Becoming Sophisticated About Risk

Posts tagged “Gross domestic product

Market Outlook Today


EMAS

Komoditi Emas mengalami pergerakan melemah di akhir minggu lalu seiring aksi profit taking sehari setelah tercapai kesepakatan mengenai langkah untuk mengatasi krisis utang zona Euro dan juga didukung oleh kenaikan ekuitas dan komoditas, meskipun melemah Emas masih mencatat kenaikan mingguan terbesarnya sejak Januari 2009. Sejumlah investor melakukan aksi profit taking sehari setelah terjadi rally tajam pada sejumlah pasar komoditas dan ekuitas dipicu oleh tercapainya kesepakatan para pemimpin Eropa dalam menyelesaikan krisis utang kawasan zona Eropa. Selama pergerakan seminggu lalu isu utang Eropa telah berhasil mengangkat Emas dan juga logam mulia lainnya, khususnya setelah dolar anjlok berkat isu tersebut.

USD/JPY

Mata uang Jepang Yen di awal minggu ini mengalami pergerakan melemah cukup signifikan terhadap dolar AS seiring para pelaku pasar berspekulasi bahwa otoritas Jepang tidak berusaha melakukan intervensi seperti yang telah digembar – gemborkan sebelumnya, Yen melampaui level tertinggi yang dicapai minggu lalu saat BoJ menjabarkan langkah kebijakan untuk memerangi penguatan Yen yang membabi buta. Menguatnya Yen terhadap dolar juga turut dipicu oleh sentimen terhadap dolar AS yang memang sedang lesu, kemungkinan the Fed akan meluncurkan program QE 3 memberikan sentimen melemah bagi pasar. Di perkirakan mata uang Yen hari ini berpotensi masih melanjutkan pelemahan, meskipun demikian tekanan dari otoritas mungkin akan mulai kelihatan sehingga pasar harus waspada adanya pergerakan yang berbalik arah.

NIKKEI

Bursa saham Jepang pada perdagangan di hari Senin pagi mengalami pergerakan melemah, di akhir bulan Oktober ini bursa saham Jepang terpental melemah seiring dengan sentimen negatif yang di bawa oleh bursa saham Wall Street akhir minggu lalu. Penguatan mata uang Yen yang makin menjadi juga telah memperburuk sentimen di kalangan investor, saham eksportir tampak menerima kekalahan terparah. Adapun saham – saham yang mengalami pelemahan diantaranya adalah Honda, Fanuc, Sony,dan sementara itu saham Toyota bergerak naik tipis. Di perkirakan Indeks Berjangka Nikkei hari ini berpotensi melemah tapi cenderung terbatas.


US Dollar Traders Have to Monitor Debt Talks, Euro Market, Risk Trends


US Dollar Traders Have to Monitor Debt Talks, Euro Market, Risk Trends

By John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist

22 July 2011 21:54 GMT

The US Dollar $USD IndexNY Spot Close 9457.56
US_Dollar_Traders_Have_to_Monitor_Debt_Talks_Euro_Market_Risk_Trends_body_USDOLLAR_risk.png, US Dollar Traders Have to Monitor Debt Talks, Euro Market, Risk Trends

US Dollar Traders Have to Monitor Debt Talks, Euro Market, Risk Trends

Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar: Neutral

The countdown for the US is getting serious. We have concluded another weak where the US government has failed to come to a compromise on its deficit troubles. Further creating troubles for the greenback, we have seen the European funding market (a source of liquidity costs that plays to the dollar’s safe haven status) come into at least a temporary period of relief with a massive bailout effort by the EU; while risk appetite trends have taken a considerable jump to defer that long-threatened collapse. That said, all of these headwinds will do more to anchor the currency than necessarily generate a meaningful trend over the next week.

Heading into the new trading week, the deficit debate carries the greatest potential sway over the dollar. Depending on how this situation evolves; it could have a sweeping effect over the single currency and even the broader financial markets. Yet, it is prudent to work within reasonable probabilities to interpret how this matter will influence the dollar. If our outlook were for two weeks, it would be a virtual guarantee that the greenback is in for significant volatility and even a significant trend. However, our outlook is just for the upcoming week. That being the case, the outlook is far more fluid. Considering the deficit ceiling will be officially breached on August 2nd, there is time for political maneuvering as Democrats and Republicans gain points for sticking to their guns. It is a severely low probability that this situation ends in a technical default and the likelihood of a solution before next weekend is high.

How the deficit solution impacts the dollar and capital markets is a function of what is agreed to. If the limit is simply lifted to avoid the pain of a default event, it could offer temporary relief to capital markets and the greenback in equal parts. That said, the follow through would likely be limited as ratings agencies have warned the reasoning for a downgrade runs beyond just the quick fix and to the lack of long-term fiscal plan. Alternatively, should there be proposal that targets significant deficit reduction over a reasonable timeframe through a revenue (taxes) focus, an expenditure (spending) focus or a mix of both; it could be seen as an effort to pump the break on the economy and withdraw the very stimulus that has driven confidence and capital markets since the Great Recession – which would weigh on risk appetite which adds a safe haven appeal to the dollar as it garners attention for improved outlook for stability. If we end the week without a clear solution; expect volatility to grow increasingly unstable as rumors and headlines spur fear and speculation.

Another major driver for the dollar that fits within the ‘theme’ category is the blowback the greenback bears from the perception of the Euro Zone’s credit health. This past week, officials announced sweeping policy agendas to smother the sense of crisis contagion in the sovereign and private lending markets. There were major efforts adopted; but there are also significant shortfalls. Ultimately it comes down to market sentiment. If the steps taken don’t boost confidence or if risk aversion is an engrained and global driver, the euro will continue its slide and thereby boost its most liquid counterpart: the dollar.

When it comes down to it, these more pervasive and vague problems will determine the dollar’s activity level and general direction. However, there are a few scheduled events that can stir short-term volatility and perhaps even contribute or detract from existing trends. We have consumer confidence and housing sector data; but the real market-mover is the first reading of 2Q GDP. Depending on how risk trends are behaving, the outcome for the dollar can follow risk trends or speculation for additional stimulus. – JK


Growth, Inflation Data and a Rate Decision Make for a Volatile Week


By Christopher Vecchio, Junior Currency Analyst

22 July 2011 20:55 GMT

With the last full week of July ahead, there is significantly more event risk on the docket than the third week in July. Now, as the markets have begun to digest the results of the new bailout of Greece, price action will largely be dictated by key events on the docket, including American and British growth figures, Australian and German consumer price indexes, and a rate decision from the most southern antipodean nation. Still, the markets will continue to listen to jabbering between Democrats and Republicans, as the debt ceiling debacle has still yet to find resolution ahead of the ‘hard’ August 2 deadline.

United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q A): July 26 – 08:30 GMT

The British economy has experienced growth of at least 1.5 percentin each of the past four quarters, on a year-over-year basis, going back to the second quarter of 2010. Surveys indicate that the GDP growth figure released on July 26 will come in at 0.8 percent, well below last quarter’s 1.6 percent pace, on a yearly-basis. Growth forecasts have been revised downwards as the economy has failed to pick up momentum in recent weeks and months, as most recently noted by the Bank of England minutes, released this past week.

Contributing to the downturn has been the persistent Euro-zone debt crisis, which has curtailed investment overseas and demand for British goods. Inflation continues to be stubbornly high at 4.5 percent, more than double the inflation target rate as set by the Bank of England. Although a decline in output should deter further inflation, the priority remains to accelerate economic growth, which is why the central bank has held rates at 0.50 percent for twenty-nice consecutive months.

United States Durable Goods Orders (JUN): July 27 – 12:30 GMT

U.S. Durable Goods Orders are expected to have risen only 0.3 percent after increasing a promising 2.1 percent in May, already revised up from the 1.9 percent initial reading. The increase is still welcomed following a 2.7 percent drop in orders in April. The recent upswing in the closely watched economic indicator is rooted mainly in easing disruptions to factory production in the United States, as supply chain disruptions as a result of the aftermath of the Japanese natural disasters and ensuing earthquake weakened demand. In the fragile U.S. economy, manufacturing has been one of the key areas of strength since the recession abated.

A weaker domestic currency has boosted exports and encouraged manufacturers to continue to make long-term investments. The durable goods orders report is a leading indicator of economic health, and will thus be closely watched to gauge manufacturers’ sentiment and investment activity as the debt ceiling debate looms in the U.S.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision (JUL 28): July 27 – 21:00 GMT

At its last meeting on June 8, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to maintain its key benchmark interest rate at 2.50 percent, on the outlook that the economy is steadily improving following the earthquakes over the past few months. The central bank has determined that the most southern antipodean nation is still in need of stimulus to promote further strengthening. It is widely expected that the key rate will be kept at 2.50 percent at the next monetary policy meeting on July 28, with the Credit Suisse Overnight Index Swaps showing a mere 6.0 percent chance of a 25.0-basis point rate hike. Still, despite such weak expectations, the number of basis points priced into the Kiwi over the next 12-months, 94.0, has boosted the New Zealand Dollar since mid-March.

In spite of such a strong domestic currency, recent data releases indicate that the economy is undergoing robust growth and inflation has risen faster than expected. GDP growth figures released on July 13 came in at 1.4 percent, blowing past a forecast of 0.5 percent growth, while recent inflationary data showed inflation increasing to 5.3 percent, topping expectations of 5.1 percent, on a year-over-year basis. These two important economic indicators will play a major role in determining future the central bank’s cash rate decisions. If the recent growth continues, there is a high probability that there will be a rate hike in September to contain inflationary pressures.

German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL P): July 28 – 04:00 GMT

The German consumer price index has remained steady for the last six months and no change is expected in this figure at the next release next Thursday. According to a Bloomberg News survey, the initial forecast calls for a print of 2.3 percent on a year-over-year basis, matching the number of the previous month. This number is slightly higher than the European Central Bank’s target inflation of “below but close to 2 percent,” but the recent rate hikes enacted by the central bank are expected to help suppress further jumps in inflationary pressures: changes in interest rates take anywhere from two- to six-months to be felt by an economy.

Higher energy prices have been the primary driver keeping inflation above the 2.0 percent mark but “lower food and seasonal food prices can be in part held responsible for the benign pan-German reading.” Since Germany is the Euro-zone’s strongest and largest economy, this reading is closely watched by the European Central Bank as a determinant of their monetary policy decisions.

United States Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (2Q A): July 29 – 12:30 GMT

The U.S. economy is expected to have experienced very slow economic growth in the second quarter of 2011. The GDP data that will be released on July 29 is an indication that output is increasing at a decreasing rate, albeit at a decreasing rate. Forecasts call for a 1.7 percent growth in output versus a 1.9 percent growth experienced in the first quarter, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Two significant factors contributing to the slow recovery include high food and energy prices and supply chain disruptions following the Japan earthquake.

The ongoing debt ceiling debate has reduced consumer confidence as investors concerns grow about the possibility of a U.S. default. The lowered confidence levels have translated into reduced spending impacting the output produced by the world’s largest economy. At the most recent Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, the FOMC revised GDP and unemployment forecasts downwards from their April projections. The change in growth forecasts for 2011 and 2012 have been revised from 3.3 percent to 2.9 percent and from 4.2 percent to 3.7 percent, respectively.

Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst


6 Month Euro Forecast: Looking for the EURUSD at 1.25


6 Month Euro Forecast: Looking for the EURUSD at 1.25

By David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist

13 July 2011 06:00 GMT

The Euro has done well through the first half of 2011, rallying to fresh multi-year highs against the US Dollar and strengthening against almost all G10 counterparts. There remain clear fundamental risks for the single currency in the second half of 2011, and we look for the Euro to fall. The major concern is whether several at-risk countries can remain stable despite clear debt crises. The European Central Bank’s next actions may prove pivotal—especially as the Euro has strengthened on robust interest rate forecasts and is at risk of losses on any significant downgrades. The number of risks to the Euro arguably outweighs those to the US Dollar, leaving us watching for further EURUSD declines. We look for the EUR/USD to end 2011 below 1.25.

European Sovereign Debt Crisis – Where Did We Start and Where Do We Stand?

The euro zone financial debt crisis continues to threaten EUR stability and remains a key risk through the second half of the year. At the forefront of traders’ minds is Greece—can the southern European state withstand market pressures and remain solvent?

Despite a €110 billion three year bailout agreement with the European Union and International Monetary Fund, Greece has yet to see the light at the end of the tunnel. The difficulty lies in the structure of the bailout deal. When the International Monetary Fund agreed to loans, it required that the Greek government return to the debt markets for its borrowing needs as soon as 2012. At the time, this request seemed reasonable. With backstops from the EU and IMF, international investors would be more likely to buy Greek debt. Yet the continuing sell-off in Greek bonds underline that few are willing to hold existing Greek debt—much less buy any newly-issued debt.

The cost to insure against a Greek debt default has recently hit record-highs as seen through Credit Default Swaps, and current sovereign debt ratings imply a 50 percent chance of a Greek default within the coming five years.

A further bailout seems increasingly necessary and likely, but uncertainty over Greece’s ability to repay debts could likewise spread to other at-risk government treasuries.

Spain and Portugal Outlook Uncertain on Funding Needs

The key risk with periphery debt crises has and will always be contagion—will Greece’s troubles affect other periphery nations and even spill into the core through higher bond yields? In absolute terms, bailouts for Greece, Portugal, and Ireland have cost relatively little. Together, the three economies comprise approximately 5 percent of total euro zone Gross Domestic Product. If EMU titans Spain (8.9 percent of GDP) and Italy (12.8 percent of GDP) fall into trouble, however, European coffers may not be able to cope with the required fiscal aid.

The spread between benchmark Spanish and German government bond yields has recently widened to its largest since the inception of the euro—implying that Spain’s relative debt risk is worsening. And though a 10-year Spanish government bond yield of approximately 5.5 percent is low by historical standards, the widening gulf could further exacerbate government deficits. Much the same can be said for Italy. A key question is whether bond troubles in periphery nations can spread to the core, truly threatening the stability of the single currency zone.

Of course, there have been plenty of reasons that the euro has strengthened despite these readily apparent sovereign debt crises.

European Central Bank – Can They Continue to Hike Rates?

Expectations that the European Central Bank will be among the most aggressive central banks in raising interest rates has driven speculative interest in the euro, pushing the price up in the first half of this year. A key question will be whether the ECB will follow through on lofty forecasts and continue to raise interest rates, further supporting the currency.

Robust interest rate forecasts have driven the euro higher against the US Dollar and Japanese Yen—currencies that hold the dubious honor of the two lowest-yielding among the industrialized world.

Overnight Index Swaps, a tool used by major financial institutions to bet on and hedge against interest rate moves, show that traders expect the ECB could raise rates three times through the second half of 2012 in order to head off inflation in the Euro Zone. This compares to forecasts that the US Federal Reserve will leave interest rates roughly unchanged through the same stretch. The Bank of Japan is similarly forecast to leave monetary policy effectively unchanged and to keep Japanese short-term interest rates near zero.

Yet in markets nothing is guaranteed, and indeed we might argue that the euro has seen about all of the yield-linked support it will enjoy. That is to say, it would likely take a material improvement in ECB forecasts (and subsequent rate hikes) to continue driving EUR gains.

Can the European Central Bank continue to set hawkish monetary policy despite clear economic and fiscal struggles in periphery nations? ECB President Jean Claude Trichet has continued to emphasize that the central bank sets policy for the whole of the monetary union and cannot ignore mounting inflationary pressures. Yet with fiscal austerity packages guaranteed across the euro zone, demand-driven inflation could quickly abate and lessen the need for tightened policy.

All else remaining equal, the euro would almost certainly fall on a sharp downgrade in ECB interest rate expectations. Of course, nothing ever remains equal in financial markets and there are a number of mitigating factors that could strongly affect the single currency.

Financial Markets Continue to Drive Currencies

The euro remains a currency closely linked to equities markets, with the EUR/USD tending to rise with stocks, and tending to fall when stocks fall. Further market turmoil could almost certainly derail the recent EUR strength. The correlation between the Euro/US Dollar currency pair and the US Dow Jones Industrial Average has recently been trading near record levels; Dow variation has theoretically explained up to 45 percent of Euro movements. Part of this relationship is the US Dollar’s appeal as the currency of many popular “safe” investments—most notably US Treasury Bonds. On the other side of it, the euro is arguably among the most at-risk assets in financial market upheaval as debt market difficulties could further exacerbate the current European sovereign debt crises.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average limped into the second half of the year, declining for six consecutive trading weeks and posting its worst performance in nearly a decade. It should come as relatively little surprise that especially sharp equities sell-offs forced EURUSD weakness, and indeed a continuation could see the US Dollar further regain ground against its high-flying European counterpart.

Euro in Favorable Long-Term Trend but with Considerable Risks in the Second Half of 2011

The Euro remains well within a decade-long uptrend against the US Dollar, but the medium-term outlook is fraught with risk as doubts remain about euro zone economic and political stability. Of course, the US Dollar is not without its own issues and actual EURUSD price action will depend on a great number of different dynamics.

Whether or not the euro remains in its broader uptrend will greatly depend on developments in sovereign debt crises and market expectations regarding the European Central Bank. It seems that risks generally favor Euro losses, and indeed our forecast remains bearish into the end of 2011.


Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis Further Deteriorates, So Why the Bounce?


Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis Further Deteriorates, So Why the Bounce?

By John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist

13 July 2011 04:13 GMT
  • Dollar and Equities Traders Look for Mentions of QE3 from Bernanke
  • Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis Further Deteriorates, So Why the Bounce?
  • British Pound Follows Risk Trends More Closely than Inflation Data
  • Australian Dollar Finds a Temperate Boost from Chinese GDP
  • New Zealand Dollar Gets a Second Attempt at 1Q GDP Figures
  • Japanese Yen Sees Early Session Surge But Strength Quickly Retraced
  • Gold Rally Continues, Record High Close as Financial Stability Questioned

Dollar and Equities Traders Look for Mentions of QE3 from Bernanke

If the dollar (ticker = USDollar) were in charge of its own fortunes, it wouldn’t have suffered the sharp reversal the market impressed through the European and US trading hours Tuesday. The price action through the previous trading day reminds us that the greenback is at the mercy of larger fundamental themes; and the currency will continue to find its bearings through these strong market winds through the foreseeable future. Tracking following the now-familiar correlations, the high level of market volatility made even easier to spot the dollar’s reflection of risk appetite trends. Our favored benchmark for sentiment trends, S&P 500 futures, managed to break the most aggressive decline in over a month with a sharp, bullish recover before New York liquidity came online. The unusually active overnight session lined up perfectly with EURUSD, pulling the currency back up to the important 1.40 figure that signaled progress on the pair’s bearish progress the session before. Now, with the benchmark exchange rate resting once again at this critical figure; the debate over direction and momentum are once again the responsibility of speculators.

From the fundamental side of the equation, market sentiment was guided by the preoccupation with the European sovereign debt situation – hence the intraday reversal. With Ireland finding itself sovereign debt rating lowered to ‘junk’ status (more on that below), the situation has tangibly deteriorated; but the speculative spirit would respond quickly to the quick fix offered in rumors of ECB purchases of EU member bonds. This temporary relief would turn a quick profit taking on risk-aversion position; and lead market participants to wait for the next catalyst for direction. For scheduled event risk, data did little to encourage risk trends or the US recovery. The May trade deficit swelled much more than expected to a $50.2 billion shortfall while the NFIB reported an unexpected slip in small business confidence (the group responsible for the greatest segment of employment in the country). Most notable, though, was the minutes from the FOMC decision. This looked like a write-off event after Chairman Bernanke’s press conference following the decision; but the notes proved noteworthy. On one hand, a few members spoke to the need for further stimulus should growth not curb unemployment; but there was also a consensus on the “steps” for stimulus withdrawal.

Perhaps this mixed view will come up in Bernanke’s testimony in the upcoming New York session. The central banker is scheduled to deliver his semi-annual policy report to Congress; and politicians have better access to grill than the regular market participant. Given the discussions circulating in headlines and amongst trading forums, there is considerable speculation of a QE3 announcement. That is unlikely given the steady progress of policy to this point and the trouble with eventually drawing down a larger safety net. Then again, anything is possible nowadays.

Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis Further Deteriorates, So Why the Bounce?

Having plunged in the previous two active trading sessions (and fallen over 500 points in the span of 5 days against the greenback), the euro was due for a correction. The initial tumble Tuesday morning was largely influenced by prevailing market concerns; but some credit should be given to comments offered by new IMF head Lagarde. The real buying momentum for the day, however, falls to rumors that the ECB purchased Italian and Spanish sovereign bonds after their dramatic selloff the previous day. A bid from the policy officials is a well-known temporary fix; but the hold over form this effort is certainly in question after Moody’s downgraded Ireland’s credit rating to ‘Junk’ and pegged it with a negative outlook. The immediate impact was muted; but this was the same general reaction to the Portugal incident the previous week. We now have two countries whose debt will have to be purged by high quality portfolios and a crisis spreading to the EU core. Temporary fixes won’t cut it.

British Pound Follows Risk Trends More Closely than Inflation Data

Between bullish and bearish scenarios for the UK CPI data; the latter had the greater potential for impact. That said, a notable slip from the headline reading to 4.2 percent clip wouldn’t rouse much of a reaction from the sterling. This reflects a complete lack of interest in rate speculation. Alternatively, the jobs figures could tap into concerns over the impact of austerity efforts on growth and perk up volatility.

Australian Dollar Finds a Temperate Boost from Chinese GDP

Business and consumer confidence data populated the Australian docket Tuesday and Wednesday respectively; but its influence over the market was notable anemic. Those trading the high-yield currency are more concerned with larger risk trends and longer-term economic trends. That said, a 2Q GDP reading from China (the slowest since 3Q 2009 but still 9.5 percent) didn’t seem to alter carry interests much.

New Zealand Dollar Gets a Second Attempt at 1Q GDP Figures

Last week, the market was preparing for the release of 1Q GDP figures from New Zealand; but the statistics group decided to push the data’s release back. Now, we are once again in the countdown to the release and expectations of a 0.3 percent increase in growth reflect a decent performance for the country. Yet, for a currency that has rallied on flimsy fundamentals; a disappointment can push the tipping point.

Japanese Yen Sees Early Session Surge But Strength Quickly Retraced

The Bank of Japan boosted its outlook for the economy for the second month with the commentary from its policy decision; but the downgrade to year-end 2012 GDP forecasts hung heavy. Yet, yen traders know that generated little interest for the currency. Wednesday morning, a big flush after the session rollover would expose low liquidity and spark a sharp rally. But without carry unwinding to back it up, it was quickly retraced.

Gold Rally Continues, Record High Close as Financial Stability Questioned

With Bernanke on tap tomorrow, the US 2Q earnings season starting soon, the budget ceiling countdown running, Ireland downgraded to ‘junk’ status, and the Portuguese central bank downgrading growth forecasts; there is plenty of reason to avoid exposure to the largest economies and their troubled markets. What are the viable alternatives to something as familiar and liquid as currencies: gold is at the top of the short list.

ECONOMIC DATA

Next 24 Hours

GMT Currency Release Survey Previous Comments
0:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (JUL) -2.6% May indicate rate of consumer consumption going into Fall months
0:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (JUL) 101.2
2:00 CNY Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (JUN) 13.9% 14.0% Slower production could mean PBoC tightening working
2:00 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN) 13.1% 13.3%
2:00 CNY Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD (YoY) (JUN) 25.7% 25.8%
2:00 CNY Real GDP YTD (QoQ) (2Q) 2.1% If the GDP slows, it may indicate spending will decrease. However if GDP continues to grow, may lead to continued tightening
2:00 CNY Real GDP YTD (YoY) (2Q) 9.5% 9.7%
2:00 CNY Real GDP (QoQ)(2Q) 2.1%
2:00 CNY Real GDP (YoY) (2Q) 9.0% 9.7%
2:00 CNY Retail Sales YTD YoY (JUN) 16.7% 16.6% Retail sales is usually correlated with inflation, may suggest PBoC plans
2:00 CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN) 17.0% 16.9%
4:30 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (MAY F) 5.7% Japanese industrial data could suggest demand for raw materials
4:30 JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY F) -5.9%
4:30 JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (MAY) -1.1%
6:00 EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (JUN) -0.2% 0.0% Wholesale prices expected to fall slightly, reduction may pass onto CPI
6:00 EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (JUN) 8.8% 8.9%
7:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (JUN) -0.3% -0.2% Production import prices may have little bearing on future SNB decisions
7:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (JUN) -0.3% -0.4%
8:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate (JUN) 4.7% 4.6% Newest British employment data could show weakness in labor market, possibly pointing to a slowdown in the overall economy
8:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change (JUN) 15K 19.6K
8:30 GBP Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY (MAY) 2.1% 1.8%
8:30 GBP Weekly Earnings exBonus 3M/YoY (MAY) 2.0% 2.0%
8:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (MAY) 7.7% 7.7%
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (MAY) 4.8% 5.3% Year over year industrial production expected to slow as world economy weaker
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (MAY) 0.4% 0.2%
11:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (JUL 8) -5.2% Data may point to real estate health
12:30 USD Import Price Index (MoM) (JUN) -0.6% 0.2% Year-over-year import prices expected to be driven upwards by raw materials costs
12:30 USD Import Price Index (YoY) (JUN) 13.2% 12.5%
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUL 8) -889K Energy levels expected to drop as demand keeps falling due to slower domestic economy
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (JUL 8) -634K
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (JUL 8) 0.3%
14:30 USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (JUL 8) -460K
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (JUL 8) -191K
18:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement (JUN) -$65.5B -$57.6B Budget deficit expected to widen to Aug 2
22:30 NZD Business NZ PMI (JUN) 54.7 Business survey has trended up
22:45 NZD GDP Q1 (YoY) 0.5% 0.8% First quarter output expected to be lower, largely due to Christchurch earthquake
22:45 NZD GDP Q1 (QoQ) 0.3% 0.2%
GMT Currency Upcoming Events & Speeches
5:00 JPY Bank of Japan Monthly Economic Report
14:00 USD Bernanke Delivers Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report to House

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE – 18:00 GMT

Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist 2 1.5160 1.6600 89.00 0.9345 1.0275 1.1800 0.8400 118.00 146.05
Resist 1 1.5000 1.6300 86.00 0.8900 1.0000 1.1000 0.8300 113.50 140.00
Spot 1.3976 1.5913 79.24 0.8306 0.9666 1.0598 0.8181 110.74 126.10
Support 1 1.4000 1.5935 79.00 0.8300 0.9500 1.0400 0.7745 109.00 125.00
Support 2 1.3700 1.5750 75.00 0.8250 0.9055 1.0200 0.6850 106.00 119.00

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE –EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMTSCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT

Currency USD/MXN USD/TRY USD/ZAR USD/HKD USD/SGD Currency USD/SEK USD/DKK USD/NOK
Resist 2 13.8500 1.7425 7.4025 7.8165 1.3650 Resist 2 7.5800 5.6625 6.1150
Resist 1 12.5000 1.6730 7.3500 7.8075 1.3250 Resist 1 6.5175 5.3100 5.7075
Spot 11.7927 1.6465 6.8786 7.7948 1.2252 Spot 6.5865 5.3360 5.5990
Support 1 11.5200 1.5725 6.5575 7.7490 1.2145 Support 1 6.0800 5.1050 5.3040
Support 2 11.4400 1.5040 6.4295 7.7450 1.2000 Support 2 5.8085 4.9115 4.9410

INTRA-DAY PIVOT POINTS 18:00 GMT

Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist 2 1.4183 1.6049 80.81 0.8444 0.9843 1.0735 0.8390 114.46 129.09
Resist 1 1.4080 1.5981 80.02 0.8375 0.9755 1.0667 0.8286 112.60 127.59
Pivot 1.3958 1.5881 79.60 0.8329 0.9690 1.0596 0.8198 111.09 126.36
Support 1 1.3855 1.5813 78.81 0.8260 0.9602 1.0528 0.8094 109.23 124.86
Support 2 1.3733 1.5713 78.39 0.8214 0.9537 1.0457 0.8006 107.72 123.63

INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

\Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist. 3 1.4172 1.6068 80.01 0.8411 0.9760 1.0736 0.8290 112.28 127.68
Resist. 2 1.4123 1.6029 79.82 0.8385 0.9736 1.0701 0.8263 111.90 127.29
Resist. 1 1.4074 1.5991 79.62 0.8359 0.9713 1.0667 0.8236 111.51 126.89
Spot 1.3976 1.5913 79.24 0.8306 0.9666 1.0598 0.8181 110.74 126.10
Support 1 1.3878 1.5835 78.86 0.8253 0.9619 1.0529 0.8126 109.97 125.31
Support 2 1.3829 1.5797 78.66 0.8227 0.9596 1.0495 0.8099 109.58 124.91
Support 3 1.3780 1.5758 78.47 0.8201 0.9572 1.0460 0.8072 109.20 124.51

v

Written by: John Kicklighter, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


IMF Pangkas Perkiraan GDP AS


Sabtu, 18 Juni 2011 02:34 WIB
TODAY’S ANALYSIS FOREX

International Monetary Fund memangkas perkiraan pertumbuhan ekonomi AS pada hari Jumat dan memperingatkan pihak Washington dan negara yang terserang hutang di Eropa bahwa mereka sedang “bermain-main dengan api” kecuali jika mereka mengambil langkah cepat untuk memangkas defisit anggaran mereka. IMF, dalam penilai rutin mengenai prospek ekonomi global, mengatakan ancaman yang lebih besar terhadap pertumbuhan telah mulai bermunculan sejak laporan sebelumnya di bulan April, terkait krisis hutang di zona Eropa dan tanda overheating pada pasar perekonomian berkembang.

IMF yang berbasis di Washington memperkirakan GDP AS akan bertumbuh sebesar 2.5% tahun ini dan 2.7% di tahun 2012, dibandingkan perkiraan 2 bulan lalu masing-masing sebesar 2.8% dan 2.9%. Sedangkan mengenai perekonomian global secara keseluruhan, IMF menggunakan nada yang netral, mengatakan perlambatan di beberapa bulan belakangan ini akan bersifat “sementara.” IMF juga memangkas perkiraan untuk pertumbuhan global tahun ini menjadi 4.3% dari 4.4%, dan mempertahankan perkiraannya untuk pertumbuhan ekonomi Cina yang kuat sebesar 9.6% kendati tanda perlambatan di sana belakangan ini. Kendati demikian, IMF memperingatkan outlook global yang bagus dapat sekejap turun jika pemerintah di AS dan Eropa tidak mulai menunjukkan kepemimpinan dalam mengatasi permasalahan hutang negaranya.
***EnglishVersion***

IMF cuts U.S. GDP forecast

TODAY’S FOREX ANALYSIS
International Monetary Fund cut its U.S. economic growth forecast on Friday and warned the country that attacked Washington and in European debt that they are “playing with fire” unless they take immediate measures to cut their budget deficits. The IMF, in a regular appraiser on the global economic outlook, said the greater threat to growth has begun to emerge since the previous report in April, related to the debt crisis in the euro zone and the sign of overheating in the market economy develops.

Washington-based IMF estimates that U.S. GDP will grow 2.5% this year and 2.7% in 2012, compared to the projected two months ago respectively of 2.8% and 2.9%. As for the overall global economy, the IMF uses a neutral tone, saying the slowdown in recent months will be “temporary.” The IMF also cut its forecast for global growth this year to 4.3% from 4.4%, and sustain economic growth forecasts for China strong at 9.6% despite signs of a slowdown in there lately. Nevertheless, the IMF warned the global outlook is good can snap off if the government in the U.S. and Europe did not begin to show leadership in addressing the debt problems of the country.


Harapan Pemulihan Ekonomi Global Pudar?


Sabtu, 28 Mei 2011 – 02:16 WIB

Harapan Pemulihan Ekonomi Global Pudar?

Tahun yang seharusnya menjadi titik balik perekonomian AS dan global untuk dapat pulih malah tidak menunjukkan adanya tanda-tanda pemulihan. Pada saat ketika keadaan seharusnya dapat membaik, namun kenyataanya keadaan malah memburuk: harga komoditas mengikis tingkat belanja konsumen, rendahnya tingkat suku bunga belum dapat membantu sektor perumahan, dan pemulihan di sektor pasar tenaga kerja juga kehilangan lajunya.

 

Apakah kemudian terlalu dini untuk mengatakan adanya resesi kembali (double dip) ?

 

Ekonom sedang sibuk merevisi perkiraan mereka untuk GDP , tingkat pengangguran dan beberapa dari mereka masih berpikiran pertumbuhan akan berlanjut di tahun ini. Namun kenaikan pada GDP di AS dan seluruh dunia nampaknya akan lebih lambat dari antisipasi pasar. “Perekonomian nampaknya mulai tertekan seiring memasuki awal tahun ini,” menurut Capital Economics dalam analisis outlook tahun 2011. “Pertumbuhan GDP telah bertambah cepat dalam beberapa bulan terakhir tahun lalu, survei aktivitas menyentuh level tinggi dalam beberapa tahun, dan juga diambilnya stimulus fiskal dan moneter.”

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Market Review AS & Eropa


Market Review AS & Eropa:

Euro tertekan pada hari Senin, menjauh dari level resisten kunci seiring ketidakpastian mengenai bagaimana penanganan krisis hutang Yunani membuat investor menahan diri, sementara dollar stabil menyusul penurunan pekan lalu. Emas bertahan dekat level tinggi 3 minggu dan perak ditutup naik pada perdagangan sepi hari Senin. Data ekonomi hari ini adalah manufacturing PMI, household spending, unemployment rate, average cash earnings, housing starts, dan industrial production dari Jepang, building approvals, current account, dan private sector credit dari Australia, GDP Swiss, retail sales dan unemployment change dari Jerman, CPI dan jobless rate dari zona Eropa, serta S&P/CS composite HPI, Chicago PMI, dan consumer confidence dari AS. Nikkei diperkirakan akan bergerak dalam kisaran 9,490-9,640.

EUR/USD closing 1.4283, high 1.4312, low 1.4254, XAUUSD C:1538.35, H:1538.60, L:1534.55

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Market Review Eropa


Market Review Eropa :

Euro reli vs dollar setelah data pertumbuhan Prancis & Jerman yang positif memicu spekulasi solidnya ekonomi zona Eropa akan mempertahankan tingkat suku bunga Eropa lebih tinggi dibanding AS, sementara kekhawatiran pertumbuhan malah menekan poundsterling. Saham Eropa terkerek naik oleh laporan GDP Jerman yang melampaui perkiraaan serta melambungnya harga komoditi.

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Dar Wong Analysis: Fundamental Dukung EUR, Minyak Sulit Terkoreksi


Dar Wong Analysis
Fundamental Dukung EUR, Minyak Sulit Terkoreksi

7 Maret 2011
EURO menembus 1.3850 pekan lalu setelah tingginya harga minyak menghantam USD. Pekan ini kami melihat resisten kuat di level 1.4050, tekanan jual akan terjadi ketika EUR menyentuh area 1.4200. Rangkaian faktor fundamental diperkirakan akan mengangkat EURO lebih tinggi.
Harga minyak mentah WTI melonjak ke kisaran 105.00 dan ditutup dekat kisaran atas pekan lalu. Apabila ketegangan Libya meluas ke Aljazair, minyak akan dengan mudah mendekati 120.00 dalam beberapa pekan ke depan. Jika jatuh ke bawah 100.00, minyak akan bergerak sampai 96.00. Namun kemungkinan terjadinya koreksi ini sangat kecil.

 

 

 

Bagaimana Dar Wong menganalisa USD/JPY, GBP/USD dan Emas minggu ini?

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