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Posts tagged “Greece

Euro trades Sharply Higher on Greek Deal – What’s Next?


By David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist

22 July 2011 23:59 GMT

euro_trades_higher_greek_deal_forecast_body_Picture_5.png, Euro trades Sharply Higher on Greek Deal – What’s Next?

Euro trades Sharply Higher on Greek Deal – What’s Next?

Fundamental Forecast for the Euro: Neutral

The Euro rallied sharply against the US Dollar on a breakthrough agreement on further aid for Greece, closing a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the at-risk country and for the broader euro zone. Officials released details of a far-reaching agreement and offered concrete details on further fiscal aid for periphery nations. A pronounced rally across European bond markets and the euro itself underlined that plans were well-received, but a key week for European economic data could ultimately decide euro price action in the days ahead.

Euro zone periphery debt crises are far from over, but the recent agreement ostensibly puts market focus back on economic fundamentals and not on government solvency. Key German Unemployment Change, Consumer Price Index, and Retail Sales figures could subsequently force sharp moves across euro pairs.

The euro had strengthened significantly against the US Dollar and other major counterparts as markets predicted the European Central Bank would be among the most aggressive to raise interest rates from record-lows. Indeed, the ECB has since hiked target rates by 0.50 percent, and Overnight Index Swaps have priced in another 33bps through the coming 12 months. The US Federal Reserve, by comparison, has left interest rates at record lows and traders predict a mere 17bps in interest rate increases through the same stretch. Interest rate differentials favor further EURUSD strength, but it will be important to see momentum remain in favor of further euro gains—especially on key data.

Expectations call for German and broader European Consumer Price Index inflation remained above the ECB’s official target of 2.0 percent through July, and central bank president Jean Claude Trichet has been resolute in calling for fairly aggressive monetary policy measures on elevated price pressures. It will be important to watch for surprises in CPI results as well as employment figures, as both are likely to figure into future ECB moves.

Ultimately, the euro’s direction against key counterparts should depend on traditional fundamentals—not ongoing struggles with periphery nation debt. There remain details that need to be sorted out with the new deal on Greek debt, and individual parliaments must ratify the deal. Yet the long-term nature of the deal suggests troubles with Greece are less relevant to day-to-day price action. Spanish and Italian bond yield surges remain a concern, but stability at or around current levels would decrease fears of further debt stresses.

The Euro/US Dollar has traded to key resistance at a falling trendline from May lows, and whether or not the pair can move above $1.44 could set the tone for the coming months of trade. We will watch European data with great interest, while ongoing developments surrounding US debt ceiling concerns could likewise affect USD pairs. – DR

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6 Month Euro Forecast: Looking for the EURUSD at 1.25


6 Month Euro Forecast: Looking for the EURUSD at 1.25

By David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist

13 July 2011 06:00 GMT

The Euro has done well through the first half of 2011, rallying to fresh multi-year highs against the US Dollar and strengthening against almost all G10 counterparts. There remain clear fundamental risks for the single currency in the second half of 2011, and we look for the Euro to fall. The major concern is whether several at-risk countries can remain stable despite clear debt crises. The European Central Bank’s next actions may prove pivotal—especially as the Euro has strengthened on robust interest rate forecasts and is at risk of losses on any significant downgrades. The number of risks to the Euro arguably outweighs those to the US Dollar, leaving us watching for further EURUSD declines. We look for the EUR/USD to end 2011 below 1.25.

European Sovereign Debt Crisis – Where Did We Start and Where Do We Stand?

The euro zone financial debt crisis continues to threaten EUR stability and remains a key risk through the second half of the year. At the forefront of traders’ minds is Greece—can the southern European state withstand market pressures and remain solvent?

Despite a €110 billion three year bailout agreement with the European Union and International Monetary Fund, Greece has yet to see the light at the end of the tunnel. The difficulty lies in the structure of the bailout deal. When the International Monetary Fund agreed to loans, it required that the Greek government return to the debt markets for its borrowing needs as soon as 2012. At the time, this request seemed reasonable. With backstops from the EU and IMF, international investors would be more likely to buy Greek debt. Yet the continuing sell-off in Greek bonds underline that few are willing to hold existing Greek debt—much less buy any newly-issued debt.

The cost to insure against a Greek debt default has recently hit record-highs as seen through Credit Default Swaps, and current sovereign debt ratings imply a 50 percent chance of a Greek default within the coming five years.

A further bailout seems increasingly necessary and likely, but uncertainty over Greece’s ability to repay debts could likewise spread to other at-risk government treasuries.

Spain and Portugal Outlook Uncertain on Funding Needs

The key risk with periphery debt crises has and will always be contagion—will Greece’s troubles affect other periphery nations and even spill into the core through higher bond yields? In absolute terms, bailouts for Greece, Portugal, and Ireland have cost relatively little. Together, the three economies comprise approximately 5 percent of total euro zone Gross Domestic Product. If EMU titans Spain (8.9 percent of GDP) and Italy (12.8 percent of GDP) fall into trouble, however, European coffers may not be able to cope with the required fiscal aid.

The spread between benchmark Spanish and German government bond yields has recently widened to its largest since the inception of the euro—implying that Spain’s relative debt risk is worsening. And though a 10-year Spanish government bond yield of approximately 5.5 percent is low by historical standards, the widening gulf could further exacerbate government deficits. Much the same can be said for Italy. A key question is whether bond troubles in periphery nations can spread to the core, truly threatening the stability of the single currency zone.

Of course, there have been plenty of reasons that the euro has strengthened despite these readily apparent sovereign debt crises.

European Central Bank – Can They Continue to Hike Rates?

Expectations that the European Central Bank will be among the most aggressive central banks in raising interest rates has driven speculative interest in the euro, pushing the price up in the first half of this year. A key question will be whether the ECB will follow through on lofty forecasts and continue to raise interest rates, further supporting the currency.

Robust interest rate forecasts have driven the euro higher against the US Dollar and Japanese Yen—currencies that hold the dubious honor of the two lowest-yielding among the industrialized world.

Overnight Index Swaps, a tool used by major financial institutions to bet on and hedge against interest rate moves, show that traders expect the ECB could raise rates three times through the second half of 2012 in order to head off inflation in the Euro Zone. This compares to forecasts that the US Federal Reserve will leave interest rates roughly unchanged through the same stretch. The Bank of Japan is similarly forecast to leave monetary policy effectively unchanged and to keep Japanese short-term interest rates near zero.

Yet in markets nothing is guaranteed, and indeed we might argue that the euro has seen about all of the yield-linked support it will enjoy. That is to say, it would likely take a material improvement in ECB forecasts (and subsequent rate hikes) to continue driving EUR gains.

Can the European Central Bank continue to set hawkish monetary policy despite clear economic and fiscal struggles in periphery nations? ECB President Jean Claude Trichet has continued to emphasize that the central bank sets policy for the whole of the monetary union and cannot ignore mounting inflationary pressures. Yet with fiscal austerity packages guaranteed across the euro zone, demand-driven inflation could quickly abate and lessen the need for tightened policy.

All else remaining equal, the euro would almost certainly fall on a sharp downgrade in ECB interest rate expectations. Of course, nothing ever remains equal in financial markets and there are a number of mitigating factors that could strongly affect the single currency.

Financial Markets Continue to Drive Currencies

The euro remains a currency closely linked to equities markets, with the EUR/USD tending to rise with stocks, and tending to fall when stocks fall. Further market turmoil could almost certainly derail the recent EUR strength. The correlation between the Euro/US Dollar currency pair and the US Dow Jones Industrial Average has recently been trading near record levels; Dow variation has theoretically explained up to 45 percent of Euro movements. Part of this relationship is the US Dollar’s appeal as the currency of many popular “safe” investments—most notably US Treasury Bonds. On the other side of it, the euro is arguably among the most at-risk assets in financial market upheaval as debt market difficulties could further exacerbate the current European sovereign debt crises.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average limped into the second half of the year, declining for six consecutive trading weeks and posting its worst performance in nearly a decade. It should come as relatively little surprise that especially sharp equities sell-offs forced EURUSD weakness, and indeed a continuation could see the US Dollar further regain ground against its high-flying European counterpart.

Euro in Favorable Long-Term Trend but with Considerable Risks in the Second Half of 2011

The Euro remains well within a decade-long uptrend against the US Dollar, but the medium-term outlook is fraught with risk as doubts remain about euro zone economic and political stability. Of course, the US Dollar is not without its own issues and actual EURUSD price action will depend on a great number of different dynamics.

Whether or not the euro remains in its broader uptrend will greatly depend on developments in sovereign debt crises and market expectations regarding the European Central Bank. It seems that risks generally favor Euro losses, and indeed our forecast remains bearish into the end of 2011.


Gold – FOREX Correlations Weaken as Gold Regains Safe Haven Status


Gold – FOREX Correlations Weaken as Gold Regains Safe Haven Status

The following table includes the correlation between gold and the most popular currency pairs over various timeframes. A value close to +1 indicates a strong positive relationship between gold and the pair, while a value close to -1 indicates a strong negative relationship.

———————————————————————————————————————————

Gold USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF
3 Day 15 Min -0.10 -0.17 0.03 0.20 0.27 0.44 -0.29
1 Week 60 Min 0.71 -0.58 0.44 -0.47 0.16 0.39 -0.39
2 Week 60 Min 0.41 -0.35 -0.21 -0.56 -0.44 -0.65 0.58
1 Month Daily -0.53 0.66 0.79 0.51 0.64 0.34 -0.57

Weekly Commentary: Correlations between major commodity currencies and gold fell further this week as developments in Europe and Greece prompted investors to sell currencies in favor of metals. Furthermore, mid-week US dollar strengthening on risks of more problems with Greek re-profiling was also met with buyers entering the metals market once more to take advantage of the recent dive.

Despite the weaker correlation between major commodity currencies and gold, the connection still remains largely intact as some signals of a US and Chinese industrial strengthening are prompting investors to enter the industrial and base metals market. Because of the tight connection between base metals and precious metals, as well as Australia’s position as a major iron and copper ore producer, the correlation between the AUDUSD as well as other currencies may improve.

Gold-Forex_Correlations_05272011_body_Picture_6.png, Gold - FOREX Correlations Weaken as Gold Regains Safe Haven StatusGold-Forex_Correlations_05272011_body_Picture_8.png, Gold - FOREX Correlations Weaken as Gold Regains Safe Haven Status

For real time news and analysis, please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news


FOREX: Dollar Can’t Recover Ground on Holiday Trading Conditions


TODAY FOREX ANALYSIS

  • Dollar Can’t Recover Ground on Holiday Trading Conditions
  • Euro: Positive Turn in Greece Funding Curbed by Another S&P Warning
  • Australian Dollar Misses Risk Run, Moving on to RBA Decision
  • British Pound Marks a Slow Start to an Event-Heavy Week
  • Swiss Franc Tumbling Quickly as Specific Safe Haven Appeal Fades
  • Japanese Yen Fortified by BoJ’s Positive Outlook, Eased Political Pressure
  • Gold Recovery Lacking for Momentum Until Fiat Demand Weighed

Dollar Can’t Recover Ground on Holiday Trading Conditions

The opening trading day to the week was an unusual one. On the one hand, we had significant fundamental event risk headed up by the ongoing Greek bailout saga. Alternatively, liquidity conditions were distorted by the absence of US market participation due to the extended Independence Day holiday weekend. The combination of these two atypical developments was a market high on volatility but low on meaningful follow through. This is the type of frustrating mix that draws many traders into what-looks-like appealing trades that never gain traction after posting an initial signal for entry. Looking to the dollar, we can see the full effect of this market-imposed lethargy. Despite the early morning attempt to post its first bullish close in five trading days, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar ) ended Monday in the red. A look across the majors gives us clear representation of this greenback-centered weakness. Gains from the core EURUSD and GBPUSD pairs were measured but well-established in an underlying (though decelerating trend); the safe haven balanced USDJPY and USDCHF pairs were mostly unchanged but still dollar negative; and the yield-tipped NZDUSD was pushing new record highs into the beginning of Tuesday’s session.

Much of the currency’s weakness for the opening session can be chalked up to the carryover of selling momentum from the previous week. When there are is a lull in liquidity; the ability to generate a new trend is exceptionally handicapped – especially when the prevailing winds are generally backing a larger selling effort. Essentially, we should look at Monday as a write-off. Assumptions of trend, breakouts and fundamental shifts should be overlooked as they don’t reflect the conviction of the broader markets. If that is the case, we can approach Tuesday’s session as the opening trading day for the dollar. If that is the case, we can draw forward the prominent fundamental considerations that would will determine the benchmark’s bearing through the rest of the week. Risk appetite trends are still but follow through decelerated between the Asian and European sessions Monday; and it is likely to carry this breaking effort into today’s session.

Risk trends are a considerable burden for the dollar when they are positive; but they have offered limited support when negative. This speaks to an underlying truth of the greenback: that the currency is not a pure safe haven but rather a source of liquidity when funding markets freeze up. That being the case, we note that with the passage of Greece’s fifth round of financial support from the European Union, we have temporarily alleviated the threat of a global crisis. In turn, the credit markets have improved and the greenback’s primary appeal has diminished. The European-based sovereign debt issue is still the most immediate threat; but it will be supplanted through the immediate future the approach of the ECB rate decision. This will take a lot of wind out of any offensive that the dollar tries to mount on risk trend from now until Thursday.

Related : Discuss the Dollar in the DailyFX Forum , Today’s Video : ECB Decision versus Greek Financial Crisis for EURUSD Traders’ Attentions

Euro: Positive Turn in Greece Funding Curbed by Another S&P Warning

Another projected outcome was confirmed for euro traders over the weekend; and the support it is offering the currency is visibly wearing thin. After Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou won the confidence vote, it was heavily expected that the country would pass through its additional 78 billion euro austerity measures and secure the fifth tranche of its first bailout package. Indeed, EU Finance Ministers voted this past weekend to release the additional 12 billion in aid (provided the IMF distributes its own portion – which it is expected to approve this Friday). However, from here, the outlook grows a little blurry. Next Monday, the topic of a supplementary bailout package will come up again. In the meantime, Standard & Poor’s threatens to disrupt the quick-fix regime by repeating it would still see a private Greek debt rollover as a default.

Australian Dollar Misses Risk Run, Moving on to RBA Decision

Despite a buoyant start to the week for investor sentiment, the Australian dollar would close Monday out with its first bearish print in five trading days. Considering this weakness was particularly prevalent on AUDNZD, it was clear that the first sub-3.0 percent reading on the TD inflation reading in 11 months along with weak retail sales and approvals weighed the currency specifically. This sets up a dangerous RBA letdown .

British Pound Marks a Slow Start to an Event-Heavy Week

This week is heavy for UK-based scheduled event risk ; but Monday started us out with something of a mix. The economy’s housing sector took another step back with a weaker-than-expected construction sector reading and ongoing 5.8 billion sterling deficit on housing equity withdrawal. Both indicators are indicative of an important sector that will add additional weight to austerity measures and future stimulus/ratings issues.

Swiss Franc Tumbling Quickly as Specific Safe Haven Appeal Fades

The franc is quickly retreating against most of its most liquid counterparts – but is this reason enough to call a top? To determine whether the Swiss currency is indeed retreating from its record or near-record highs requires a fundamental position change. The unit is now finding much of its selling pressure through a reversal in safe haven flows from central Europe to the banking economy; but that in itself is not yet a stable driver.

Japanese Yen Fortified by BoJ’s Positive Outlook, Eased Political Pressure

Economic indicators have limited impact on the yen; and even major swings in growth potential seem to leave the currency little fazed. The real concern is changes to its place as a funding currency. Monday morning, the BoJ upgraded its growth outlook slightly while Finance Minister Noda suggested the government was backing off some of the pressure for further stimulus. These developments modestly diminish that role.

Gold Recovery Lacking for Momentum Until Fiat Demand Weighed

If were just a move posted against the dollar, then we could ascribe gold’s advance Monday to thin markets and a speculative effort to curb bearish speculation through the end of last week. However, the metal posted gains across the board. Fundamentally, confidence in fiat currency has not truly gained much traction. More interesting: net speculative futures positioning dropped last week the most since September 2008.

For Real Time Forex News, visit: http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news/

**For a full list of upcoming event risk and past releases, go to http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar

ECONOMIC DATA

N ext 24 Hours

GMT Currency Release Survey Previous Comments
1:30 AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (MAY) 1900M 1597M Exports to NZ expected to increase
1:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (MAY) -0.6% -1.4% Slower fall brings better outlook for market
2:30 CNY China HSBC Services PMI (JUN) 54.3 Survey expected to follow official lower
4:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision 4.75% 4.75% Commentary will be the most important
7:45 EUR Italian PMI Services (JUN F) 49.6 50.1 Although Italian services industries expected to start shrinking, overall composite numbers expected stagnant
7:50 EUR French PMI Services (JUN F) 56.7 56.7
7:55 EUR German PMI Services (JUN F) 58.3 58.3
8:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Composite (JUN F) 53.6 53.6
8:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Services (JUN F) 54.2 54.2
8:30 GBP PMI Services (JUN) 53.5 53.8 Government cuts, weakness hurting sector
8:30 GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (JUN) -$103M Sharply fallen as bank buys pounds
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY) -1.0% 0.9% Decline in retail sales may not stop this week’s rate decision, but may dull any further hawkishness
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY)(MAY) -0.6% 1.1%
14:00 USD Factory Orders (MAY) 1.0% -1.2% Recovery may lead manufacturing sector
23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (JUN) 2.3% Retail sales steadily climbing

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE – 18 :00 GMT

Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist 2 1.5160 1.6600 89.00 0.9345 1.0275 1.1800 0.8400 122.00 146.05
Resist 1 1.5000 1.6300 86.00 0.8900 1.0000 1.1000 0.8300 118.00 140.00
Spot 1.4543 1.6095 80.76 0.8478 0.9606 1.0732 0.8292 117.45 129.99
Support 1 1.4000 1.5935 80.00 0.8300 0.9500 1.0400 0.7745 113.80 125.00
Support 2 1.3700 1.5750 75.00 0.8250 0.9055 1.0200 0.6850 105.50 119.00

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE – EMERGING MARKETS 18 :00 GMT SCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT

Currency USD/MXN USD/TRY USD/ZAR USD/HKD USD/SGD Currency USD/SEK USD/DKK USD/NOK
Resist 2 13.8500 1.6575 7.4025 7.8165 1.3650 Resist 2 7.5800 5.6625 6.1150
Resist 1 12.5000 1.6300 7.3500 7.8075 1.3250 Resist 1 6.5175 5.3100 5.7075
Spot 11.5835 1.6160 6.7239 7.7807 1.2252 Spot 6.2607 5.1288 5.3407
Support 1 11.5200 1.5040 6.5575 7.7490 1.2145 Support 1 6.0800 5.1050 5.3040
Support 2 11.4400 1.4725 6.4295 7.7450 1.2000 Support 2 5.8085 4.9115 4.9410

INTRA-DAY PIVOT POINTS 18:00 GMT

Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist 2 1.4621 1.6188 81.19 0.8521 0.9639 1.0821 0.8333 118.12 130.44
Resist 1 1.4582 1.6142 80.97 0.8500 0.9623 1.0776 0.8313 117.78 130.21
Pivot 1.4539 1.6094 80.76 0.8481 0.9601 1.0745 0.8290 117.41 129.94
Support 1 1.4500 1.6048 80.54 0.8460 0.9585 1.0700 0.8270 117.07 129.72
Support 2 1.4457 1.6000 80.33 0.8441 0.9563 1.0669 0.8247 116.70 129.45

INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

\ Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist. 3 1.4724 1.6251 81.56 0.8574 0.9693 1.0868 0.8401 119.01 131.47
Resist. 2 1.4679 1.6212 81.36 0.8550 0.9672 1.0834 0.8374 118.62 131.10
Resist. 1 1.4634 1.6173 81.16 0.8526 0.9650 1.0800 0.8346 118.23 130.73
Spot 1.4543 1.6095 80.76 0.8478 0.9606 1.0732 0.8292 117.45 129.99
Support 1 1.4452 1.6017 80.36 0.8430 0.9562 1.0664 0.8238 116.67 129.24
Support 2 1.4407 1.5978 80.16 0.8406 0.9540 1.0630 0.8210 116.28 128.87
Support 3 1.4362 1.5939 79.96 0.8382 0.9519 1.0596 0.8183 115.89 128.50

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Written by: John Kicklighter , Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive John’s reports via email or to submit Questions or Comments about an article; email jkicklighter@dailyfx.com

The information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but of which we have not independently verified. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these materials. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages, including without limitation losses, lost revenues, or lost profits that may result from these materials. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
05 July 2011 00:30 GMT


Guest Commentary: Gold Prices Outlook 07.01.2011


Gold & Silver – Daily Outlook 1 July

Gold and silver finished June with moderate changes, but already started off July with falls. As we are entering the long weekend, what will gold and silver prices do today? The European unemployment report will be published today along with the US durable good report.

Let’s examine the news of the day related to the precious metals market for today July 1 st :

Gold and Silver P rices – June/July

Gold price shifted direction again and closed the month of June with moderate falls on Thursday, June 30 th as it declined by 0.90% to $1,496.

Silver on the other hand inclined on Thursday by 0.18% to $34.83.These changes are very modest so they continue to demonstrate a slow paced movement by bullion metals.

During June, gold decreased by 2.6%, and silver declined by 9.1%.

The chart below shows the normalized gold and silver (May 31 st 2011=100).

It shows how silver tumbled down in three steps: at the beginning, middle and near end of June. Actually, during the last few days of June, silver bounced back a bit. Gold, on the other hand, was much more stable and had its sharpest fall during the penultimate week of June.

Guest_Commentary_Gold_Daily_Outlook_07.01.2011_body_Gold_prices_forecast__silver_price_outlook_2011_JULY_1.png, Guest Commentary: Gold Prices Outlook 07.01.2011

As of Thursday, June 30 th the ratio between gold and silver continued to remain unchanged as it reached 42.97; during June this ratio inclined by 7.1%, which means that during June gold, has outperformed silver.

Guest_Commentary_Gold_Daily_Outlook_07.01.2011_body_Gold_prices_forecast__silver_price_outlook_ratio_2011_JULY_1.png, Guest Commentary: Gold Prices Outlook 07.01.2011

US Dollar Gold and S ilve r– July Update

The US dollar continues to depreciate against the Euro, following the Greek voting during the week. If this will continue today, this might affect gold and silver to incline. Nonetheless, since the Euros to US dollar is traded down very moderately, its effect on gold and silver prices might be little.

US Durable Goods R eport

Today, the U.S. durable good report will be published regarding May. This report indirectly shows the changes in U.S. demand for goods including major commodities such as crude oil. In April 2011, there was decrease in manufactured durable goods by $7.1 billion or 3.6% to $189.9 billion; Non-defense new orders for capital goods decreased by $5.3 billion or 7.3% to $67.6 billion.

This report was suggested to have an effect on the yields of US treasury bonds according to Balduzzi, Elton, and Green (2001); if this will be the case, it might also have an indirect effect on gold and silver, if the results in this report will be a surprise.

European Unemployment R eport

This report will show the changes of unemployment rate in Euro area during May 2011. For the month of April, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.9%, i.e. 15.529 million people were unemployed in the Euro Area. This figure is lower than the rate of April 2010, which stood then on 10.2%. In the EU27, 22.547 million people were unemployed during April 2011. If the report will show again no improvement this will likely to have little effect on Euro/USD and consequently won’t affect much gold and silver.

Gold and S ilver Outlook:

Gold and silver ended June with light changes and July might bring new changes; one of the key factors will remain the USD effect on bullion metals prices’; the upcoming US durable report might have some small effect on gold and silver along with the Euro unemployment report via the changes in the Euro/USD. But as we are entering the long weekend it’s likely that there will continue to be little changes in gold and silver today.

I still speculate that in the mid term gold will remain near the $1,500 mark and silver will level out at $33-35 mark.

Here is a reminder of the top events and reports that are planed for today and tomorrow (all times GMT):

Today

10.00 – Euro Area unemployment rate

13:30 – US Department of Commerce – Report on Durable Goods

For further reading: Gold and silver prices outlook for June 2011

By: Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst for Trading NRG

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
01 July 2011 13:46 GMT


Market Review Eropa


Market Review Eropa :

Euro menguat namun sempat memangkas beberapa keuntungan setelah lembaga pemeringkat Fitch Ratings menegaskan kembali bahwa pertukaran utang Yunani atau rollover sukarela merupakan bentuk lain dari default, memicu ketegangan para pelaku pasar atas prospek fiskal negara yang terjebak utang tersebut. Pasar saham Eropa naik karena para investor mengambil harapan bahwa pemerintah Yunani bisa mendapatkan mosi kepercayaan dari parlemen, sehingga membuka jalan bagi bantuan dana lebih lanjut dari Uni Eropa & IMF.

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Dow, S&P Akhiri Penurunan Beruntun


Sabtu, 18 Juni 2011 04:32 WIB
TODAY’S ANALYSIS STOCK INDEX

Dow dan S&P ditutup naik ditengah sesi perdagangan yang sepi di hari Jumat, mengakhiri penurunan selama 6 pekan berturut-turut, terdorong oleh berita semakin dekatnya bailout untuk Yunani. Namun penurunan pada sektor teknologi menekan Nasdaq turun. “Menurutku penurunan sebesar 7% belum menjadi penentuan, ini adalah waktu yang sulit untuk melakukan trading,” ucap Randy Frederick direktur Trading dan Derivatives pada Charles Schwab. ““Di kuartal ketiga dan keempat, akan ada rebounf,” ucapnya. “Ketika QE2 berakhir, butuh beberapa minggu bagi investor untuk kembali optimis pada pasar dan bagis pasar untuk berbalik naik. Jika pasar dapat mempertahankan level saat ini, itu akan memberikan optimisme untuk berdiri sendiri.”

Merkel dan Sarkozy mengatakan mereka ebrsatu mendukung paket bantuan baru untuk Yunani yang akan mengikutsertakan sektor swasta dalam basis yang disebut “Vienna Initiative.” Berita data setelah Perdana Menteri Yunani menunjuk Evangelos Venizelos sebagai Menteri Keuangan menggantikan George Papaconstantinou. Sementara itu, Moody’s mengatakan sedang mengawasi Italia atas kemungkinan downgrade peringkat hutang, mengingat lemahnya struktural dan kemungkinan naiknya suku bunga.
***EnglishVersion***

Dow, S & P End losing streak

Saturday, June 18, 2011 4:32 pm

TODAY’S STOCK INDEX ANALYSIS
Dow and S & P closed up amid a quiet trading session on Friday, ending a decline for 6 weeks in a row, driven by news of the approach of a bailout for Greece. But the decline in the Nasdaq hit the tech sector down. “I think a decrease of 7% has not been a determination, this was a difficult time to make trades,” said Randy Frederick director of Trading and Derivatives at Charles Schwab. “” In the third and fourth quarters, there will be rebounf, “he said.” When the QE2 ends , it took several weeks for investors to re-optimistic on the market and the market to rebound Bagis. If the market can sustain current levels, it will give optimism to stand alone. ”
Merkel and Sarkozy said they ebrsatu supports new aid package for Greece that will engage the private sector in the base of the so-called “Vienna Initiative.” News of data after the Greek Prime Minister Evangelos Venizelos appointed as Minister of Finance to replace George Papaconstantinou. Meanwhile, Moody’s said it was watching the Italian for possible downgrade the debt ratings, given the structural weakness and the possibility of rising interest rates.


Kompromi Masalah Yunani Selamatkan Aussie


Sabtu, 18 Juni 2011 02:08 WIB
TODAY’S ANALYSIS FOREX

Dollar Australia menghentikan penurunan 2 hari berturut-turut pada hari Jumat setelah Kanselir Jerman Angela Merkel sepakat untuk berkompromi dan bekerja sama dengan European Central Bank dalam mengupayakan paket bailout baru untuk Yunani, yang memulihkan permintaan untuk aset beresiko.

Aussie juga berhasil mencatat kenaikan mingguan terbesar dalam satu bulan terhadap mata uang AS pasca produktivitas industri China dilaporkan meningkat.
“Jerman telah melunak dan mereka tidak akan secara resmi meminta kontribusi pihak swasta untuk Yunani, sehingga kita dapat melihat sentimen terhadap resiko mulai membaik,” kata Charles St-Arnaud, abalis forex pada Nomura Holdings Inc. di New York. “Apresiasi Dollar Australia minggu ini lebih disebabkan oleh faktor pertumbuhan di China yang nampaknya tidak melambat secepat yang telah diperkirakan.”
Produktivitas sektor industri China meningkat sebesar 13,3% pada bulan lalu, yang melampaui perkiraan para ekonom, disertai penjualan ritel yang naik 16,9%, menurut laporan biro statistik. Indeks harga konsumen juga mencatat kenaikan 5,5% persen, yang sesuai ekspektasi pasar.
Sementara perbankan telah diperintahkan untuk menyisihkan lebih banyak uang sebagai cadangan.
Namun penguatan mata uang negara Pasifik Selatan yang ber-yield lebih tinggi ini nampaknya masih akan terbatas seiring data AS yang lebih lemah dari perkiraan mendorong spekulasi bahwa pemulihan pada ekonomi terbesar di dunia itu tengah goyah.
Saat ini AUD/USD diperdagangkan pada kisaran $1.0615 atau sekitar 0,5% lebih tinggi dibandingkan harga pembukaan hari Jumat.
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Saturday, June 18, 2011 2:08 pm
TODAY’S FOREX ANALYSIS

The Australian dollar stopped down 2 days in a row on Friday after German Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed to compromise and cooperate with the European Central Bank in seeking a new bailout package for Greece, which restore the demand for risky assets.
Aussie also has recorded the biggest weekly gain in a month against the U.S. currency after China was reported to increase industrial productivity.

“Germany has softened and they would not formally ask for a private party for Greece, so we can see the sentiment against the risk of getting better,” said Charles St-Arnaud, abalis forex at Nomura Holdings Inc. in New York. “The appreciation of the Australian dollar this week was driven more by growth factors in China that do not seem to slow down as quickly as anticipated.”

Productivity of China’s industrial sector increased by 13.3% in the last month, which exceeded expectations of economists, with retail sales rising 16.9%, according to the statistics bureau report. The consumer price index also recorded an increase of 5.5% percent, which according to market expectations.

While banks have been instructed to set aside more money as reserves.
However, strengthening the currency of South Pacific countries that had higher yield this still seems to be limited as U.S. data weaker than expected prompted speculation that the recovery of the world’s largest economy was being shaken.

Currently AUD / USD traded at $ 1.0615, or about 0.5% higher than the opening price on Friday.


Emas Menguat Ditopang Permintaan


 

Jumat, 17 Juni 2011 21:25 WIB

TODAY’S ANALYSIS COMMODITY

Emas naik lebih lanjut dekati titik tertinggi bulanan ditopang kuatnya permintaan fisik meskipun trend pelemahan global masih menghantui. Dilaporkan pembelian emas fisik kembali meningkat ditengah musim pernikahan di Asia, terutama India dan China. Peritel dan pengusaha perhiasan membeli Emas untuk memenuhi permintaan musiman yang akan tinggi sehingga mereduksi faktor lemahnya pemulihan ekonomi global. Faktor positif lain penopang emas adalah kekhawatiran utang Yunani yang telah didiskon pasar. Anggota Uni Eropa Urusan Moneter dan Ekonomi Olli Rehn mengatakan bahwa review mengenai Yunani dengan IMF akan dirilis pada Senin depan, dan pada hari itu juga Eurogroup diharapkan mampu mengambil keputusan untuk menggelontorkan pinjaman ke Yunani pada awal Juli. Meski komentar tersebut cukup melegakan pasar namun rencana bailout baru masih belum difinalisasi sehingga masih banyak ketidakpastian. Berdasarkan studi teknikal, bias intraday masih Bullish selama harga bergerak didalam bullish channel pada grafik H4. Bagaimanapun masih dibutuhkan penembusan konsisten diatas area 1541 untuk memicu momentum bullish lebih lanjut menguji level resisten kunci 1550. Di sisi bawahnya, hanya level support terdekat ada di area 1525 – 1530. Anjlok dibawah area tersebut dapat membawa harga ke zona netral karena arahnya menjadi tidak jelas.

 

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Gold Gains Sustained Demand
Friday, June 17, 2011 21:25 AM

TODAY’S COMMODITY ANALYSIS

Gold rose further to approach the highest point of the monthly underpinned strong physical demand despite the weakening global trend is still haunting. Reported purchase of physical gold back up amid wedding season in Asia, especially India and China.

Retailers and employers to purchase gold jewelry to meet seasonal demand will be high so that the reduction factor of the weak global economic recovery.

Another positive factor supporting gold is the concern that Greece‘s debt market has been discounted. Members of the European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn said that the review of Greece with the IMF will be released next Monday, and on that day Eurogroup also expected to take decisions to lending poured into Greece in early July. Although the comment was quite a relief to the market but the new bailout plan is still not finalized, so there are still many uncertainties.

Based on the study of technical, intraday bias remains bullish as long as the price moves in the bullish channel on H4 charts. However still required penetration is consistent over the area in 1541 to trigger further bullish momentum to test key resistance level of 1550.

On the bottom side, only the closest support level is in the area from 1525 to 1530. Fell below that area could bring the price into the neutral zone because its direction is unclear.


News Update Stock Index


 

Pengetatan Cina Grogoti Performa Asia

 

Berlanjutnya pengetatan Cina berhasil kurangi reli bursa saham Asia meski data AS sinyalkan berlanjutnya pemulihan ekonomi. Indeks saham Hong Kong dan Cina melemah seiring terpukulnya sektor perbankan setelah Beijing naikan giro wajib minimum keenam kalinya untuk tahun 2011. Hang Seng turun 0,7%, terjebak di antara Moving Average 250 dan leveln rendah 2011 seiring investor terus alokasikan dana ke sektor defensif seperti utilitas. Nikkei menguat 0,3%, dibantu oleh sentimen positif setelah data tunjukan penjualan ritel AS tidak
turun seburuk perkiraan analis. Meski demikian, volume perdagangan tetap rendah yang sinyalkan masih belum yakin-nya investor atas prospek ekonomi
global. Honda Motor melejit 2%, perpanjang rebound setelah sentuh level rendah dua bulan pada perdagangan Selasa. Meski Honda prediksi laba operasional tahunan akan turun 65%, namun investor menganggap prospek perusahaan terlalu konservatif dan pasar telah antisipasi berita buruk tersebut. Hino Motors melonjak 4,4% setelah produsen truk ini laporkan laba perusahaan akan mencapai ¥35 miliar akibat pulihnya permintaan truk dan bis di domestik
serta meningkatnya permintaan di negara-negara berkembang.

 

Wall Street Turun Tajam, Dow Anjlok 1.5%

 

Saham AS turun tajam pada hari Rabu seiring dollar yang melonjak akibat kecemasan memburuknya situasi hutang di Yunani dan setelah sejumlah data
ekonomi yang buruk. “Saham nampaknya akan turun lebih dalam hingga akhir tahun,” menurut David Levy, direktur dan kepala Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, menambahkan bahwa saham masih belum menilai “dampak nyata” dari situasi hutang di Eropa atau perlambatan yang berkelanjutan. Saham anjlok ditengah meningkatnya konflik pada situasi hutang di Yunani, setelah pejabat zona Eropa gagal untuk mencapai kesepakatan mengenai bantuan Yunani. Ribuan pengunjuk rasa berkumpul di Athena untuk memprotes kebijakan pengetatan dari pemerintah guna menghindari kebangkrutan. Menteri Keuangan zona Eropa akan bertemu kembali pekan depan, mencoba mencapai kesepakatan. Sementara itu Moody’s memperingatkan kemungkinan mendowngrade 2 bank Portugal ditengah kecemasan pendanaan. Sebelumnya, Moody’s juga memperingatkan 3 bank terbesar di Perancis, mengingat keterkaitannya dengan krisis hutang di Yunani. Turut menambah tekanan turun hari ini adalah laporan aktivitas sektor manufaktur di New York yang diluar dugaan berkontraksi di bulan Juni dan juga sentimen developer rumah yang turun tajam ke level terendah sejak September 2010.

 

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China tightening biting Asian Performance

The continued tightening China managed to cut Asian stock markets rally despite U.S. data sinyalkan continuing economic recovery. Hong Kong stock index and the Chinese banking sector is weaker as blow after Beijing Raise the minimum reserve requirement for the sixth time in 2011. The Hang Seng fell 0.7%, caught between the moving average 250 and lower leveln 2011 as investors continue to allocate funds to defensive sectors like utilities. Nikkei up 0.3%, helped by positive sentiment after U.S. retail sales data show does not go down as bad as analysts expected. However, trading volumes remain low sinyalkan still not convinced its investors over the global economic outlook. Honda Motor soared 2%, extend rebound after two months touch a low level in trading Tuesday. Although Honda’s annual operating profit forecast to fall 65%, but investors consider the company’s prospects are too conservative and the market had anticipated the bad news. Hino Motors jumped 4.4% after this truck manufacturers report profits will reach ¥ 35 billion due to recovery in demand for trucks and buses in the domestic as well as rising demand in developing countries.

Wall Street Down Sharply, Dow’s sales drop 1.5%

U.S. stocks fell sharply on Wednesday as the dollar due to soaring anxiety worsening debt situation in Greece and after a number of bad economic data. “Stocks will likely fall even further until the end of the year,” according to David Levy, director and head of the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, adding that the stock is still not considered “real impact” of the debt situation in Europe or the ongoing slowdown. Shares plunged amid increasing tensions on the debt situation in Greece, after the European zone officials failed to reach agreement on aid Greece. Thousands of protesters gathered in Athens to protest the tightening of government policy in order to avoid bankruptcy. Euro-zone finance ministers will meet again next week, trying to reach an agreement. Meanwhile, Moody’s warned of a possible downgrade amid concerns Portugal 2 bank funding. Previously, Moody’s also warned the three largest banks in France, given its association with the debt crisis in Greece. Also adding downward pressure today is a report of activity in New York manufacturing sector which unexpected contraction in June and also houses the developer sentiment fell sharply to its lowest level since September 2010.