Becoming Sophisticated About Risk

Posts tagged “Euro

Technical Outlook 28 Januari 2014


·     EUR/USD. Bias masih bearish dalam jangka pendek, namun dibutuhkan break di bawah zona 1.3625-1.3600 guna memicu momentum bearish lebih lanjut menuju area 1.3545. Sebaliknya, resisten terdekat dapat dijumpai di 1.3750. Penembusan yang konsisten terhadap level tersebut akan memicu momentum bullish lanjutan mengincar target area 1.3790 atau bahkan lebih tinggi.

·       GBP/USD. Bias tetap bearish dalam jangka pendek seiring pasangan mata uang ini menguji area 1.6475, yang berpotensi memicu tekanan bearish lebih lanjut menuju target 1.6420. Hanya break di atas area 1.6600 yang dapat mengubah bias intraday kembali bullish untuk menguji ulang resistensi kunci di 1.6745.

·        USD/JPY. Bias tetap bearish dalam jangka pendek untuk menguji area 101.80, yang apabila tertembus kembali akan memicu tekanan bearish lebih lanjut dengan target 101.40. Sebaliknya, resisten terdekat berada di sekitar 103.00. Penembusan jelas di atas level itu akan menghantarkan harga ke zona netral seiring ketidakjelasan arah dalam jangka pendek, dengan kemungkinan menguji ulang area 103.35-103.50.

·       USD/CHF. Dalam jangka pendek bias masih bullish meskipun dibutuhkan clear break di atas 0.9000 untuk memicu momentum bullish lanjutan menuju setidaknya level 0.9050, sebelum menguji area 0.9095. Pada fase ini, hanya kejatuhan di bawah area 0.8920 yang akan mengubah bias intraday menjadi bearish untuk menguji ulang area 0.8875, sebelum kembali rebound.

·     AUD/USD. The bias is neutral in nearest term with potential trading range seen between 0.8700 – 0.8800 area, a clear break back below 0.8700 area would trigger further bearish pressure retesting 0.8645 key support area. On the upside, only a clear break above 0.8800 area would change the intraday bias back to bullish aiming at least 0.8850 area before retesting 0.8910 key resistance area.

·       XAU/USD. Bias bullish dalam jangka pendek menguji area 1275, break diatas area tersebut akan memicu momentum bullish lebih lanjut menguji area 1285. Pada pergerakan kebawah, support terdekat terlihat disekitar area 1250, break dibawah area tersebut akan membawa harga ke zona netral, lebih jauh menguji area 1235.

·    Hang Seng Futures. Dalam jangka pendek, stochastic yang overbought mengindikasikan potensi koreksi bullish menuju area 22100. Penembusan jelas level itu akan memicu penguatan lebih lanjut mengincar target berikutnya di area 22250. Kegagalan dalam melewati hadangan area 22100 akan mengembalikan tekanan bearish untuk pengujian ulang area 21850.

·      Nikkei Futures. Penembusan area 14785 telah memicu momentum bearish lanjutan hingga mendekati area 14760, yang apabila tertembus akan membuka jalan menuju target berikutnya di area 14670. Sebaliknya, indikator sthocastic telah mensinyalkan potensi rebound. Yang bisa mendorong indeks kembali di atas 14785, untuk kemudian mendekati area 14985.

·   Kospi Futures. Bias masih bearish, meski stochastic dan RSI mengindikasikan sinyal koreksi bullish. Target bearish terdekat ada pada 248.00, break ke bawah area ini dapat memicu momentum bearish lanjutan untuk menuju area 244.00. Bagaimanapun, ada potensi koreksi bullish kembali ke area 252.20 dalam jangka pendek, break ke atas area ini akan melanjutkan koreksi bullish untuk menguji area 253.60.

Iklan

Market Outlook Today


EMAS

Komoditi Emas bergerak dikisaran sempit pada perdagangan kemarin, pada perdagangan di hari Rabu pagi tadi komoditi ini bergerak stabil dekat level tingginya seiring dengan para investor sedang menantikan hasil putusan Mahkamah Konstitusi Jerman terhadap dana bantuan Eropa dan hasil pertemuan kebijakan dari The Fed. Sementara itu Lembaga Pemeringkat hutang Moodys memperingatkan AS mungkin akan kehilangan rating hutangnya di pembahasan anggaran tahun depan yang belum menghasilkan kebijakan apapun yang secara bertahap mengurangi hutang negara tersebut, dan diperkirakan nantinya The Fed akan meluncurkan QE III.

EUR/USD

Mata uang tunggal Eropa kembali bergerak menguat ke posisi tertinggi 4 bulan pada perdagangan kemarin, menguatnya mata uang ini seiring dengan di tengah meningkatnya ekspektasi bahwa Mahkamah Konstitusi Jerman akan mendukung fasilitas bailout permanen pada kawasan zona Euro. Namun sebaliknya mata uang USD harus melemah akibat maraknya spekulasi QE III menjelang pertemuan kebijakan The Fed, namun perlu diwaspadai apresiasi Euro diperkirakan terbatas mengingat masih tersisanya resiko penolakan oleh Mahkamah Konstitusi Jerman. Penolakan terhadap ratifikasi European Stability Mechanism (ESM) tentu akan mengancam upaya ECB untuk menurunkan biaya pinjaman Spanyol dan Italia di bawah program pembelian obligasi yang diumumkan akhir minggu lalu.

NIKKEI

Bursa Jepang pada perdagangan di hari Rabu pagi bergerak cukup signifikan, bursa Asia bergerak menguat dipicu oleh hasil perdagangan yang positif di bursa AS semalam. Namun saat ini para investor masih berada di pinggiran untuk sementara sambil menantikan keputusan mahkamah konstitusi Jerman mengenai legalitas program bantuan pendanaan bagi kawasan zona Euro.

Posted from WordPress for Android


Market Outlook Today


EMAS

Komoditi Emas pada perdagangan kemarin ditutup melemah selama tiga hari berturut-turut, komoditi ini kembali tertekan dipicu oleh memudarnya harapan QE III di AS, ditambah juga Spanyol menyatakan akan menunda keputusan untuk mencari bantuan penyelamatan. Rencananya Presiden Fed Ben Bernanke akan berbicara pada pertemuan tahunan di Jackson Hole nanti malam, pasar sebelumnya mengharapkan bahwa dalam pertemuan tersebut Bernanke akan mengisyaratkan QE III akan tetapi saat ini ekspektasi tersebut makin pudar.

EUR/USD

Mata uang Eropa kembali bergerak melemah pada perdagangan kemarin, Euro bergerak melemah untuk kedua kalinya terhadap dolar kemarin setelah sebagian investor meragukan langkah QE III di AS yang kemungkinan akan diumumkan dalam testimoni Bernanke nanti malam. Pergerakan mata uang bergerak terbatas karena para pelaku pasar sedang menantikan hasil testimoni Pimpinan The Fed Ben Bernanke yang akan diumumkan melalui simposium tahunan The Fed di Jackson Hole Wyoming. Jika terindikasi adanya upaya untuk melanjutkan kebijakan QE III oleh The Fed maka diperkirakan berpotensi  menekan dolar lebih lanjut, selain itu investor juga menunggu hasil sidang ECB hari Kamis minggu depan dan sidang The Fed tanggal 12-13 September mendatang.

NIKKEI

Bursa saham Jepang pada perdagangan di hari Jumat akhir minggu ini bergerak cenderung melemah, di penghujung minggu yang sekaligus hari terakhir di bulan Agustus ini bursa saham Asia tergerus karena para investor mulai menurunkan harapannya akan QE III The Fed dan di tengah kekhawatiran bahwa perekonomian China mengalami perlambatan. Saham Sharp kembali menjadi fokus perhatian perusahaan ini dan Hon Hai Precision Industry akan mengucurkan dana sebesar $1 M untuk meningkatkan kapasitas produksi panel LCD, meskipun dengan beredarnya kabar tersebut harga saham Sharp tetap anjlok sebesar 11%.

Posted from WordPress for Android


Market Outlook Today


EMAS

Komoditi Emas pada perdagangan kemarin melorot cukup dalam, melorotnya komoditi ini seiring dengan hasil pertemuan ECB yang tidak memberikan sinyal akan melakukan langkah yang berarti untuk memastikan keutuhan kawasan zona Euro. Presiden ECB Mario Draghi minggu lalu telah menyatakan bahwa ECB siap melakukan segala yang dibutuhkan untuk memastikan keutuhan kawasan zona Euro, tetapi pada pidatonya yang ditunggu-tunggu semalam Draghi seperti menarik kembali komitmen tersebut. Draghi justru menyatakan bahwa tidak ada program drastis dari ECB sampai setidaknya bulan September.

EUR/USD

Mata uang tunggal Eropa kembali bergerak melemah cukup dalam pada perdagangan kemarin, Euro bergerak melemah setelah sempat menyentuh level tertinggi dalam nyaris satu bulan belakangan, swing pergerakan mata uang ini terjadi setelah ECB dianggap gagal memenuhi janjinya untuk melakukan segala cara demi mempertahankan keutuhan mata uang Euro. Presiden ECB Mario Draghi minggu lalu telah menyatakan bahwa ECB siap melakukan segala yang dibutuhkan untuk memastikan keutuhan kawasan zona Euro, tetapi pada pidatonya yang ditunggu-tunggu semalam Draghi seperti menarik kembali komitmen tersebut. Draghi justru menyatakan bahwa tidak ada program drastis dari ECB sampai setidaknya bulan September.

HANGSENG

Bursa saham Hongkong bergerak pada perdagangan di akhir minggu, sesuai prediksi ECB semalam tidak memberikan sinyal yang jelas mengenai rencananya untuk menyelamatkan kawasan zona Euro. Bank sentral ini dianggap gagal untuk memberikan keyakinan kepada para investor. Ada beberapa saham di bursa saham Hongkong yang bergerak melemah diantaranya adalah HSBC, Henderson, Hutchinson, dan SHK Properties

Posted from WordPress for Android


Market Outlook Today


EMAS

Komoditi Emas merosot cukup tajam pada perdagangan kemarin, merosotnya komoditi ini dipicu oleh kembalinya kekhawatiran mengenai memburuknya krisis utang di kawasan zona Euro akan tetapi permintaan safe haven berhasil menahan pelemahan komoditi ini tetap moderat. Ikut memicu merosotnya komoditi ini seiring amblesnya bursa saham AS dan merosotya harga Minyak mentah, tetapi penurunan komoditi Emas sedikit tertahan setelah IMF menyatakan akan melakukan diskusi dengan otoritas Yunani mengenai cara untuk membuat program-program ekonomi di Yunani kembali berjalan sesuai dengan rencana.

EUR/USD

Terjadi kabar kurang bagus di kawasan Ekonomi Uni Eropa menambah deretan berita negatif mengenai kawasan ekonomi tersebut, outlook peringkat kredit Jerman, Belanda dan Luxembourg diturunkan oleh Moody’s Investors Service menjadi berstatus negatif dari status stabil meskipun masih memiliki peringkat Aaa. Moody’s menyampaikan bahwa kemungkinan keluarnya Yunani dari kawasan ekonomi Uni Eropa semakin besar dan sedikit banyak akan mempengaruhi resiko kredit negara – negara tersebut.

HANGSENG

Bursa saham Jepang pada perdagangan di hari Selasa pagi bergerak melemah, melemahnya bursa saham Jepang ini dipicu oleh hasil akhir perdagangan di bursa saham Wall Street yang kurang menggembirakan memberikan dorongan negatif pada perdagangan di bursa saham Jepang pagi ini. Kekhawatiran mengenai memburuknya krisis utang Eropa masih menjadi perhatian para investor. Ada beberapa saham yang bergerak melemah terutama dari sektor teknologi diantaranya adalah Sony, Toshiba, Hitachi, dan Fujitsu.

Posted from WordPress for Android


Market Review Eropa


Market Review Eropa :

Euro tertekan akibat ketidak-pastian politik di Yunani yang membuat investor khawatir akan kemampuan Athena untuk hindari default dan bertahan di zona-euro. Sterling melemah seiring berlanjutnya penurunan harga rumah di Inggris. Aussie turun akibat memburuknya defisit neraca perdagangan Australia. Emas dan minyak tergelincir, tertekan oleh penguatan dollar yang gerogoti daya tarik komoditas. Indeks Dow futures melemah akibat ketidak-pastian politik di Yunani dan ancaman perbedaan kebijakan antara Jerman dengan Perancis untuk selesaikan masalah utang zona-euro. Investor kini nantikan pernyataan ECB’s Draghi, pidato Fed’s Lacker, dan data optimisme ekonomi AS untuk mencari petunjuk lebih lanjut akan outlook pemulihan ekonomi dunia.


Market Outlook Today


EMAS

Komoditi Emas pada perdagangan di hari Kamis bergerak menguat signifikan di tengah kenaikan bursa saham AS dan optimisme bahwa IMF akan meningkatkan dana talangan untuk mengatasi krisis keuangan Eropa, Komoditi Emas ini mengalami rally selama 3 hari berturut – turut setelah Goldman Sachs melaporkan penghasilan yang berada di atas estimasi. Logam mulia menguat signifikan di hari Selasa lalu setelah pertumbuhan ekonomi China yang melambat memberikan sinyal bahwa PBOC akan melakukan ekspansi moneter. Di perkirakan Komoditi Emas Berjangka pada perdagangan hari ini berpotensi menguat setelah pasar kembali dihinggapi sentiment positif.

EUR/USD

Lelang sukses di Portugal dan Jerman ditambah dengan kemungkinan IMF menambah sumber dayanya untuk mengatasi krisis utang Eropa memicu Euro menguat sebesar 1% terhadap US Dollar dan Yen, Lelang bills di Jerman dan Portugal juga mendorong indeks regional. Pemerintah Jerman menjual 3,44 M Euro tenor dua tahun dengan memberi yield terendah dalam sejarah yaitu sebesar 0,17%, sedangkan Portugal mengumpulkan 2,5 M Euro sesuai target dalam lelang T-bills dengan yield sesuai atau di bawah lelang sebelumnya. Hasil lelang ini menyusul lelang lain yang digelar beberapa negara bahkan yang terkena downgrade, serangkaian lelang sukses itu mengindikasikan bahwa bantuan likuiditas dari ECB melalui pinjaman murah 3 tahun mulai membuahkan hasil. Euro juga menguat berkat laporan IMF berencana menambah kapabilitas pinjamannya minimal $500 M untuk melindungi ekonomi global dari efek krisis utang Eropa, IMF mengatakan rencana itu muncul setelah mengidentifikasikan potensi pembiayaan hingga $1 triliun selama beberapa tahun ke depan. Pernyataan ini menimbulkan harapan IMF akan mampu meredam dampak krisis Eropa.

NIKKEI

Bursa saham Jepang pada perdagangan di hari Kamis pagi ini menguat cukup signifikan di tengah positifnya hasil perdagangan di bursa saham Wall Street semalam, Indeks S&P 500 ditutup di atas level 1300 poin yang belum pernah terlihat sejak bulan Juli tahun lalu. Ada beberapa saham yang bergerak menguat diantaranya adalah Sony, Toshiba, Toyota, dan Canon. Di perkirakan Indeks Berjangka Nikkei pada perdagangan hari ini berpotensi tapi cenderung terbatas.


Market Outlook Today


EMAS

Komoditi Emas berakhir menguat pada perdagangan kemarin, harga membukukan kenaikan karena pergerakan bursa -bursa saham di Eropa semalam membukukan kenaikan yang cukup signifikan. Bursa saham Eropa mengalami kenaikan dan mencapai posisi tertinggi dalam 5 bulan belakangan mengakhiri penurunan selama 3 hari berturut – turut. Kenaikan bursa Eropa terjadi setelah pada lelang obligasi semalam yield obligasi Perancis mengalami penurunan meskipun S&P kembali melancarkan serangan dan menurunkan rating kredit EFSF. Sebelumnya akhir minggu lalu S&P telah menurunkan rating kredit Perancis sebesar 1 peringkat menjadi AA+. Di perkirakan Komoditi Emas Berjangka pada perdagangan hari ini berpotensi menguat setelah pasar kembali dihinggapi sentiment positif.

EUR/USD

Mata uang tunggal Eropa setelah beberapa bulan menguat sebesar 3% indeks harga konsumen turun menjadi 2,8% dalam publikasi awal, inti CPI diperkirakan akan melemah 1,6 %. Jumlah pinjaman Bank Spanyol ke Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) tercatat naik pada bulan Desember 2011, kini total pinjaman bank di negeri matador mencapai titik tertinggi sejak Juli 2010. Pinjaman bank Spanyol ke ECB menembus 134 M Euro ($173.4 miliar) di bulan terakhir tahun lalu, Bank Spanyol memang mengurangi pinjaman pada fasilitas operasi pendanaan utama ECB, dari 54,5 M euro menjadi 47,1 M Euro. Dari situ bisa disimpulkan bahwa perbankan Spanyol adalah penggemar fasilitas pinjaman 3 tahun yang ditawarkan oleh ECB bulan lalu. Martin van Vliet Ekonom ING Bank Brussel mengatakan Dana pinjaman kemungkinan dipakai untuk membayar hutang jangka pendek namun ada juga yang menggunakannya untuk pembelian obligasi Spanyol, asumsi van Vliet cukup beralasan jika mengacu pada rally nilai obligasi jangka pendek Spanyol beberapa minggu terakhir.

HANGSENG

Bursa saham Hongkong pada perdagangan di hari Selasa pagi ini bergeraka menguat, Bursa saham Hongkong terangkat oleh sentimen positif yang dibawa dari kawasan Eropa. Hasil perdagangan di bursa – bursa Eropa tadi malam bergerak positif setelah yield obligasi Perancis tadi malam mengalami penurunan. Ada beberapa saham yang bergerak menguat diantaranya adalah Cheung Kong, HSBC, dan Wharf. Di perkirakan Indeks Berjangka Hangseng pada perdagangan hari ini berpotensi menguat.


US Dollar Traders Have to Monitor Debt Talks, Euro Market, Risk Trends


US Dollar Traders Have to Monitor Debt Talks, Euro Market, Risk Trends

By John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist

22 July 2011 21:54 GMT

The US Dollar $USD IndexNY Spot Close 9457.56
US_Dollar_Traders_Have_to_Monitor_Debt_Talks_Euro_Market_Risk_Trends_body_USDOLLAR_risk.png, US Dollar Traders Have to Monitor Debt Talks, Euro Market, Risk Trends

US Dollar Traders Have to Monitor Debt Talks, Euro Market, Risk Trends

Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar: Neutral

The countdown for the US is getting serious. We have concluded another weak where the US government has failed to come to a compromise on its deficit troubles. Further creating troubles for the greenback, we have seen the European funding market (a source of liquidity costs that plays to the dollar’s safe haven status) come into at least a temporary period of relief with a massive bailout effort by the EU; while risk appetite trends have taken a considerable jump to defer that long-threatened collapse. That said, all of these headwinds will do more to anchor the currency than necessarily generate a meaningful trend over the next week.

Heading into the new trading week, the deficit debate carries the greatest potential sway over the dollar. Depending on how this situation evolves; it could have a sweeping effect over the single currency and even the broader financial markets. Yet, it is prudent to work within reasonable probabilities to interpret how this matter will influence the dollar. If our outlook were for two weeks, it would be a virtual guarantee that the greenback is in for significant volatility and even a significant trend. However, our outlook is just for the upcoming week. That being the case, the outlook is far more fluid. Considering the deficit ceiling will be officially breached on August 2nd, there is time for political maneuvering as Democrats and Republicans gain points for sticking to their guns. It is a severely low probability that this situation ends in a technical default and the likelihood of a solution before next weekend is high.

How the deficit solution impacts the dollar and capital markets is a function of what is agreed to. If the limit is simply lifted to avoid the pain of a default event, it could offer temporary relief to capital markets and the greenback in equal parts. That said, the follow through would likely be limited as ratings agencies have warned the reasoning for a downgrade runs beyond just the quick fix and to the lack of long-term fiscal plan. Alternatively, should there be proposal that targets significant deficit reduction over a reasonable timeframe through a revenue (taxes) focus, an expenditure (spending) focus or a mix of both; it could be seen as an effort to pump the break on the economy and withdraw the very stimulus that has driven confidence and capital markets since the Great Recession – which would weigh on risk appetite which adds a safe haven appeal to the dollar as it garners attention for improved outlook for stability. If we end the week without a clear solution; expect volatility to grow increasingly unstable as rumors and headlines spur fear and speculation.

Another major driver for the dollar that fits within the ‘theme’ category is the blowback the greenback bears from the perception of the Euro Zone’s credit health. This past week, officials announced sweeping policy agendas to smother the sense of crisis contagion in the sovereign and private lending markets. There were major efforts adopted; but there are also significant shortfalls. Ultimately it comes down to market sentiment. If the steps taken don’t boost confidence or if risk aversion is an engrained and global driver, the euro will continue its slide and thereby boost its most liquid counterpart: the dollar.

When it comes down to it, these more pervasive and vague problems will determine the dollar’s activity level and general direction. However, there are a few scheduled events that can stir short-term volatility and perhaps even contribute or detract from existing trends. We have consumer confidence and housing sector data; but the real market-mover is the first reading of 2Q GDP. Depending on how risk trends are behaving, the outcome for the dollar can follow risk trends or speculation for additional stimulus. – JK


Dollar Ignores Budget Headway, Earnings and Suffers for Risk Rally


Dollar Ignores Budget Headway, Earnings and Suffers for Risk Rally

Dollar Ignores Budget Headway, Earnings and Suffers for Risk Rally

By John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist

20 July 2011 05:07 GMT
  • Dollar Ignores Budget Headway, Earnings and Suffers for Risk Rally
  • Euro Surprisingly Steady Despite Portugal Surprise Gap, Rising Greece Uncertainty
  • British Pound: Will the BoE Minutes Stir Volatility Like the Last Statement?
  • Canadian Dollar Rallies after BoC Rouses Interest Rate Hikes
  • Australian Dollar Torn Between a Rally in Capital Markets, Dovish Turn from RBA
  • Swiss Franc Marks a Sharp Correction but was it Risk or the Euro’s Doing?
  • Gold Rally Ends with Record Highs but Not Record Consistency

Dollar Ignores Budget Headway, Earnings and Suffers for Risk Rally

Looking at the mix of performance against its most prominent counterparts, it was clear that the currency was following its traditional risk appetite lines. This in itself is rather remarkable because we have seen this particular driver drop off as an immediate catalyst in recent days because of the uncertainties surrounding the countdown for the US to surpass its legal budget ceiling. Gauging the convictions behind investor sentiment Tuesday, we can defer to the benchmark S&P 500 Index which rallied a remarkable 1.7 percent – the biggest single-day rally since March 3rd and a sound rejection of a major boundary to bearish progression (the 1,300 level). We can assess this particular catalysts’ influence over the greenback by the severity of the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollar’s rallies against the common benchmark. Offering further confirmation of just how pervasive risk trends were, we would further see the greenback actually gain traction against the Japanese yen and Swiss franc – a more convincing funding currency and safe haven respectively.

This rally in risk appetite is somewhat suspicious given the fundamentals that were on tap through Tuesday; but it makes more sense when we reflect on the underlying market conditions we are dealing with. Volatility is a stubborn hold over from the previous two weeks when headlines were stirring capital turnover; but the masses are still refusing to generate a consistent direction (bullish or bearish) due to the big-ticket threats that are loom just over the horizon. The investor sentiment influence is certainly showing through in the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index’s (ticker = USDollar) bearings; but EURUSD is a better guide for the currency’s views beyond the volatility of risk appetite. The benchmark pair gained on the day; but ultimately it is deeply mired in congestion. For this cross specifically we isolate two major, conflicting fundamental drivers. On the euro’s side, the uncertainty surrounding the sovereign debt crisis is providing consistent pressure (more on that below). That is directly contrasted by the fear that we will reach August 2nd without a fix for the US debt ceiling. Through this past session, President Obama voiced support for the ‘Gang of Six’ proposal that would reduce the deficit by $3.7 billion. And, though Speaker of the House Boehner remarked that it didn’t go far enough, it seems that the government is working towards an agreeable compromise.

The other important driver for the day (the housing data offered little in the way of lasting influence over the dollar) was the round of 2Q earnings. At the top of our watch list were the bank reports: Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Bank of New York Mellon. The health of these financial sector giants represents a strong driver for investor optimism, offer a valuable reflection to the health of the financial sector and presents its own reflection of underlying growth. The BoA $9.1 billion loss is a good reflection of the troubles with the mortgage market as well as the increased regulation; while the $0.33 earnings-per-share speaks to the leveraged use of accounting to maintain fragile market confidence.

Euro Surprisingly Steady Despite Portugal Surprise Gap, Rising Greece Uncertainty

While we haven’t seen another critical step towards the total spread of the Euro Zone sovereign debt crisis; the headlines continue to undermine any positive arguments that are made in support for the euro. The heavy headline flows from the region Tuesday were topped by Portugal Prime Minister Coelho’s announcement that a previously unreported 2 billion euro budget gap was uncovered. Perhaps just as notable though, Spain and Greece auctioned off debt to dubious yields and bidders; ECB member Nowotny seemed to open the door to allowing a temporary default for Greece; and German Chancellor Angela Merkel attempted to curb expectations of a solution for the crisis by the close of Thursday’s summit.

British Pound: Will the BoE Minutes Stir Volatility Like the Last Statement?

The Bank of England rate decision has been a non-event for the sterling for a number of months now. On the other hand, the minutes that reflect the policy authority’s discussions, reasoning for their hold and forecast for the future can certainly catch the markets off guard. Considering inflation and economic activity futures have eased while European financial stability is under pressure, a bearish shift is possible.

Canadian Dollar Rallies after BoC Rouses Interest Rate Hikes

No change was expected from the Bank of Canada’s rate decision this past trading session; and indeed, the central bank wouldn’t disappoint. That said, the statement that followed the decision offered a little more illumination than was expected. The market focused on the missing word ‘eventually’ in reference to when rates would rise. With a forecast for the economy to hit full potential by mid-2012, this is a good hawkish mix.

Australian Dollar Torn Between a Rally in Capital Markets, Dovish Turn from RBA

Like its monetary policy regime, the Australian dollar is not untouchable. After the RBA minutes reported that it could hold on rates for an extended period of time to assess the financial market feedback from Europe’s troubles and inflation pressures, the currency started to pullback. It is difficult to see exactly how much influence this has on a pair like AUDUSD; but AUDCAD offers a better contrast to policy expectations.

Swiss Franc Marks a Sharp Correction but was it Risk or the Euro’s Doing?

Monday’s pullback could have been written off as volatility; but the stumble from the franc Tuesday cannot be brushed off so quickly. The tumble against high-yielding currencies like the Aussie and kiwi dollar’s can be attributed to the risk appetite run; but USDCHF and EURCHF reversals are more intrinsic to the franc’s fundamentals. The currency comes under the magnifying glass when the market doesn’t blindly sell euros.

Gold Rally Ends with Record Highs but Not Record Consistency

We were so close to hitting that unprecedented 12-day run; but ultimately, gold wouldn’t make it. After 11 consecutive days of advance; the precious metal would finally fall back on suggestions that the US president and Congress were coming closer to a palatable compromise on the ever-problematic debt fears. That said, issues in the US and Europe are far from resolved; so don’t build a large short just yet.

ECONOMIC DATA

Next 24 Hours

GMT Currency Release Survey Previous Comments
0:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (MAY) 0.2% Leading index growth declined since April
1:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (JUL) 3.3% Expectations may point to actual CPI
5:00 JPY Coincident Index (MAY F) 106 Japanese economic measures have recovered after March, though still not at pre-quake levels
5:00 JPY Leading Index (MAY F) 99.8
6:00 EUR German Producer Prices (MoM) (JUN) 0.0% 0.0% An expected fall in long term price change may result in dovish ECB decisions
6:00 EUR German Producer Prices (YoY) (JUN) 5.5% 6.1%
7:00 JPY Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (JUN) 5.7% Broader tracking of Japanese retail
8:00 EUR Italian Industrial Orders s.a. (MoM) (MAY) 2.3% -6.4% Italian orders expected to increase, led by exports though not likely to have major effects on country’s own debt problems
8:00 EUR Italian Industrial Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (MAY) 10.2% 5.8%
8:00 EUR Italian Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) (MAY) 1.5%
8:00 EUR Italian Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) (MAY) 14.2%
9:00 EUR Italian Current Account (euros) (MAY) -5604M Payments balance recovered last month
11:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (JUL 15) -5.1% Could improve on housing starts
12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (MAY) 0.1% -0.1% Same level sales could have some push behind future rate hikes
14:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (JUL A) -10.2 -9.8 Advance data shows softer confidence
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JUN) 1.9% -3.8% Sales expected to recover following today’s better home starts
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales (JUN) 4.90M 4.81M
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUL 15) -1500K -3124K Reduction in crude inventories again could mean pickup in demand, though moderately weaker than previous
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (JUL 15) 1500K 2967K
14:30 USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (JUL 15) 615K
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (JUL 15) -100K -840K
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (JUL 15) 0.0% -0.4%
22:45 NZD Net Migration s.a. (JUN) -360 Further outmigration could point to weaker domestic economy
23:01 GBP UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence (JUN) 49 55 EU troubles expected to drag
23:50 JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) (JUN) -¥250.4B -¥474.6B Trade balance expected to moderately recover as large manufacturing industries and companies recover after earthquake
23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (JUN) -4.1 -10.3
23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (JUN) 11 12.3
23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) (JUN) -¥149.0B -¥855.8B
GMT Currency Upcoming Events & Speeches
1:30 JPY BOJ Deputy Governor Yamaguchi to Speak in Matsumoto City
2:00 CNY Conference Board China July Leading Economic Index
8:30 GBP Bank of England Minutes
14:30 CAD Monetary Policy Report
22:15 USD Fed’s Sack to Speak to Money Marketeers in New York

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE – 18:00 GMT

Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist 2 1.5160 1.6600 86.00 0.8900 1.0275 1.1800 0.8620 118.00 146.05
Resist 1 1.5000 1.6300 81.50 0.8550 1.0000 1.1000 0.8520 113.50 140.00
Spot 1.4133 1.6121 79.19 0.8248 0.9500 1.0731 0.8557 111.92 127.67
Support 1 1.4000 1.5935 78.50 0.8075 0.9500 1.0400 0.7745 109.00 125.00
Support 2 1.3700 1.5750 76.25 0.7900 0.9055 1.0200 0.6850 106.00 119.00

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE –EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMTSCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT

Currency USD/MXN USD/TRY USD/ZAR USD/HKD USD/SGD Currency USD/SEK USD/DKK USD/NOK
Resist 2 13.8500 1.7425 7.4025 7.8165 1.3650 Resist 2 7.5800 5.6625 6.1150
Resist 1 12.5000 1.6730 7.3500 7.8075 1.3250 Resist 1 6.5175 5.3100 5.7075
Spot 11.6639 1.6586 6.9301 7.7950 1.2154 Spot 6.5124 5.2758 5.5280
Support 1 11.5200 1.5725 6.5575 7.7490 1.2145 Support 1 6.0800 5.1050 5.3040
Support 2 11.4400 1.5040 6.4295 7.7450 1.2000 Support 2 5.8085 4.9115 4.9410

INTRA-DAY PIVOT POINTS 18:00 GMT

Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist 2 1.4288 1.6250 79.50 0.8315 0.9647 1.0833 0.8660 112.95 128.28
Resist 1 1.4210 1.6186 79.35 0.8281 0.9574 1.0782 0.8609 112.43 127.98
Pivot 1.4140 1.6113 79.08 0.8217 0.9528 1.0690 0.8521 111.81 127.40
Support 1 1.4062 1.6049 78.93 0.8183 0.9455 1.0639 0.8470 111.29 127.09
Support 2 1.3992 1.5976 78.66 0.8119 0.9409 1.0547 0.8382 110.67 126.51

INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

\Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist. 3 1.4334 1.6280 80.02 0.8356 0.9591 1.0873 0.8676 113.65 129.34
Resist. 2 1.4284 1.6240 79.81 0.8329 0.9568 1.0838 0.8646 113.22 128.92
Resist. 1 1.4234 1.6200 79.60 0.8302 0.9546 1.0802 0.8616 112.78 128.50
Spot 1.4133 1.6121 79.19 0.8248 0.9500 1.0731 0.8557 111.92 127.67
Support 1 1.4032 1.6042 78.78 0.8194 0.9454 1.0660 0.8498 111.06 126.84
Support 2 1.3982 1.6002 78.57 0.8167 0.9432 1.0624 0.8468 110.62 126.42
Support 3 1.3932 1.5962 78.36 0.8140 0.9409 1.0589 0.8438 110.19 126.00

v

Written by: John Kicklighter, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com