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Posts tagged “Foreign exchange market

Analisa Emas


Gold Buddha

Gold Buddha (Photo credit: @Doug88888)

Kenaikan Harga emas tertahan di kisaran Ma 200 grafik 1 jam kemarin di $1267 dan meleha kembali hingga ke area $1239. Harga kini berada di kisaran 1245.  Tekanan turun emas kemungkinan karena dollar yang menguat jelang libur pasar AS, Independence Day, besok dan jelang data tenaga kerja Jumat pekan ini.  Dalam jangka pendek, tekanan turun emas berpeluang membawa emas hingga level 1233 (MA 100 grafik 1 jam). Support selanjutnya di kisaran 1224. Sementara bila harga menembus level 1250 (MA 50 grafik 1 jam), emas berpeluang menyentuh level MA 200 nya di kisaran 1256-62.  Hari ini cukup banyak data ekonomi AS yang akan dirilis seperti data Non Farm Employment Change yang disurvei oleh ADP, data klaim tunjangan pengangguran mingguan, data neraca perdagangan dan data aktivitas sektor non manufaktur yang disurvei ISM.  Fokus perhatian pasar tentunya lebih ke data-data yang berkaitan dengan situasi tenaga kerja AS. Bila data-data ini membaik, dollar bisa kembali menguat dan melemahkan harga emas. Demikian pula sebaliknya.


Market Outlook Today


EMAS

Komoditi Emas bergerak melemah pada perdagangan kemarin, logam mulia ini bergerak dalam koreksi yang wajar setelah sempat mencapai posisi tertinggi dalam lebih dari 7 minggu pada perdagangan akhir minggu lalu. Komoditi Emas melemah menjelang pertemuan para petinggi Uni Eropa yang rencananya akan membahas penanganan krisis utang di kawasan tersebut. Yunani berusaha menolak campur tangan terhadap komisioner Uni Eropa dalam penyusunan anggaran dalam negerinya dengan alasan harga diri, kondisi ini dapat mengakibatkan penundaan atau pembatalan pemberikan bantuan tahap ke 2 bagi Negara ini, Yunani dan kreditor swastanya diharapkan akan segera melengkapi perjanjian pemotongan utang dalam minggu ini.

GBP/USD

Sterling menguat terhadap Euro pada perdagangan kemarin menyusul investor masih menunggu perkembangan dari kesepakatan swap utang Yunani dan menjelang KTT Uni Eropa yang diperkirakan tidak akan banyak membantu mendorong penguatan Euro, Yunani harus mencapai kesepakatan dengan kreditor swasta untuk memperoleh paket bailout ke 2 guna mengindari resiko default. Kondisi yang masih penuh ketidakpastian tersebut telah menekan Euro secara umum dan memicu mata uang tunggal Eropa terkoreksi sebesar 0,5% terhadap Sterling, Sterling berpotensi melemah minggu ini jika data purchasing managers’ surveys periode bulan Januari untuk sektor manufaktur, konstruksi, dan jasa menambah gambaran memburuknya kondisi ekonomi Inggris dan menambah prospek untuk berlanjutnya pelonggaran moneter oleh Bank Sentral Inggris. Pasar memprediksi BoE akan meningkatkan pembelian aset melalui program Quantitative Easing di bulan Februari dan hal ini berpotensi menekan sterling, meskipun komentar dari petinggi BoE David Miles Jumat lalu telah melemahkan prospek tersebut. Miles menegaskan bahwa merupakan pandangan yang terlalu berlebihan yang menganggap bahwa QE pasti akan berlanjut.

HANGSENG

Indeks Berjangka Hangseng bergerak menguat pada perdagangan di hari Selasa pagi ini, pada perdagangan terakhir bulan Januari 2012 ini bursa saham Asia diliputi oleh sentimen menguat, mengabaikan hasil akhir perdagangan di bursa saham Wall Street pada perdagangan kemarin yang cenderung tertekan. Bursa saham Hongkong membukukan kenaikan yang cukup signifikan ditopang oleh pergerakan saham – saham lapis biru yang cukup solid menguat diantaranya adalah Hangseng Bank, Henderson Land, SHK Property, dan Sino Land. Di perkirakan Indeks Berjangka Hangseng hari ini berpotensi menguat, dan pergerakan masih terbatas karena saat ini masih cenderung berada dalam fase konsolidasi.



Gold – FOREX Correlations Weaken as Gold Regains Safe Haven Status


Gold – FOREX Correlations Weaken as Gold Regains Safe Haven Status

The following table includes the correlation between gold and the most popular currency pairs over various timeframes. A value close to +1 indicates a strong positive relationship between gold and the pair, while a value close to -1 indicates a strong negative relationship.

———————————————————————————————————————————

Gold USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF
3 Day 15 Min -0.10 -0.17 0.03 0.20 0.27 0.44 -0.29
1 Week 60 Min 0.71 -0.58 0.44 -0.47 0.16 0.39 -0.39
2 Week 60 Min 0.41 -0.35 -0.21 -0.56 -0.44 -0.65 0.58
1 Month Daily -0.53 0.66 0.79 0.51 0.64 0.34 -0.57

Weekly Commentary: Correlations between major commodity currencies and gold fell further this week as developments in Europe and Greece prompted investors to sell currencies in favor of metals. Furthermore, mid-week US dollar strengthening on risks of more problems with Greek re-profiling was also met with buyers entering the metals market once more to take advantage of the recent dive.

Despite the weaker correlation between major commodity currencies and gold, the connection still remains largely intact as some signals of a US and Chinese industrial strengthening are prompting investors to enter the industrial and base metals market. Because of the tight connection between base metals and precious metals, as well as Australia’s position as a major iron and copper ore producer, the correlation between the AUDUSD as well as other currencies may improve.

Gold-Forex_Correlations_05272011_body_Picture_6.png, Gold - FOREX Correlations Weaken as Gold Regains Safe Haven StatusGold-Forex_Correlations_05272011_body_Picture_8.png, Gold - FOREX Correlations Weaken as Gold Regains Safe Haven Status

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FOREX: Dollar Can’t Recover Ground on Holiday Trading Conditions


TODAY FOREX ANALYSIS

  • Dollar Can’t Recover Ground on Holiday Trading Conditions
  • Euro: Positive Turn in Greece Funding Curbed by Another S&P Warning
  • Australian Dollar Misses Risk Run, Moving on to RBA Decision
  • British Pound Marks a Slow Start to an Event-Heavy Week
  • Swiss Franc Tumbling Quickly as Specific Safe Haven Appeal Fades
  • Japanese Yen Fortified by BoJ’s Positive Outlook, Eased Political Pressure
  • Gold Recovery Lacking for Momentum Until Fiat Demand Weighed

Dollar Can’t Recover Ground on Holiday Trading Conditions

The opening trading day to the week was an unusual one. On the one hand, we had significant fundamental event risk headed up by the ongoing Greek bailout saga. Alternatively, liquidity conditions were distorted by the absence of US market participation due to the extended Independence Day holiday weekend. The combination of these two atypical developments was a market high on volatility but low on meaningful follow through. This is the type of frustrating mix that draws many traders into what-looks-like appealing trades that never gain traction after posting an initial signal for entry. Looking to the dollar, we can see the full effect of this market-imposed lethargy. Despite the early morning attempt to post its first bullish close in five trading days, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar ) ended Monday in the red. A look across the majors gives us clear representation of this greenback-centered weakness. Gains from the core EURUSD and GBPUSD pairs were measured but well-established in an underlying (though decelerating trend); the safe haven balanced USDJPY and USDCHF pairs were mostly unchanged but still dollar negative; and the yield-tipped NZDUSD was pushing new record highs into the beginning of Tuesday’s session.

Much of the currency’s weakness for the opening session can be chalked up to the carryover of selling momentum from the previous week. When there are is a lull in liquidity; the ability to generate a new trend is exceptionally handicapped – especially when the prevailing winds are generally backing a larger selling effort. Essentially, we should look at Monday as a write-off. Assumptions of trend, breakouts and fundamental shifts should be overlooked as they don’t reflect the conviction of the broader markets. If that is the case, we can approach Tuesday’s session as the opening trading day for the dollar. If that is the case, we can draw forward the prominent fundamental considerations that would will determine the benchmark’s bearing through the rest of the week. Risk appetite trends are still but follow through decelerated between the Asian and European sessions Monday; and it is likely to carry this breaking effort into today’s session.

Risk trends are a considerable burden for the dollar when they are positive; but they have offered limited support when negative. This speaks to an underlying truth of the greenback: that the currency is not a pure safe haven but rather a source of liquidity when funding markets freeze up. That being the case, we note that with the passage of Greece’s fifth round of financial support from the European Union, we have temporarily alleviated the threat of a global crisis. In turn, the credit markets have improved and the greenback’s primary appeal has diminished. The European-based sovereign debt issue is still the most immediate threat; but it will be supplanted through the immediate future the approach of the ECB rate decision. This will take a lot of wind out of any offensive that the dollar tries to mount on risk trend from now until Thursday.

Related : Discuss the Dollar in the DailyFX Forum , Today’s Video : ECB Decision versus Greek Financial Crisis for EURUSD Traders’ Attentions

Euro: Positive Turn in Greece Funding Curbed by Another S&P Warning

Another projected outcome was confirmed for euro traders over the weekend; and the support it is offering the currency is visibly wearing thin. After Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou won the confidence vote, it was heavily expected that the country would pass through its additional 78 billion euro austerity measures and secure the fifth tranche of its first bailout package. Indeed, EU Finance Ministers voted this past weekend to release the additional 12 billion in aid (provided the IMF distributes its own portion – which it is expected to approve this Friday). However, from here, the outlook grows a little blurry. Next Monday, the topic of a supplementary bailout package will come up again. In the meantime, Standard & Poor’s threatens to disrupt the quick-fix regime by repeating it would still see a private Greek debt rollover as a default.

Australian Dollar Misses Risk Run, Moving on to RBA Decision

Despite a buoyant start to the week for investor sentiment, the Australian dollar would close Monday out with its first bearish print in five trading days. Considering this weakness was particularly prevalent on AUDNZD, it was clear that the first sub-3.0 percent reading on the TD inflation reading in 11 months along with weak retail sales and approvals weighed the currency specifically. This sets up a dangerous RBA letdown .

British Pound Marks a Slow Start to an Event-Heavy Week

This week is heavy for UK-based scheduled event risk ; but Monday started us out with something of a mix. The economy’s housing sector took another step back with a weaker-than-expected construction sector reading and ongoing 5.8 billion sterling deficit on housing equity withdrawal. Both indicators are indicative of an important sector that will add additional weight to austerity measures and future stimulus/ratings issues.

Swiss Franc Tumbling Quickly as Specific Safe Haven Appeal Fades

The franc is quickly retreating against most of its most liquid counterparts – but is this reason enough to call a top? To determine whether the Swiss currency is indeed retreating from its record or near-record highs requires a fundamental position change. The unit is now finding much of its selling pressure through a reversal in safe haven flows from central Europe to the banking economy; but that in itself is not yet a stable driver.

Japanese Yen Fortified by BoJ’s Positive Outlook, Eased Political Pressure

Economic indicators have limited impact on the yen; and even major swings in growth potential seem to leave the currency little fazed. The real concern is changes to its place as a funding currency. Monday morning, the BoJ upgraded its growth outlook slightly while Finance Minister Noda suggested the government was backing off some of the pressure for further stimulus. These developments modestly diminish that role.

Gold Recovery Lacking for Momentum Until Fiat Demand Weighed

If were just a move posted against the dollar, then we could ascribe gold’s advance Monday to thin markets and a speculative effort to curb bearish speculation through the end of last week. However, the metal posted gains across the board. Fundamentally, confidence in fiat currency has not truly gained much traction. More interesting: net speculative futures positioning dropped last week the most since September 2008.

For Real Time Forex News, visit: http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news/

**For a full list of upcoming event risk and past releases, go to http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar

ECONOMIC DATA

N ext 24 Hours

GMT Currency Release Survey Previous Comments
1:30 AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (MAY) 1900M 1597M Exports to NZ expected to increase
1:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (MAY) -0.6% -1.4% Slower fall brings better outlook for market
2:30 CNY China HSBC Services PMI (JUN) 54.3 Survey expected to follow official lower
4:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision 4.75% 4.75% Commentary will be the most important
7:45 EUR Italian PMI Services (JUN F) 49.6 50.1 Although Italian services industries expected to start shrinking, overall composite numbers expected stagnant
7:50 EUR French PMI Services (JUN F) 56.7 56.7
7:55 EUR German PMI Services (JUN F) 58.3 58.3
8:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Composite (JUN F) 53.6 53.6
8:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Services (JUN F) 54.2 54.2
8:30 GBP PMI Services (JUN) 53.5 53.8 Government cuts, weakness hurting sector
8:30 GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (JUN) -$103M Sharply fallen as bank buys pounds
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY) -1.0% 0.9% Decline in retail sales may not stop this week’s rate decision, but may dull any further hawkishness
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY)(MAY) -0.6% 1.1%
14:00 USD Factory Orders (MAY) 1.0% -1.2% Recovery may lead manufacturing sector
23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (JUN) 2.3% Retail sales steadily climbing

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE – 18 :00 GMT

Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist 2 1.5160 1.6600 89.00 0.9345 1.0275 1.1800 0.8400 122.00 146.05
Resist 1 1.5000 1.6300 86.00 0.8900 1.0000 1.1000 0.8300 118.00 140.00
Spot 1.4543 1.6095 80.76 0.8478 0.9606 1.0732 0.8292 117.45 129.99
Support 1 1.4000 1.5935 80.00 0.8300 0.9500 1.0400 0.7745 113.80 125.00
Support 2 1.3700 1.5750 75.00 0.8250 0.9055 1.0200 0.6850 105.50 119.00

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE – EMERGING MARKETS 18 :00 GMT SCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT

Currency USD/MXN USD/TRY USD/ZAR USD/HKD USD/SGD Currency USD/SEK USD/DKK USD/NOK
Resist 2 13.8500 1.6575 7.4025 7.8165 1.3650 Resist 2 7.5800 5.6625 6.1150
Resist 1 12.5000 1.6300 7.3500 7.8075 1.3250 Resist 1 6.5175 5.3100 5.7075
Spot 11.5835 1.6160 6.7239 7.7807 1.2252 Spot 6.2607 5.1288 5.3407
Support 1 11.5200 1.5040 6.5575 7.7490 1.2145 Support 1 6.0800 5.1050 5.3040
Support 2 11.4400 1.4725 6.4295 7.7450 1.2000 Support 2 5.8085 4.9115 4.9410

INTRA-DAY PIVOT POINTS 18:00 GMT

Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist 2 1.4621 1.6188 81.19 0.8521 0.9639 1.0821 0.8333 118.12 130.44
Resist 1 1.4582 1.6142 80.97 0.8500 0.9623 1.0776 0.8313 117.78 130.21
Pivot 1.4539 1.6094 80.76 0.8481 0.9601 1.0745 0.8290 117.41 129.94
Support 1 1.4500 1.6048 80.54 0.8460 0.9585 1.0700 0.8270 117.07 129.72
Support 2 1.4457 1.6000 80.33 0.8441 0.9563 1.0669 0.8247 116.70 129.45

INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

\ Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist. 3 1.4724 1.6251 81.56 0.8574 0.9693 1.0868 0.8401 119.01 131.47
Resist. 2 1.4679 1.6212 81.36 0.8550 0.9672 1.0834 0.8374 118.62 131.10
Resist. 1 1.4634 1.6173 81.16 0.8526 0.9650 1.0800 0.8346 118.23 130.73
Spot 1.4543 1.6095 80.76 0.8478 0.9606 1.0732 0.8292 117.45 129.99
Support 1 1.4452 1.6017 80.36 0.8430 0.9562 1.0664 0.8238 116.67 129.24
Support 2 1.4407 1.5978 80.16 0.8406 0.9540 1.0630 0.8210 116.28 128.87
Support 3 1.4362 1.5939 79.96 0.8382 0.9519 1.0596 0.8183 115.89 128.50

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Written by: John Kicklighter , Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive John’s reports via email or to submit Questions or Comments about an article; email jkicklighter@dailyfx.com

The information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but of which we have not independently verified. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these materials. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages, including without limitation losses, lost revenues, or lost profits that may result from these materials. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
05 July 2011 00:30 GMT


Gold Approaches Key Support Shift in Appetite to Risk Further Losses


Gold

Gold/USD • NY Spot Close 1487.14

Gold Approaches Key Support- Shift in Appetite to Risk Further Losses

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Bearish

  • Gold Could Fall off a Cliff
  • Gold Price Hurt by Haven Status as Europe Drives Confidence
  • S&P 500 Hints Doubt Bottom, Oil and Gold at Trend-Defining Barriers

With risk appetite returning to markets in full force this week, significant gains in equities coupled with the end of the dollar diluting Fed easing policies are likely to see gold remain on the defensive. This week witnessed gold fall 1.17% on the back of the 2.36% drop seen the previous week. The yellow metal now approaches key support at the 100-day moving average at $1475.

Gold’s inability to climb amid weakness in the dollar may be a pre-curser to further losses moving forward. The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar ) declined more than 1.7% this week as improving risk appetite saw traders jettison the greenback for higher-yielding growth-linked assets. Yet the losses in the dollar and advances in the S&P did not translate into gains for gold, suggesting that there may be a fundamental shift away from the metal as an alternate investment. The breakdown of these key correlations continues to suggest gold me be in a technical correction as traders continue seek riskier assets.

With central banks like the ECB now gearing up to raise interest rates in an attempt to combat higher food and energy costs, the long gold anti-inflationary play will begin to lose its luster as sluggish wage growth and higher rates give rise to deflationary concerns. As appetite continues to pick up, gold becomes less of an attractive asset for traders seeking to maximize exposure to higher yielding investments.

However in light of the recent rally seen in equities, one would expect some consolidation ahead of next week’s jam packed global economic docket with rate decisions from the ECB, BOE, and the RBA on tap. The week closes with Friday’s highly anticipated non-farm payroll figures with estimates calling for a read of just 100K after last month’s dismal print of just 54K. If data next week upsets the recent shift in risk sentiment, gold could pair some of the losses seen this week as traders flock to haven assets. However, with central banks moving to curb inflation and interest rates seen on the rise, the metal should remain well anchored with risk weighted to the downside.

A Fibonacci extension taken from the all-time highs on May 2 nd and the June 22 nd peak reveals downside targets below the 100-day moving average at 76.4% extension at 1468, followed by the convergence of the 100% extension and trendline support dating back to July 28 th 2010 at $1440. If the 100-day moving average holds, a rebound sees topside targets at the 50% Fib extension just shy of the $1500 level, backed by $1530.- MB

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
01 July 2011 22:59 GMT


Gold Approaches Key Support Shift in Appetite to Risk Further Losses


Gold

Gold/USD • NY Spot Close 1487.14

Gold_Approaches_Key_Support_Shift_in_Appetite_to_Risk_Further_Losses__body_xauusd_risk.png, Gold Approaches Key Support- Shift in Appetite to Risk Further Losses Gold Approaches Key Support– Shift in Appetite to Risk Further Losses

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Bearish

  • Gold Could Fall off a Cliff
  • Gold Price Hurt by Haven Status as Europe Drives Confidence
  • S&P 500 Hints Doubt Bottom, Oil and Gold at Trend-Defining Barriers

With risk appetite returning to markets in full force this week, significant gains in equities coupled with the end of the dollar diluting Fed easing policies are likely to see gold remain on the defensive. This week witnessed gold fall 1.17% on the back of the 2.36% drop seen the previous week. The yellow metal now approaches key support at the 100-day moving average at $1475.

Gold’s inability to climb amid weakness in the dollar may be a pre-curser to further losses moving forward. The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar ) declined more than 1.7% this week as improving risk appetite saw traders jettison the greenback for higher-yielding growth-linked assets. Yet the losses in the dollar and advances in the S&P did not translate into gains for gold, suggesting that there may be a fundamental shift away from the metal as an alternate investment. The breakdown of these key correlations continues to suggest gold me be in a technical correction as traders continue seek riskier assets.

With central banks like the ECB now gearing up to raise interest rates in an attempt to combat higher food and energy costs, the long gold anti-inflationary play will begin to lose its luster as sluggish wage growth and higher rates give rise to deflationary concerns. As appetite continues to pick up, gold becomes less of an attractive asset for traders seeking to maximize exposure to higher yielding investments.

However in light of the recent rally seen in equities, one would expect some consolidation ahead of next week’s jam packed global economic docket with rate decisions from the ECB, BOE, and the RBA on tap. The week closes with Friday’s highly anticipated non-farm payroll figures with estimates calling for a read of just 100K after last month’s dismal print of just 54K. If data next week upsets the recent shift in risk sentiment, gold could pair some of the losses seen this week as traders flock to haven assets. However, with central banks moving to curb inflation and interest rates seen on the rise, the metal should remain well anchored with risk weighted to the downside.

A Fibonacci extension taken from the all-time highs on May 2 nd and the June 22 nd peak reveals downside targets below the 100-day moving average at 76.4% extension at 1468, followed by the convergence of the 100% extension and trendline support dating back to July 28 th 2010 at $1440. If the 100-day moving average holds, a rebound sees topside targets at the 50% Fib extension just shy of the $1500 level, backed by $1530.- MB

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
01 July 2011 22:59 GMT


IMF Pangkas Perkiraan GDP AS


Sabtu, 18 Juni 2011 02:34 WIB
TODAY’S ANALYSIS FOREX

International Monetary Fund memangkas perkiraan pertumbuhan ekonomi AS pada hari Jumat dan memperingatkan pihak Washington dan negara yang terserang hutang di Eropa bahwa mereka sedang “bermain-main dengan api” kecuali jika mereka mengambil langkah cepat untuk memangkas defisit anggaran mereka. IMF, dalam penilai rutin mengenai prospek ekonomi global, mengatakan ancaman yang lebih besar terhadap pertumbuhan telah mulai bermunculan sejak laporan sebelumnya di bulan April, terkait krisis hutang di zona Eropa dan tanda overheating pada pasar perekonomian berkembang.

IMF yang berbasis di Washington memperkirakan GDP AS akan bertumbuh sebesar 2.5% tahun ini dan 2.7% di tahun 2012, dibandingkan perkiraan 2 bulan lalu masing-masing sebesar 2.8% dan 2.9%. Sedangkan mengenai perekonomian global secara keseluruhan, IMF menggunakan nada yang netral, mengatakan perlambatan di beberapa bulan belakangan ini akan bersifat “sementara.” IMF juga memangkas perkiraan untuk pertumbuhan global tahun ini menjadi 4.3% dari 4.4%, dan mempertahankan perkiraannya untuk pertumbuhan ekonomi Cina yang kuat sebesar 9.6% kendati tanda perlambatan di sana belakangan ini. Kendati demikian, IMF memperingatkan outlook global yang bagus dapat sekejap turun jika pemerintah di AS dan Eropa tidak mulai menunjukkan kepemimpinan dalam mengatasi permasalahan hutang negaranya.
***EnglishVersion***

IMF cuts U.S. GDP forecast

TODAY’S FOREX ANALYSIS
International Monetary Fund cut its U.S. economic growth forecast on Friday and warned the country that attacked Washington and in European debt that they are “playing with fire” unless they take immediate measures to cut their budget deficits. The IMF, in a regular appraiser on the global economic outlook, said the greater threat to growth has begun to emerge since the previous report in April, related to the debt crisis in the euro zone and the sign of overheating in the market economy develops.

Washington-based IMF estimates that U.S. GDP will grow 2.5% this year and 2.7% in 2012, compared to the projected two months ago respectively of 2.8% and 2.9%. As for the overall global economy, the IMF uses a neutral tone, saying the slowdown in recent months will be “temporary.” The IMF also cut its forecast for global growth this year to 4.3% from 4.4%, and sustain economic growth forecasts for China strong at 9.6% despite signs of a slowdown in there lately. Nevertheless, the IMF warned the global outlook is good can snap off if the government in the U.S. and Europe did not begin to show leadership in addressing the debt problems of the country.


Kesuksesan Yunani Bantu Reli Euro


Jumat, 03 Juni 2011 22:07 WIB
TODAY’S ANALYSIS FOREX
Euro raih level tinggi 1 minggu terhadap dollar setelah Athena katakan inspeksi Uni Eropa/IMF terhadap Yunani berakhir positif. Meski, pasar nantikan bailout kedua untuk Yunani, tapi Kementrian Keuangan tidak sebutkan perjanjian apapun akan bantuan lebih lanjut.

“Diskusi pemerintah Yunani dengan perwakilan dari Komisi Eropa, ECB, dan IMF hasilkan kesimpulan yang positif,” ungkap Kementrian Keuangan. Uni Eropa, ECB, dan IMF akan publikasi hasil pemeriksaan  terhadap implementasi bailout €110 milyar tahun lalu. Perdana Menteri George Papandreou juga akan bertemu dengan Jean-Claude Juncker, ketua kelompok menteri keuangan zona-euro, untuk sampaikan rencana anggaran jangka menengah. Yunani mungkin ajukan pemotongan anggaran belanja lebih dalam, kebijakan yang dapat tingkatkan pendapatan, dan menjual aset negara demi bujuk Uni Eropa dan IMF untuk berikan pinjaman darurat tambahan untuk waktu yang lama.

Sementara itu, euro lanjutkan reli setelah data malam ini tunjukkan lambatnya pemulihan sektor tenaga kerja AS. Euro tengah uji resisten 1.4566, level Fibonacci 61.8% dari kejatuhan 4 Mei hingga 23 Mei; dimana penutupan harian di atas level tersebut dapat pacu kenaikan hingga 1.4647, harga tertinggi 21 April. (fir)


Dar Wong Analysis: EUR & GBP Bergerak Tandem, Profit-Taking Menanti


Dar Wong Analysis: EUR & GBP Bergerak Tandem, Profit-Taking Menanti

Emas2 Mei 2011Minggu ini Dar Wong menengarai EUR/USD bergerak licin di area resisten atas 1.4880, namun penurunan bisa terjadi kapan saja. Demikian juga GBP/USD yang terlihat “mendua” akibat sentimen yang beredar.

Sementara itu Emas terdorong ke high baru ke 1569.10 jumat (29/04) lalu. Walaupun masih naik, namun Dar Wong melihat Emas akan segera dihadang profit-taking di kisaran 1600.00.

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