Becoming Sophisticated About Risk

Posts tagged “Investing

Minyak Bakal Uji Level $90


Kamis, 04 Agustus 2011 09:29 WIB
TODAY’S ANALYSIS COMMODITY

Jika data perekonomian AS terus memburuk, minyak Nymex dapat anjlok ke level $90/barrel, kata kepala komoditi Mizuho

Securities, Takumi Otsuka. Minyak sedikit menguat di awal perdagangan.

“Sentimen masih sangat bearish terkait kondisi perekonomian di Eropa dan AS yang lemah,”  tambahnya. “Fokus pasar pada data perekonomian AS pekan ini.” Angka pengangguran dirilis hari ini dan nonfarm payrolls dirilis besok (05/08), kedua data sangat berpengaruh pada pasar. USD menguat setelah BoJ melakukan intervensi ke dalam pasar mata uang. Hal ini turut menekan minyak meski berdampak kecil dan hanya sesaat, kata Otsuka.

Minyak Nymex bulan September naik 21 sen menjadi $92.14/barrel, Minyak ICE bulan September naik 2 sen menjadi $113.25/barrel.


Fast Stochastics vs Slow Stochastics


By Richard Krivo, Course Instructor

29 July 2011 18:23 GMT

One of the most widely used indicators is Stochastics. A question that is oftentimes asked in our live sessions is what is the difference between Slow and Fast Stochastics.

Below is a Daily chart of the USDCHF with both a Slow and Fast Stochastic indicator on it…Slow Stochastics above and Fast Stochastics below.

Fast_Stochastics_vs_Slow_Stochastics_body_chart_7_29_11.png, Fast Stochastics vs Slow Stochastics

In principle, the trading rules are the same…a cross above 80 with a close below 80 indicates that momentum on the pair is bearish…to the downside. Conversely, a cross below 20 with a close above 20 indicates bullish momentum.We would advocate the use of the Slow Stochastics from the standpoint that it is more “readable” since it does not react as dramatically to each price action movement, be it major or minor, that the pair may have. As can be seen on the chart below, Fast Stochastics is much more sensitive to price action and, as such, is often used by shorter term traders.Keep in mind that oscillators such as Stochastics will not “predict” trends. Rather they indicate momentum based on price action. A trader will identify the trend on the Daily chart and then use an oscillator like Stochastics to time their entry in the direction of the trend on the Daily chart when momentum is shown as being in that direction.So if the daily trend on a pair is bearish as it is on this USDCHF pair, a trader using Stochastics to enter the trade, would enter a short position when Stochastics had been above 80 and then closed below 80.

Richard contributes to the Instructor Trading Tips articles.


Gold: How More High?


Gold: How More High?

My mother used to be a good housewife. She retired now since we already grown up and have our own children. She was such a good mother at our time and really put all her time to raise us. She never read any newspaper, seldom watched TV or movies. Her hobby is listening music beside cooking. She ignores all the technology  which have developed so fast. When I brought a LCD TV, she was very surprised, and said “This thing is so thin, where ‘s the “machine?” 🙂
One day, when we were having family event, when I was reading newspaper alone, she came to me and asked me something. She had some savings and tried to change with gold. I was shockingly surprised, I mean how come my mother knew that investing gold was still good. ” Do you think, it s still going up Mum?” I asked. And she said, “I m pretty sure, cause everyone else is buying.”
Weekly Gold chart
If you look at the chart, Gold has been rallying from $681/troy ounce (October2008) to $1609 (yesterday high) and it could test a higher level in days. I was trying to draw a line or a pattern, but I could not find the proper one, because the price is breaking up higher and higher. I could only draw Fibonacci Projection which the result is around 1632-1635.
Warren Buffett said, when you buy a stock, you become a partner of manic depressive fellow, Mr Market. Each day Mr. Market runs up and offers either to buy  you out of business or to sell you his share. Most of the time you should ignore him because Mr. Market is very psychotic.
There is time when he become so deppresed  that he offers you his share for a song, and that ‘s when you should buy. At other times he becomes so manic that offers an insane price for your share, that’s when you should sell.
The idea is very brilliant but it is hard to implement.Why? because Mr Market’s mood is so contagious. Most people want to sell when Mr. Market is depressed and buy when he is manic.
It is still in my mind what my mum said.”……..cause everyone else is buying”. It sounded like an alarm to me. Note that it ‘s not only happening to my family or to my office, but it is happening everywhere! Everybody  at anyplace knows that investing Gold is good now. Do you still remember this financial proverb? Buying when everyone else is selling, and selling when everyone else is buying. Are we entering this zone already? we will see in coming months.

Fed Chair Significantly Downplays Prospects for Additional Easing


Fed Chair Significantly Downplays Prospects for Additional Easing

Fed Chair Significantly Downplays Prospects for Additional Easing

By Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist

15 July 2011 04:44 GMT
  • Thursday price action fails to inspire any real directional bias
  • USD recovers after Bernanke dismisses possibility for QE3
  • S&P jumps into mix and also warns of potential US ratings downgrade
  • Eurozone trade balance only key release in European session

All things considered, Thursday’s session of trade was relatively uneventful from a price action standpoint, with markets in the end, closing near their daily opening levels. The Greenback had initially been weighed down across the board on concerns over a potential downgrade to US credit ratings, but managed to fight its way back in the latter half of the day, with US economic data coming in as expected and more importantly, Fed Chair Bernanke throwing cold water on any real hopes for further accommodation from the Fed.

When asked if the Fed would consider additional accommodation, the Fed Chair said that the central bank was not considering this as an option at the present time. The US dollar was very well bid as a result with market participants also retracing some of their moves from the previous day’s testimony when it seemed as the door was open for potential QE3 measures. However, ongoing concern over the US debt ceiling also would not completely go away, with S&P joining into the mix and also warning of some form of a downgrade to US ratings over the coming days even in a situation where the ceiling were raised. Specifically, the S&P analyst said that the chances for a sovereign rating downgrade in the next 90 days had risen considerably

Looking ahead, the European economic calendar is extremely quiet, with the only key release coming in the form of the Eurozone trade balance. But as was the case on Thursday, the quiet economic calendar for the session should be a welcome development as broader global macro forces are at play. US equity futures and oil prices consolidate their latest declines, while gold sits on the opposite end of the spectrum and consolidates gains by record highs.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Fed_Chair_Significantly_Downplays_Prospects_for_Additional_Easing_body_Picture_5.png, Fed Chair Significantly Downplays Prospects for Additional Easing

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

Fed_Chair_Significantly_Downplays_Prospects_for_Additional_Easing_body_eur.png, Fed Chair Significantly Downplays Prospects for Additional Easing

EUR/USD: Overall, price action remains quite bearish and we continue to like the idea of selling into rallies in anticipation of a more sizeable pullback below the 200-Day SMA. The longer-term moving average resides by the 1.3900 figure and a clear break below will open the door for a test of next key support in the 1.3750. In the interim, look for the formation of a fresh lower top somewhere ahead of 1.4400. Thursday’s topside failure by a convergence of moving averages just under 1.4300 could very well offer itself as a strong candidate for this next lower top.

Fed_Chair_Significantly_Downplays_Prospects_for_Additional_Easing_body_jpy2.png, Fed Chair Significantly Downplays Prospects for Additional Easing

USD/JPY: The latest daily close below 79.50 certainly compromises our constructive outlook with the market breaking down below some solid multi-day range support in the 80.00 area and dropping into the 78.00’s thus far. This now puts the pressure back on the downside and opens the door for a retest and potential break below the record lows from March by 76.30. At this point, a daily close back above 80.00 would be required at minimum to relieve downside pressures.

Fed_Chair_Significantly_Downplays_Prospects_for_Additional_Easing_body_gbp2.png, Fed Chair Significantly Downplays Prospects for Additional Easing

GBP/USD: We classify the latest price action as some consolidation ahead of the next major downside extension with the market now looking to establish back below the 200-Day SMA and extend declines through next key support at 1.5750 further down. In the interim, look for any rallies to be well capped ahead below 1.6250 on a daily close basis. Back under 1.6000 helps to confirm and should accelerate.

Fed_Chair_Significantly_Downplays_Prospects_for_Additional_Easing_body_swiss1.png, Fed Chair Significantly Downplays Prospects for Additional Easing

USD/CHF: Despite the intense downtrend resulting in recently established fresh record lows below 0.8100, short/medium/longer-term technical studies are looking quite stretched to us, and we continue to like the idea of taking shots at buying in anticipation of a major base. Aggressive bulls may want to look to establish fresh long positions ahead of 0.8000, while conservative counter-trenders will want to wait for a daily close back above 0.8200 at a minimum.

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist


Dollar Rate Outlook Cut by QE3 Talk, Safety by Downgrade Warning


By John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist

14 July 2011 06:42 GMT
Credit Market Previous Current Change % Change Outlook *
DJ Credit Default Swaps 99.900 96.479 -3.421 -3.42% Improving
10 Year Junk-Bond Spread 473.78 506.02 32.24 6.80% Deteriorating
Credit Card Delinquencies 3.29 3.09 -0.2 -0.20% Improving
Mortgage Delinquencies 8.25 8.32 0.07 0.07% Deteriorating
US 3 Month Libor Rate 0.245 0.246 0.0005 0.20% Improving
Total Money Market Funds 2750.77 2707.55 -43.22 -1.57% Improving
Stock Market Last Week Current Change % Change Outlook
Dow Jones Industrial Average 11897.27 12168.48 271.21 2.28% Improving
Dow Jones Real Estate Index 225.83 234.39 8.56 3.79% Improving
Dow Jones Financial Index 355.86 363.53 7.67 2.16% Improving
Dow Jones Retail Index 93 96.54 3.54 3.81% Improving
S&P Volatility 21.32 18.14 -3.18 -3.18% Improving
Put-Call Ratio 1.5 1.57 0.07 0.07% Deteriorating
Market Breadth (Adv – Dec) 0.2755 0.3667 0.0911 9.11% Improving
Economic Indicators Previous Current Change % Change Outlook
GDP (Annualized) 2.8 1.8 1.8 1.80% Improving
Mortgage Applications 13 -5.9 -5.9 -5.90% Deteriorating
Initial Jobless Claims 438 414 -24 -5.48% Improving
Consumer Confidence 66 60.8 -5.2 -7.88% Deteriorating
ISM Manufacturing 60.4 53.5 -6.9 -11.42% Deteriorating
ISM Services 52.8 54.6 1.8 3.41% Improving
ISM Services – Employment 51.9 54 2.1 4.05% Improving
Credit Market Previous Current Change % Change Outlook *
DJ Credit Default Swaps 99.900 96.479 -3.421 -3.42% Improving
10 Year Junk-Bond Spread 473.78 506.02 32.24 6.80% Deteriorating
Credit Card Delinquencies 3.29 3.09 -0.2 -0.20% Improving
Mortgage Delinquencies 8.25 8.32 0.07 0.07% Deteriorating
US 3 Month Libor Rate 0.245 0.246 0.0005 0.20% Improving
Total Money Market Funds 2750.77 2707.55 -43.22 -1.57% Improving
Stock Market Last Week Current Change % Change Outlook
Dow Jones Industrial Average 11897.27 12168.48 271.21 2.28% Improving
Dow Jones Real Estate Index 225.83 234.39 8.56 3.79% Improving
Dow Jones Financial Index 355.86 363.53 7.67 2.16% Improving
Dow Jones Retail Index 93 96.54 3.54 3.81% Improving
S&P Volatility 21.32 18.14 -3.18 -3.18% Improving
Put-Call Ratio 1.5 1.57 0.07 0.07% Deteriorating
Market Breadth (Adv – Dec) 0.2755 0.3667 0.0911 9.11% Improving
Economic Indicators Previous Current Change % Change Outlook
GDP (Annualized) 2.8 1.8 1.8 1.80% Improving
Mortgage Applications 13 -5.9 -5.9 -5.90% Deteriorating
Initial Jobless Claims 438 414 -24 -5.48% Improving
Consumer Confidence 66 60.8 -5.2 -7.88% Deteriorating
ISM Manufacturing 60.4 53.5 -6.9 -11.42% Deteriorating
ISM Services 52.8 54.6 1.8 3.41% Improving
ISM Services – Employment 51.9 54 2.1 4.05% Improving

An Improving outlook means the Federal Reserve coulduse thisindicator

to support a rate hike. The opposite stands for a deteriorating outlook.

The Economy and the Dollar

The dollar has put in for a dramatic reversal this past week as the primary points of appeal for the currency have taken a clear blow. Up until Wednesday, the greenback managed a remarkable rally that guided the benchmark EURUSD pair to a decline that topped 740 points. However, the currency’s performance with this particular exchange rate was not replicated across its other liquid counterparts. What does this say about the dollar – that its strength was not uniquely derived from its own fundamental backdrop; rather this dramatic charge was leveraged by the weakness of its counterpart.

FED_WATCH_07_14_2011_body_Picture_1.png, Dollar Rate Outlook Cut by QE3 Talk, Safety by Downgrade Warning

Considering the Euro / US dollar exchange rate is the most liquid currency pair in the FX market by a wide margin; it should come as no surprise that evidence of a worsening sovereign debt crisis in the Euro Zone readily contributed to the greenback’s safe haven appeal. Yet, this primary role for the currency was significantly diminished by the commentary from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that further stimulus may be pursued and a warning from Moody’s that it was putting the United States’ top sovereign credit rating on review. Yet, while the market reacted to both developments with fervor; neither headline was off the markets radar. Not long ago, Standard & Poor’s warned the US could face a downgrade and the central banker offered possible scenarios for both tightening and loosening policy. That being the case, should we expect dollar to sustain its dive?

A Closer Look at Financial and Consumer Conditions

FED_WATCH_07_14_2011_body_Picture_7.png, Dollar Rate Outlook Cut by QE3 Talk, Safety by Downgrade Warning

The stability of the US and global financial markets is an immediate and real concern. In the past few weeks, we have seen demand (measured through cost) for liquidity rise to multi-month highs. This call for short-term funds finds much of its genesis in the European debt crisis. With market access problems spreading from Greece to Portugal, Ireland and even Spain and Italy; we are facing a clear deterioration in funding conditions for one of the biggest collective markets in the world. A far greater threat however is the possibility of a US downgrade. With the government facing an August 2nd deadline to lift the debt ceiling or face a technical default; the market is looking down the barrel of a proverbial gun. Nearly every asset in the world is priced on Treasury’s risk free rate.

FED_WATCH_07_14_2011_body_Picture_10.png, Dollar Rate Outlook Cut by QE3 Talk, Safety by Downgrade Warning

There is general consensus that the US and global economies are cooling after their strong post-recession recovery. However, that doesn’t mean that market sentiment is pricing in this reality. This past Friday, the market was delivered a clear shock when the Labor Department reported that June nonfarm payrolls rose a sparse 18,000 positions – a wide miss on expectations and the smallest increase in nine months. The details were even more sobering with participation at a quarter-century low, the average duration of unemployment at a record high and those that want a job but were forced out the market hitting a record as well. What is truly remarkable is that the stubbornly high level of unemployment contradicts the efficacy of the government and Fed’s stimulus efforts. This is the source of the anti-QE3 argument.

The Financial and Capital Markets

Volatility is more remarkable for the capital markets than direction. Over the past few weeks we have seen a dramatic rally for the benchmarks for investor-favored asset classes shift to sharp declines. The initial run up found little in the way of tangible fundamental support; but the efforts of European officials towards solving their financial situation and rumors of further stimulus from the US certainly offered a base for bullish speculation. The turning point for the US markets was the disappointing employment report.

FED_WATCH_07_14_2011_body_Picture_4.png, Dollar Rate Outlook Cut by QE3 Talk, Safety by Downgrade Warning

Though this is just one indicator for the world’s largest economy, it represents the largest single economic catalyst in the world and it happens to be one of the primary targets of the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions. As the EU sovereign contagion spreads further and headlines of fallout from a US downgrade overwhelm investors; sentiment will maintain a dovish bearing. However, there is another factor that could offer a short-term reversal – or just as readily exacerbate fears: the US 2Q earnings season. The action begins this week with JPMorgan, Citi and Google on the docket. The following week is far denser with its releases; but we should keep a broader view of the results. If overall earnings growth is slowing; it will undermine the increasingly fragile sense of risk appetite that has kept equities near highs.

A Closer Look at Market Conditions

FED_WATCH_07_14_2011_body_Picture_13.png, Dollar Rate Outlook Cut by QE3 Talk, Safety by Downgrade Warning

For the capital markets benchmarks, we see in price a lack of conviction but a sure sign of uncertainty. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average attempted a strong run to overtake three-year highs through the end of June and into the beginning of July; but the implications of setting new highs were greater than the market was willing to approve. Having pulled back sharply from this short-term cycle high; it is clear that speculative is increasingly prevalent without a commensurate participation from investors who are willing to stick with trends. One interesting factor is the gradual increase in volume that will support a prevailing trend.

FED_WATCH_07_14_2011_body_Picture_16.png, Dollar Rate Outlook Cut by QE3 Talk, Safety by Downgrade Warning

Where we have lacked for consistent trends, we have certainly made up for it in sheer volatility. The traditional readings using implied volatility figures through options have hardly budged. That said, price action has shown a remarkable increase in activity (measured through increased tick volume as well as wider daily ranges – not to mention dramatic turns in market bearings). Once again, we have to point out the short fall in the usual volatility readings – they are based on ‘insurance premiums’ that reflect the market’s fears. Expectations for maintaining and expanding stimulus, ongoing earnings growth and unrelenting economic growth has left the market with unrealistic projections and a book of excessive risk.

 

Written by: John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis Further Deteriorates, So Why the Bounce?


Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis Further Deteriorates, So Why the Bounce?

By John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist

13 July 2011 04:13 GMT
  • Dollar and Equities Traders Look for Mentions of QE3 from Bernanke
  • Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis Further Deteriorates, So Why the Bounce?
  • British Pound Follows Risk Trends More Closely than Inflation Data
  • Australian Dollar Finds a Temperate Boost from Chinese GDP
  • New Zealand Dollar Gets a Second Attempt at 1Q GDP Figures
  • Japanese Yen Sees Early Session Surge But Strength Quickly Retraced
  • Gold Rally Continues, Record High Close as Financial Stability Questioned

Dollar and Equities Traders Look for Mentions of QE3 from Bernanke

If the dollar (ticker = USDollar) were in charge of its own fortunes, it wouldn’t have suffered the sharp reversal the market impressed through the European and US trading hours Tuesday. The price action through the previous trading day reminds us that the greenback is at the mercy of larger fundamental themes; and the currency will continue to find its bearings through these strong market winds through the foreseeable future. Tracking following the now-familiar correlations, the high level of market volatility made even easier to spot the dollar’s reflection of risk appetite trends. Our favored benchmark for sentiment trends, S&P 500 futures, managed to break the most aggressive decline in over a month with a sharp, bullish recover before New York liquidity came online. The unusually active overnight session lined up perfectly with EURUSD, pulling the currency back up to the important 1.40 figure that signaled progress on the pair’s bearish progress the session before. Now, with the benchmark exchange rate resting once again at this critical figure; the debate over direction and momentum are once again the responsibility of speculators.

From the fundamental side of the equation, market sentiment was guided by the preoccupation with the European sovereign debt situation – hence the intraday reversal. With Ireland finding itself sovereign debt rating lowered to ‘junk’ status (more on that below), the situation has tangibly deteriorated; but the speculative spirit would respond quickly to the quick fix offered in rumors of ECB purchases of EU member bonds. This temporary relief would turn a quick profit taking on risk-aversion position; and lead market participants to wait for the next catalyst for direction. For scheduled event risk, data did little to encourage risk trends or the US recovery. The May trade deficit swelled much more than expected to a $50.2 billion shortfall while the NFIB reported an unexpected slip in small business confidence (the group responsible for the greatest segment of employment in the country). Most notable, though, was the minutes from the FOMC decision. This looked like a write-off event after Chairman Bernanke’s press conference following the decision; but the notes proved noteworthy. On one hand, a few members spoke to the need for further stimulus should growth not curb unemployment; but there was also a consensus on the “steps” for stimulus withdrawal.

Perhaps this mixed view will come up in Bernanke’s testimony in the upcoming New York session. The central banker is scheduled to deliver his semi-annual policy report to Congress; and politicians have better access to grill than the regular market participant. Given the discussions circulating in headlines and amongst trading forums, there is considerable speculation of a QE3 announcement. That is unlikely given the steady progress of policy to this point and the trouble with eventually drawing down a larger safety net. Then again, anything is possible nowadays.

Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis Further Deteriorates, So Why the Bounce?

Having plunged in the previous two active trading sessions (and fallen over 500 points in the span of 5 days against the greenback), the euro was due for a correction. The initial tumble Tuesday morning was largely influenced by prevailing market concerns; but some credit should be given to comments offered by new IMF head Lagarde. The real buying momentum for the day, however, falls to rumors that the ECB purchased Italian and Spanish sovereign bonds after their dramatic selloff the previous day. A bid from the policy officials is a well-known temporary fix; but the hold over form this effort is certainly in question after Moody’s downgraded Ireland’s credit rating to ‘Junk’ and pegged it with a negative outlook. The immediate impact was muted; but this was the same general reaction to the Portugal incident the previous week. We now have two countries whose debt will have to be purged by high quality portfolios and a crisis spreading to the EU core. Temporary fixes won’t cut it.

British Pound Follows Risk Trends More Closely than Inflation Data

Between bullish and bearish scenarios for the UK CPI data; the latter had the greater potential for impact. That said, a notable slip from the headline reading to 4.2 percent clip wouldn’t rouse much of a reaction from the sterling. This reflects a complete lack of interest in rate speculation. Alternatively, the jobs figures could tap into concerns over the impact of austerity efforts on growth and perk up volatility.

Australian Dollar Finds a Temperate Boost from Chinese GDP

Business and consumer confidence data populated the Australian docket Tuesday and Wednesday respectively; but its influence over the market was notable anemic. Those trading the high-yield currency are more concerned with larger risk trends and longer-term economic trends. That said, a 2Q GDP reading from China (the slowest since 3Q 2009 but still 9.5 percent) didn’t seem to alter carry interests much.

New Zealand Dollar Gets a Second Attempt at 1Q GDP Figures

Last week, the market was preparing for the release of 1Q GDP figures from New Zealand; but the statistics group decided to push the data’s release back. Now, we are once again in the countdown to the release and expectations of a 0.3 percent increase in growth reflect a decent performance for the country. Yet, for a currency that has rallied on flimsy fundamentals; a disappointment can push the tipping point.

Japanese Yen Sees Early Session Surge But Strength Quickly Retraced

The Bank of Japan boosted its outlook for the economy for the second month with the commentary from its policy decision; but the downgrade to year-end 2012 GDP forecasts hung heavy. Yet, yen traders know that generated little interest for the currency. Wednesday morning, a big flush after the session rollover would expose low liquidity and spark a sharp rally. But without carry unwinding to back it up, it was quickly retraced.

Gold Rally Continues, Record High Close as Financial Stability Questioned

With Bernanke on tap tomorrow, the US 2Q earnings season starting soon, the budget ceiling countdown running, Ireland downgraded to ‘junk’ status, and the Portuguese central bank downgrading growth forecasts; there is plenty of reason to avoid exposure to the largest economies and their troubled markets. What are the viable alternatives to something as familiar and liquid as currencies: gold is at the top of the short list.

ECONOMIC DATA

Next 24 Hours

GMT Currency Release Survey Previous Comments
0:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (JUL) -2.6% May indicate rate of consumer consumption going into Fall months
0:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (JUL) 101.2
2:00 CNY Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (JUN) 13.9% 14.0% Slower production could mean PBoC tightening working
2:00 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN) 13.1% 13.3%
2:00 CNY Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD (YoY) (JUN) 25.7% 25.8%
2:00 CNY Real GDP YTD (QoQ) (2Q) 2.1% If the GDP slows, it may indicate spending will decrease. However if GDP continues to grow, may lead to continued tightening
2:00 CNY Real GDP YTD (YoY) (2Q) 9.5% 9.7%
2:00 CNY Real GDP (QoQ)(2Q) 2.1%
2:00 CNY Real GDP (YoY) (2Q) 9.0% 9.7%
2:00 CNY Retail Sales YTD YoY (JUN) 16.7% 16.6% Retail sales is usually correlated with inflation, may suggest PBoC plans
2:00 CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN) 17.0% 16.9%
4:30 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (MAY F) 5.7% Japanese industrial data could suggest demand for raw materials
4:30 JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY F) -5.9%
4:30 JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (MAY) -1.1%
6:00 EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (JUN) -0.2% 0.0% Wholesale prices expected to fall slightly, reduction may pass onto CPI
6:00 EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (JUN) 8.8% 8.9%
7:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (JUN) -0.3% -0.2% Production import prices may have little bearing on future SNB decisions
7:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (JUN) -0.3% -0.4%
8:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate (JUN) 4.7% 4.6% Newest British employment data could show weakness in labor market, possibly pointing to a slowdown in the overall economy
8:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change (JUN) 15K 19.6K
8:30 GBP Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY (MAY) 2.1% 1.8%
8:30 GBP Weekly Earnings exBonus 3M/YoY (MAY) 2.0% 2.0%
8:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (MAY) 7.7% 7.7%
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (MAY) 4.8% 5.3% Year over year industrial production expected to slow as world economy weaker
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (MAY) 0.4% 0.2%
11:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (JUL 8) -5.2% Data may point to real estate health
12:30 USD Import Price Index (MoM) (JUN) -0.6% 0.2% Year-over-year import prices expected to be driven upwards by raw materials costs
12:30 USD Import Price Index (YoY) (JUN) 13.2% 12.5%
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUL 8) -889K Energy levels expected to drop as demand keeps falling due to slower domestic economy
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (JUL 8) -634K
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (JUL 8) 0.3%
14:30 USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (JUL 8) -460K
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (JUL 8) -191K
18:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement (JUN) -$65.5B -$57.6B Budget deficit expected to widen to Aug 2
22:30 NZD Business NZ PMI (JUN) 54.7 Business survey has trended up
22:45 NZD GDP Q1 (YoY) 0.5% 0.8% First quarter output expected to be lower, largely due to Christchurch earthquake
22:45 NZD GDP Q1 (QoQ) 0.3% 0.2%
GMT Currency Upcoming Events & Speeches
5:00 JPY Bank of Japan Monthly Economic Report
14:00 USD Bernanke Delivers Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report to House

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE – 18:00 GMT

Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist 2 1.5160 1.6600 89.00 0.9345 1.0275 1.1800 0.8400 118.00 146.05
Resist 1 1.5000 1.6300 86.00 0.8900 1.0000 1.1000 0.8300 113.50 140.00
Spot 1.3976 1.5913 79.24 0.8306 0.9666 1.0598 0.8181 110.74 126.10
Support 1 1.4000 1.5935 79.00 0.8300 0.9500 1.0400 0.7745 109.00 125.00
Support 2 1.3700 1.5750 75.00 0.8250 0.9055 1.0200 0.6850 106.00 119.00

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE –EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMTSCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT

Currency USD/MXN USD/TRY USD/ZAR USD/HKD USD/SGD Currency USD/SEK USD/DKK USD/NOK
Resist 2 13.8500 1.7425 7.4025 7.8165 1.3650 Resist 2 7.5800 5.6625 6.1150
Resist 1 12.5000 1.6730 7.3500 7.8075 1.3250 Resist 1 6.5175 5.3100 5.7075
Spot 11.7927 1.6465 6.8786 7.7948 1.2252 Spot 6.5865 5.3360 5.5990
Support 1 11.5200 1.5725 6.5575 7.7490 1.2145 Support 1 6.0800 5.1050 5.3040
Support 2 11.4400 1.5040 6.4295 7.7450 1.2000 Support 2 5.8085 4.9115 4.9410

INTRA-DAY PIVOT POINTS 18:00 GMT

Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist 2 1.4183 1.6049 80.81 0.8444 0.9843 1.0735 0.8390 114.46 129.09
Resist 1 1.4080 1.5981 80.02 0.8375 0.9755 1.0667 0.8286 112.60 127.59
Pivot 1.3958 1.5881 79.60 0.8329 0.9690 1.0596 0.8198 111.09 126.36
Support 1 1.3855 1.5813 78.81 0.8260 0.9602 1.0528 0.8094 109.23 124.86
Support 2 1.3733 1.5713 78.39 0.8214 0.9537 1.0457 0.8006 107.72 123.63

INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

\Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist. 3 1.4172 1.6068 80.01 0.8411 0.9760 1.0736 0.8290 112.28 127.68
Resist. 2 1.4123 1.6029 79.82 0.8385 0.9736 1.0701 0.8263 111.90 127.29
Resist. 1 1.4074 1.5991 79.62 0.8359 0.9713 1.0667 0.8236 111.51 126.89
Spot 1.3976 1.5913 79.24 0.8306 0.9666 1.0598 0.8181 110.74 126.10
Support 1 1.3878 1.5835 78.86 0.8253 0.9619 1.0529 0.8126 109.97 125.31
Support 2 1.3829 1.5797 78.66 0.8227 0.9596 1.0495 0.8099 109.58 124.91
Support 3 1.3780 1.5758 78.47 0.8201 0.9572 1.0460 0.8072 109.20 124.51

v

Written by: John Kicklighter, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


Risk Correlated Currencies Continue to Do A Good Job of Staying Bid


Risk Correlated Currencies Continue to Do A Good Job of Staying Bid

By Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist

08 July 2011 04:15 GMT
  • ECB raises rates to 1.50% and maintains hawkish outlook
  • Solid ADP report sets the stage for a positive NFP print
  • Risk correlated currencies remain very well supported
  • US Dollar still pressured on solid local data
  • Kiwi to fresh post-float record highs beyond 0.8300

Risk correlated currencies and other assets continue to do a good job of absorbing bad news, while at the same time rallying impressively on any sign of light. The rebound in these markets on Thursday have been primarily driven by two developments, the first of which, an uncompromising and unwavering ECB which remains intent on continuing with its newly adopted tightening bias, even in the face of ongoing peripheral debt concerns. The second driver of the risk rally has come from some solid ADP employment data which now encourages optimism for a healthy number out from tomorrow’s more highly anticipated US NFP report.

Our colleague, the chief strategist at a major US bank sent out a very interesting chart that illustrates this anomaly in which risk correlated currencies continue to benefit despite some broader negative news. While European bank stocks have come under some solid pressure over the past few sessions as uncertainty on the Eurozone peripheral escalates, the Eur/Chf cross which normally would also trade lower on this news, has in fact rallied, to reflect a carefree (ore less concerned) attitude towards Eurozone debt risks (see below). Our colleague suggests that whatever is being discussed in terms of a resolution in the Eurozone could be overall peripheral friendly but not necessarily European bank friendly.

Risk_Correlated_Currencies_Continue_to_Do_A_Good_Job_of_Staying_Bid_body_Picture_5.png, Risk Correlated Currencies Continue to Do A Good Job of Staying Bid

Moving on, earlier in the week we discussed the possibility that solid US economic data could start to translate into a stronger US Dollar, with the Fed having nowhere to go with monetary policy but up. But at this point, it seems as though market participants are not yet ready to buy into that correlation shift, with the preference still to move away from the Greenback and into higher yielding currencies on any positive US economic data.

While it is true that Fed policy can only go up from here, it seems as though investors feel that failure to move at all still offers more attractive yield differentials abroad. We certainly can’t argue with this view, but also at the same time would be looking for that correlation shift over the near-term. For now however, the USD bears are winning out on this argument and the latest less than hawkish official speak from the always hawkish Fed’s Fisher and Fed Hoenig is not helping the buck’s cause.

Looking ahead, Swiss unemployment, German current account and trade, and UK producer prices will be the key economic releases in the European session, while into North America, US and Canada employment reports will take center stage. US equity futures and commodities prices consolidate their latest moves and track relatively unchanged into the European open. As a side note, it will be worth tracking performance in the New Zealand Dollar on Friday, with Nzd/Usd back above 0.8300 and breaking to fresh post-float record highs. We continue to view the market as stretched and do not see gains sustaining above the figure. As such, selling on any rallies above 0.8300 cold rove to be a rewarding strategy.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Risk_Correlated_Currencies_Continue_to_Do_A_Good_Job_of_Staying_Bid_body_Picture_6.png, Risk Correlated Currencies Continue to Do A Good Job of Staying Bid

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

Risk_Correlated_Currencies_Continue_to_Do_A_Good_Job_of_Staying_Bid_body_eur.png, Risk Correlated Currencies Continue to Do A Good Job of Staying Bid

EUR/USD: Overall, medium-term price action remains quite choppy and we continue to like the idea of selling into rallies in anticipation of a more sizeable pullback below 1.4000. From here, look for the formation of a fresh lower top by 1.4580 ahead of the next downside extension to be confirmed on a break back below 1.3970 over the coming days. In the interim, look for intraday rallies to be well offered ahead of 1.4500. Back under 1.4220 accelerates declines.

Risk_Correlated_Currencies_Continue_to_Do_A_Good_Job_of_Staying_Bid_body_jpy2.png, Risk Correlated Currencies Continue to Do A Good Job of Staying Bid

USD/JPY: After undergoing a fairly intense drop off from the 85.50 area several days back, the market looks to have finally found some support in the 80.00 area and could be in the process of carving out some form of a base. Look for setbacks to continue to be well supported around 80.00 with only a close back below 79.50 to give reason for concern. From here we see the risks for a fresh upside extension back towards the recent range highs at 85.50 over the coming weeks and the latest break and close back above 81.00 helps to confirm. Look for a test of next key short-term resistance by 82.20 over the coming sessions.

Risk_Correlated_Currencies_Continue_to_Do_A_Good_Job_of_Staying_Bid_body_gbp2.png, Risk Correlated Currencies Continue to Do A Good Job of Staying Bid

GBP/USD: Although the short-term structure remains bearish, setbacks seem to be well supported in the 1.5900’s for now. However, we classify the latest price action as some bearish consolidation ahead of the next major downside extension with the market now looking to establish back below the 200-Day SMA and extend declines below next key support at 1.5750 further down. In the interim, look for any rallies to be well capped ahead below 1.6150 on a daily close basis.

Risk_Correlated_Currencies_Continue_to_Do_A_Good_Job_of_Staying_Bid_body_swiss1.png, Risk Correlated Currencies Continue to Do A Good Job of Staying Bid

USD/CHF: Despite the intense downtrend resulting in recently established fresh record lows below 0.8300, short/medium/longer-term technical studies are looking quite stretched to us, and we continue to like the idea of taking shots at buying in anticipation of a major base. The latest break back above the 20-Day SMA is encouraging while a push beyond 0.8550 will ultimately be required to officially relieve immediate downside pressures and accelerate gains. In the interim, look for intraday setbacks to be well supported ahead of 0.8350.

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist


FOREX: Dollar Can’t Recover Ground on Holiday Trading Conditions


TODAY FOREX ANALYSIS

  • Dollar Can’t Recover Ground on Holiday Trading Conditions
  • Euro: Positive Turn in Greece Funding Curbed by Another S&P Warning
  • Australian Dollar Misses Risk Run, Moving on to RBA Decision
  • British Pound Marks a Slow Start to an Event-Heavy Week
  • Swiss Franc Tumbling Quickly as Specific Safe Haven Appeal Fades
  • Japanese Yen Fortified by BoJ’s Positive Outlook, Eased Political Pressure
  • Gold Recovery Lacking for Momentum Until Fiat Demand Weighed

Dollar Can’t Recover Ground on Holiday Trading Conditions

The opening trading day to the week was an unusual one. On the one hand, we had significant fundamental event risk headed up by the ongoing Greek bailout saga. Alternatively, liquidity conditions were distorted by the absence of US market participation due to the extended Independence Day holiday weekend. The combination of these two atypical developments was a market high on volatility but low on meaningful follow through. This is the type of frustrating mix that draws many traders into what-looks-like appealing trades that never gain traction after posting an initial signal for entry. Looking to the dollar, we can see the full effect of this market-imposed lethargy. Despite the early morning attempt to post its first bullish close in five trading days, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar ) ended Monday in the red. A look across the majors gives us clear representation of this greenback-centered weakness. Gains from the core EURUSD and GBPUSD pairs were measured but well-established in an underlying (though decelerating trend); the safe haven balanced USDJPY and USDCHF pairs were mostly unchanged but still dollar negative; and the yield-tipped NZDUSD was pushing new record highs into the beginning of Tuesday’s session.

Much of the currency’s weakness for the opening session can be chalked up to the carryover of selling momentum from the previous week. When there are is a lull in liquidity; the ability to generate a new trend is exceptionally handicapped – especially when the prevailing winds are generally backing a larger selling effort. Essentially, we should look at Monday as a write-off. Assumptions of trend, breakouts and fundamental shifts should be overlooked as they don’t reflect the conviction of the broader markets. If that is the case, we can approach Tuesday’s session as the opening trading day for the dollar. If that is the case, we can draw forward the prominent fundamental considerations that would will determine the benchmark’s bearing through the rest of the week. Risk appetite trends are still but follow through decelerated between the Asian and European sessions Monday; and it is likely to carry this breaking effort into today’s session.

Risk trends are a considerable burden for the dollar when they are positive; but they have offered limited support when negative. This speaks to an underlying truth of the greenback: that the currency is not a pure safe haven but rather a source of liquidity when funding markets freeze up. That being the case, we note that with the passage of Greece’s fifth round of financial support from the European Union, we have temporarily alleviated the threat of a global crisis. In turn, the credit markets have improved and the greenback’s primary appeal has diminished. The European-based sovereign debt issue is still the most immediate threat; but it will be supplanted through the immediate future the approach of the ECB rate decision. This will take a lot of wind out of any offensive that the dollar tries to mount on risk trend from now until Thursday.

Related : Discuss the Dollar in the DailyFX Forum , Today’s Video : ECB Decision versus Greek Financial Crisis for EURUSD Traders’ Attentions

Euro: Positive Turn in Greece Funding Curbed by Another S&P Warning

Another projected outcome was confirmed for euro traders over the weekend; and the support it is offering the currency is visibly wearing thin. After Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou won the confidence vote, it was heavily expected that the country would pass through its additional 78 billion euro austerity measures and secure the fifth tranche of its first bailout package. Indeed, EU Finance Ministers voted this past weekend to release the additional 12 billion in aid (provided the IMF distributes its own portion – which it is expected to approve this Friday). However, from here, the outlook grows a little blurry. Next Monday, the topic of a supplementary bailout package will come up again. In the meantime, Standard & Poor’s threatens to disrupt the quick-fix regime by repeating it would still see a private Greek debt rollover as a default.

Australian Dollar Misses Risk Run, Moving on to RBA Decision

Despite a buoyant start to the week for investor sentiment, the Australian dollar would close Monday out with its first bearish print in five trading days. Considering this weakness was particularly prevalent on AUDNZD, it was clear that the first sub-3.0 percent reading on the TD inflation reading in 11 months along with weak retail sales and approvals weighed the currency specifically. This sets up a dangerous RBA letdown .

British Pound Marks a Slow Start to an Event-Heavy Week

This week is heavy for UK-based scheduled event risk ; but Monday started us out with something of a mix. The economy’s housing sector took another step back with a weaker-than-expected construction sector reading and ongoing 5.8 billion sterling deficit on housing equity withdrawal. Both indicators are indicative of an important sector that will add additional weight to austerity measures and future stimulus/ratings issues.

Swiss Franc Tumbling Quickly as Specific Safe Haven Appeal Fades

The franc is quickly retreating against most of its most liquid counterparts – but is this reason enough to call a top? To determine whether the Swiss currency is indeed retreating from its record or near-record highs requires a fundamental position change. The unit is now finding much of its selling pressure through a reversal in safe haven flows from central Europe to the banking economy; but that in itself is not yet a stable driver.

Japanese Yen Fortified by BoJ’s Positive Outlook, Eased Political Pressure

Economic indicators have limited impact on the yen; and even major swings in growth potential seem to leave the currency little fazed. The real concern is changes to its place as a funding currency. Monday morning, the BoJ upgraded its growth outlook slightly while Finance Minister Noda suggested the government was backing off some of the pressure for further stimulus. These developments modestly diminish that role.

Gold Recovery Lacking for Momentum Until Fiat Demand Weighed

If were just a move posted against the dollar, then we could ascribe gold’s advance Monday to thin markets and a speculative effort to curb bearish speculation through the end of last week. However, the metal posted gains across the board. Fundamentally, confidence in fiat currency has not truly gained much traction. More interesting: net speculative futures positioning dropped last week the most since September 2008.

For Real Time Forex News, visit: http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news/

**For a full list of upcoming event risk and past releases, go to http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar

ECONOMIC DATA

N ext 24 Hours

GMT Currency Release Survey Previous Comments
1:30 AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (MAY) 1900M 1597M Exports to NZ expected to increase
1:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (MAY) -0.6% -1.4% Slower fall brings better outlook for market
2:30 CNY China HSBC Services PMI (JUN) 54.3 Survey expected to follow official lower
4:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision 4.75% 4.75% Commentary will be the most important
7:45 EUR Italian PMI Services (JUN F) 49.6 50.1 Although Italian services industries expected to start shrinking, overall composite numbers expected stagnant
7:50 EUR French PMI Services (JUN F) 56.7 56.7
7:55 EUR German PMI Services (JUN F) 58.3 58.3
8:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Composite (JUN F) 53.6 53.6
8:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Services (JUN F) 54.2 54.2
8:30 GBP PMI Services (JUN) 53.5 53.8 Government cuts, weakness hurting sector
8:30 GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (JUN) -$103M Sharply fallen as bank buys pounds
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY) -1.0% 0.9% Decline in retail sales may not stop this week’s rate decision, but may dull any further hawkishness
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY)(MAY) -0.6% 1.1%
14:00 USD Factory Orders (MAY) 1.0% -1.2% Recovery may lead manufacturing sector
23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (JUN) 2.3% Retail sales steadily climbing

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE – 18 :00 GMT

Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist 2 1.5160 1.6600 89.00 0.9345 1.0275 1.1800 0.8400 122.00 146.05
Resist 1 1.5000 1.6300 86.00 0.8900 1.0000 1.1000 0.8300 118.00 140.00
Spot 1.4543 1.6095 80.76 0.8478 0.9606 1.0732 0.8292 117.45 129.99
Support 1 1.4000 1.5935 80.00 0.8300 0.9500 1.0400 0.7745 113.80 125.00
Support 2 1.3700 1.5750 75.00 0.8250 0.9055 1.0200 0.6850 105.50 119.00

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE – EMERGING MARKETS 18 :00 GMT SCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT

Currency USD/MXN USD/TRY USD/ZAR USD/HKD USD/SGD Currency USD/SEK USD/DKK USD/NOK
Resist 2 13.8500 1.6575 7.4025 7.8165 1.3650 Resist 2 7.5800 5.6625 6.1150
Resist 1 12.5000 1.6300 7.3500 7.8075 1.3250 Resist 1 6.5175 5.3100 5.7075
Spot 11.5835 1.6160 6.7239 7.7807 1.2252 Spot 6.2607 5.1288 5.3407
Support 1 11.5200 1.5040 6.5575 7.7490 1.2145 Support 1 6.0800 5.1050 5.3040
Support 2 11.4400 1.4725 6.4295 7.7450 1.2000 Support 2 5.8085 4.9115 4.9410

INTRA-DAY PIVOT POINTS 18:00 GMT

Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist 2 1.4621 1.6188 81.19 0.8521 0.9639 1.0821 0.8333 118.12 130.44
Resist 1 1.4582 1.6142 80.97 0.8500 0.9623 1.0776 0.8313 117.78 130.21
Pivot 1.4539 1.6094 80.76 0.8481 0.9601 1.0745 0.8290 117.41 129.94
Support 1 1.4500 1.6048 80.54 0.8460 0.9585 1.0700 0.8270 117.07 129.72
Support 2 1.4457 1.6000 80.33 0.8441 0.9563 1.0669 0.8247 116.70 129.45

INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

\ Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist. 3 1.4724 1.6251 81.56 0.8574 0.9693 1.0868 0.8401 119.01 131.47
Resist. 2 1.4679 1.6212 81.36 0.8550 0.9672 1.0834 0.8374 118.62 131.10
Resist. 1 1.4634 1.6173 81.16 0.8526 0.9650 1.0800 0.8346 118.23 130.73
Spot 1.4543 1.6095 80.76 0.8478 0.9606 1.0732 0.8292 117.45 129.99
Support 1 1.4452 1.6017 80.36 0.8430 0.9562 1.0664 0.8238 116.67 129.24
Support 2 1.4407 1.5978 80.16 0.8406 0.9540 1.0630 0.8210 116.28 128.87
Support 3 1.4362 1.5939 79.96 0.8382 0.9519 1.0596 0.8183 115.89 128.50

v

Written by: John Kicklighter , Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive John’s reports via email or to submit Questions or Comments about an article; email jkicklighter@dailyfx.com

The information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but of which we have not independently verified. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these materials. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages, including without limitation losses, lost revenues, or lost profits that may result from these materials. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
05 July 2011 00:30 GMT


Gold Approaches Key Support Shift in Appetite to Risk Further Losses


Gold

Gold/USD • NY Spot Close 1487.14

Gold_Approaches_Key_Support_Shift_in_Appetite_to_Risk_Further_Losses__body_xauusd_risk.png, Gold Approaches Key Support- Shift in Appetite to Risk Further Losses Gold Approaches Key Support– Shift in Appetite to Risk Further Losses

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Bearish

  • Gold Could Fall off a Cliff
  • Gold Price Hurt by Haven Status as Europe Drives Confidence
  • S&P 500 Hints Doubt Bottom, Oil and Gold at Trend-Defining Barriers

With risk appetite returning to markets in full force this week, significant gains in equities coupled with the end of the dollar diluting Fed easing policies are likely to see gold remain on the defensive. This week witnessed gold fall 1.17% on the back of the 2.36% drop seen the previous week. The yellow metal now approaches key support at the 100-day moving average at $1475.

Gold’s inability to climb amid weakness in the dollar may be a pre-curser to further losses moving forward. The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar ) declined more than 1.7% this week as improving risk appetite saw traders jettison the greenback for higher-yielding growth-linked assets. Yet the losses in the dollar and advances in the S&P did not translate into gains for gold, suggesting that there may be a fundamental shift away from the metal as an alternate investment. The breakdown of these key correlations continues to suggest gold me be in a technical correction as traders continue seek riskier assets.

With central banks like the ECB now gearing up to raise interest rates in an attempt to combat higher food and energy costs, the long gold anti-inflationary play will begin to lose its luster as sluggish wage growth and higher rates give rise to deflationary concerns. As appetite continues to pick up, gold becomes less of an attractive asset for traders seeking to maximize exposure to higher yielding investments.

However in light of the recent rally seen in equities, one would expect some consolidation ahead of next week’s jam packed global economic docket with rate decisions from the ECB, BOE, and the RBA on tap. The week closes with Friday’s highly anticipated non-farm payroll figures with estimates calling for a read of just 100K after last month’s dismal print of just 54K. If data next week upsets the recent shift in risk sentiment, gold could pair some of the losses seen this week as traders flock to haven assets. However, with central banks moving to curb inflation and interest rates seen on the rise, the metal should remain well anchored with risk weighted to the downside.

A Fibonacci extension taken from the all-time highs on May 2 nd and the June 22 nd peak reveals downside targets below the 100-day moving average at 76.4% extension at 1468, followed by the convergence of the 100% extension and trendline support dating back to July 28 th 2010 at $1440. If the 100-day moving average holds, a rebound sees topside targets at the 50% Fib extension just shy of the $1500 level, backed by $1530.- MB

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
01 July 2011 22:59 GMT


USD, EUR dan JPY Rawan Koreksi Mendadak


USD, EUR dan JPY Rawan Koreksi Mendadak

Jumat, 01 Juli 2011 13:12 WIB
TODAY’S ANALYSIS FOREX
Tiga mata uang utama berada dalam posisi rentan koreksi. Masing-masing mata uang memiliki ‘beban’ yang bisa memicu penurunan kurs.
Demikian pandangan seorang dealer di sebuah lembaga keuangan Jepang. “Hanya soal waktu, (valuta) mana yang anjlok terlebih dahulu,” ujar dealer tersebut. ‘Beban’ yang dimiliki oleh yen tidak lain adalah downgrade rating JGB. Sementara USD masih terbebani oleh plafon hutang dan anggaran Amerika Serikat (AS). Adapun faktor yang bisa menggerus euro tentu berasal dari perkembangan isu hutang Yunani.

Saat ini, dollar masih jadi valuta terkuat dibanding kedua rivalnya tersebut karena pesimisme pertumbuhan ekonomi mulai berkurang. Kemudian diikuti oleh EUR, terutama setelah titik terang penyelesaian hutang tampak di Athena. JPY sedang terbebani oleh hasil survei Tankan kuartal II yang dirilis mengecewakan. Sebagai catatan, permintaan eksportir terhadap yen sedang melemah pasca pembelian rutin di akhir bulan.


Dow, S&P Akhiri Penurunan Beruntun


Sabtu, 18 Juni 2011 04:32 WIB
TODAY’S ANALYSIS STOCK INDEX

Dow dan S&P ditutup naik ditengah sesi perdagangan yang sepi di hari Jumat, mengakhiri penurunan selama 6 pekan berturut-turut, terdorong oleh berita semakin dekatnya bailout untuk Yunani. Namun penurunan pada sektor teknologi menekan Nasdaq turun. “Menurutku penurunan sebesar 7% belum menjadi penentuan, ini adalah waktu yang sulit untuk melakukan trading,” ucap Randy Frederick direktur Trading dan Derivatives pada Charles Schwab. ““Di kuartal ketiga dan keempat, akan ada rebounf,” ucapnya. “Ketika QE2 berakhir, butuh beberapa minggu bagi investor untuk kembali optimis pada pasar dan bagis pasar untuk berbalik naik. Jika pasar dapat mempertahankan level saat ini, itu akan memberikan optimisme untuk berdiri sendiri.”

Merkel dan Sarkozy mengatakan mereka ebrsatu mendukung paket bantuan baru untuk Yunani yang akan mengikutsertakan sektor swasta dalam basis yang disebut “Vienna Initiative.” Berita data setelah Perdana Menteri Yunani menunjuk Evangelos Venizelos sebagai Menteri Keuangan menggantikan George Papaconstantinou. Sementara itu, Moody’s mengatakan sedang mengawasi Italia atas kemungkinan downgrade peringkat hutang, mengingat lemahnya struktural dan kemungkinan naiknya suku bunga.
***EnglishVersion***

Dow, S & P End losing streak

Saturday, June 18, 2011 4:32 pm

TODAY’S STOCK INDEX ANALYSIS
Dow and S & P closed up amid a quiet trading session on Friday, ending a decline for 6 weeks in a row, driven by news of the approach of a bailout for Greece. But the decline in the Nasdaq hit the tech sector down. “I think a decrease of 7% has not been a determination, this was a difficult time to make trades,” said Randy Frederick director of Trading and Derivatives at Charles Schwab. “” In the third and fourth quarters, there will be rebounf, “he said.” When the QE2 ends , it took several weeks for investors to re-optimistic on the market and the market to rebound Bagis. If the market can sustain current levels, it will give optimism to stand alone. ”
Merkel and Sarkozy said they ebrsatu supports new aid package for Greece that will engage the private sector in the base of the so-called “Vienna Initiative.” News of data after the Greek Prime Minister Evangelos Venizelos appointed as Minister of Finance to replace George Papaconstantinou. Meanwhile, Moody’s said it was watching the Italian for possible downgrade the debt ratings, given the structural weakness and the possibility of rising interest rates.


Emas Menguat Ditopang Permintaan


 

Jumat, 17 Juni 2011 21:25 WIB

TODAY’S ANALYSIS COMMODITY

Emas naik lebih lanjut dekati titik tertinggi bulanan ditopang kuatnya permintaan fisik meskipun trend pelemahan global masih menghantui. Dilaporkan pembelian emas fisik kembali meningkat ditengah musim pernikahan di Asia, terutama India dan China. Peritel dan pengusaha perhiasan membeli Emas untuk memenuhi permintaan musiman yang akan tinggi sehingga mereduksi faktor lemahnya pemulihan ekonomi global. Faktor positif lain penopang emas adalah kekhawatiran utang Yunani yang telah didiskon pasar. Anggota Uni Eropa Urusan Moneter dan Ekonomi Olli Rehn mengatakan bahwa review mengenai Yunani dengan IMF akan dirilis pada Senin depan, dan pada hari itu juga Eurogroup diharapkan mampu mengambil keputusan untuk menggelontorkan pinjaman ke Yunani pada awal Juli. Meski komentar tersebut cukup melegakan pasar namun rencana bailout baru masih belum difinalisasi sehingga masih banyak ketidakpastian. Berdasarkan studi teknikal, bias intraday masih Bullish selama harga bergerak didalam bullish channel pada grafik H4. Bagaimanapun masih dibutuhkan penembusan konsisten diatas area 1541 untuk memicu momentum bullish lebih lanjut menguji level resisten kunci 1550. Di sisi bawahnya, hanya level support terdekat ada di area 1525 – 1530. Anjlok dibawah area tersebut dapat membawa harga ke zona netral karena arahnya menjadi tidak jelas.

 

***EnglishVersion***

 

Gold Gains Sustained Demand
Friday, June 17, 2011 21:25 AM

TODAY’S COMMODITY ANALYSIS

Gold rose further to approach the highest point of the monthly underpinned strong physical demand despite the weakening global trend is still haunting. Reported purchase of physical gold back up amid wedding season in Asia, especially India and China.

Retailers and employers to purchase gold jewelry to meet seasonal demand will be high so that the reduction factor of the weak global economic recovery.

Another positive factor supporting gold is the concern that Greece‘s debt market has been discounted. Members of the European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn said that the review of Greece with the IMF will be released next Monday, and on that day Eurogroup also expected to take decisions to lending poured into Greece in early July. Although the comment was quite a relief to the market but the new bailout plan is still not finalized, so there are still many uncertainties.

Based on the study of technical, intraday bias remains bullish as long as the price moves in the bullish channel on H4 charts. However still required penetration is consistent over the area in 1541 to trigger further bullish momentum to test key resistance level of 1550.

On the bottom side, only the closest support level is in the area from 1525 to 1530. Fell below that area could bring the price into the neutral zone because its direction is unclear.


Commodity Update


Pertumbuhan Ekonomi AS Melambat; Tingkat Harga Melambung

Perekonomian AS sedang menghadapi masalah akibat kenaikan harga dan lemahnya pertumbuhan. Inflasi di AS saat ini naik ke level tertinggi dalam hampir selama 3 tahun di bulan Mei, sementara aktivitas manufaktur regional berkontraksi bulan ini, menurut laporan hari Rabu. Konsumen di AS lega setelah harga bensin mulai turun, membantu perekonomian pulih dari suramnya data belakangan ini. Namun dalam tren yang dapat menyulitkan pejabat di Federal Reserve, Dep. Tenaga Kerja mengatakan indeks harga konsumen diluar makanan
dan energi naik 0.3%. Itu merupakan kenaikan terbesar sejak Juli 2008, kendati sebagian kenaikan disebabkan oleh gangguan suplai akibat gempa bumi Jepang yang mendorong harga otomotif naik tajam. Laporan terposah menunjukkan penurunan tajam pada aktivitas manufaktur di negara bagian New York dan penurunan 0.1% pada output industri bulan Mei, kendati sebagian disebabkan oleh penurunan pada utilitas terkait udara dingin.

Emas Kian Diminati

Emas naik pada hari Rabu akibat aksi beli safe-haven yang dipicu oleh penurunan tajam pada bursa saham ditengah kecemasan melambatnya perekonomian AS dan tanda bawa krisis hutang di Yunani dapat meningkat.
Investor beralih kepada emas setelah indeks harga konsumen AS mencetak kenaikan terbesar dalam hampir selama 4 tahun dan dan sektor manufaktur regional berkontraksi bulan ini, juga akibat ketidakpastian mengenai diskusi tentang batas hutang AS. “Emas adalah tempat bergantung saat ini ketika bursa saham, minyak mentah dan komoditas lainnya melemah,” ucap Robert Lutts, kepala bagian invetasi di Cabot Money Management. Emas sempat turun pada awal sesi, didera oleh aksi jual dan penguatan dollar akibat krisis hutang Eropa yang memburuk.

Penguatan Dollar Tekan Minyak

Minyak turun lebih dari 4% pada hari Rabu, seiring tanda pelemahan ekonomi lanjutan yang meningkatkan kecemasan permintaan dan juga tertekan oleh penguatan dollar, memicu order sellstop dan mendorong minyak mentah turun ke level terendah sejak bulan Februari. Minyak mentah melemah pasca data menunjukkan kenaikan pada inflasi inti dan sektor manufaktur di New York
berkontraksi. Aksi jual kian intens setelah menembus ke bawah MA150 dan support kunci pada $95, dan menghapus sedikit gain pada minyak mentah akibat
penurunan tajam pada suplai minyak mentah AS. “Investor terburu-buru untuk keluar. Pasar dinilai terlalu tinggi saat ini, minyak brent terus menggelembung, dan gelembung itu pecah hari ini,” ucap Tim Evans, analis energi pada Citi Futures Perspective.

***EnglishVersion***

U.S. Economic Growth Slows; Exchange Rates Soar

The U.S. economy is facing problems due to rising prices and weak growth. Inflation in the U.S. today rose to its highest level in nearly 3 years in May, while the regional manufacturing activity contracted this month, according to reports Wednesday. Consumers in the U.S. relief after gasoline prices began to fall, helping the economy recover from data gloomy lately. But in a trend that could complicate the Federal Reserve officials, Dep. Labor said its index of consumer prices outside of food and energy rose 0.3%. It was the biggest gain since July 2008, although some of the increase due to supply disruptions caused by earthquakes Japanese automotive drive prices up sharply. Terposah report showed a sharp decline in manufacturing activity in New York state and 0.1% decline in industrial output in May, although partly due to a decrease in cold-related utilities.

Gold More Wanted

Gold rose on Wednesday due to safe-haven buying triggered by a sharp decline in stock markets amid concern a slowing U.S. economy and signs carry the debt crisis in Greece can be increased. Investors turn to gold after the U.S. consumer price index scored the biggest gain in nearly four years and the regional manufacturing sector contracted this month, also due to uncertainty regarding the discussion about the U.S. debt limit. “Gold is where the current depends when the stock market, crude oil and other commodities lower,” said Robert Lutts, chief invetasi at Cabot Money Management. Gold was down early in the session, chastened by the strengthening dollar selloff and Europe due to the worsening debt crisis.

Strengthening Dollar Oil Press

Oil fell more than 4% on Wednesday, as a sign of continued economic weakness that increase anxiety and demand also pressured by the strengthening dollar, triggering orders sellstop and pushed crude oil fell to its lowest level since February. Crude oil fell after data showed a rise in core inflation and the manufacturing sector contracted in New York. Increasingly intense sell-off after breaking down the MA150 and the key support at $ 95, and removing a bit of gain on crude oil due to a sharp drop in U.S. crude supplies. “Investors rush to exit. The market is overvalued at this time, Brent oil continued to bubble, and bubbles burst today,” said Tim Evans, energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective.


Energy Sector Stocks Wall Street boost


Produksi Industri Cina Legakan Asia
Bursa saham Asia menguat setelah data tunjukan berlanjutnya pertumbuhan produksi industri Cina, bukti negeri tirai bamboo ini dapat pertahankan
performa pertumbuhan ekonomi-nya yang cemeralang. Namun, inflasi naik 5,5%, level tertinggi 34 bulan; ini tentunya berikan alasan bagi bank sentral Cina untuk lanjutkan pengetatan kebijakan moneter. Setelah bursa Cina ditutup, People’s Bank of China umumkan kenaikan Giro Wajib Minimum Perbankan sebesar 50 bps; Hang Seng langsung terpukul setelah berita dirilis dan berakhir melemah 0,1%. Nikkei menguat 1,1%, ditopang aksi beli investor Asia, namun kekhawatiran terhadap perlambatan ekonomi global dapat batasi reli lebih
lanjut. Tokyo Electric Power melejit 25,1% setelah kabinet Jepang setujui skema kompensasi bagi korban krisis nuklir Fukushima. Kospi berhasil ditutup naik 1,4% meski kecemasan atas keadaan ekonomi global membuat investor berhati-hati sehingga batasi penguatan indeks. Saham Woori Finance meningkat 0,4% setelah pemerintah utarakan ketidak-setujuan rencana partisipasi KDB Financial Group dalam lelang aset Woori senilai $6 miliar. Sektor kimia tunjukan
pemulihan setelah terperosok dalam bulan ini dengan LG Chemical dan Hanwha Chemical masing-masing menguat 1.9% dan 6.3%.

 

Saham Sektor Energi Lejitkan Wall Street
Saham AS terlepas dari level tinggi namun masih ditutup naik tajam pada hari Selasa, dipimpin kenaikan saham sektor energi, menyusul sejumlah data eknomi yang membantu mendorong optimisme pasar. “Rally berkaitan erat dengan faktor teknikal,” menurut Alan Valdes, direktur operasional floor pada DME Securities, mengingat pasar cenderung terkoreksi menjelang berakhirnya masa kontrak option. Bernanke memperingatkan bahwa kegagalam untuk menaikkan
batas hutang beresiko menghilangkan kredibilitas AS, mengatakan AS dapat kehilangan peringkat hutang AAA miliknya dan status dollar sebagai mata uang
reserve dapat rusak. “Bahkan sedikit penundaan pembayaran obligasi maupun bunganya dapat menimbulkan sejumlah gangguan pada pasar keuangan dan sistem pembayaran,” ucap Bernanke. Di awal sesi saham melejit menyusul berita
bank sentral Cina menaikkan rasio persyaratan modal perbankan untuk kesembilan kalinya sejak Oktober lalu pasca data menunjukkan kenaikan inflasi ke level tertinggi dalam hampir selama 3 tahun. Berita itu mendorong kenaikan harga logam, mengangkat naik saham sektor industri dan pertambangan. Analis
mengatakan berita tersebut menandakan perekonomian Cina melambat, sehingga mendorong investor untuk beralih ke aset beresiko. Namun Nouriel Roubini mengatakan Cina sedang menghadapi “kemungkinan besar” untuk sebuah perlambatan yang tajam.

***English Version***

 

Chinese Industrial Production bronchioles in Asia

Asian stock markets rose after the data show continuing growth in Chinese industrial production, evidence of this country can keep bamboo curtain
economic growth performance is brilliant. However, inflation rose 5.5%, its highest level 34 months; certainly give a reason for China’s central bank to continue tightening monetary policy. After the Chinese stock exchange closed, the People’s Bank of China announced the increase in minimum reserve requirement by 50 bps Banking, Hang Seng hit immediately after the news was released and ended down 0.1%. The Nikkei rose 1.1%, supported by Asian investors bought more, but fears of slowing global economy could limit the rally more information. Tokyo Electric Power soared 25.1% after the Japanese cabinet approves compensation scheme for victims of Fukushima nuclear crisis. Successful Kospi closed up 1.4% despite worries over the global economic situation made investors cautious, so limit the strengthening of the index. Woori Finance shares rose 0.4% after the government’s plan to express disapproval of participation in the auction KDB Financial Group Woori assets worth $ 6 billion. Chemical sector show recovery after a fall in this month by LG Chemical and Hanwha Chemical rose respectively 1.9% and 6.3%.

 

Energy Sector Stocks Wall Street boost

U.S. stocks despite high levels but still closed up sharply on Tuesday, led by energy sector stocks rise, following a number of Economy data that helped drive the market optimism. “Rally is closely related to technical factors,” said Alan Valdes, director of floor operations at the DME Securities, since markets tend corrected before the expiration of the option contract. Bernanke warned that failure to raise debt limit risk losing the credibility of the United States, said the U.S. could lose its AAA debt rating and the status of the dollar as currency
reserve can be damaged. “Even a modest delay in the payment of bonds or interest thereon may cause some disruption in financial markets and payment system,” Bernanke said. At the beginning of the session shares soared following the news China central bank to raise ratio of bank capital requirements for the ninth time since last October after data showed inflation rising to its highest level in nearly 3 years. The news pushed metal prices, lifting shares rise industrial and mining sectors. Analyst said the news marks the Chinese economy slows down, prompting investors to switch to riskier assets. But Nouriel Roubini said China is facing a “big possibility” for a sharp slowdown.


Asia Stocks Fall on Growth Outlook; Euro Reaches Month’s Low


EMAS
Dollar AS Mixed, Emas dan Perak Stabil

Spot emas stabil hari Senin, setelah merosot hamper 1% disesi sebelumnya, sementara dollar AS mixed – turun terhadap Euro, naik terhadap sekumpulan mata uang dan libur di Australia, diperkirakan membuat perdagangan berjalan tidak menentu. Spot emas bergerak naik 0.2% ke level $1,532.30. Dollar AS turun 0.1% terhadap dollar AS, naik 0,.05% terhadap sekumpulan mata uang rival. Emas berada dalam tekanan setelah Wall Street melanjutkan kembali kejatuhannya mengikuti lemahnya data perdagangan Cina minggu lalu. Harga perak naik 0.2% ke levekl $36.21 setelah merosot lebih dari 3% hari Jumat.

MINYAK
Minyak Minyak Kikis Kejatuhan, Raih $99.29

Kontrak minyak mentah AS kembali meraih level penutupan hari Jumat dilevel $99.29 per barel di perdagangan elektronik pada hari Senin pagi di Asia, setelah merosot dibawah $98.90. Harga untuk pengiriman bulan Juni berada di level $99.29, hanya 2 sen dibawah harga penutupan New York. Kontrak tersebut telah turun dibawah $100 hari Jumat sebagai pertanda bahwa Arab Saudi mungkin akan menaikkan produksi.

EUR/USD
Euro Diguncang Isu Perpecahan Petinggi Eropa

Euro bergerak tertekan di zona merah di sesi pagi hari Senin setelah merosot terhadap Dollar AS di akhir pekan lalu akibat merebaknya lagi kekhawatiran hutang Yunani serta akibat investor mempertimbangkan kembali ekspektasi terhadap kenaikkan suku bunga Bank Sentral Eropa. Mata uang tunggal ini masih berpotensi melanjutkan penurunan karena pasar kembali terfokus pada kecemasan hutang Yunani, serta simpang siurnya berita mengenai perkembangan proses bailout Yunani yang membingungkan, Pelaku pasar dibingungkan oleh keinginan Jerman agar investor swasta turut berkontribusi pada bailout kedua, namun pihak ECB mengutarakan keengganannya menambah bantuan bagi Yunani. Perpecahan pendapat, visi maupun misi di antara para petinggi zona Euro tersebut telah mengguncang pasar valuta sehingga akan menambah kekhawatiran bahwa krisis dapat berlangsung lebih lama dan akan terus menekan Euro.

NIKKEI
Nikkei Rebound, Abaikan Buruknya “Machinery”

Indeks Nikkei Jepang dibuka merosot dengan gap-down terutama akibat jatuhnya data machinery orders, sinyal perlambatan ekonomi global serta anjloknya saham Toyota Motor setelah buruknya perkiraan pendapatan (earnings).
Data core machinery orders Jepang bulan April diluar perkiraan anjlok ke angka -3.3% dari sbelmunya -2.9% dan jauh dbawah ekspektasi +2.2%. Angka yang buruk ini memberikan sinyal bahwa terganggunya pasokan energi tengah menggerus belanja modal (capital expenditure). Namun setelah merosot, Nikkei kembali rebound terkait investor melakukan short covering dan mengabaikan data karena mereka mulai merasakan mungkin sudah saatnya untuk kembali berinvestasi di Nikkei. Menurut sejumlah trader, rendahnya valuasi saham, digelontorkannya program rekonstruksi $300 miliar, optimisme Bank of Japan, dan munculnya tanda pemulihan aktivitas operasional perusahaan Jepang merupakan alasan untuk mengoleksi saham Jepang.

*****English version:

GOLD
U.S. Dollar Mixed, Gold and Silver Stable

Spot gold is stable on Monday, after slumping almost 1% disesi before, while the U.S. dollar mixed – fell against the euro, up against a set of currencies and holidays in Australia, is expected to make a trade run is uncertain. Spot gold moved up 0.2% to as low as $ 1,532.30. U.S. Dollar fell 0.1% against the U.S. dollar, up 0, .05% of a set of rival currencies. Gold came under pressure after Wall Street resumed its fall following the weakness of China’s trade data last week. Silver prices rose 0.2% to levekl $ 36.21 after slumping more than 3% on Friday.

OIL
Oils Fall $ 99.29

U.S. crude contract again reached its closing level Friday dilevel $ 99.29 per barrel in electronic trading on Monday morning in Asia, after slumping below $ 98.90. The price for delivery in June at the level $ 99.29, just 2 cents below the closing price in New York. The contract had fallen below $ 100 on Friday as a sign that Saudi Arabia likely will increase production.

EUR / USD
Euro hit by European Officials Split Issues

Euro moves depressed in the red zone in the morning session on Monday after slumping against the U.S. dollar at the end of last week due to another outbreak of the Greek debt concerns and caused investors to reconsider the increase in interest rate expectations for the European Central Bank. The single currency is still potential to continue the decline as the market re-focused on debt worries Greece, and the intersection siurnya news about the development process of confusing the Greek bailout, market actors confused by the German desire for private investors to contribute to the second bailout, but the ECB expressed reluctance to add assistance to Greece. The split opinions, visions and missions among the top brass has rocked the euro zone currency markets so that will add to fears that the crisis may last longer and will continue to push the Euro.

NIKKEI
Nikkei Rebound, Ignore Bad “Machinery”

Japan’s Nikkei index opened with a gap declined mainly due to the fall-down machinery orders data, signal a global economic slowdown and the slump in shares of Toyota Motor after a bad estimate of income (earnings).
Japan’s core machinery orders data in April fell to figure out the estimated -3.3% from -2.9% and far sbelmunya dbawah expectations of +2.2%. These bad figures signal that the disruption of energy supplies was eroded capital expenditure (capital expenditure). But after a slump, the Nikkei rebound related investors to short covering and ignore the data because they begin to feel it may be time to re-invest in the Nikkei. According to some traders, low stock valuations, digelontorkannya $ 300 billion reconstruction program, optimism Bank of Japan, and emerging signs of recovery of the operational activities of Japanese companies is the reason for collecting Japanese stocks.


Emas Masih Bullish


gold is still Bullish

Jumat, 10 Juni 2011 15:55 WIB
TODAY’S ANALYSIS COMMODITY

Emas mash bertahan dekat level tinggi 5 minggu akibat kecemasan krisis utang zona-euro dan melambatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tingkatkan permintaan logam mulia sebagai instrumen investasi alternatif. ECB kemarin isyaratkan kenaikan suku bunga di bulan Juli meski tingginya biaya pinjaman dapat perburuk krisis yang ancam default Yunani.

“Sepertinya tidak ada jalan keluar dari krisis utang Eropa. Emas masih bullish,” papar Bruce Ikemizu, pimpinan trader komoditas di Standard Bank. “Namun, emas mungkin terperangkap di kisaran 1530 – 1550 seiring pembelian fisik menunggu harga turun di bawah 1530 untuk kembali memborong logam mulia.”  “Emas dalam fase konsolidasi,” ungkap Hou Xinqiang, analis Jinrui Futures.

Investor juga nantikan isyarat Federal Reserve setelah program pembelian obligasi $600 milyar berakhir bulan ini. Fed Beige Book yang dirilis minggu ini melihat masih berlanjutnya pemulihan meski terlihat perlambatan di 4 dari 12 wilayah Fed. Ini tentunya tegaskan alasan Fed’s Bernanke untuk pertahankan stimulus demi topang pemulihan.

 

****

Friday, June 10, 2011 15:55 pm
TODAY’S COMMODITY ANALYSIS

Gold remained near 5 weeks due to high levels of anxiety-euro zone debt crisis and slowing economic growth boost demand for precious metals as an alternative investment instrument. The ECB yesterday suggests rate hike in July despite higher borrowing costs could worsen the crisis which threatened Greek default.

“It seems there is no way out of the debt crisis of Europe. Gold is still bullish,” said Bruce Ikemizu, head of commodities trader at Standard Bank. “However, gold may be trapped in the range 1530 – 1550 in line waiting for the physical purchase price fell below 1530 for the re-buy the precious metal.” “Gold in the consolidation phase,” said Hou Xinqiang, an analyst at Jinrui Futures.

Investors are also looking forward to sign the Federal Reserve after the bond purchase program $ 600 billion ends this month. Fed’s Beige Book, released this week to see the continued recovery despite the slowdown seen in 4 of the 12 Fed regions. It certainly reiterate the reasons the Fed’s Bernanke to maintain the stimulus for the sake of sustaining the recovery.


Aksi Jual Paksa Kospi ke Zona Merah


TODAY’S ANALYSIS STOCK INDEX

Kospi ditutup turun 1.2% di 273.00. Indeks melemah untuk sesi ke tujuh akibat aksi jual yang dilakukan oleh institusi domestik dan investor asing.

Analis mengatakan indeks melemah dikarenakan kenaikan suku bunga BOK dan adanya kekhawatiran mengenai meningkatnya inflasi di Asia. “CPI China dan data penjualan ritel AS akan menjadi fokus pasar pekan depan. Ekspektasi terhadap data sudah rendah maka jika data yang dirilis buruk tidak akan menyeret pasar turun tajam,” menurut analis Daishin Securities, Choi Jai-sic. Sebagian besar saham teknologi ditutup melemah terkait rendahnya ekspektasi investor pada earnings Q2 di tengah sinyal pertumbuhan permintaan barang-barang IT yang lebih rendah dari perkiraan, kata analis.

Samsung Electronics anjlok 1.6% menjadi KRW851,000 dan LG Electronics turun 5.2% menjadi KRW87,000. Sementara Samsung Life Insurance melambung 1.6%  menjadi KRW94,300.

****

Friday, June 10, 2011 14:42 pm
TODAY’S STOCK INDEX ANALYSIS

Kospi closed down 1.2% at 273.00. The index fell for the seventh session due to selling by domestic institutions and foreign investors.

Analysts said the index fell due to higher interest rates BOK and the concern about rising inflation in Asia. “China’s CPI and retail sales data will be the focus of the U.S. market next week. Expectations of data is low, so if bad data released will not be dragging the market down sharply,” according to Daishin Securities analyst, Choi Jai-sic. Most technology stocks closed lower on investor expectations related to the low Q2 earnings amid signs growth in demand for IT goods is lower than expected, analysts said.

Samsung Electronics fell 1.6% to KRW851, 000 and LG Electronics fell 5.2% to KRW87, 000. While Samsung Life Insurance soared 1.6% to KRW94, 300.


EUR Rawan Koreksi Lebih Dalam


Jumat, 10 Juni 2011 13:52 WIB
TODAY’S ANALYSIS FOREX

Pasangan mata uang EUR/USD anjlok hari ini akibat investor Eropa memicu stop-loss selling orders pada level 1.4487. EUR sempat menyentuh 1.4465, kemudian saat ini diperdagangkan pada 1.4479.

Sikap pemodal Eropa dipengaruhi oleh komentar dari Jean-Claude Trichet kemarin. ECB memberi sinyak kenaikan suku bunga pada bulan Juli depan. “EUR/USD bergerak dalam prinsip buy the rumor and sell on fact,” ujar seorang senior dealer bank di Tokyo. Setelah komentar suku bunga, pasar menanti pernyataan ECB soal hutang Yunani. Sikap ECB bisa mempengaruhi tingkat kecemasan pasar terhadap isu lama ini. EUR/USD berpeluang anjlok ke 1.4450, sementara EUR/JPY bertengger di 115.91 dan rentan menuju 115.50.
*****

EUR Prone In-Depth Correction
Friday, June 10, 2011 13:52 pm

TODAY’S FOREX ANALYSIS

Currency pair EUR / USD fell today due to European investors selling triggered stop-loss orders at 1.4487 level. EUR had touched 1.4465, and is currently trading at 1.4479.

The attitude of European investors are influenced by comments from Jean-Claude Trichet yesterday. ECB gives sinyak rate hike in July next. “EUR / USD moves in principle to buy the rumor and sell on fact,”said a senior bank dealer in Tokyo. After the comments in interest rates, market awaits ECB statement about Greek debt. ECB’s attitude can affect the level of market anxiety on the issue recently. EUR / USD likely to fall to 1.4450, while EUR / JPY at 115.91 and vulnerable perched towards 115.50.


Moving Average Tekan Hang Seng ke Bawah 23000


Selasa, 07 Juni 2011 – 09:51 WIB
Moving Average Tekan Hang Seng ke Bawah 23000

Setelah dibuka dengan gap-down, indeks Hang Seng bergerak tertekan dalam range sempit di hari Selasa setelah kemarin tutup berkenaan masa liburan panjang akhir pekan.

Pelemahan bursa Hang Seng ini terutamna akibat investor kembali digelisahkan oleh kekhawatiran soal melambatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi AS.

Secara teknikal beberapa indikator moving average masih mengindikasikan tren bearish untuk indeks bursa Hang Seng. Dengan dibuka gap-down, level support terdekat Hang Seng berada pada area 22650, break ke bawah area ini dapat mengubah bias menjadi bearish menuju area 22550 hingga 22465.
Sementara indikator stochastic Hang Seng cukup kuat juga mengindikasikan fase koreksi bullish untuk jangka pendek menuju 22850 sebelum melanjutkan menguji area psikologis 23000 kembali.

 

****

Tuesday, June 7, 2011 – 9:51 pm
Moving Average Press the Hang Seng to Bottom 23 000

After opening with a gap-down, depressed Hang Seng Index moved in a narrow range on Tuesday after closing yesterday regarding the long holiday weekend.

The Hang Seng stock is weakening due to investors’ return terutamna digelisahkan by concerns about slowing U.S. economic growth.

The moving average technical indicators still indicate a bearish trend for the Hang Seng stock index. With the open gap-down, the Hang Seng nearest support level is at 22 650 area, break down this area could change into a bearish bias towards areas of 22,550 to 22,465.

While the Hang Seng stochastic indicator also indicates a strong enough correction phase bullish for the short term before proceeding to the 22 850 23 000 re-examine the psychological area.

 

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AS Harus Segera Benahi Masalah Hutang


AS Harus Segera Benahi Masalah Hutang

 

Jumat, 03 Juni 2011 17:27 WIB

TODAY’S ANALYSIS STOCK INDEX

Moody’s ancam memangkas peringkat kredit AS jika Gedung Putih dan Kongres tidak capai kesepakatan pada pertengahan Juli untuk naikkan batas hutang. Pada bulan April lalu, Standard & Poor’s juga berikan outlook negatif terhadap peringkat kredit AS akibat kecemasan tidak tercapainya kesepakatan untuk kurangi defisit anggaran dan utang nasional.

Menteri Keuangan Timothy Geithner terus berupaya yakinkan Kongres untuk tingkatkan batas utang dan cegah default. Meski ia cukup puas dengan pertemuan sebelumnya dengan anggota parlemen, tapi beberapa petinggi dari partai Republik tetap menentang kenaikan batas hutang tanpa terapkan pemotongan anggaran belanja. “Saya yakin kesepakatan dapat tercapai pada musim panas ini. AS akan hindari krisis default dan raih kesepakatan atas rencana fiskal jangka panjang,” kata Geithner.

Geithner telah perkirakan bencana keuangan jika Kongres gagal naikkan batas utang $14,3 triliun sebelum 2 Agustus. Kementrian keuangan telah upayakan manajemen kas luar biasa sejak AS capai batas utang pada tanggal 16 Mei lalu.

 


Market Review Hangseng (HSI)


Market Summary ( 19 / 5 / 2011 )

HSI Support : 22900 Resistance : 23400
CEI Support : 12880 Resistance : 13050

Market extends the late rally on the previous session and opens higher. Cyclical Plays gained ground, which stemmed up the market. After a choppy session, HSI closed higher but pared the gain. It finally finished at 23163, up 152 points. The turnover of Blue Chips is $21.3 billion as the total market turnover is $63.1 billion. Recent rallies will probably be short-lived if the turnover of Blue Chips remains thin.

By Technical Analysis, 10-day moving average is now at 23143. 50-day moving average is at 23450. It heads north as it jumps over the 10-day moving average. In the meantime, RSI-14 is 44. It hovers below the 50-mark level, which suggests to staying on weak side. Reading the Stochastic Oscillator, %K climbs above %D as it unveils a buying signal.

Analyzing the medium-term market trend, the previous low ( 17/3/2011 ) is at 22123 while the recent high ( 8/4/2011 ) is 24468. Measuring from the recent high, Fibonacci 0.382 retracement is at 23572. 0.618 retracement is now at 23018. Meanwhile, it recoups the 0.618 retracement, and heads towards 0.382 retracement.

The range of HSI is likely between 22900 and 23400 in coming days. Performance of China Plays will be the key factor for the market direction.


Emas & Perak Koreksi Tipis, Minyak Kembali Pulih


Emas
Emas dan Perak Koreksi Tipis

Emas turun tipis di awal perdagangan pasar Asia akibat penguatan USD, menurut dealer IG Markets, Chris Weston. Spot emas turun $4.50/ons di $1508.60/ons. Kekhawatiran atas isu hutang negara zona Eropa setelah Standard and Poor menurunkan peringkat Yunani sebesar dua notches di hari Senin “bagus untuk emas”, katanya. Perak berada di posisi yang lebih baik dibanding pekan lalu, meski masih ada beberapa bargain hunting tadi malam setelah harga merosot tajam pekan lalu. Spot perak turun 20 sen menjadi $37.51.

MINYAK
Minyak Pulih Diatas $102

Kontrak minyak mentah menebus kejatuhannya pada hari Senin, menguat 5.5% guna bertahan diatas level $102 per barel, seiring kejatuhan minggu lalu memancing pembeli memburu komoditi yang turun. Minyak mentah untuk pengiriman bulan Juni, berakhir sebelumnya naik $5.37 atau 5.5% di level $120.55 per barel di NYMEX, setelah naik ke level $103.40 di momentum penguatan selama beberapa jam sebelum penutupan. Penguatan hari Senin, yang mengembalikan harga ke level $100 untuk pertama kalinya sejak hari Rabu, memberikan pemulihan sebagian dari peralihan minggu lalu, kejatuhan dalam. Minyak mentah anjlok mendekati 15% guna menutup minggu tersebut di level $97.18 per barel, minggu terburuk dalam persentase sejak Desember 2008.

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Gold
Thin Gold and Silver Correction

Gold fell in early trading thin Asian market due to the strengthening of the USD, according to IG Markets dealer, Chris Weston. Spot gold fell $ 4.50/ons at $ 1508.60/ons. Concerns over the issue of euro zone countries debts after Standard and Poor’s downgraded by two notches Greece on Monday “good for gold“, he said. Silver was in a better position than last week, although there are still some bargain hunting last night after the price fell sharply last week. Spot silver fell 20 cents to $ 37.51.

OIL
Oil Recovers Above $ 102

Crude oil contract redeem his ouster on Monday, rose 5.5% to stand above the level of $ 102 per barrel, as the buyer’s downfall last week fishing hunt down commodity. Crude oil for delivery in June, ended earlier rose $ 5.37 or 5.5% at the level of $ 120.55 a barrel on the Nymex, after rising to as low as $ 103.40 at strengthening the momentum for a few hours before closing. Strengthening Monday, which returns the price to as low as $ 100 for the first time since Wednesday, giving the recovery portion of the transition last week, falling inside. Crude oil plunged close to 15% in order to close the week at $ 97.18 per barrel level, as a percentage of worst week since December 2008.


Rally Bursa Dunia Andil Dalam Lejitkan Nikkei


Rabu, 02 Februari 2011 15:37 WIB
Bursa Asia mengalami lonjakan di hari Rabu dan dollar merosot, terkait melejitnya angka manufaktur A.S dan kuatnya laporan earnings perusahaan memberi keyakinan investor untuk berminat kembali ke aset-aset beresiko kendati masih ada pergolakan di Mesir.
Harga komoditas juga kembali menguat, sehingga mendongkrak saham sektor resources akibat adanya sinyal bahwa ekonomi global tengah menguat.
Indeks Nikkei Jepang menguat tajam dalam volume yang besar di hari Rabu setelah pasar global rally akibat kuatnya data manufaktur, pesatnya earnings A.S dan menurunnya kekhawatiran masalah Timur Tengah.
Penguatan indeks Nikkei telah melampaui ekspektasi sebagian para analis terkait sejumlah hedge funds dunia terdeteksi melakukan aksi tutup jual (short covering) dan membeli dalam jumlah besar posisi Nikkei-futures.
Indeks benchmark Nikkei akhirnya ditutup melejit 1.8% atau +182.86 poin ke level 10,457.36. Indeks Nikkei berjangka (SSIc1) ditutup juga rebound 1.75% atau +180 poin ke level 10455.

Dar Wong Analisis


Dar Wong Analysis

Emas Menanti Bull, Bermain Aman di USD/JPY

Pekan lalu USD/JPY berada di kisaran sempit 81.85 – 83.20 dengan minimnya petunjuk arah. Optimisme traders memudar setelah tren penguatan terhenti jumat lalu dan dengan aspek fundamental di Jepang yang belum stabil, Dar Wong menyarankan bermain aman dan menunggu kisaran tadi terlampaui.

Dari EUR/USD terlihat peluang short bagus jika bisa menjaga resisten di 1.3700. Bagaimana dengan GBP minggu ini ?

Emas bergerak sesuai target Kami di 1320, Jumat lalu emas bangkit dari level terendah 108.75. Pekan ini Emas tidak sulit menembus 1320. Bagaimana analisa lengkap tentang Komoditi Emas dan Minyak mentah WTI ?