Becoming Sophisticated About Risk

Posts tagged “European Union

Market Outlook Today

28 September 2011



Komoditi Minyak melemah setelah pada perdagangan kemarin mengalami reli terbesar dalam 4 bulan terakhir. Harga Emas hitam ini terkoreksi karena investor berspekulasi para pemimpin Eropa akan terpecah pendapat dalam rencana meredam krisis utang. Harga minyak tergelincir setelah Financial Times melaporkan beberapa negara di kawasan Euro menuntut kreditor swasta menyerap kerugian yang lebih besar dalam kepemilikan di obligasi Yunani. Sentimen tersebut dikhawatirkan mengancam perlambatan ekonomi dan permintaan bahan bakar. Data tahunan BP Plc menunjukkan kontribusi Uni Eropa dalam permintaan minyak global mencapai 20% di tahun lalu. Selain itu, koreksi harga minyak juga terjadi setelah American Petroleum Institute melaporkan stok bensin AS meningkat 4,6 juta barel per pekan lalu. Ini level tertinggi dalam lima minggu. Stok minyak mentah juga dilaporkan naik 568.000 barel.


Komoditi Emas mengalami rebound ditengah pelemahan dollar AS terhadap mata uang utama dunia lainnya dan membaiknya minat investor pada aset beresiko. Penguatan Emas dibarengi kenaikan bursa saham Amerika sebesar 1% dan juga penguatan Euro terhadap dollar AS yang ditunjang oleh optimisme bahwa petinggi Uni Eropa akan meningkatkan dana talangan guna menangani krisis hutang. Sementara itu permintaan Emas secara fisik dari kawasan Asia dilaporkan mengalami lonjakan sangat tinggi diantaranya di Hongkong dan Singapura yang mencapai level tertinggi sejak Februari didominasi permintaan dari ritel dan konsumen pelaku industri. Permintaan dari India sebagai salah satu konsumen terbesar Emas dunia juga terus meningkat menyambut musim pembelian emas secara tradisional untuk menghadapi festival‐festival tahunan.


Mata uang tunggal Eropa Euro mengalami pelemahan terhadap dolar AS, Euro bergerak retreat terhadap rivalnya ini didorong oleh kekhawatiran bahwa langkah-langkah yang diambil para petinggi Eropa untuk mengatasi krisis akan kurang memberikan hasil yang diharapkan. Kekhawatiran bahwa krisis keuangan Eropa akan mengakibatkan melambatnya ekonomi mengakibatkan tekanan jual yang lumayan besar terhadap mata uang tunggal di Eropa. Para pelaku pasar terpecah setelah beberapa petinggi Eropa menyatakan keenganan untuk meningkatkan pemberian bantuan bagi negara-negara bermasalah. Di perkirakan Euro pada perdagangan hari ini berpotensi mengalami penurunan lanjutan.


Bursa saham Hongkong pada perdagangan di hari Rabu pagi mengalami pelemahan yang cukup signifikan, bursa saham Hongkong mengabaikan kenaikan yang terjadi di bursa saham Wall Street menyusul kembalinya harapan mengenai penyelesaian krisis Eropa. Sentimen negatif kelihatan cukup kental di bursa saham Hongkong pagi ini disebabkan oleh melemahnya saham-saham di sektor properti. Di perkirakan Indeks Berjangka Hangseng hari ini berpotensi mengalami pelemahan tapi terbatas.

Dollar on Edge with Deficit Deadline, ISM Report Stokes Volatility

Dollar on Edge with Deficit Deadline, ISM Report Stokes Volatility

By John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist

02 August 2011 03:23 GMT
  • Dollar on Edge with Deficit Deadline, ISM Report Stokes Volatility
  • Euro Drawn Between Dollar Volatility, EU Trouble, Upcoming ECB Decision
  • Australian Dollar Readies for RBA Decision as Risk Trends Pick Up
  • British Pound Tumbles with Risk, Helped Along by Manufacturing Contraction
  • Japanese Yen Looking at More Volatility as Intervention Rhetoric Heats Up
  • Swiss Franc Solidifies Gains After Economics Minister Says Strength to Stay
  • Gold Ramps up the Volatility as Market Debates US Financial Rescue Effort

Dollar on Edge with Deficit Deadline, ISM Report Stokes Volatility

Given the volatility the FX and capital markets demonstrated through the close on Friday and the running countdown for the US to surpass the legal limit on its deficit; excitement was guaranteed through for the opening day of the new trading week. Volatility on the dollar-based majors and broader capital markets stepped it up yet again – though direction is still as lacking as ever. Through Monday’s open, the greenback was once again under pressure as risk appetite started off strong. In fact, S&P 500 futures gapped up 1.2 percent on the Asian open from Friday’s close. In contrast, the dollar didn’t produce such a dramatic jump; but it did lose ground through much of the Asian and early European sessions as news that Congressional leaders reached a compromise on the budget deficit that could offer quick relief to tense financial and credit markets. Though, the fact that the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) slipped as a viable debt solution seemed to be in the works should reflect on the skepticism that is still prevalent in the markets.

This cynicism that a debt deal would be pushed through or that it would offer the dollar an immediate boost could have weighed the greenback indefinitely had a wave of risk aversion not leveraged the currency’s battered safe haven appeal. As the day wore on, data from China, Australia, Japan, the Euro Zone and the United Kingdom reflected a slowing in factory activity that seems to be reflecting a downshift in global growth. The concern was nagging; but fear that a serious economic slump could be in the works didn’t really set in until the US ISM manufacturing activity survey for July crossed the wires. The 50.9 reading was a substantial miss (below even the lowest economist forecast from Bloomberg) and threatened the primary source of growth the US economy has drawn from since the recovery was established back in 2009. In turn, the S&P 500 Index would turn a remarkable bullish gap on the open into an eventual 2.5 percent retracement through the first half of the day.

The ISM indicator, along with the other manufacturing readings from the around the world, are an important reminder that economic activity is cooling. The feeble health of the developed world’s consumer is finally meeting the global shift towards austerity (China, Euro Zone, UK). That leaves the US in a unique position: either join the stimulus withdrawal and suffer the economic slowdown; or pursue financial responsibility and potentially turn a slowdown into a double dip recession. This is another layer of complication to the deficit debate at hand. According to the original timeline; the window is supposed to close by the coming session. That said, it seems that the revised two-stage program that has garnered support from Congressional leaders and already passed the House looks to have a good chance of making it all the way through. Yet, it is still under heavy debate as to whether the planned cuts would be enough to prevent a downgrade by the major credit rating agencies. Such an outcome would surely be dollar negative. Though if this effort tips the global economy, there could be a redeeming value to the greenback.

Related:Discuss the Dollar in the DailyFX Forum, John’s Picks: Controlling Risk is Tantamount as Volatility Prevails and Direction Absent

Euro Drawn Between Dollar Volatility, EU Trouble, Upcoming ECB Decision

Fortunately for the euro, headlines about the US deficit debate are still crowding out many of the updates surrounding the Euro Zone’s own troubles. Notable for the day was the fact that the Italian 10 year government bond yield closed at a record high 6.00 percent while the Spanish equivalent advanced to 6.20 percent. Remember, Greece, Ireland and Portugal required bailouts not long after breaching the 7.00 percent level. In the meantime, volatility in risk trends contributed to dramatic losses for European benchmark equity indexes. It will be interesting to see how this combination of funding troubles and the economic slowdown influences the ECB’s decision later this week. Can then keep ignoring it?

Australian Dollar Readies for RBA Decision as Risk Trends Pick Up

We are quickly approaching the RBA rate decision; and rate expectations are somewhat mixed. Looking at overnight index swaps; we see that there is a 16 percent probability of a 25 bps rate cut yet the 12 month forecast is pricing in 27 bps of easing. If we recall the last meeting, Governor Stevens leveraged the importance of CPI; and the 2Q figures a two-and-a-half year high 3.6 percent. Is that enough to make a call?

British Pound Tumbles with Risk, Helped Along by Manufacturing Contraction

It seems much of the world is on the same path of austerity and economic slowdown that the UK pioneered with its self-imposed deficit efforts. Under these circumstances, it isn’t good to be first; because it is exponentially harder to recovery from a slowdown that was ahead of the global curve. We were reminded of this Monday when the UK factory activity reading turned negative for the first time since September 2009.

Japanese Yen Looking at More Volatility as Intervention Rhetoric Heats Up

Talk of Japanese intervention is picking up amongst policy officials, economists and traders. According to Nikkei news group, the central bank is preparing for FX intervention; and an independent move could be quickly followed by a coordinated effort. Should we take these warnings seriously? The short-term impact can certainly generate volatility; but fighting larger trends (like dollar selling) is always a losing game.

Swiss Franc Solidifies Gains After Economic Minister Says Strength to Stay

There are many examples of failed efforts of intervention; but some of the worst results have to fall to the Swiss National Bank which has come under significant scrutiny due to the losses on its reserves fighting the market tide. The futility of this effort seems to be setting in, however, as we had the nation’s Economic Minister warned the high exchange rate is here to stay and it means “extremely tough years” for exporters ahead.

Gold Ramps up the Volatility as Market Debates US Financial Rescue Effort

Like the US dollar and Treasuries, gold put in for an exceptionally volatile session through Monday. Through that same comparison, though, the metal was just as lacking for direction. To stoke capital flows into the metal once again (or away from it should there be palatable deficit resolution); we need an unmistakable view of the United States’ fiscal position: destined for downgrade or slow return to prudence.

**For a full list of upcoming event risk and past releases, go to


Next 24 Hours

GMT Currency Release Survey Previous Comments
1:30 AUD House Price Index (YoY) (Q2) -3.0% -0.2% Lower expected house index may suggest softening real estate sector
1:30 AUD House Price Index (QoQ) (Q2) -1.0% -1.7%
1:30 AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (JUN) 3.0% -7.9% A mild recovery in building recoveries despite prices fall points to future recovery
1:30 AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (JUN) -10.3% -14.4%
1:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (JUN) 0.4% 1.0% Japanese labor market still soft
4:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision 4.75% 4.75% Major event of the day: Q2 CPI came in higher than expected despite record-high AUD; RBA may change their commentary on rate hikes
6:30 AUD RBA Commodity Price Index (JUL) 109.4 Commodities price index may hit new high on record strength of metals
6:30 AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (JUL) 28.2%
7:15 CHF Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (JUN) -4.1% Previous was lowest since March 2009
7:30 CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (JUL) 52.5 53.4 PMI expected to be hurt by strong franc
8:30 GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (JUL) 53.1 53.6 Index may fall due to government cuts
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (JUN) 0.1% -0.2% Index correlated with consumer prices expected to weaken on a long-term basis on slower recovery, demand
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) 5.9% 6.2%
12:30 USD Personal Income (JUN) 0.2% 0.3% Consumption driver of the US economy expected to stay relatively flat as overall economy still weak, uncertain
12:30 USD Personal Spending (JUN) 0.2% 0.0%
12:30 USD Personal Consumption Exp Deflator (YoY) (JUN) 2.5%
12:30 USD Personal Consumption Exp Core (MoM) (JUN) 0.2% 0.3%
12:30 USD Personal Consumption Exp Core (YoY) (JUN) 1.4% 1.2%
21:00 USD Total Vehicle Sales (JUL) 11.85M 11.41M A small pick-up in vehicle sales may be due to beginning of 2nd half purchasing by institutions
21:00 USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (JUL) 9.25M 8.95M
23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (JUL) 2.9% Retail sales index may indicate CPI
23:30 AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (JUL) 48.5 Service sector at post-recession levels
GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (JUL) 0.0% 1.2% House prices watched by BoE may support further lax policies to support economic recovery
GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (JUL) -2.8% -3.5%
GMT Currency Upcoming Events & Speeches
12:30 USD Annual Revisions: Personal Income and Spending



Resist 2 1.5160 1.6600 86.00 0.8900 1.0275 1.1800 0.9020 118.00 146.05
Resist 1 1.5000 1.6475 81.50 0.8550 1.0000 1.1000 0.8750 113.50 140.00
Spot 1.4268 1.6297 77.08 0.7817 0.9561 1.0964 0.8762 109.98 125.62
Support 1 1.4000 1.5935 77.00 0.7800 0.9425 1.0400 0.7745 109.00 125.00
Support 2 1.3700 1.5750 76.25 0.7600 0.9055 1.0200 0.6850 106.00 119.00


Resist 2 13.8500 1.8235 7.4025 7.8165 1.3650 Resist 2 7.5800 5.6625 6.1150
Resist 1 12.5000 1.7425 7.3500 7.8075 1.3250 Resist 1 6.5175 5.3100 5.7075
Spot 11.7277 1.6911 6.7309 7.7906 1.2018 Spot 6.3245 5.2217 5.3789
Support 1 11.5200 1.6500 6.5575 7.7490 1.2000 Support 1 6.0800 5.1050 5.3040
Support 2 11.4400 1.5725 6.4295 7.7450 1.1800 Support 2 5.8085 4.9115 4.9410


Resist 2 1.4571 1.6575 78.89 0.8056 0.9667 1.1127 0.8889 113.85 130.45
Resist 1 1.4420 1.6436 77.99 0.7936 0.9614 1.1045 0.8826 111.92 128.03
Pivot 1.4302 1.6337 77.14 0.7834 0.9553 1.0984 0.8779 110.31 126.12
Support 1 1.4151 1.6198 76.24 0.7714 0.9500 1.0902 0.8716 108.38 123.70
Support 2 1.4033 1.6099 75.39 0.7612 0.9439 1.0841 0.8669 106.77 121.79


Resist. 3 1.4462 1.6454 77.97 0.7926 0.9657 1.1106 0.8882 111.61 127.17
Resist. 2 1.4414 1.6415 77.74 0.7899 0.9633 1.1071 0.8852 111.21 126.79
Resist. 1 1.4365 1.6376 77.52 0.7872 0.9609 1.1035 0.8822 110.80 126.40
Spot 1.4268 1.6297 77.08 0.7817 0.9561 1.0964 0.8762 109.98 125.62
Support 1 1.4171 1.6218 76.64 0.7762 0.9513 1.0893 0.8702 109.16 124.84
Support 2 1.4122 1.6179 76.42 0.7735 0.9489 1.0857 0.8672 108.75 124.45
Support 3 1.4074 1.6140 76.19 0.7708 0.9465 1.0822 0.8642 108.35 124.07


Written by: John Kicklighter, Senior Currency Strategist for

Euro trades Sharply Higher on Greek Deal – What’s Next?

By David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist

22 July 2011 23:59 GMT

euro_trades_higher_greek_deal_forecast_body_Picture_5.png, Euro trades Sharply Higher on Greek Deal – What’s Next?

Euro trades Sharply Higher on Greek Deal – What’s Next?

Fundamental Forecast for the Euro: Neutral

The Euro rallied sharply against the US Dollar on a breakthrough agreement on further aid for Greece, closing a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the at-risk country and for the broader euro zone. Officials released details of a far-reaching agreement and offered concrete details on further fiscal aid for periphery nations. A pronounced rally across European bond markets and the euro itself underlined that plans were well-received, but a key week for European economic data could ultimately decide euro price action in the days ahead.

Euro zone periphery debt crises are far from over, but the recent agreement ostensibly puts market focus back on economic fundamentals and not on government solvency. Key German Unemployment Change, Consumer Price Index, and Retail Sales figures could subsequently force sharp moves across euro pairs.

The euro had strengthened significantly against the US Dollar and other major counterparts as markets predicted the European Central Bank would be among the most aggressive to raise interest rates from record-lows. Indeed, the ECB has since hiked target rates by 0.50 percent, and Overnight Index Swaps have priced in another 33bps through the coming 12 months. The US Federal Reserve, by comparison, has left interest rates at record lows and traders predict a mere 17bps in interest rate increases through the same stretch. Interest rate differentials favor further EURUSD strength, but it will be important to see momentum remain in favor of further euro gains—especially on key data.

Expectations call for German and broader European Consumer Price Index inflation remained above the ECB’s official target of 2.0 percent through July, and central bank president Jean Claude Trichet has been resolute in calling for fairly aggressive monetary policy measures on elevated price pressures. It will be important to watch for surprises in CPI results as well as employment figures, as both are likely to figure into future ECB moves.

Ultimately, the euro’s direction against key counterparts should depend on traditional fundamentals—not ongoing struggles with periphery nation debt. There remain details that need to be sorted out with the new deal on Greek debt, and individual parliaments must ratify the deal. Yet the long-term nature of the deal suggests troubles with Greece are less relevant to day-to-day price action. Spanish and Italian bond yield surges remain a concern, but stability at or around current levels would decrease fears of further debt stresses.

The Euro/US Dollar has traded to key resistance at a falling trendline from May lows, and whether or not the pair can move above $1.44 could set the tone for the coming months of trade. We will watch European data with great interest, while ongoing developments surrounding US debt ceiling concerns could likewise affect USD pairs. – DR

US Dollar Traders Have to Monitor Debt Talks, Euro Market, Risk Trends

US Dollar Traders Have to Monitor Debt Talks, Euro Market, Risk Trends

By John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist

22 July 2011 21:54 GMT

The US Dollar $USD IndexNY Spot Close 9457.56
US_Dollar_Traders_Have_to_Monitor_Debt_Talks_Euro_Market_Risk_Trends_body_USDOLLAR_risk.png, US Dollar Traders Have to Monitor Debt Talks, Euro Market, Risk Trends

US Dollar Traders Have to Monitor Debt Talks, Euro Market, Risk Trends

Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar: Neutral

The countdown for the US is getting serious. We have concluded another weak where the US government has failed to come to a compromise on its deficit troubles. Further creating troubles for the greenback, we have seen the European funding market (a source of liquidity costs that plays to the dollar’s safe haven status) come into at least a temporary period of relief with a massive bailout effort by the EU; while risk appetite trends have taken a considerable jump to defer that long-threatened collapse. That said, all of these headwinds will do more to anchor the currency than necessarily generate a meaningful trend over the next week.

Heading into the new trading week, the deficit debate carries the greatest potential sway over the dollar. Depending on how this situation evolves; it could have a sweeping effect over the single currency and even the broader financial markets. Yet, it is prudent to work within reasonable probabilities to interpret how this matter will influence the dollar. If our outlook were for two weeks, it would be a virtual guarantee that the greenback is in for significant volatility and even a significant trend. However, our outlook is just for the upcoming week. That being the case, the outlook is far more fluid. Considering the deficit ceiling will be officially breached on August 2nd, there is time for political maneuvering as Democrats and Republicans gain points for sticking to their guns. It is a severely low probability that this situation ends in a technical default and the likelihood of a solution before next weekend is high.

How the deficit solution impacts the dollar and capital markets is a function of what is agreed to. If the limit is simply lifted to avoid the pain of a default event, it could offer temporary relief to capital markets and the greenback in equal parts. That said, the follow through would likely be limited as ratings agencies have warned the reasoning for a downgrade runs beyond just the quick fix and to the lack of long-term fiscal plan. Alternatively, should there be proposal that targets significant deficit reduction over a reasonable timeframe through a revenue (taxes) focus, an expenditure (spending) focus or a mix of both; it could be seen as an effort to pump the break on the economy and withdraw the very stimulus that has driven confidence and capital markets since the Great Recession – which would weigh on risk appetite which adds a safe haven appeal to the dollar as it garners attention for improved outlook for stability. If we end the week without a clear solution; expect volatility to grow increasingly unstable as rumors and headlines spur fear and speculation.

Another major driver for the dollar that fits within the ‘theme’ category is the blowback the greenback bears from the perception of the Euro Zone’s credit health. This past week, officials announced sweeping policy agendas to smother the sense of crisis contagion in the sovereign and private lending markets. There were major efforts adopted; but there are also significant shortfalls. Ultimately it comes down to market sentiment. If the steps taken don’t boost confidence or if risk aversion is an engrained and global driver, the euro will continue its slide and thereby boost its most liquid counterpart: the dollar.

When it comes down to it, these more pervasive and vague problems will determine the dollar’s activity level and general direction. However, there are a few scheduled events that can stir short-term volatility and perhaps even contribute or detract from existing trends. We have consumer confidence and housing sector data; but the real market-mover is the first reading of 2Q GDP. Depending on how risk trends are behaving, the outcome for the dollar can follow risk trends or speculation for additional stimulus. – JK

6 Month Euro Forecast: Looking for the EURUSD at 1.25

6 Month Euro Forecast: Looking for the EURUSD at 1.25

By David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist

13 July 2011 06:00 GMT

The Euro has done well through the first half of 2011, rallying to fresh multi-year highs against the US Dollar and strengthening against almost all G10 counterparts. There remain clear fundamental risks for the single currency in the second half of 2011, and we look for the Euro to fall. The major concern is whether several at-risk countries can remain stable despite clear debt crises. The European Central Bank’s next actions may prove pivotal—especially as the Euro has strengthened on robust interest rate forecasts and is at risk of losses on any significant downgrades. The number of risks to the Euro arguably outweighs those to the US Dollar, leaving us watching for further EURUSD declines. We look for the EUR/USD to end 2011 below 1.25.

European Sovereign Debt Crisis – Where Did We Start and Where Do We Stand?

The euro zone financial debt crisis continues to threaten EUR stability and remains a key risk through the second half of the year. At the forefront of traders’ minds is Greece—can the southern European state withstand market pressures and remain solvent?

Despite a €110 billion three year bailout agreement with the European Union and International Monetary Fund, Greece has yet to see the light at the end of the tunnel. The difficulty lies in the structure of the bailout deal. When the International Monetary Fund agreed to loans, it required that the Greek government return to the debt markets for its borrowing needs as soon as 2012. At the time, this request seemed reasonable. With backstops from the EU and IMF, international investors would be more likely to buy Greek debt. Yet the continuing sell-off in Greek bonds underline that few are willing to hold existing Greek debt—much less buy any newly-issued debt.

The cost to insure against a Greek debt default has recently hit record-highs as seen through Credit Default Swaps, and current sovereign debt ratings imply a 50 percent chance of a Greek default within the coming five years.

A further bailout seems increasingly necessary and likely, but uncertainty over Greece’s ability to repay debts could likewise spread to other at-risk government treasuries.

Spain and Portugal Outlook Uncertain on Funding Needs

The key risk with periphery debt crises has and will always be contagion—will Greece’s troubles affect other periphery nations and even spill into the core through higher bond yields? In absolute terms, bailouts for Greece, Portugal, and Ireland have cost relatively little. Together, the three economies comprise approximately 5 percent of total euro zone Gross Domestic Product. If EMU titans Spain (8.9 percent of GDP) and Italy (12.8 percent of GDP) fall into trouble, however, European coffers may not be able to cope with the required fiscal aid.

The spread between benchmark Spanish and German government bond yields has recently widened to its largest since the inception of the euro—implying that Spain’s relative debt risk is worsening. And though a 10-year Spanish government bond yield of approximately 5.5 percent is low by historical standards, the widening gulf could further exacerbate government deficits. Much the same can be said for Italy. A key question is whether bond troubles in periphery nations can spread to the core, truly threatening the stability of the single currency zone.

Of course, there have been plenty of reasons that the euro has strengthened despite these readily apparent sovereign debt crises.

European Central Bank – Can They Continue to Hike Rates?

Expectations that the European Central Bank will be among the most aggressive central banks in raising interest rates has driven speculative interest in the euro, pushing the price up in the first half of this year. A key question will be whether the ECB will follow through on lofty forecasts and continue to raise interest rates, further supporting the currency.

Robust interest rate forecasts have driven the euro higher against the US Dollar and Japanese Yen—currencies that hold the dubious honor of the two lowest-yielding among the industrialized world.

Overnight Index Swaps, a tool used by major financial institutions to bet on and hedge against interest rate moves, show that traders expect the ECB could raise rates three times through the second half of 2012 in order to head off inflation in the Euro Zone. This compares to forecasts that the US Federal Reserve will leave interest rates roughly unchanged through the same stretch. The Bank of Japan is similarly forecast to leave monetary policy effectively unchanged and to keep Japanese short-term interest rates near zero.

Yet in markets nothing is guaranteed, and indeed we might argue that the euro has seen about all of the yield-linked support it will enjoy. That is to say, it would likely take a material improvement in ECB forecasts (and subsequent rate hikes) to continue driving EUR gains.

Can the European Central Bank continue to set hawkish monetary policy despite clear economic and fiscal struggles in periphery nations? ECB President Jean Claude Trichet has continued to emphasize that the central bank sets policy for the whole of the monetary union and cannot ignore mounting inflationary pressures. Yet with fiscal austerity packages guaranteed across the euro zone, demand-driven inflation could quickly abate and lessen the need for tightened policy.

All else remaining equal, the euro would almost certainly fall on a sharp downgrade in ECB interest rate expectations. Of course, nothing ever remains equal in financial markets and there are a number of mitigating factors that could strongly affect the single currency.

Financial Markets Continue to Drive Currencies

The euro remains a currency closely linked to equities markets, with the EUR/USD tending to rise with stocks, and tending to fall when stocks fall. Further market turmoil could almost certainly derail the recent EUR strength. The correlation between the Euro/US Dollar currency pair and the US Dow Jones Industrial Average has recently been trading near record levels; Dow variation has theoretically explained up to 45 percent of Euro movements. Part of this relationship is the US Dollar’s appeal as the currency of many popular “safe” investments—most notably US Treasury Bonds. On the other side of it, the euro is arguably among the most at-risk assets in financial market upheaval as debt market difficulties could further exacerbate the current European sovereign debt crises.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average limped into the second half of the year, declining for six consecutive trading weeks and posting its worst performance in nearly a decade. It should come as relatively little surprise that especially sharp equities sell-offs forced EURUSD weakness, and indeed a continuation could see the US Dollar further regain ground against its high-flying European counterpart.

Euro in Favorable Long-Term Trend but with Considerable Risks in the Second Half of 2011

The Euro remains well within a decade-long uptrend against the US Dollar, but the medium-term outlook is fraught with risk as doubts remain about euro zone economic and political stability. Of course, the US Dollar is not without its own issues and actual EURUSD price action will depend on a great number of different dynamics.

Whether or not the euro remains in its broader uptrend will greatly depend on developments in sovereign debt crises and market expectations regarding the European Central Bank. It seems that risks generally favor Euro losses, and indeed our forecast remains bearish into the end of 2011.

FOREX: Dollar Can’t Recover Ground on Holiday Trading Conditions


  • Dollar Can’t Recover Ground on Holiday Trading Conditions
  • Euro: Positive Turn in Greece Funding Curbed by Another S&P Warning
  • Australian Dollar Misses Risk Run, Moving on to RBA Decision
  • British Pound Marks a Slow Start to an Event-Heavy Week
  • Swiss Franc Tumbling Quickly as Specific Safe Haven Appeal Fades
  • Japanese Yen Fortified by BoJ’s Positive Outlook, Eased Political Pressure
  • Gold Recovery Lacking for Momentum Until Fiat Demand Weighed

Dollar Can’t Recover Ground on Holiday Trading Conditions

The opening trading day to the week was an unusual one. On the one hand, we had significant fundamental event risk headed up by the ongoing Greek bailout saga. Alternatively, liquidity conditions were distorted by the absence of US market participation due to the extended Independence Day holiday weekend. The combination of these two atypical developments was a market high on volatility but low on meaningful follow through. This is the type of frustrating mix that draws many traders into what-looks-like appealing trades that never gain traction after posting an initial signal for entry. Looking to the dollar, we can see the full effect of this market-imposed lethargy. Despite the early morning attempt to post its first bullish close in five trading days, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar ) ended Monday in the red. A look across the majors gives us clear representation of this greenback-centered weakness. Gains from the core EURUSD and GBPUSD pairs were measured but well-established in an underlying (though decelerating trend); the safe haven balanced USDJPY and USDCHF pairs were mostly unchanged but still dollar negative; and the yield-tipped NZDUSD was pushing new record highs into the beginning of Tuesday’s session.

Much of the currency’s weakness for the opening session can be chalked up to the carryover of selling momentum from the previous week. When there are is a lull in liquidity; the ability to generate a new trend is exceptionally handicapped – especially when the prevailing winds are generally backing a larger selling effort. Essentially, we should look at Monday as a write-off. Assumptions of trend, breakouts and fundamental shifts should be overlooked as they don’t reflect the conviction of the broader markets. If that is the case, we can approach Tuesday’s session as the opening trading day for the dollar. If that is the case, we can draw forward the prominent fundamental considerations that would will determine the benchmark’s bearing through the rest of the week. Risk appetite trends are still but follow through decelerated between the Asian and European sessions Monday; and it is likely to carry this breaking effort into today’s session.

Risk trends are a considerable burden for the dollar when they are positive; but they have offered limited support when negative. This speaks to an underlying truth of the greenback: that the currency is not a pure safe haven but rather a source of liquidity when funding markets freeze up. That being the case, we note that with the passage of Greece’s fifth round of financial support from the European Union, we have temporarily alleviated the threat of a global crisis. In turn, the credit markets have improved and the greenback’s primary appeal has diminished. The European-based sovereign debt issue is still the most immediate threat; but it will be supplanted through the immediate future the approach of the ECB rate decision. This will take a lot of wind out of any offensive that the dollar tries to mount on risk trend from now until Thursday.

Related : Discuss the Dollar in the DailyFX Forum , Today’s Video : ECB Decision versus Greek Financial Crisis for EURUSD Traders’ Attentions

Euro: Positive Turn in Greece Funding Curbed by Another S&P Warning

Another projected outcome was confirmed for euro traders over the weekend; and the support it is offering the currency is visibly wearing thin. After Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou won the confidence vote, it was heavily expected that the country would pass through its additional 78 billion euro austerity measures and secure the fifth tranche of its first bailout package. Indeed, EU Finance Ministers voted this past weekend to release the additional 12 billion in aid (provided the IMF distributes its own portion – which it is expected to approve this Friday). However, from here, the outlook grows a little blurry. Next Monday, the topic of a supplementary bailout package will come up again. In the meantime, Standard & Poor’s threatens to disrupt the quick-fix regime by repeating it would still see a private Greek debt rollover as a default.

Australian Dollar Misses Risk Run, Moving on to RBA Decision

Despite a buoyant start to the week for investor sentiment, the Australian dollar would close Monday out with its first bearish print in five trading days. Considering this weakness was particularly prevalent on AUDNZD, it was clear that the first sub-3.0 percent reading on the TD inflation reading in 11 months along with weak retail sales and approvals weighed the currency specifically. This sets up a dangerous RBA letdown .

British Pound Marks a Slow Start to an Event-Heavy Week

This week is heavy for UK-based scheduled event risk ; but Monday started us out with something of a mix. The economy’s housing sector took another step back with a weaker-than-expected construction sector reading and ongoing 5.8 billion sterling deficit on housing equity withdrawal. Both indicators are indicative of an important sector that will add additional weight to austerity measures and future stimulus/ratings issues.

Swiss Franc Tumbling Quickly as Specific Safe Haven Appeal Fades

The franc is quickly retreating against most of its most liquid counterparts – but is this reason enough to call a top? To determine whether the Swiss currency is indeed retreating from its record or near-record highs requires a fundamental position change. The unit is now finding much of its selling pressure through a reversal in safe haven flows from central Europe to the banking economy; but that in itself is not yet a stable driver.

Japanese Yen Fortified by BoJ’s Positive Outlook, Eased Political Pressure

Economic indicators have limited impact on the yen; and even major swings in growth potential seem to leave the currency little fazed. The real concern is changes to its place as a funding currency. Monday morning, the BoJ upgraded its growth outlook slightly while Finance Minister Noda suggested the government was backing off some of the pressure for further stimulus. These developments modestly diminish that role.

Gold Recovery Lacking for Momentum Until Fiat Demand Weighed

If were just a move posted against the dollar, then we could ascribe gold’s advance Monday to thin markets and a speculative effort to curb bearish speculation through the end of last week. However, the metal posted gains across the board. Fundamentally, confidence in fiat currency has not truly gained much traction. More interesting: net speculative futures positioning dropped last week the most since September 2008.

For Real Time Forex News, visit:

**For a full list of upcoming event risk and past releases, go to


N ext 24 Hours

GMT Currency Release Survey Previous Comments
1:30 AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (MAY) 1900M 1597M Exports to NZ expected to increase
1:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (MAY) -0.6% -1.4% Slower fall brings better outlook for market
2:30 CNY China HSBC Services PMI (JUN) 54.3 Survey expected to follow official lower
4:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision 4.75% 4.75% Commentary will be the most important
7:45 EUR Italian PMI Services (JUN F) 49.6 50.1 Although Italian services industries expected to start shrinking, overall composite numbers expected stagnant
7:50 EUR French PMI Services (JUN F) 56.7 56.7
7:55 EUR German PMI Services (JUN F) 58.3 58.3
8:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Composite (JUN F) 53.6 53.6
8:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Services (JUN F) 54.2 54.2
8:30 GBP PMI Services (JUN) 53.5 53.8 Government cuts, weakness hurting sector
8:30 GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (JUN) -$103M Sharply fallen as bank buys pounds
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY) -1.0% 0.9% Decline in retail sales may not stop this week’s rate decision, but may dull any further hawkishness
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY)(MAY) -0.6% 1.1%
14:00 USD Factory Orders (MAY) 1.0% -1.2% Recovery may lead manufacturing sector
23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (JUN) 2.3% Retail sales steadily climbing



Resist 2 1.5160 1.6600 89.00 0.9345 1.0275 1.1800 0.8400 122.00 146.05
Resist 1 1.5000 1.6300 86.00 0.8900 1.0000 1.1000 0.8300 118.00 140.00
Spot 1.4543 1.6095 80.76 0.8478 0.9606 1.0732 0.8292 117.45 129.99
Support 1 1.4000 1.5935 80.00 0.8300 0.9500 1.0400 0.7745 113.80 125.00
Support 2 1.3700 1.5750 75.00 0.8250 0.9055 1.0200 0.6850 105.50 119.00


Resist 2 13.8500 1.6575 7.4025 7.8165 1.3650 Resist 2 7.5800 5.6625 6.1150
Resist 1 12.5000 1.6300 7.3500 7.8075 1.3250 Resist 1 6.5175 5.3100 5.7075
Spot 11.5835 1.6160 6.7239 7.7807 1.2252 Spot 6.2607 5.1288 5.3407
Support 1 11.5200 1.5040 6.5575 7.7490 1.2145 Support 1 6.0800 5.1050 5.3040
Support 2 11.4400 1.4725 6.4295 7.7450 1.2000 Support 2 5.8085 4.9115 4.9410


Resist 2 1.4621 1.6188 81.19 0.8521 0.9639 1.0821 0.8333 118.12 130.44
Resist 1 1.4582 1.6142 80.97 0.8500 0.9623 1.0776 0.8313 117.78 130.21
Pivot 1.4539 1.6094 80.76 0.8481 0.9601 1.0745 0.8290 117.41 129.94
Support 1 1.4500 1.6048 80.54 0.8460 0.9585 1.0700 0.8270 117.07 129.72
Support 2 1.4457 1.6000 80.33 0.8441 0.9563 1.0669 0.8247 116.70 129.45


Resist. 3 1.4724 1.6251 81.56 0.8574 0.9693 1.0868 0.8401 119.01 131.47
Resist. 2 1.4679 1.6212 81.36 0.8550 0.9672 1.0834 0.8374 118.62 131.10
Resist. 1 1.4634 1.6173 81.16 0.8526 0.9650 1.0800 0.8346 118.23 130.73
Spot 1.4543 1.6095 80.76 0.8478 0.9606 1.0732 0.8292 117.45 129.99
Support 1 1.4452 1.6017 80.36 0.8430 0.9562 1.0664 0.8238 116.67 129.24
Support 2 1.4407 1.5978 80.16 0.8406 0.9540 1.0630 0.8210 116.28 128.87
Support 3 1.4362 1.5939 79.96 0.8382 0.9519 1.0596 0.8183 115.89 128.50


Written by: John Kicklighter , Senior Currency Strategist for

To receive John’s reports via email or to submit Questions or Comments about an article; email

The information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but of which we have not independently verified. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these materials. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages, including without limitation losses, lost revenues, or lost profits that may result from these materials. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
05 July 2011 00:30 GMT

Kompromi Masalah Yunani Selamatkan Aussie

Sabtu, 18 Juni 2011 02:08 WIB

Dollar Australia menghentikan penurunan 2 hari berturut-turut pada hari Jumat setelah Kanselir Jerman Angela Merkel sepakat untuk berkompromi dan bekerja sama dengan European Central Bank dalam mengupayakan paket bailout baru untuk Yunani, yang memulihkan permintaan untuk aset beresiko.

Aussie juga berhasil mencatat kenaikan mingguan terbesar dalam satu bulan terhadap mata uang AS pasca produktivitas industri China dilaporkan meningkat.
“Jerman telah melunak dan mereka tidak akan secara resmi meminta kontribusi pihak swasta untuk Yunani, sehingga kita dapat melihat sentimen terhadap resiko mulai membaik,” kata Charles St-Arnaud, abalis forex pada Nomura Holdings Inc. di New York. “Apresiasi Dollar Australia minggu ini lebih disebabkan oleh faktor pertumbuhan di China yang nampaknya tidak melambat secepat yang telah diperkirakan.”
Produktivitas sektor industri China meningkat sebesar 13,3% pada bulan lalu, yang melampaui perkiraan para ekonom, disertai penjualan ritel yang naik 16,9%, menurut laporan biro statistik. Indeks harga konsumen juga mencatat kenaikan 5,5% persen, yang sesuai ekspektasi pasar.
Sementara perbankan telah diperintahkan untuk menyisihkan lebih banyak uang sebagai cadangan.
Namun penguatan mata uang negara Pasifik Selatan yang ber-yield lebih tinggi ini nampaknya masih akan terbatas seiring data AS yang lebih lemah dari perkiraan mendorong spekulasi bahwa pemulihan pada ekonomi terbesar di dunia itu tengah goyah.
Saat ini AUD/USD diperdagangkan pada kisaran $1.0615 atau sekitar 0,5% lebih tinggi dibandingkan harga pembukaan hari Jumat.

Saturday, June 18, 2011 2:08 pm

The Australian dollar stopped down 2 days in a row on Friday after German Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed to compromise and cooperate with the European Central Bank in seeking a new bailout package for Greece, which restore the demand for risky assets.
Aussie also has recorded the biggest weekly gain in a month against the U.S. currency after China was reported to increase industrial productivity.

“Germany has softened and they would not formally ask for a private party for Greece, so we can see the sentiment against the risk of getting better,” said Charles St-Arnaud, abalis forex at Nomura Holdings Inc. in New York. “The appreciation of the Australian dollar this week was driven more by growth factors in China that do not seem to slow down as quickly as anticipated.”

Productivity of China’s industrial sector increased by 13.3% in the last month, which exceeded expectations of economists, with retail sales rising 16.9%, according to the statistics bureau report. The consumer price index also recorded an increase of 5.5% percent, which according to market expectations.

While banks have been instructed to set aside more money as reserves.
However, strengthening the currency of South Pacific countries that had higher yield this still seems to be limited as U.S. data weaker than expected prompted speculation that the recovery of the world’s largest economy was being shaken.

Currently AUD / USD traded at $ 1.0615, or about 0.5% higher than the opening price on Friday.

Emas Menguat Ditopang Permintaan


Jumat, 17 Juni 2011 21:25 WIB


Emas naik lebih lanjut dekati titik tertinggi bulanan ditopang kuatnya permintaan fisik meskipun trend pelemahan global masih menghantui. Dilaporkan pembelian emas fisik kembali meningkat ditengah musim pernikahan di Asia, terutama India dan China. Peritel dan pengusaha perhiasan membeli Emas untuk memenuhi permintaan musiman yang akan tinggi sehingga mereduksi faktor lemahnya pemulihan ekonomi global. Faktor positif lain penopang emas adalah kekhawatiran utang Yunani yang telah didiskon pasar. Anggota Uni Eropa Urusan Moneter dan Ekonomi Olli Rehn mengatakan bahwa review mengenai Yunani dengan IMF akan dirilis pada Senin depan, dan pada hari itu juga Eurogroup diharapkan mampu mengambil keputusan untuk menggelontorkan pinjaman ke Yunani pada awal Juli. Meski komentar tersebut cukup melegakan pasar namun rencana bailout baru masih belum difinalisasi sehingga masih banyak ketidakpastian. Berdasarkan studi teknikal, bias intraday masih Bullish selama harga bergerak didalam bullish channel pada grafik H4. Bagaimanapun masih dibutuhkan penembusan konsisten diatas area 1541 untuk memicu momentum bullish lebih lanjut menguji level resisten kunci 1550. Di sisi bawahnya, hanya level support terdekat ada di area 1525 – 1530. Anjlok dibawah area tersebut dapat membawa harga ke zona netral karena arahnya menjadi tidak jelas.




Gold Gains Sustained Demand
Friday, June 17, 2011 21:25 AM


Gold rose further to approach the highest point of the monthly underpinned strong physical demand despite the weakening global trend is still haunting. Reported purchase of physical gold back up amid wedding season in Asia, especially India and China.

Retailers and employers to purchase gold jewelry to meet seasonal demand will be high so that the reduction factor of the weak global economic recovery.

Another positive factor supporting gold is the concern that Greece‘s debt market has been discounted. Members of the European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn said that the review of Greece with the IMF will be released next Monday, and on that day Eurogroup also expected to take decisions to lending poured into Greece in early July. Although the comment was quite a relief to the market but the new bailout plan is still not finalized, so there are still many uncertainties.

Based on the study of technical, intraday bias remains bullish as long as the price moves in the bullish channel on H4 charts. However still required penetration is consistent over the area in 1541 to trigger further bullish momentum to test key resistance level of 1550.

On the bottom side, only the closest support level is in the area from 1525 to 1530. Fell below that area could bring the price into the neutral zone because its direction is unclear.

Gagal Mengatasi Krisis Eropa

Euro Gagal Atasi Krisis Hutang Yunani

Euro melemah secara luas pada hari Rabu setelah para menteri zona Euro gagal mencapai kesepakatan mengenai cata mengatasi krisis hutang Yunani, ditambah peringatan Moody’s atas potensin downgrade pada bank-bank besar Perancis. Meningkatnyab keengganan investor terhadap aset beresiko yang dipicu krisis hutang terus menekan euro turun sebanyak 1,5% pada perdagangan hari Rabu.

Analis mengatakan bahwa aksi mogok nasional di Yunani untuk menentang langkah penghematan juga terus menekan Euro bergerak lebih rendah,
sedangkan pembahasan yang sedang berlangsung mengenai rencana bantuan hutang kian memperkuat kemungkinan penyebaran masalah hutang ke negara
zona Euro lainnya. Pertemuan para menteri keuangan zona Euro pada hari Selasa lalu telah gagal untuk mencapai kesepakatan tentang bagaimana keterlibatan investor swasta pemegang obligasi Yunani dalam pembiayaan paket bailout baru. Keprihatinan investor diperburuk oleh peringatan dari lembaga pemeringkat Moody’s yang mengatakan tengah meninjau ulang peringkat BNP Paribas SA, bank terbesar Perancis, serta Societe Generale SA dan Credit Agricole SAn terkait eksposur mereka terhadap hutang Yunani.

Klaim Pengangguran Mengecewakan Pound

Sterling anjlok di hari Rabu pasca data tenaga kerja Inggris menunjukkan jumlah klaim pengangguran Inggris bertambah sebanyak 19,600 di bulan Mei, dua kali lipat perkiraan kenaikan sebesar 7,000 dan kenaikan terbesar sejak Juli 2009, sementara pertumbuhan upah melambat menguatkan pandangan suku bunga akan tetap bertahan di tahun 2011.

Bagaimanapun, disaat bersamaan ILO juga merilis angka tingkat pengangguran yang sesuai ekspektasi masih bertahan pada 7,7% dalam periode Februari-April, turun dari 7,9% yang tercatat dalam periode November-Januari. “Para pembuat kebijakan harus dapat menerima kenyataan bahwa laju inflasi pada upah masih terkendali. Dan dengan data seperti itu, maka Bank of England nampaknya benar-benar tidak perlu menaikkan suku bunga dalam waktu dekat,” kata Alan Clarke, ekonom Scotia Capital.

Apresiasi Franc Akan Desak SNB Pertahankan Suku Bunga.

Lonjakan Franc Swiss ke level rekor mungkin akan memaksa presiden bank sentral Philipp Hildebrand untuk tetap mempertahankan suku bunga mendekati nol hingga kuartal berikutnya. Swissy telah mencatat kenaikan sebesar 3,5% pada bulan lalu, yang mendorong para ekonom dari Bank of America Merrill Lynch, UBS AG dan Julius Baer Group Ltd untuk menggeser ekspektasi mereka terhadap kenaikan suku bunga menjadi pada pertemuan bulan September.
Berdasarkan hasil survey terhadap 26 ekonom, Swiss National Bank diperkirakan akan mempertahankan suku bunga acuan tidak berubah pada 0,25% dalam
pertemuan hari Kamis. Para pembuat kebijakan SNB khawatir jika apresiasi mata uang yang berlebihan akan melukai eksportir seperti produsen jam Swatch Group AG dengan tingginya tekanan harga bahan bakar. Sementara bank-bank sentral mulai dari Frankfurt hingga ke Stockholm telah mulai memperketat kendali moneter, Hildebrand justru menganggap Franc sebagai  sebuah “beban” dan memperkirakan pertumbuhan ekonomi akan melemah.


Failed to Overcome Debt Crisis Euro Greece

The euro fell broadly on Wednesday after the euro zone ministers failed to reach agreement on cata overcome the debt crisis of Greece, plus warnings on potensin Moody’s downgrade of large banks in France. Meningkatnyab investor aversion to risky assets that triggered the debt crisis continues to push the euro down as much as 1.5% in trading Wednesday.

Analysts said that a national strike in Greece to oppose austerity measures also continue to push the Euro to move lower, while the ongoing discussion about increasing debt relief plan to strengthen the possibility of distributing debt issues to other euro zone countries. Meeting of euro zone finance ministers on Tuesday failed to reach agreement on how the involvement of private investors bondholders Greece in the financing of new bailout package. Investor concerns are exacerbated by a warning from Moody’s rating agency that said it is reviewing ratings BNP Paribas SA, France’s largest bank, and Societe Generale SA and Credit Agricole SAN their exposure to debt related to Greece.

Unemployment Claims Disappointing Pound

Sterling tumbled on Wednesday after data showed the number of UK workforce jobless claims increased by 19.600 in the UK in May, double the estimated increase of 7.000 and the biggest gain since July 2009, while wage growth slowed reinforce the view interest rates will persist in 2011 .

However, at the same time the ILO has also released the corresponding unemployment rate expectations remained at 7.7% in February-April period, down from 7.9% recorded in the period from November to January. “Policy makers should be able to accept the fact that the rate of inflation on wages are still under control. And with such data, the Bank of England seems to really do not need to raise interest rates anytime soon, “said Alan Clarke, economist at Scotia Capital.

Appreciation Franc Will Urge Preserve SNB Interest Rate.

Swiss franc surges to record levels may force the central bank president Philipp Hildebrand to keep interest rates near zero until the next quarter. Swissy has recorded an increase of 3.5% last month, prompting economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, UBS AG and Julius Baer Group Ltd. to shift their expectations of higher interest rates to be at a meeting in September.
Based on the results of a survey of 26 economists, the Swiss National Bank expected to keep benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.25% in Thursday’s meeting. SNB policy makers worried that excessive currency appreciation would hurt exporters such as manufacturers of Swatch Group AG by the high pressure fuel prices. While central banks from Frankfurt to Stockholm has begun to tighten monetary control, Hildebrand actually considers franc as a “burden” and predicted economic growth would weaken.

Forex News Update


Forex news updateEuro Pulih Ditengah Debat Hutang Yunani
Euro menguat terhadap Dollar AS pada hari Senin, pulih dari penurunan pada awal sesi menyusul aksi short-covering para pedagang memberikan sedikit ruang bagi Euro. Namun perseteruan di antara para pembuat kebijakan masih membatasi gain euro. Para petinggi di Eropa nampaknya masih belum mencapai kesepakatan mengenai rencana keterlibatan investor swasta dalam restrukturisasi hutang Yunani, yang terus diserukan oleh Jerman, meskipun ECB telah  memperingatkan akan potensi gejolak pasar. Sementara investor mulai memangkas peluang kenaikan kembali suku bunga dalam beberapa bulan ke depan, bahkan setelah presiden ECB Jean-Claude Trichet sensinyalkan kemungkinan adanya kenaikan suku bunga pada bulan Juli, mengingat ECB masih mempertahankan proyeksi inflasi 2012 tidak berubah. Teppei Ino, analis mata uang pada Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ di Tokyo, memperkirakan Euro dapat terjatuh kembali ke posisi rendah bulan Mei di $1.3968 seiring krisis hutang zona Euro dan berkurangnya prospek kenaikan suku bunga menjadi fokus pasar.
Poundsterling Optimis Jelang CPI Inggris
Sterling menguat terhadap Dollar AS dan menyentuh level tinggi dalam lebih dari sepekan terhadap euro pada hari Senin, dipicu oleh kecemasan hutang zona Eropa dan antisipasi investor terhadap data inflasi hari Selasa yang diperkirakan menunjukkan kenaikan, kendati kecemasan rapuhnya perekonomian Inggris membuat sterling rentan. Analis teknikal mengatakan pergerakan konstan di bawah MA100 pada $1.6246 akan membawa sterling menuju $1.6055 dan
kemudian $1.6000 yang merupakan MA 200.

CPI tahunan diperkirakan tetap pada 4,5% pada bulan Mei. Hasil rilis di atas level tersebut mungkin akan memberikan dorongan bagi Cable, meskipun menurut analis tidak akan bertahan lama kecuali para investor yakin jika BoE akan merespon dengan menaikkan suku bunga. “Kenaikan inflasi akan mendorong Sterling naik, tapi mungkin hanya akan berumur pendek,” kata Lee McDarby, kepala dealing pada Investec. “Pasar perlu melihat kemajuan pada data sebelum ada pembicaraan mengenai kenaikan tingkat suku bunga.” Sentimen Sterling juga berpotensi terpukul pekan ini seiring data tenaga kerja hari Rabu dan penjualan ritel di hari Kamis dapat menambah kecemasan goyahnya ekonomi Inggris.

Franc Kian Menarik Sebagai Safe-Haven
Franc Swiss menguat terhadap hampir semua mata uang utama setelah belum adanya kesepakatan mengenai bantuan finansial untuk Yunani memicu investor beralih ke aset paling aman di Eropa, dengan yield obligasi Portugal dan Irlandia yang naik menuju rekor tinggi. Sementara SNB diperkirakan akan memutuskan menahan tingkat suku bunga di 0.25% pada pertemuan tanggal 16 Juni mendatang serta tidak mensinyalkan melakukan intervensi untuk membatasi penguatan franc.
“Investor melirik Franc Swiss lebih karena status safe haven-nya,” kata Elizabeth Gregory, analis pasar pada Swissquote Bank SA di Jenewa. “Ketidakpastian masih terus menyelimuti zona Euro, sementara prospek pertumbuhan Swiss nampak cerah. Maka tren penguatan Franc Swiss akan berlanjut.” Pejabat di Eropa menemui jalan buntu mengenai keterlibatan investor swasta dalam restrukturisasi hutang Yunani.

*****English Version*****

Euro Recovers Amid Debate Greek Debt

The euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Monday, recovering from the decline at the beginning of the session following the action of short-covering by traders give little room for the Euro. But the feud between the policy makers are still limiting the gain euros. European officials has not yet reached agreement on the involvement of private investors plan to restructure debt in Greece, which kept called for by Germany, although the ECB has warned of the potential market turmoil. Meanwhile, investors began to increase in opportunities to cut interest rates again in coming months, even after ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet sensinyalkan possibility of a rate hike in July, given the ECB still retains the 2012 inflation projection unchanged. Teppei Ino, currency analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in Tokyo, estimates that Euro could fall back to a lower position in May at $ 1.3968 as the Euro zone and the debt crisis reduced
the prospect of higher interest rates become the focus of the market.

Optimistic About Coming to the UK pound sterling CPI

Sterling strengthened against the U.S. dollar and touched a high level in more than a week against the euro on Monday, sparked by fears the euro zone debt and investors’ anticipation of Tuesday’s inflation data are expected to show an increase, despite concerns the fragility of the British economy making sterling vulnerable. Technical analysts say the movement is constant under MA100 at $ 1.6246 would bring sterling to $ 1.6055 and
then $ 1.6000 which is the MA 200.
The annual CPI is expected to remain at 4.5% in May. Results release above that level would probably give a boost for Cable, although according to analysts will not last long unless the investors believe that if the BoE will respond by raising interest rates. “The increase in inflation would push Sterling rose, but may only be short-lived,” said Lee McDarby, head of dealing at Investec. “The market needs to see progress on the data before there is talk about rising interest rates.” Sterling sentiment also has the potential to hit this week as the employment data on Wednesday and retail sales on Thursday to increase the anxiety fragile UK economy.

Franc increasingly interesting as the Safe-Haven

Swiss franc strengthened against most major currencies after the lack of agreement on financial aid to Greece triggered investors to switch to the safest assets in Europe, with Portugal and Ireland bond yield which rose to a record high. While the SNB is expected to decide to hold interest rates at 0.25% at the next meeting June 16 and not signaling to intervene to limit the strengthening of franc.
“Investors Swiss Franc glanced over because its safe haven status,” says Elizabeth Gregory, analyst market in Swissquote Bank SA in Geneva. “Uncertainty continues surrounding the Euro zone, while Switzerland‘s growth prospects seem bright. And the Swiss franc strengthened the trend will continue. “Officials at the European impasse regarding the involvement of private investors in the debt restructuring Greece.

Koreksi Euro Terbatasi Prospek Suku Bunga

Selasa, 07 Juni 2011 – 09:36 WIB
Koreksi Euro Terbatasi Prospek Suku Bunga

Euro sempat mengalami koreksi lemah setelah salah satu pejabat Jerman menyebutkan bailout kedua Yunani masih belum pasti, namun koreksi penurunan akhirnya dibatasi oleh sentimen positif terhadap prosek suku bunga zona Eropa.

Pada hari Jumat silam petinggi zona Eropa dikabarkan selangkah lebih maju menuju bailout baru untuk Yunani yang menurut media Jerman bisa mencapai lebih dari €100 milyar dan mendorong euro ke level tinggi 1 bulan di $1.4657.
Meskipun demikian, pasar tetap berasumsi Yunani akan memperoleh waktu lebih panjang dalam membayar hutangnya sembari menantikan Presiden ECB Jean-Claude Trichet yang akan mensinyalkan kenaikan suku bunga di bulan Juli pada hari Kamis lusa.
Jika Trichet kembali menggunakan frase “waspada tinggi” dalam menanggapi tekanan inflasi, ini merupakan petunjuk adanya kenaikan suku bunga pada bulan Juli.


Tuesday, June 7, 2011 – 9:36 pm
Corrections constrained Euro Interest Rate Outlook

The euro had experienced weak correction after German officials said one of the two Greek bailout still not sure, but ultimately limited by correction decreased the positive sentiment towards prosek eurozone interest rates.

On Friday the euro zone officials reportedly set a step forward towards a new bailout for Greece which, according to German media could reach more than € 100 billion and pushed the euro to as low as 1-month high at $ 1.4657.

Nevertheless, the market still assumes Greece will have a longer time in paying its debts while waiting for ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet to be signaling higher interest rates in July on Thursday after tomorrow.

If Trichet re-using the phrase “high alert” in response to inflationary pressures, this is an indication of higher interest rates in July.

Posted with WordPress for BlackBerry.

Bailout Yunani, Payrolls AS Picu EUR Bidik $1.4670

Senin, 06 Juni 2011 11:12 WIB


Mata uang tunggal Euro terus bertahan di kisaran kuatnya dalam 1-bulan terhadap USD di hari Senin setelah akhir pekan lalu tim “troika” (Uni Eropa, European Central Bank dan IMF) sepakat untuk memberi bantuan internasional berikutnya bagi negara Yunani di awal bulan Juli.
Euro turut makin perkasa setelah dollar A.S terpukul oleh buruknya angka tenaga kerja (Non-farm payrolls/NFP) yang juga menghantarkan tingkat pengangguran meningkat tipis menjadi 9,1% dari sebelumnya 9,0%.

“Pasar tenaga kerja masih sangat lemah dan jika kondisinya tetap seperti ini, Federal Reserve mungkin tidak akan menaikkan suku bunga hingga dalam 12 bulan mendatang”, ungkap Kathy Lien, direktur riset valas pada GFT.

“Angka tenaga kerja AS yang lemah akan memberikan dukungan positif untuk EUR/USD belum lagi investor terus disemangati bahwa ECB masih memiliki rencana untuk menaikkan suku bunga pada musim panas ini,” imbuhnya.

Secara teknikal resisten terdekat berikutnya untuk EUR berada di $1.4670 kemudian $1.4700. Sementara bila EUR sanggup mendobrak lagi level $1.4620, pergerakan akan sedikit bearish menuju support terdekat di level $1.4580 dan $1.4520


Greece bailout, U.S. payrolls Trigger Shutter $ 1.4670 EUR

Monday, June 6, 2011 11:12 pm


Euro single currency continues to survive in the strong range in 1-month high against the USD on Monday after last weekend’s team “troika” (the European Union, the European Central Bank and the IMF) have agreed to give international aid next to the Greek state at the beginning of the month July.
The euro also more powerful after the U.S. dollar hit by poor rates of labor (Non-farm payrolls / NFP), which also delivers the unemployment rate increased slightly to 9.1% from 9.0% previously.

“The labor market is still very weak and if the conditions stay like this, the Federal Reserve might not raise interest rates until the coming 12 months, ” said Kathy Lien, director of currency research at GFT.

“The number of weak U.S. labor force will provide positive support for the EUR / USD continues encouraged investors not to mention that the ECB still has plans to raise interest rates this summer,” he added.

The next nearest technical resistance for the EUR was at $ 1.4670 and $ 1.4700. Meanwhile, when the EUR could break down again at $ 1.4620, the movement will be slightly bearish toward the nearest support level of $ 1.4580 and $ 1.4520

Kesuksesan Yunani Bantu Reli Euro

Jumat, 03 Juni 2011 – 22:07 WIB

Kesuksesan Yunani Bantu Reli Euro

Euro raih level tinggi 1 minggu terhadap dollar setelah Athena katakan inspeksi Uni Eropa/IMF terhadap Yunani berakhir positif. Meski, pasar nantikan bailout kedua untuk Yunani, tapi Kementrian Keuangan tidak sebutkan perjanjian apapun akan bantuan lebih lanjut.

“Diskusi pemerintah Yunani dengan perwakilan dari Komisi Eropa, ECB, dan IMF hasilkan kesimpulan yang positif,” ungkap Kementrian Keuangan. Uni Eropa, ECB, dan IMF akan publikasi hasil pemeriksaan  terhadap implementasi bailout €110 milyar tahun lalu. Perdana Menteri George Papandreou juga akan bertemu dengan Jean-Claude Juncker, ketua kelompok menteri keuangan zona-euro, untuk sampaikan rencana anggaran jangka menengah. Yunani mungkin ajukan pemotongan anggaran belanja lebih dalam, kebijakan yang dapat tingkatkan pendapatan, dan menjual aset negara demi bujuk Uni Eropa dan IMF untuk berikan pinjaman darurat tambahan untuk waktu yang lama.

Sementara itu, euro lanjutkan reli setelah data malam ini tunjukkan lambatnya pemulihan sektor tenaga kerja AS. Euro tengah uji resisten 1.4566, level Fibonacci 61.8% dari kejatuhan 4 Mei hingga 23 Mei; dimana penutupan harian di atas level tersebut dapat pacu kenaikan hingga 1.4647, harga tertinggi 21 April.

Posted with WordPress for BlackBerry.

Kesuksesan Yunani Bantu Reli Euro

Jumat, 03 Juni 2011 22:07 WIB
Euro raih level tinggi 1 minggu terhadap dollar setelah Athena katakan inspeksi Uni Eropa/IMF terhadap Yunani berakhir positif. Meski, pasar nantikan bailout kedua untuk Yunani, tapi Kementrian Keuangan tidak sebutkan perjanjian apapun akan bantuan lebih lanjut.

“Diskusi pemerintah Yunani dengan perwakilan dari Komisi Eropa, ECB, dan IMF hasilkan kesimpulan yang positif,” ungkap Kementrian Keuangan. Uni Eropa, ECB, dan IMF akan publikasi hasil pemeriksaan  terhadap implementasi bailout €110 milyar tahun lalu. Perdana Menteri George Papandreou juga akan bertemu dengan Jean-Claude Juncker, ketua kelompok menteri keuangan zona-euro, untuk sampaikan rencana anggaran jangka menengah. Yunani mungkin ajukan pemotongan anggaran belanja lebih dalam, kebijakan yang dapat tingkatkan pendapatan, dan menjual aset negara demi bujuk Uni Eropa dan IMF untuk berikan pinjaman darurat tambahan untuk waktu yang lama.

Sementara itu, euro lanjutkan reli setelah data malam ini tunjukkan lambatnya pemulihan sektor tenaga kerja AS. Euro tengah uji resisten 1.4566, level Fibonacci 61.8% dari kejatuhan 4 Mei hingga 23 Mei; dimana penutupan harian di atas level tersebut dapat pacu kenaikan hingga 1.4647, harga tertinggi 21 April. (fir)

ECB Mungkin Setujui Rollover Hutang Yunani

Kamis, 02 Juni 2011 – 18:11 WIB

ECB Mungkin Setujui Rollover Hutang Yunani

European Central Bank  mungkin dukung rencana yang dorong investor untuk membeli obligasi Yunani baru untuk gantikan surat utang yang telah jatuh tempo, menurut nara sumber Bloomberg. Ini tentunya tunjukkan pelunakan keengganan ECB atas rencana restrukturisasi demi selesaikan krisis utang. ECB masih kaji rencana tersebut karna dapat ringankan beban Yunani tanpa ajukan default. ECB masih tentang rencana perpanjangan waktu pembayaran obligasi yang jatuh tempo.

ECB tentang setiap kebijakan yang dapat dikategorikan sebagai default karena takut bisa picu kekacauan dalam sistem perbankan Eropa. Komisaris Eropa, Olli Rehn, kemarin utarakan masih kaji rencana rollover dan petinggi ECB Juergen Stark katakan rencana tersebut tidak masuk kategori default. Petinggi Eropa kini tengah bujuk investor untuk terima rencana rollover utang yang jatuh tempo dengan cara berikan status khusus, pembayaran kupon lebih tinggi, atau agunan.

Sementara itu, euro menguat di sesi London, sentuh 1.4485, akibat optimisme akan selesainya krisis utang zona-euro dan komitmen Kanselir Merkel untuk tetap dukung euro.

Posted with WordPress for BlackBerry.

EU Berusaha Rampungkan Bailout Kedua Untuk Yunani

Selasa, 31 Mei 2011 – 04:47 WIB

EU Berusaha Rampungkan Bailout Kedua Untuk Yunani

Uni Eropa berlomba untuk merampungkan pake bailout kedua untuk Yunani yang pinjamannya akan dirilis bulan depan serta menghidnarkan resiko kebangkrutan negara zona Eropa, menurut pejabat Uni Eropa pada hari Senin. “Saya cukup optimis,” ucap kepala menteri keuangan zona Eropa, Jean-Claude Juncker, setelah berdiskusi dengan Presiden Perancis Nicolas Sarkozy. Restrukturisasi total hutang Yunani bukanlah piliha, ucapnya, membuka peluang kemungkinan untuk melibatkan sektor swasta, seperti advokasi dari Sarkozy pekan lalu.

Sementara partai oposisi konservatif Yunani meminta pemangkasan pajak sebagai syarat konsensus dengan pemerintahan Sosialis untuk pengetatan kebijakan lanjutan, yang dikatakan oleh Brussels sangat penting untuk menjamin dikucurkannya bailout kedua.

Posted with WordPress for BlackBerry.

Commodity Update: Oil Bearish Trend

Minyak Konsolidasi, Trend Bearish

Minyak Nymex pengiriman bulan Juli konsolidasi setelah naik $1.17 menjadi $100.10/barrel, menurut analisa teknikal Dow Jones. Grafik harian dengan menggunakan indikator MACD menunjukkan trend bearish, namun indikator stochastic menunjukkan bullish dan berada di level oversold. Resistance di $100.42 (level tinggi hari Jumat); jika berhasil menembus level ini, minyak berpeluang untuk naik ke $100.99 (level tinggi hari Rabu), lalu ke $104.60 (level tinggi 11 Mei) dan $105.31 (kisaran MA 55-day). Support di $96.35 (level rendah hari Jumat); lalu $95.02 (level rendah hari Selasa), kemudian $94.63 (level rendah 6 Mei) dan $92.84 (level pada 31 Januari).
Minyak kontrak Juli turun $1.00 menjadi $99.10/barrel di Globex.

Krisis Eropa untungkan prospek harga emas

Nilai kontrak emas diperkirakan terus menguat guna melanjutkan peningkatan mingguan pertamanya dalam 3 pekan terakhir. Kekhawatiran terhadap utang sejumlah negara di Eropa menaikkan permintaan logam mulia itu sebagai pengaman aset. Harga emas pengiriman dalam waktu dekat naik 0,5% menjadi US$1.519,35/troy ounce. Kontrak emas diperdangkan naik 1,2% sepanjang pekan lalu. Kontrak emas pengiriman Juni di bursa New York juga menguat 0,7% menjadi US$1.519/troy ounce. “Inevstor membeli aset pengaman nilai setelah Fitch Ratings menurunkan peringkat utang Yunani dan Standard & Poor’s menempatkan Italia ke outlook yang negatif. Hal ini memperkuat kurs dolar AS,” kata Head of Commodity Research ANZ Banking Group Ltd Mark Pervan dalam laporannya hari ini. S&P pekan lalu menurunkan prospek kredit Italia ke negatif dari posisi stabil dengan pertimbangan risiko pelambatan laju ekonomi dan kesulitan pemangkasan utang pemerintah. Fitch juga memangkas peringkat utang Yunani. Perkembangan itu menyebabkan euro melemah 0,5% terhadap dolar AS.

Posted with WordPress for BlackBerry.

Market Review AS & Eropa

Market Review AS & Eropa:

Dollar melemah terhadap sejumlah mata uang didominasi oleh euro, yang menguat kendati kepala IMF ditangkap dengan tuduhan pelecehan seksual.  Harga emas sedikit turun, menjadi $1,490.30. Permasalahan di zona Eropa juga turut menekan harga minyak untuk turun lebih dari $2. Data ekonomi hari ini adalah minutes dari RBA, CPI Inggris, laporan inflasi BoE, ZEW economic sentiment Jerman dan Zona Eropa, building permits, housing starts, capacity utilization rate, dan industrial production dari AS. Juga earnings dari Home Depot, Wal-Mart, dan Dell. Nikkei diperkirakan akan bergerak dalam kisaran 9,460 – 9,580.

EUR/USD closing 1.4156, high 1.4244, low 1.4046, XAUUSD C:1,490.30, H: 1,504.35, L:1,487.65 CO-LS C: 97.00, H: 99.65, L: 96.83. Dow C: 12,509, H: 12,605, L:12,495.

Posted with WordPress for BlackBerry.

Menguatnya Dollar Memicu Penurunan Komoditi Emas, Minyak dan Perak


Minyak Turun Mendekati 1% Dibawah $99; Dollar AS

Kontrak minyak mentah As turun mendekati 1% hari Senin, dibawah $99 per barel, menghapus penguatan hari Jumat seiring menguatnya Dollar terhadap Euro ditengah kekhawatiran masalah hutang Yunani. Kontrak minyak mentah NYMEX untuk bulan Juni diperdagangkan turun 94 sen ke sekitar $98.71 per barel, di perdagangan elektronik Globex, setelah merosot lebih dari 1 dollar di level $98/50 sebelumnya. Minggu lalu minyak mentah naik $2.47 atau 2.5%, mendapat kepulihan ringan dari rekor $16.75 dalam kejatuhan mingguan di 6 Mei.

Emas-Perak Bergerak Turun

Emas dan perak bergerak turun hari Senin, seiring dollar yang bertahan stabil terkait kekhawatiran hutang Eropa sebelum para menteri keuangan Eropa akan membahas bantuan untuk Portugal. Spot emas bergerak turun 0.1% ke level $1,491.45 per ons, setelah menutup minggu lalu nyaris flat. Kontrak emas AS juga turun 0.1% ke $1,492. Spot emas turun 0.3% ke $35.17, melanjutkan kejatuhan yang mendekati 1% minggu lali. Perak AS menguat 0.6% ke level $35.21.

Logam mulia dalam tekanan akibat menguatnya dollar AS, yang terangkat oleh data inflasi AS dan kejatuhan Euro ke rendahnya 6 minggu terhadap dollar AS.

Posted with WordPress for BlackBerry.

Komoditi Masih Dibayangi Koreksi


 Minyak Bertahan Turun $5, Dekat $98

 Harga minyak mentah turun lebih dari 4% kemarin setelah adanya kenaikan persediaan bensin ditengah melambatnya permintaan membawa harga bergerak turun, memicu penghentian perdagangan selama 5 menit dan memicu aksi jual komoditi minggu ini. Perdagangan minyak mentah dan produk lainnya dihentikan setelah kontrak bahan bakar bensin turun 2 sen, walau terbatas, memicu penghentian selama 5 menit guna meredam gerakan pasar. Kejadian ini adalah yang pertama kali terjadi sejak krisis keuangan yang terjadi di bulan September 2008. Bahan bakar bensin turun lebih jauh setelah perdagangan dilanjutkan, menembus level teknikal. Total volume mencapai rekor 240.000 lot. Harga minyak mentah AS turun ke sekitar $98 per barel, setelah menyentuh serendahnya di level $97.50 per barel.


 Mengapa Komoditas Kembali Anjlok?

 Euro kembali tertekan turun dan komoditas kembali anjlok. Krisis hutang Yunani dan kecemasan tingginya inflasi di Polandia dan Inggris telah meningkatkan kecemasan mengenai perekonomian zona Eropa, mengakibatkan aksi jual besar-besaran pada euro dan melambungkan dollar. Ini seperti dejavu atas penurunan tajam yang terjadi pekan lalu. Komoditas kembali terkoreksi. Minyak terhampar di bawah $100, perak turun sebanyak $3, timah berada pada level terendah sejak Desember silam. Trader sektor komoditas telah mengalihkan perhatiannya dari banjir yang terjadi di AS menjadi kecemasan inflasi di Eropa dan Cina. Kendati ada penurunan pada tingkat inflasi konsumen di Cina, masih ada kecemasan bahwa Cina akan menaikkan tingkat suku bunga untuk melambatkan pertumbuhan dan tingkat permintaan dari negara berkembang untuk energi dan komoditas lainnya akan tertekan turun. Hari ini, potensi dampak banjie di bagian Midwest pada produksi energi tidak begitu mencemaskan seiring fakta bahwa tingkat permintaan bensin di AS berkurang.

Market Review Eropa

Market Review Eropa :

Euro menguat, namun kenaikan terhadang oleh masalah utang Yunani. Sterling tidak banyak berubah, namun dibayangi oleh kecemasan outlook pertumbuhan setelah Asosiasi Industri Inggris pangkas prediksi pertumbuhan Inggris. Emas dan Minyak menguat, didukung oleh pelemahan dollar dan memburuknya kerusuhan di Afrika Utara. Indeks futures AS naik akibat optimisme berlanjutnya pemulihan ekonomi paska bagusnya data tenaga kerja AS pada akhir pekan.

Posted with WordPress for BlackBerry.

Market Outlook

Lagi, Emas Ukir Rekor Tinggi Baru!

Harga emas kembali menunjukkan keperkasaannya dengan kembali mengukir rekor tertinggi baru dalam sejarah di hari Senin pada level $1488.50/troy ounce. Penguatan ini terutama terkait faktor-faktor kombinasi yaitu pelemahan dollar AS, kecemasan inflasi dan merebaknya kembali kekhawatiran terhadap masalah krisis hutang di negara-negara zona Euro. Isu krisis hutang ini makin diperparah setelah ada berita penurunan peringkat kredit negara Irlandia oleh pihak Moody’s menjadi satu tingkat di atas level ‘junk’. Namun faktor utama yang membuat harga emas rebound adalah kakhawatiran terhadap inflasi dunia seperti naiknya angka inflasi produsen Amerika (PPI A.S) dan angka inflasi negara China yang Jumat lalu dirilis di atas ekspektasi. Pada sesi pagi harga spot emas tercatat $1485.70/troy ounce setelah sempat menyentuh rekor tinggi $1488.50/troy ounce. (By

Minyak Mentah Turun ke $109 Setelah Menguat 3 Minggu

Kontrak minyak mentah AS bergerak melemah hari Senin menuju $109/barel, setelah menguat selama 3 minggu, walaupun komentar dari Arab Saudi memberikan konfirmasi pemangkasan produksi guna melawan persediaan yang melimpah di pasar. Kontrak minyak mentah untuk bulan Mei, yang berakhir hari Selasa, turun 47 sen pada $109.19/barel, setelah bertahan naik $1.55 di level $109.66/barel di hari Jumat. Kontrak tersebut telah turun dari 11 April pada puncak hariannya di $113.46, level tertingginya sejak September 2008, ditengah ekspektasi konflik di Lybia yang memperpanjang gangguan persediaan dari OPEC. (By

Posted with WordPress for BlackBerry.


Dollar merana 25 Mar 2011

Dollar tertahan dekat level terendah dalam 15 bulan terakhir terhadap rivalnya, di tengah penguatan saham yang mengindikasikan peningkatan risk appetite. Dollar melemah terhadap euro dan aussie, stabil terhadap franc dan yen, namun menguat terhadap sterling. Data ekonomi yang mengecewakan dan kenaikan harga minyak menjadi di antara faktor yang melemahkan dollar. Semalam dilaporkan initial jobless claims hanya turun sedikit, dan durable goods orders turun 0,9%. Melawan prediksi naik 1,2%. Kenaikan harga minyak karena konflik Timur Tengah dapat mendorong inflasi, semakin mengurangi daya tarik dollar sebagai safe haven. Minyak menjadi salah satu faktor di balik kejatuhan dollar. Instabilitas di Timur Tengah membuat investor resah dengan dampak gejolak minyak. Di saat inflasi terancam naik, the Fed tidak terindikasi berniat mengubah kebijakan super longgarnya. Hal ini semakin mengurangi daya tarik greenback. Indeks dollar kini bergerak di kisaran 75. Meski begitu, dollar berpeluang rebound karena penguatan beberapa rivalnya yang sudah cukup tajam. Beberapa data ekonomi AS mungkin bisa membantu dollar. Salah satunya adalah revisi PDB AS kuartal keempat. PDB periode itu kemungkinan direvisi menjadi 3,0% dari 2,8%. Namun, data itu tidak akan banyak membantu bila pejabat the Fed yang berpidato malam nanti mempertegas kebijakan longgar untuk waktu yang masih lama.


Sementara itu Euro perkasa, dengan tetap menguat meski berita buruk datang menerjangnya. Setelah pengunduran diri Perdana Menteri Portugal karena Parlemen gagal menyepakati RAPBN yang diajukannya, semakin besar kemungkinan negara itu meminta bailout. Hal ini sempat menekan euro. Euro juga tertekan setelah S & P dan Fitch ratings menurunkan peringkat utang Portugal. Selain itu Moody’s Investor Service menurunkan peringkat beberapa bank Spanyol. Namun, ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga ECB menjadi faktor yang ternyata tidak hanya menopangnya, tapi memberi pengaruh yang lebih kuat dari berita negatif di atas. Euro juga diangkat oleh ekspektasi positif pasar mengenai hasil pertemuan Uni Eropa hari ini. Pasar optimis pemimpin Eropa mampu mengatasi krisis politik dan utang Portugal.
Beberapa data Jerman seperti indeks sentimen konsumen hasil survei GfK dan sentimen bisnis hasil survei Ifo bisa mempengaruhi pergerakan euro. Indeks GfK untuk April diperkirakan turun ke 5,8 dari 6,0 di Maret. Sedangkan indeks Ifo diperkirakan turun ke 110,5 di Maret dari 111,2 di Februari.

Aussie menjadi mata uang yang juga menguat tajam terhadap dollar. Penguatan aussie ke level tertinggi dalam 29 tahun terakhir tidak lepas dari kenaikan harga komoditas seperti minyak dan emas. Namun, penguatan tajam selama 6 sesi terakhir, membuka kemungkinan aussie koreksi. Penurunan komoditas bisa memperbesar kemungkinan  koreksi itu.


Euro uji $1,42

Euro berhasil menembus level tertinggi dalam empat bulan terakhir karena ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga ECB bulan depan.  Euro juga melesat berkat berkurangnya kecemasan mengenai krisis utang Eropa, menyusul kesepakatan yang dicapai para pemimpin zona euro dan hasil lelang surat utang Spanyol yang sukses.  Para pemimpin zona euro telah menyepakati beberapa elemen untuk mengatasi krisis utang, salah satunya menambah dana talangan. Spanyol berhasil meraup 4 miliar euro dari hasil lelang itu. Euro juga masih didukung oleh ekspektasi ECB akan menaikkan suku bunganya bulan depan. Faktor lain yang mengangkat euro surutnya aksi risk aversion yang sempat mencuat pasca gempa Jepang. Langkah G-7 yang melakukan intervensi terkoordinasi atas yen juga memberikan sentimen positif. Grup negara maju itu melakukan intervensi bersama untuk pertama kalinya dalam satu dekade terakhir sebagai bentuk solidaritas untuk Jepang.


Euro kini sedang menguji level $1,42. Peluang terbuka untuk menembus level tersebut, di tengah membaiknya sentimen pasar. Absennya even dari Eropa dapat menghambat lajunya. Namun,  ekspektasi kenaikan rate ECB tetap menjadi faktor yang menopang euro.  Salah satu even penting minggu ini adalah pertemuan Uni Eropa pada 24-25 Maret. Dalam pertemuan itu, para pemimpin Eropa akan membahas kembali penyelesaian krisis utang. Pasar punya ekspektasi positif mengenai pertemuan itu. Namun, masih ada perdebatan di antara anggota yang dapat membuat diskusi alot.


Sementara itu, Yen defensive dalam perdagangan di Asia hari ini, meski momentum jual sudah surut. Ini bisa menjadi indikasi langkah tambahan diperlukan untuk meredam penguatan yen setelah G-7 melakukan intervensi bersama. Para analis mengatakan langkah G-7 sepertinya hanya upaya untuk mengurangi volatilitas pasar bukannya mengubah tren penguatan yen. Pasar Jepang ditutup hari ini, mengurangi aktivitas perdagangan. Salah satu data terjadwal hari ini adalah exisiting home sales AS, yang diperkirakan akan menunjukkan penurunan sebesar 4,7% di Februari. Angka yang lebih buruk dari prediksi bisa membuat dollar terkoreksi, termasuk terhadap yen.