing sector data; but the real market-mover is the first reading of 2Q GDP. Depending on how risk trends are behaving, the outcome for the dollar can follow risk trends or speculation for additional stimulus. – JK


Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis Further Deteriorates, So Why the Bounce?


Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis Further Deteriorates, So Why the Bounce?

By John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist

13 July 2011 04:13 GMT
  • Dollar and Equities Traders Look for Mentions of QE3 from Bernanke
  • Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis Further Deteriorates, So Why the Bounce?
  • British Pound Follows Risk Trends More Closely than Inflation Data
  • Australian Dollar Finds a Temperate Boost from Chinese GDP
  • New Zealand Dollar Gets a Second Attempt at 1Q GDP Figures
  • Japanese Yen Sees Early Session Surge But Strength Quickly Retraced
  • Gold Rally Continues, Record High Close as Financial Stability Questioned

Dollar and Equities Traders Look for Mentions of QE3 from Bernanke

If the dollar (ticker = USDollar) were in charge of its own fortunes, it wouldn’t have suffered the sharp reversal the market impressed through the European and US trading hours Tuesday. The price action through the previous trading day reminds us that the greenback is at the mercy of larger fundamental themes; and the currency will continue to find its bearings through these strong market winds through the foreseeable future. Tracking following the now-familiar correlations, the high level of market volatility made even easier to spot the dollar’s reflection of risk appetite trends. Our favored benchmark for sentiment trends, S&P 500 futures, managed to break the most aggressive decline in over a month with a sharp, bullish recover before New York liquidity came online. The unusually active overnight session lined up perfectly with EURUSD, pulling the currency back up to the important 1.40 figure that signaled progress on the pair’s bearish progress the session before. Now, with the benchmark exchange rate resting once again at this critical figure; the debate over direction and momentum are once again the responsibility of speculators.

From the fundamental side of the equation, market sentiment was guided by the preoccupation with the European sovereign debt situation – hence the intraday reversal. With Ireland finding itself sovereign debt rating lowered to ‘junk’ status (more on that below), the situation has tangibly deteriorated; but the speculative spirit would respond quickly to the quick fix offered in rumors of ECB purchases of EU member bonds. This temporary relief would turn a quick profit taking on risk-aversion position; and lead market participants to wait for the next catalyst for direction. For scheduled event risk, data did little to encourage risk trends or the US recovery. The May trade deficit swelled much more than expected to a $50.2 billion shortfall while the NFIB reported an unexpected slip in small business confidence (the group responsible for the greatest segment of employment in the country). Most notable, though, was the minutes from the FOMC decision. This looked like a write-off event after Chairman Bernanke’s press conference following the decision; but the notes proved noteworthy. On one hand, a few members spoke to the need for further stimulus should growth not curb unemployment; but there was also a consensus on the “steps” for stimulus withdrawal.

Perhaps this mixed view will come up in Bernanke’s testimony in the upcoming New York session. The central banker is scheduled to deliver his semi-annual policy report to Congress; and politicians have better access to grill than the regular market participant. Given the discussions circulating in headlines and amongst trading forums, there is considerable speculation of a QE3 announcement. That is unlikely given the steady progress of policy to this point and the trouble with eventually drawing down a larger safety net. Then again, anything is possible nowadays.

Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis Further Deteriorates, So Why the Bounce?

Having plunged in the previous two active trading sessions (and fallen over 500 points in the span of 5 days against the greenback), the euro was due for a correction. The initial tumble Tuesday morning was largely influenced by prevailing market concerns; but some credit should be given to comments offered by new IMF head Lagarde. The real buying momentum for the day, however, falls to rumors that the ECB purchased Italian and Spanish sovereign bonds after their dramatic selloff the previous day. A bid from the policy officials is a well-known temporary fix; but the hold over form this effort is certainly in question after Moody’s downgraded Ireland’s credit rating to ‘Junk’ and pegged it with a negative outlook. The immediate impact was muted; but this was the same general reaction to the Portugal incident the previous week. We now have two countries whose debt will have to be purged by high quality portfolios and a crisis spreading to the EU core. Temporary fixes won’t cut it.

British Pound Follows Risk Trends More Closely than Inflation Data

Between bullish and bearish scenarios for the UK CPI data; the latter had the greater potential for impact. That said, a notable slip from the headline reading to 4.2 percent clip wouldn’t rouse much of a reaction from the sterling. This reflects a complete lack of interest in rate speculation. Alternatively, the jobs figures could tap into concerns over the impact of austerity efforts on growth and perk up volatility.

Australian Dollar Finds a Temperate Boost from Chinese GDP

Business and consumer confidence data populated the Australian docket Tuesday and Wednesday respectively; but its influence over the market was notable anemic. Those trading the high-yield currency are more concerned with larger risk trends and longer-term economic trends. That said, a 2Q GDP reading from China (the slowest since 3Q 2009 but still 9.5 percent) didn’t seem to alter carry interests much.

New Zealand Dollar Gets a Second Attempt at 1Q GDP Figures

Last week, the market was preparing for the release of 1Q GDP figures from New Zealand; but the statistics group decided to push the data’s release back. Now, we are once again in the countdown to the release and expectations of a 0.3 percent increase in growth reflect a decent performance for the country. Yet, for a currency that has rallied on flimsy fundamentals; a disappointment can push the tipping point.

Japanese Yen Sees Early Session Surge But Strength Quickly Retraced

The Bank of Japan boosted its outlook for the economy for the second month with the commentary from its policy decision; but the downgrade to year-end 2012 GDP forecasts hung heavy. Yet, yen traders know that generated little interest for the currency. Wednesday morning, a big flush after the session rollover would expose low liquidity and spark a sharp rally. But without carry unwinding to back it up, it was quickly retraced.

Gold Rally Continues, Record High Close as Financial Stability Questioned

With Bernanke on tap tomorrow, the US 2Q earnings season starting soon, the budget ceiling countdown running, Ireland downgraded to ‘junk’ status, and the Portuguese central bank downgrading growth forecasts; there is plenty of reason to avoid exposure to the largest economies and their troubled markets. What are the viable alternatives to something as familiar and liquid as currencies: gold is at the top of the short list.

ECONOMIC DATA

Next 24 Hours

GMT Currency Release Survey Previous Comments
0:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (JUL) -2.6% May indicate rate of consumer consumption going into Fall months
0:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (JUL) 101.2
2:00 CNY Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (JUN) 13.9% 14.0% Slower production could mean PBoC tightening working
2:00 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN) 13.1% 13.3%
2:00 CNY Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD (YoY) (JUN) 25.7% 25.8%
2:00 CNY Real GDP YTD (QoQ) (2Q) 2.1% If the GDP slows, it may indicate spending will decrease. However if GDP continues to grow, may lead to continued tightening
2:00 CNY Real GDP YTD (YoY) (2Q) 9.5% 9.7%
2:00 CNY Real GDP (QoQ)(2Q) 2.1%
2:00 CNY Real GDP (YoY) (2Q) 9.0% 9.7%
2:00 CNY Retail Sales YTD YoY (JUN) 16.7% 16.6% Retail sales is usually correlated with inflation, may suggest PBoC plans
2:00 CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN) 17.0% 16.9%
4:30 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (MAY F) 5.7% Japanese industrial data could suggest demand for raw materials
4:30 JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY F) -5.9%
4:30 JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (MAY) -1.1%
6:00 EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (JUN) -0.2% 0.0% Wholesale prices expected to fall slightly, reduction may pass onto CPI
6:00 EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (JUN) 8.8% 8.9%
7:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (JUN) -0.3% -0.2% Production import prices may have little bearing on future SNB decisions
7:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (JUN) -0.3% -0.4%
8:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate (JUN) 4.7% 4.6% Newest British employment data could show weakness in labor market, possibly pointing to a slowdown in the overall economy
8:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change (JUN) 15K 19.6K
8:30 GBP Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY (MAY) 2.1% 1.8%
8:30 GBP Weekly Earnings exBonus 3M/YoY (MAY) 2.0% 2.0%
8:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (MAY) 7.7% 7.7%
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (MAY) 4.8% 5.3% Year over year industrial production expected to slow as world economy weaker
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (MAY) 0.4% 0.2%
11:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (JUL 8) -5.2% Data may point to real estate health
12:30 USD Import Price Index (MoM) (JUN) -0.6% 0.2% Year-over-year import prices expected to be driven upwards by raw materials costs
12:30 USD Import Price Index (YoY) (JUN) 13.2% 12.5%
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUL 8) -889K Energy levels expected to drop as demand keeps falling due to slower domestic economy
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (JUL 8) -634K
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (JUL 8) 0.3%
14:30 USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (JUL 8) -460K
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (JUL 8) -191K
18:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement (JUN) -$65.5B -$57.6B Budget deficit expected to widen to Aug 2
22:30 NZD Business NZ PMI (JUN) 54.7 Business survey has trended up
22:45 NZD GDP Q1 (YoY) 0.5% 0.8% First quarter output expected to be lower, largely due to Christchurch earthquake
22:45 NZD GDP Q1 (QoQ) 0.3% 0.2%
GMT Currency Upcoming Events & Speeches
5:00 JPY Bank of Japan Monthly Economic Report
14:00 USD Bernanke Delivers Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report to House

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE – 18:00 GMT

Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist 2 1.5160 1.6600 89.00 0.9345 1.0275 1.1800 0.8400 118.00 146.05
Resist 1 1.5000 1.6300 86.00 0.8900 1.0000 1.1000 0.8300 113.50 140.00
Spot 1.3976 1.5913 79.24 0.8306 0.9666 1.0598 0.8181 110.74 126.10
Support 1 1.4000 1.5935 79.00 0.8300 0.9500 1.0400 0.7745 109.00 125.00
Support 2 1.3700 1.5750 75.00 0.8250 0.9055 1.0200 0.6850 106.00 119.00

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE –EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMTSCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT

Currency USD/MXN USD/TRY USD/ZAR USD/HKD USD/SGD Currency USD/SEK USD/DKK USD/NOK
Resist 2 13.8500 1.7425 7.4025 7.8165 1.3650 Resist 2 7.5800 5.6625 6.1150
Resist 1 12.5000 1.6730 7.3500 7.8075 1.3250 Resist 1 6.5175 5.3100 5.7075
Spot 11.7927 1.6465 6.8786 7.7948 1.2252 Spot 6.5865 5.3360 5.5990
Support 1 11.5200 1.5725 6.5575 7.7490 1.2145 Support 1 6.0800 5.1050 5.3040
Support 2 11.4400 1.5040 6.4295 7.7450 1.2000 Support 2 5.8085 4.9115 4.9410

INTRA-DAY PIVOT POINTS 18:00 GMT

Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist 2 1.4183 1.6049 80.81 0.8444 0.9843 1.0735 0.8390 114.46 129.09
Resist 1 1.4080 1.5981 80.02 0.8375 0.9755 1.0667 0.8286 112.60 127.59
Pivot 1.3958 1.5881 79.60 0.8329 0.9690 1.0596 0.8198 111.09 126.36
Support 1 1.3855 1.5813 78.81 0.8260 0.9602 1.0528 0.8094 109.23 124.86
Support 2 1.3733 1.5713 78.39 0.8214 0.9537 1.0457 0.8006 107.72 123.63

INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

\Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist. 3 1.4172 1.6068 80.01 0.8411 0.9760 1.0736 0.8290 112.28 127.68
Resist. 2 1.4123 1.6029 79.82 0.8385 0.9736 1.0701 0.8263 111.90 127.29
Resist. 1 1.4074 1.5991 79.62 0.8359 0.9713 1.0667 0.8236 111.51 126.89
Spot 1.3976 1.5913 79.24 0.8306 0.9666 1.0598 0.8181 110.74 126.10
Support 1 1.3878 1.5835 78.86 0.8253 0.9619 1.0529 0.8126 109.97 125.31
Support 2 1.3829 1.5797 78.66 0.8227 0.9596 1.0495 0.8099 109.58 124.91
Support 3 1.3780 1.5758 78.47 0.8201 0.9572 1.0460 0.8072 109.20 124.51

v

Written by: John Kicklighter, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


Market Review AS & Eropa


Market Review AS & Eropa

Wall Street turun tajam untuk kedua harinya setelah investor mencari aset yang aman seperti obligasi, emas dan franc Swiss akibat kecemasan bahwa gejolak di Afrika Utara dan Timur Tengah akan menyebar. Harga minyak naik untuk dua hari berturut-turut dan ditutup dekat level tertinggi dalam 2-1/2 tahun di atas $98 per barel, seiring meningkatnya ketegangan di Libya yang mengguncang pasar minyak dan kecemasan atas suplai yang berkepanjangan. Harga emas naik ke atas $1,410 per ons. Data ekonomi hari ini adalah private capital expenditure dari Australia, durable good orders, jobless claims, new home sales, dan crude oil inventories dari AS. Diperkirakan Nikkei akan bergerak dalam kisaran 10,540 – 10,430.
EUR/USD closing 1.3748, high 1.3787, low 1.3645,
XAUUSD C:1410.95, H: 1416.10, L:1396,05,
CO-LS C: 98.97, H: 100.00, L: 95.14.


Market Outlook


Selasa, 22 Februari 2011

MINYAK
Jika harga minyak naik US$ 30, ancaman resesi global kembali mengintai dunia!

Kontrak harga minyak terus melaju. Bahkan, harga minyak kian mendekati level tertinggi sejak September 2008. Pada pukul 15.22 waktu New York, kontrak harga minyak jenis Brent melonjak 5,6% menjadi US$ 108,30/barel. Kecemasan investor akan situasi politik Timur Tengah menjadi pemicu utama. Seperti yang diketahui, pasukan militer Libya menyerang pelaku demonstrasi anti pemerintah seiring menyebarnya aksi serupa di kawasan Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara. Padahal, dua kawasan ini menyumbang 36% dari total produksi minyak dunia. “Investor dipastikan sangat cemas karena hal itu bisa berdampak pada harga minyak. Jika harga minyak melonjak sebesar US$ 20 atau US$ 30, kita akan kembali masuk ke resesi global,” jelas Bill Belchere, global chief economist di Mirae Asset Securities. (Bykontan.co.id)

EMAS
Emas Diatas $1.400 Bersama Menyebarnya Ketegangan

Harga emas naik diatas $1,400.00/troy ounce hari Senin untuk pertama kalinya dalam hampir 1 minggu seiring berkembangnya ketegangan di Afrika Utara dan Timur tengah, mendorong minat terhadap logam mulia. Ketegangan di wilayah Timur Tengah, tepatnya Mesir dan Tunisia, dimana para demonstran telah menurnkan para pimpinan dalam sebulan belakangan, mengancam kepemimpinan mereka dimana pun. Spot emas naik ke tingginya 7 minggu di $1,396.1, sebelum turun tipis ke $1,395.90/troy ounce. Emas bersiap memasuki sesi penguatan 6 sesi berturut-turut. Kontrak emas AS untuk pengiriman April naik 0.7% ke $1,395.90/troy ounce, dibandingkan ke penyelesaian kontrak di $1,388.60/troy ounce. (Bymonexnews.com)

GBP/USD
Profit Taking Jerumuskan Sterling Hingga di Bawah $1.62

Sterling makin terpuruk di hari Selasa akibat diterpa aksi profit taking dan gagal mengupayakan penguatannya meski dilatarbelakangi naiknya harapan bahwa Bank of England akan segera menaikkan suku bunga. Fokus pasar minggu ini akan tertuju pada minutes pertemuan BoE bulan Februari pada hari Rabu besok, dengan harapan ada anggota pembuat kebijakan lainnya yang bergabung dengan Andrew Sentance dan Martin Weale untuk menyuarakan kenaikan suku bunga. Sampai berita ini diturunkan GBPUSD tengah bergerak di kisaran $1.6158, anjlok 69 poin dari level tinggi $1.6227 yang tercatat pukul 07.00 WIB pagi. Sterling masih memiliki level support kuat di area $1.6100 bila pelemahan tidak dapat terbendung. (Bymonexnews.com


Teknikal: Pecah Tren Channel, Picu EUR Bearish


Jumat, 04 Februari 2011 11:47 WIB
Pasca hasil keputusan suku bunga ECB, Euro saat ini bercokol di kisaran pelemahannya di area 1.3630an setelah kemarin merosot tajam.
Isi dari pernyataan Presiden Bank Sentral Eropa Jean-Claude Trichet telah memadamkan harapan atas kenaikan suku bunga zona Eropa sehingga kontan hal ini membatasi harapan penguatan Euro lebih lanjut.
Secara teknikal pada grafik berikut terlihat EURUSD telah menembus dibawah tren channel bullish yang mengindikasikan potensi fase koreksi bearish selanjutnya menuju area 1.3570, sebelum melanjutkan menguji area support 1.3500 dalam jangka pendek.
Sementara bila masih memiliki momentum penguatan, level resisten terdekat ada pada 1.3680, break diatas area tersebut dapat memicu tekanan bullish lanjutan untuk melanjutkan pergerakan menuju target 1.3750 hingga 1.3800.
Resistance Level : 1.3680, 1.3750, 1.3800
Support Level : 1.3570, 1.3540, 1.3500
Trading Range : 1.3500– 1.3680
Trend                       : Bearish
Grafik EURUSD, Sumber MonexTrader


Nikkei: Rawan Koreksi, Bidik Support 10520


Jumat, 04 Februari 2011 10:47 WIB
Indeks Nikkei Jepang melejit di hari Jumat lagi-lagi karena optimisme pasar terhadap pemulihan ekonomi A.S, sementara merger dua perusahaan baja domestik ternama turut memberikan dorongan terhadap restrukturisasi dan konsolidasi bagi sektor perusahaan Jepang.
Namun secara teknikal indeks Nikkei yang dibuka dengan gap-up tajam, rawan terhadap aksi profit taking seiring harga telah berada di level jenuh (overbought).
Secara umum bias Nikkei berubah menjadi bullish setelah dibuka dengan gap-up tajam, dan dibutuhkan break keatas area 10605 untuk memicu tekanan bullish lanjutan menuju 10650 atau bahkan area 10700.
Namun seperti terlihat pada grafik berikut, Nikkei sangat rawan dengan terjadinya koreksi karena harga sudah cukup overbought. Maka level 10520 telah menjadi support terdekat kuat, break dibawah area ini akan mempercepat pergerakan bearish menuju area 10450 – 10400.
Resistance Level : 10605, 10650, 10700
Support Level : 10520, 10480, 10400
Trading Range : 10450 – 10555
Trend : Berpotensi Koreksi
Grafik Indeks Nikkei

Teknikal: Rally, EUR Terus Bidik $1.4000


Rabu, 02 Februari 2011 11:25 WIB
Mata uang tunggal Euro melejit untuk rally di hari ke-3nya di hari Rabu terbawa oleh penguatan major currencies lainnya terutama berkat tajamnya kenaikkan angka sektor manufaktur dunia serta meredanya kekhawatiran terhadap masalah politik di Mesir.
Setelah berhasil tembus melewati resisten terkuat 1.3820 (tertinggi 11 Nov 2010), secara teknikal EUR masih terlihat bullish menuju 1.3900 dalam jangka pendek sebelum menguji area 1.4000.
Level support terdekat berada pada 1.3810 diikuti dengan 1.3740. Namun selama harga masih berada diatas 1.3500, outlook utama tetap bullish. Perlu diperhatikan kekacauan politik di Mesir bagaikan bom waktu yang dapat memicu sentimen hindar resiko dan melemahkan euro.
Resistance Level : 1.3900, 1.3950, 1.4000
Support Level : 1.3810, 1.3740, 1.3670
Trading Range : 1.3740– 1.4000
Trend                    : Bullish
Grafik EURUSD, MonexTrader