Komoditi Emas merosot sebesar 1,3% ke level $1778.75/roy ounce pada perdagangan Kamis dini hari setelah langkah The Fed mengecewakan pelaku pasar yang mengharapkan bank sentral tersebut akan menerapkan paket stimulus keuangan yang lebih kuat lagi. Penurunan Emas juga dipicu oleh menguatnya dollar AS terhadap mata uang utama lain. Pada sidang FOMC Kamis dini hari The Fed mempertahankan suku bunga dilevel terendahnya sebesar 0,25% dan menyatakan pertumbuhan ekonomi masih “sangat lambat”, The Fed menempuh langkah yang sebelumnya pernah dilakukan pada 1961 lalu yang disebut dengan pembelian obgliasi “operation twist”, dimana bank sentral akan menjual obligasi bertenor lebih pendek untuk membeli obligasi dengan tenor panjang senilai $400 M pada Juni 2012 mendatang.
Sterling melemah terhadap US dolar pada perdagangan di hari Rabu Sterling merosot hingga ke level terendah 8 bulan terahadap US Dolar dan menyentuh level terendah 2.5 tahun terhadap Yen kemarin, setelah BoE mengindikasikan meningkatnya peluang bagi bank sentral untuk segera meluncurkan Quantitative Easing lanjutan. Meskipun Adam Posen masih tetap menjadi satu – satunya anggota MPC yang menyuarakan penambahan 50 M Poundsterling dalam program pembelian aset bank sentral. Suramnya data ekonomi dan hasil survei dalam beberapa minggu terkahir telah memicu kekhawatiran terhadap prospek ekonomi Inggris ditengah berlangsungnya langkah – langkah penghematan yang ekstrim, disamping itu perekonomian Inggris juga dinilai sangat rentan terkena dampak krisis hutang kawasan zona Eropa.
Pada perdagangan di hari Rabu Indeks Berjangka Nikkei menguat tipis diperkuat oleh short covering menyusul kenaikan saham – saham Asia dan menjelang rilis keputusan kebijakan The Fed, tetapi volume perdagangan yang rendah mengindikasikan kurangnya minat kuat investor, banyak yang masih sangat khawatir terhadap bagaimana Eropa dapat mempertahankan diri dari krisis hutang yang semakin berat. Bukannya pembelian Obligasi tahap ke III atau QE III yang di duga banyak analis mungkin yang dipilih The Fed untuk Operation Twist, dimana The Fed akan menggantikan Obligasi jangka pendek dengan Obligasi jangka panjang atau secara aktif menjual aset jangka pendek untuk Obligasi jangka panjang bertujuan untuk semakin menurunkan suku bunga jangka panjang.
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- Here’s Why Mortgage Refinance Activity Will Rise — But Probably Won’t Boom (businessinsider.com)
- The Fed Disappointed… The Great Collapse is Here (zerohedge.com)
- Ratings Agencies Are Only A Year And A Half Late Once It Comes To The Italian Banks! (zerohedge.com)
- Economists React: Fed Is ‘Doing What It Can’ (blogs.wsj.com)
- Dollar Index Reaches 7-Month High as Fed Acts to Revive Economy (businessweek.com)
- Why Goldman Is Surprised By The Market’s Reaction To The Twist, And What’s Next For The Fed? (zerohedge.com)
- Sterling, Euro and US Dollar – The Pound lost some momentum against the Euro yesterday (torfx.com)
- BofA, Wells Fargo Cut by Moody’s on Waning U.S. Support (businessweek.com)
- Debt crisis: as it happened – September 21, 2011 (telegraph.co.uk)
By Christopher Vecchio, Junior Currency Analyst
With the last full week of July ahead, there is significantly more event risk on the docket than the third week in July. Now, as the markets have begun to digest the results of the new bailout of Greece, price action will largely be dictated by key events on the docket, including American and British growth figures, Australian and German consumer price indexes, and a rate decision from the most southern antipodean nation. Still, the markets will continue to listen to jabbering between Democrats and Republicans, as the debt ceiling debacle has still yet to find resolution ahead of the ‘hard’ August 2 deadline.
• United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q A): July 26 – 08:30 GMT
The British economy has experienced growth of at least 1.5 percentin each of the past four quarters, on a year-over-year basis, going back to the second quarter of 2010. Surveys indicate that the GDP growth figure released on July 26 will come in at 0.8 percent, well below last quarter’s 1.6 percent pace, on a yearly-basis. Growth forecasts have been revised downwards as the economy has failed to pick up momentum in recent weeks and months, as most recently noted by the Bank of England minutes, released this past week.
Contributing to the downturn has been the persistent Euro-zone debt crisis, which has curtailed investment overseas and demand for British goods. Inflation continues to be stubbornly high at 4.5 percent, more than double the inflation target rate as set by the Bank of England. Although a decline in output should deter further inflation, the priority remains to accelerate economic growth, which is why the central bank has held rates at 0.50 percent for twenty-nice consecutive months.
• United States Durable Goods Orders (JUN): July 27 – 12:30 GMT
U.S. Durable Goods Orders are expected to have risen only 0.3 percent after increasing a promising 2.1 percent in May, already revised up from the 1.9 percent initial reading. The increase is still welcomed following a 2.7 percent drop in orders in April. The recent upswing in the closely watched economic indicator is rooted mainly in easing disruptions to factory production in the United States, as supply chain disruptions as a result of the aftermath of the Japanese natural disasters and ensuing earthquake weakened demand. In the fragile U.S. economy, manufacturing has been one of the key areas of strength since the recession abated.
A weaker domestic currency has boosted exports and encouraged manufacturers to continue to make long-term investments. The durable goods orders report is a leading indicator of economic health, and will thus be closely watched to gauge manufacturers’ sentiment and investment activity as the debt ceiling debate looms in the U.S.
•Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision (JUL 28): July 27 – 21:00 GMT
At its last meeting on June 8, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to maintain its key benchmark interest rate at 2.50 percent, on the outlook that the economy is steadily improving following the earthquakes over the past few months. The central bank has determined that the most southern antipodean nation is still in need of stimulus to promote further strengthening. It is widely expected that the key rate will be kept at 2.50 percent at the next monetary policy meeting on July 28, with the Credit Suisse Overnight Index Swaps showing a mere 6.0 percent chance of a 25.0-basis point rate hike. Still, despite such weak expectations, the number of basis points priced into the Kiwi over the next 12-months, 94.0, has boosted the New Zealand Dollar since mid-March.
In spite of such a strong domestic currency, recent data releases indicate that the economy is undergoing robust growth and inflation has risen faster than expected. GDP growth figures released on July 13 came in at 1.4 percent, blowing past a forecast of 0.5 percent growth, while recent inflationary data showed inflation increasing to 5.3 percent, topping expectations of 5.1 percent, on a year-over-year basis. These two important economic indicators will play a major role in determining future the central bank’s cash rate decisions. If the recent growth continues, there is a high probability that there will be a rate hike in September to contain inflationary pressures.
• German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL P): July 28 – 04:00 GMT
The German consumer price index has remained steady for the last six months and no change is expected in this figure at the next release next Thursday. According to a Bloomberg News survey, the initial forecast calls for a print of 2.3 percent on a year-over-year basis, matching the number of the previous month. This number is slightly higher than the European Central Bank’s target inflation of “below but close to 2 percent,” but the recent rate hikes enacted by the central bank are expected to help suppress further jumps in inflationary pressures: changes in interest rates take anywhere from two- to six-months to be felt by an economy.
Higher energy prices have been the primary driver keeping inflation above the 2.0 percent mark but “lower food and seasonal food prices can be in part held responsible for the benign pan-German reading.” Since Germany is the Euro-zone’s strongest and largest economy, this reading is closely watched by the European Central Bank as a determinant of their monetary policy decisions.
• United States Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (2Q A): July 29 – 12:30 GMT
The U.S. economy is expected to have experienced very slow economic growth in the second quarter of 2011. The GDP data that will be released on July 29 is an indication that output is increasing at a decreasing rate, albeit at a decreasing rate. Forecasts call for a 1.7 percent growth in output versus a 1.9 percent growth experienced in the first quarter, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Two significant factors contributing to the slow recovery include high food and energy prices and supply chain disruptions following the Japan earthquake.
The ongoing debt ceiling debate has reduced consumer confidence as investors concerns grow about the possibility of a U.S. default. The lowered confidence levels have translated into reduced spending impacting the output produced by the world’s largest economy. At the most recent Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, the FOMC revised GDP and unemployment forecasts downwards from their April projections. The change in growth forecasts for 2011 and 2012 have been revised from 3.3 percent to 2.9 percent and from 4.2 percent to 3.7 percent, respectively.
Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst
- Dollar Ignores Budget Headway, Earnings and Suffers for Risk Rally (managemenresiko.wordpress.com)
- Bank of England minutes suggest rate hike not near (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
- Eurozone inflation to decelerate? (beta.tradingfloor.com)
- BOE Voted 7-2 as Most See Less Need for Near-Term Rate Rise (businessweek.com)
- Inflation spike looms closer but no interest rate rise, Bank of England minutes show (telegraph.co.uk)
6 Month Euro Forecast: Looking for the EURUSD at 1.25
By David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist
The Euro has done well through the first half of 2011, rallying to fresh multi-year highs against the US Dollar and strengthening against almost all G10 counterparts. There remain clear fundamental risks for the single currency in the second half of 2011, and we look for the Euro to fall. The major concern is whether several at-risk countries can remain stable despite clear debt crises. The European Central Bank’s next actions may prove pivotal—especially as the Euro has strengthened on robust interest rate forecasts and is at risk of losses on any significant downgrades. The number of risks to the Euro arguably outweighs those to the US Dollar, leaving us watching for further EURUSD declines. We look for the EUR/USD to end 2011 below 1.25.
European Sovereign Debt Crisis – Where Did We Start and Where Do We Stand?
The euro zone financial debt crisis continues to threaten EUR stability and remains a key risk through the second half of the year. At the forefront of traders’ minds is Greece—can the southern European state withstand market pressures and remain solvent?
Despite a €110 billion three year bailout agreement with the European Union and International Monetary Fund, Greece has yet to see the light at the end of the tunnel. The difficulty lies in the structure of the bailout deal. When the International Monetary Fund agreed to loans, it required that the Greek government return to the debt markets for its borrowing needs as soon as 2012. At the time, this request seemed reasonable. With backstops from the EU and IMF, international investors would be more likely to buy Greek debt. Yet the continuing sell-off in Greek bonds underline that few are willing to hold existing Greek debt—much less buy any newly-issued debt.
The cost to insure against a Greek debt default has recently hit record-highs as seen through Credit Default Swaps, and current sovereign debt ratings imply a 50 percent chance of a Greek default within the coming five years.
A further bailout seems increasingly necessary and likely, but uncertainty over Greece’s ability to repay debts could likewise spread to other at-risk government treasuries.
Spain and Portugal Outlook Uncertain on Funding Needs
The key risk with periphery debt crises has and will always be contagion—will Greece’s troubles affect other periphery nations and even spill into the core through higher bond yields? In absolute terms, bailouts for Greece, Portugal, and Ireland have cost relatively little. Together, the three economies comprise approximately 5 percent of total euro zone Gross Domestic Product. If EMU titans Spain (8.9 percent of GDP) and Italy (12.8 percent of GDP) fall into trouble, however, European coffers may not be able to cope with the required fiscal aid.
The spread between benchmark Spanish and German government bond yields has recently widened to its largest since the inception of the euro—implying that Spain’s relative debt risk is worsening. And though a 10-year Spanish government bond yield of approximately 5.5 percent is low by historical standards, the widening gulf could further exacerbate government deficits. Much the same can be said for Italy. A key question is whether bond troubles in periphery nations can spread to the core, truly threatening the stability of the single currency zone.
Of course, there have been plenty of reasons that the euro has strengthened despite these readily apparent sovereign debt crises.
European Central Bank – Can They Continue to Hike Rates?
Expectations that the European Central Bank will be among the most aggressive central banks in raising interest rates has driven speculative interest in the euro, pushing the price up in the first half of this year. A key question will be whether the ECB will follow through on lofty forecasts and continue to raise interest rates, further supporting the currency.
Robust interest rate forecasts have driven the euro higher against the US Dollar and Japanese Yen—currencies that hold the dubious honor of the two lowest-yielding among the industrialized world.
Overnight Index Swaps, a tool used by major financial institutions to bet on and hedge against interest rate moves, show that traders expect the ECB could raise rates three times through the second half of 2012 in order to head off inflation in the Euro Zone. This compares to forecasts that the US Federal Reserve will leave interest rates roughly unchanged through the same stretch. The Bank of Japan is similarly forecast to leave monetary policy effectively unchanged and to keep Japanese short-term interest rates near zero.
Yet in markets nothing is guaranteed, and indeed we might argue that the euro has seen about all of the yield-linked support it will enjoy. That is to say, it would likely take a material improvement in ECB forecasts (and subsequent rate hikes) to continue driving EUR gains.
Can the European Central Bank continue to set hawkish monetary policy despite clear economic and fiscal struggles in periphery nations? ECB President Jean Claude Trichet has continued to emphasize that the central bank sets policy for the whole of the monetary union and cannot ignore mounting inflationary pressures. Yet with fiscal austerity packages guaranteed across the euro zone, demand-driven inflation could quickly abate and lessen the need for tightened policy.
All else remaining equal, the euro would almost certainly fall on a sharp downgrade in ECB interest rate expectations. Of course, nothing ever remains equal in financial markets and there are a number of mitigating factors that could strongly affect the single currency.
Financial Markets Continue to Drive Currencies
The euro remains a currency closely linked to equities markets, with the EUR/USD tending to rise with stocks, and tending to fall when stocks fall. Further market turmoil could almost certainly derail the recent EUR strength. The correlation between the Euro/US Dollar currency pair and the US Dow Jones Industrial Average has recently been trading near record levels; Dow variation has theoretically explained up to 45 percent of Euro movements. Part of this relationship is the US Dollar’s appeal as the currency of many popular “safe” investments—most notably US Treasury Bonds. On the other side of it, the euro is arguably among the most at-risk assets in financial market upheaval as debt market difficulties could further exacerbate the current European sovereign debt crises.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average limped into the second half of the year, declining for six consecutive trading weeks and posting its worst performance in nearly a decade. It should come as relatively little surprise that especially sharp equities sell-offs forced EURUSD weakness, and indeed a continuation could see the US Dollar further regain ground against its high-flying European counterpart.
Euro in Favorable Long-Term Trend but with Considerable Risks in the Second Half of 2011
The Euro remains well within a decade-long uptrend against the US Dollar, but the medium-term outlook is fraught with risk as doubts remain about euro zone economic and political stability. Of course, the US Dollar is not without its own issues and actual EURUSD price action will depend on a great number of different dynamics.
Whether or not the euro remains in its broader uptrend will greatly depend on developments in sovereign debt crises and market expectations regarding the European Central Bank. It seems that risks generally favor Euro losses, and indeed our forecast remains bearish into the end of 2011.
- ECB Bond-Buying Halt Tested as Italy Plans Auction: Euro Credit (businessweek.com)
- Currencies: Dollar, yen gain ahead of euro-zone meeting (marketwatch.com)
- Currencies: Dollar gains on euro on Greece contagion fears (marketwatch.com)
- Gold and Dollar Pop on Euro Debt Crisis (businessinsider.com)
- China rate hike talk takes the edge off risk in Asia (tradingfloor.com)
- IIF’s Dallara: Euro Zone Has Taken Big Step (online.wsj.com)
- Europe considers Greek default (theglobeandmail.com)
- Euro sovereign risk spreads jump wider ahead of ECB (tradingfloor.com)
Market Review Asia
Dollar New Zealand bertahan dekat puncaknya 30 tahun terhadap dollar AS seiring minat resiko membaik setelah rilis data employment sektor swasta AS. Indeks Nikkei rata-rata meraih puncak 4 bulannya, dipimpin penguatan sektor konstruksi setelah upgrade rating dari Deutsche Securities menjadi “overweight”, sebelumnya “market weight”. Bursa Seoul ditutup nyaris flat mengikuti penguatan 7 sesi berturut-turut walau adanya data jobs dan retail yang positif, yang akhirnya tertekan oleh aksi profit-taking. Hang Seng berakhir menguat terkait kenaikan sektor properti dan keuangan di bursa Shanghai yang membantu mengangkat indeks. IHSG ditutup naik 64,218 poin berkat aksi beli asing terhadap saham-saham bluechip.
- Into Asia! To Bursa for Renault and an Amazing Hotel (globallyimmersed.wordpress.com)
Produksi Industri Cina Legakan Asia
Bursa saham Asia menguat setelah data tunjukan berlanjutnya pertumbuhan produksi industri Cina, bukti negeri tirai bamboo ini dapat pertahankan
performa pertumbuhan ekonomi-nya yang cemeralang. Namun, inflasi naik 5,5%, level tertinggi 34 bulan; ini tentunya berikan alasan bagi bank sentral Cina untuk lanjutkan pengetatan kebijakan moneter. Setelah bursa Cina ditutup, People’s Bank of China umumkan kenaikan Giro Wajib Minimum Perbankan sebesar 50 bps; Hang Seng langsung terpukul setelah berita dirilis dan berakhir melemah 0,1%. Nikkei menguat 1,1%, ditopang aksi beli investor Asia, namun kekhawatiran terhadap perlambatan ekonomi global dapat batasi reli lebih
lanjut. Tokyo Electric Power melejit 25,1% setelah kabinet Jepang setujui skema kompensasi bagi korban krisis nuklir Fukushima. Kospi berhasil ditutup naik 1,4% meski kecemasan atas keadaan ekonomi global membuat investor berhati-hati sehingga batasi penguatan indeks. Saham Woori Finance meningkat 0,4% setelah pemerintah utarakan ketidak-setujuan rencana partisipasi KDB Financial Group dalam lelang aset Woori senilai $6 miliar. Sektor kimia tunjukan
pemulihan setelah terperosok dalam bulan ini dengan LG Chemical dan Hanwha Chemical masing-masing menguat 1.9% dan 6.3%.
Saham Sektor Energi Lejitkan Wall Street
Saham AS terlepas dari level tinggi namun masih ditutup naik tajam pada hari Selasa, dipimpin kenaikan saham sektor energi, menyusul sejumlah data eknomi yang membantu mendorong optimisme pasar. “Rally berkaitan erat dengan faktor teknikal,” menurut Alan Valdes, direktur operasional floor pada DME Securities, mengingat pasar cenderung terkoreksi menjelang berakhirnya masa kontrak option. Bernanke memperingatkan bahwa kegagalam untuk menaikkan
batas hutang beresiko menghilangkan kredibilitas AS, mengatakan AS dapat kehilangan peringkat hutang AAA miliknya dan status dollar sebagai mata uang
reserve dapat rusak. “Bahkan sedikit penundaan pembayaran obligasi maupun bunganya dapat menimbulkan sejumlah gangguan pada pasar keuangan dan sistem pembayaran,” ucap Bernanke. Di awal sesi saham melejit menyusul berita
bank sentral Cina menaikkan rasio persyaratan modal perbankan untuk kesembilan kalinya sejak Oktober lalu pasca data menunjukkan kenaikan inflasi ke level tertinggi dalam hampir selama 3 tahun. Berita itu mendorong kenaikan harga logam, mengangkat naik saham sektor industri dan pertambangan. Analis
mengatakan berita tersebut menandakan perekonomian Cina melambat, sehingga mendorong investor untuk beralih ke aset beresiko. Namun Nouriel Roubini mengatakan Cina sedang menghadapi “kemungkinan besar” untuk sebuah perlambatan yang tajam.
Chinese Industrial Production bronchioles in Asia
Asian stock markets rose after the data show continuing growth in Chinese industrial production, evidence of this country can keep bamboo curtain
economic growth performance is brilliant. However, inflation rose 5.5%, its highest level 34 months; certainly give a reason for China’s central bank to continue tightening monetary policy. After the Chinese stock exchange closed, the People’s Bank of China announced the increase in minimum reserve requirement by 50 bps Banking, Hang Seng hit immediately after the news was released and ended down 0.1%. The Nikkei rose 1.1%, supported by Asian investors bought more, but fears of slowing global economy could limit the rally more information. Tokyo Electric Power soared 25.1% after the Japanese cabinet approves compensation scheme for victims of Fukushima nuclear crisis. Successful Kospi closed up 1.4% despite worries over the global economic situation made investors cautious, so limit the strengthening of the index. Woori Finance shares rose 0.4% after the government’s plan to express disapproval of participation in the auction KDB Financial Group Woori assets worth $ 6 billion. Chemical sector show recovery after a fall in this month by LG Chemical and Hanwha Chemical rose respectively 1.9% and 6.3%.
Energy Sector Stocks Wall Street boost
U.S. stocks despite high levels but still closed up sharply on Tuesday, led by energy sector stocks rise, following a number of Economy data that helped drive the market optimism. “Rally is closely related to technical factors,” said Alan Valdes, director of floor operations at the DME Securities, since markets tend corrected before the expiration of the option contract. Bernanke warned that failure to raise debt limit risk losing the credibility of the United States, said the U.S. could lose its AAA debt rating and the status of the dollar as currency
reserve can be damaged. “Even a modest delay in the payment of bonds or interest thereon may cause some disruption in financial markets and payment system,” Bernanke said. At the beginning of the session shares soared following the news China central bank to raise ratio of bank capital requirements for the ninth time since last October after data showed inflation rising to its highest level in nearly 3 years. The news pushed metal prices, lifting shares rise industrial and mining sectors. Analyst said the news marks the Chinese economy slows down, prompting investors to switch to riskier assets. But Nouriel Roubini said China is facing a “big possibility” for a sharp slowdown.
- GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia stocks hit 3-year high; euro extends gains (reuters.com)
- U.S. China News 2011.06.01 (americachina.wordpress.com)
- Bernanke: Economy slowing but faster growth ahead (sfgate.com)
- Bernanke: Economy slowing but faster growth ahead (seattlepi.com)
- Miners drag on FTSE as China hikes rates, banks slip (reuters.com)
Kenaikan Suku Bunga Inggris Akan Legakan BoE Nantinya
Bank of England seharusnya menaikkan suku bunga saat ini untuk mencegah pengetatan yang lebih agresif di waktu mendatang dan membantah spekulasi bahwa bank sentral telah melepas mandat untuk melawan inflasi, menurut Martin Weale, salah satu pejabat BoE. Weale, yang telah menyerukan kenaikan sebesar 25 basis poin sejak bulan Januari, mengatakan kenaikan suku bunga lebih awal dapat memperburuk perekonomian namun bank sentral akan mendapatkan kelegaan untuk memperlambat atau bahkan membalikkan proses pengetatan nantinya jika dibutuhkan. Kenaikan lebih awal berarti suku bunga tidak harus naik sesuai perkiraan pasar saat ini untuk beberapa tahun kedepan, ucap Weale pada Finance Director‘s Strategy Meeting di London. “Apa yang akan dilakukan adalah mengurangi spekulasi bahwa bank sentral ingkar terhadap mandat inflasinya,” ucap Weale. “Ini akan mengurangi resiko kenaikan berikutnya dan mungkin dapat berarti bahwa dalam waktu 3 tahun kedepan, kebijakan moneter tidak perlu seketat yang ditunjukkan kurva yield,” ucapnya.
Emas Tumbang Bersama Komoditas
Emas anjlok sebesar 1% hari Senin, seiring melemahnya minyak dan komoditas lainnya ditengah kecemasan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan krisis hutang Eropa memicu aksi jual sektor komoditas. Perak juga turun sebanyak 4%, seiring absennya aksi beli safehaven kendati downgrade pada peringkat hutang Yunani. Emas mendapat tekanan dari likuidasi aset beresiko dan akan menghadapi tekanan dari aksi profit-taking, namun sektor fundamental masih mendukung emas,” ucap Sean McGillivray, kepala alokasi aset Great Pacific Wealth Management. Aksi juall teknikal juga turut menekan harga setelah emas menembus ke bawah MA20, level yang menahan selama 3 pekan terakhir. Emas nampaknya sedang menuju level support setelah terpantul dari levl MA20 pada $1,507 per ons.
Minyak Anjlok Pasca Downgrade Yunani
Minyak Brent beranjak ke area negatif dan minyak mentah AS menambah penurunan pada hari Senin setelah pemangkasan peringkat hutang Yunani menambah kecemasan mengenai perkeonomian dan tingkat permintaan minyak. Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services menurunkan peringkat hutang jangka panjang Yunani dengan outlook negatif, membuat busa saham AS tertekan turun dan euro memangkas kenaikan terhadap dollar. “Downgrade Yunani oleh S&P memicu koreksi dan bursa saham juga melemah,” ucap Chris Dillman, analis pada Tradition Energy di Stamford, Connecticut. Kecemasan melambatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi telah menekan minyak mentah AS sebelum berita Yunani dirilis. Tingginya persediaan domestik, terutama di Cushing, Oklahoma, juga turut menekan harga minyak. Katalis segar datang di hari Senin ketika Royal Dutch Shell menyatakan force majeure pada pengiriman minyak mentah Nigerian Bonny Light untuk bulan Juni dan Juli. Shell mengatakan turunnya produksi diakibatkan kebocoran dan kebakaran pada jalur pipa Trans-Niger.
UK Interest Rate Increase Will BoE relief Later
Bank of England should raise interest rates today to prevent a more aggressive tightening in the future, and denied speculation that the central bank has released a mandate to fight inflation, according to Martin Weale, one of the BoE officials. Weale, who has called for an increase of 25 basis points since January, said an early rate hike could worsen the economy but central banks will get relief to slow or even reverse the process of tightening later on if needed. The increase means the interest rates sooner not have to go up according to current market estimates for the next few years, Weale said the Finance Director’s Strategy Meeting in London. “What will be done is to reduce speculation that the central bank’s mandate of breach against inflation,” said Weale. “This will reduce the risk of subsequent increases and may mean that within 3 years, monetary policy does not need as tight as indicated yield curve,” he said.
Gold tumbles Joint Commodities
Gold fell 1% Monday, as weaker oil and other commodities amid worries of economic growth and European debt crisis triggered a sell-commodity sectors. Silver also fell by 4%, in line despite the absence of buying safehaven downgrade the debt ratings of Greece. Gold under pressure from the liquidation of assets at risk and will face pressure from profit-taking action, but the fundamentals still support the gold sector, “said Sean McGillivray, head of asset allocation Great Pacific Wealth Management. Action technical juall also suppress the gold price after penetrating downward MA20 , a level that held for 3 weeks. Gold seemingly heading for the level of support after reflected from levl MA20 at $ 1.507 per ounce.
Oil Down After Downgrade Greece
Brent oil went into the negative area and increase the decline in U.S. crude oil on Monday after cutting debt ratings Greek add perkeonomian and level of anxiety about oil demand. Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services lowered the long-term debt ratings with a negative outlook Greece, foaming depressed U.S. stock cut down and the euro rise against the dollar. “Greece Downgrade by S & P trigger a stock market correction and also weakening,” said Chris Dillman, an analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. Fears of economic slowdown has hit the U.S. crude oil before the Greek news release. High domestic inventories, particularly in Cushing, Oklahoma, also weighed on oil prices. Fresh catalyst came on Monday when Royal Dutch Shell declared force majeure on oil shipments Nigerian Bonny Light crude for June and July. Shell said the decline in production caused by leaks and fires on the Trans-Niger pipeline.
- BOE Weale Makes Case For Hike In Bank Rate Now (forexlive.com)
- Rates must rise even if recovery falters, says Bank of England policymaker Martin Weale (telegraph.co.uk)
- Greek credit rating cut (cbc.ca)
- Daily ETF Roundup: UNG Tumbles On Mild Forecast, XLF Rises On M&A Activity (businessinsider.com)
- Stocks Rebound on M&A as Oil Retreats; Greek, Spain Bonds Slump (businessweek.com)
- What the Market Wants: Big-time Flight to Safety (philstockworld.com)
- Japanese, Australian Stock Futures Drop on Oil, Greek Rating (businessweek.com)
- Summary of commodity markets (news.theage.com.au)
- U.S. Stocks Rise as Mergers Help Offset Worries About Economy (businessweek.com)
- Eurozone debt jitters spread to Wall Street (telegraph.co.uk)
- Global stock markets drop on eurozone debt fears (telegraph.co.uk)
- Goldman Sees Commodity Recovery as Slump Wipes Out $99 Billion (businessweek.com)
- Weakening commodities weigh on equities (telegraph.co.uk)
- U.S. China News 2011.06.11 (americachina.wordpress.com)
- Europe Factors-Shares seen lower on Japan, earnings woes (reuters.com)
- Opening Bell: Stocks rise as U.S. jobless rate falls (business.financialpost.com)
- U.S. China News 2011.05.23 (americachina.wordpress.com)
- Stocks are still ‘vulnerable’ (money.cnn.com)
- U.K. inflation and the limits of austerity (finance.fortune.cnn.com)
- Markets Live transcript 7 Apr 2011 (ftalphaville.ft.com)