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Posts tagged “Dow Jones Industrial Average

Market Outlook Today (Commodities Gold raced to one of its biggest daily rise)


EMAS 

Komoditi Emas melesat ke salah satu kenaikan harian terbesarnya dalam beberapa tahun terakhir pada perdagangan semalam seiring kekhawatiran terhadap hasil KTT Eropa, dan data kepercayaan konsumen AS yang mengecewakan telah menghidupkan kembali minat terhadap Logam Mulia ini sebagai aset lindung nilai. Rilis data menunjukkan kepercayaan konsumen AS diluar dugaan turun untuk bulan ini ke level terendah sejak Maret 2009 telah memicu penguatan Emas tadi malam, Emas diuntungkan dari statusnya sebagai lindung nilai menyusul perselisihan antara Prancis dan Jerman sebelum KTT Eropa yang akan mengadopsi sebuah rencana untuk mengurangi beban utang Yunani, memperkuat bank‐bank Eropa untuk menahan kerugian obligasi, dan menaikkan skala dana penyelamatan zona Euro untuk mencegah penularan krisis di pasar obligasi.

EUR/USD 

Pertemuan Menteri keuangan Uni Eropa tidak akan melangsungkan pada hari ini tetapi  untuk pertemuan kepala pemerintahan zona Euro dan Uni Eropa akan tetap berlangsung sesuai jadwal, juru bicara perwakilan Inggris di Uni Eropa mengutarakan Eropa menegaskan tidak akan melangsungkan pertemuan dengan Menteri Keuangan. Presiden Komisi Eropa Jose Manuel Barroso kemarin mengatakan akan memberikan paket komprehensif besok yang dapat menciptakan stabilitas dan pertumbuhan, sudah waktunya untuk mengakhiri ketidakpastian. Namun nara sumber Dow Jones mengutarakan pertemuan Menteri Keuangan dapat dilakukan setelah pimpinan Eropa menyepakati paket kebijakan, tersiar kabarnya pembatalan pertemuan ini membuat anjlok Euro setelah Dow Jones New Wires memberitakan pembatalan pertemuan Menteri Keuangan zona Euro yang sebelumnya dijadwalkan berlangsung hari ini. Pasar menunggu rapat untuk menanggulangi krisis utang kawasan Uni Eropa pada KTT yang akan dilangsungkan hari ini.

NIKKEI

Bursa saham Jepang pada perdagangan di hari Rabu pagi mengalami pergerakan melemah, pelemahan terjadi pada saham-saham eksportir setelah mata uang Yen meroket hingga mencapai posisi tertinggi sejak akhir PD II. Sementara itu kekhawatiran bahwa para petinggi Eropa akan gagal untuk mencapai kesepakatan penanganan krisis keuangan juga telah mengakibatkan pelemahan di bursa saham Asia. Adapaun saham – saham yang mengalami penurunan diantaranya adalah Toyota, Olympus, Softbank, dan Komatsu. Di perkirakan Indeks Berjangka Nikkei hari ini berpotensi menguat cenderung terbatas.

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Market Outlook Today


EMAS

Komoditi Emas dunia mengalami penurunan dalam minggu ini merupakan yang terparah dalam 4 bulan terakhir, dalam perdagangan kemarin Komoditi Emas sempat terpangkas hingga sebesar 2,4% ini adalah penurunan terbesar selama dalam 2 minggu. Penurunan harga Emas mengekor anjloknya harga komoditas dan pasar saham dunia, pasar saham global masuk ke dalam pasar bearish untuk pertama kali dalam dua tahun terakhir. Para pelaku pasar mencemaskan mengenai kondisi krisis utang di Eropa dan kemungkinan terjadinya resesi di AS. Apalagi the Federal Reserve sebelumnya mengungkapkan outlook perekonomian AS memiliki resiko penurunan yang sangat signifikan. Pernyataan the Fed tersebut juga ikut mendongkrak keperkasaan dollar ke level paling tinggi dalam 7 bulan terakhir terhadap 6 mata uang utama dunia.

EUR/USD

Mata uang tunggal Eropa mengalami pergerakan melemah terhadap US dolar pada perdagangan di hari Kamis, menguatnya US Dolar dipicu oleh pernyataan The Fed yang akan merubah portofolionya ke Obligasi jangka panjang dengan menggunakan apa yang dikenal pasar sebagai Operation Twist yang bertujuan untuk mendongkrak perekonomian dengan menempatkan lebih banyak tekanan pada suku bunga jangka panjang. The Fed juga menyatakan tidak akan mencetak uang baru meski begitu suramnya pandangan The Fed terhadap perekonomian telah memicu kekhawatiran investor.

HANGSENG

Bursa saham Hongkong pada perdagangan di Jumat pagi mengalami kemrosotan yang cukup signifikan, bursa saham Hongkong kembali melemah terpukul oleh kekhawatiran mengenai makin memburuknya kondisi ekonomi global setelah The Fed memperingatkan bahwa ekonomi AS masih memiliki risiko penurunan yang tinggi. Saham – saham di bursa Hongkong lesu, adapun saham – saham yang mengalami pelemahan diantaranya adalah HSBC , Hangseng Bank , dan Wharf Holdings.

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Market Review AS & Eropa


Market Review AS & Eropa

Euro menguat terhadap dollar, dimana dollar tergelincir 3% terhadap sekeranjang mata uang asing. Spot gold mengalami penurunan tajam dan ditutup dekat dengan $ 1829.70 per ons setelah sebelumnya mencetak rekor baru pada $ 1912.05 per ons di Asia. Crude oil naik sebesar $ 1.02 untuk berakhir dekat dengan $ 85.69 per barel setelah mencapai harga tertingginya $ 86.39. Dow Jones Industrial Average ditutup di atas level psychologically-significant 11,000 untuk berakhir dekat dengan 11141. S&P 500 dan Nasdaq juga ditutup menguat. Data ekonomi hari ini adalah CSPI Jepang, CB Leading Index dan Construction Work Done dari Australia, Info Business Climate Jerman, Industrial New Order, Industrial New Order dari EURO, Core Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders, OFHEO HPI, Crude Oil Inventories AS dan NBB Business Climate Belgia. Nikkei diperkirakan akan berada dalam kisaran 8,660 – 8,840.

EUR/USD closing 1.4441, high 1.4499, low 1.4351, XAUUSD C:1,829.70, H:1,912.05, L:1,823.90 CO-LS C: 85.69, H: 86.39, L: 83.40. Dow C: 11,141, H: 11,150, L:10,849.

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Crude Oil Set to Fall with S&P 500, Gold Gains on Safe-Haven Demand


By Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist

08 August 2011 11:01 GMT

Talking Points

  • Crude Oil Sinks, Following S&P 500 Amid Risk Aversion
  • Gold Proves Above $1700 Figure on Safe-Haven Demand

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $86.88 // +0.25 // +0.29%

Crude is firmly anchored to overall risk appetite trends, with the correlation between the WTI contract and the S&P 500 at the highest in nine months (0.78). Needless to say, this points the way lower as futures tracking the benchmark stock index trade down over 2.5 percent ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street. The selloff reflects traders’ interpretation of the Standard and Poor’s downgrade of the US credit rating in terms of its implications for the altering faltering global recovery, worrying it bring higher borrowing costs and amount to yet another headwind for the world’s top economy.

Prices broke below support at the bottom of a long-term rising channel set from the March 2009 low set in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. As with the S&P 500, a bounce to relieve increasingly oversold conditions seems reasonable in the near term. Near-term Fibonacci resistance lines up at $90.88. Alternatively, a sustained break through current support at $85.25 exposes $78.29.

Crude_Oil_Set_to_Fall_with_SP_500_Gold_Gains_on_Safe-Haven_Demand_body_Picture_3.png, Crude Oil Set to Fall with S&P 500, Gold Gains on Safe-Haven Demand

Spot Gold (NY Close): 1663.80 // +17.28 // +1.05%

Gold is understandably pushing higher, boosted by safe-haven demand as global slowdown fears are compounded in the wake of the S&P downgrade of the US credit rating. Indeed, seems particularly attractive when compared to anti-risk paper currency alternatives, facing no official intervention (as with the Franc and Yen) or a looming threat of renewed quantitative easing (as with the US Dollar ahead of Tuesday’s FOMC meeting).

Technical positioning is not quite as rosy however. Prices gapped above major resistance at a rising channel top in place since mid-May 2010, pointing to acceleration in the uptrend and exposing the measured target at $1745.97, but signs of negative RSI divergence warn that bullish momentum is waning and a blow-off top may be in progress. Near-term support stands at $1682.67, the 76.4% Fibonacci extension level.

Crude_Oil_Set_to_Fall_with_SP_500_Gold_Gains_on_Safe-Haven_Demand_body_Picture_4.png, Crude Oil Set to Fall with S&P 500, Gold Gains on Safe-Haven Demand

Spot Silver (NY Close): $38.35 // -0.56 // -1.43%

A would-be bullish breakout was quickly overturned, with prices once again testing the rising trend line set from the late-June low. As with gold, safe-haven demand is underpinning the cheaper metal but the correlation between the two metals is on the wane, perhaps alluding to its inferior liquidity parameters. Near-term support stands at $38.88, while resistance lines at $40.17.

Crude_Oil_Set_to_Fall_with_SP_500_Gold_Gains_on_Safe-Haven_Demand_body_Picture_5.png, Crude Oil Set to Fall with S&P 500, Gold Gains on Safe-Haven Demand

 

 


Gold Could Dip to Support Below 1580


By Jamie Saettele,

26 July 2011 15:15 GMT

300 Minute Bars

eliottWaves_gold_2_body_gold.png, Gold Could Dip to Support Below 1580

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Focus remains on the long term (multiyear) trendline, which is at 1681 this week (increases about $5 a week). A traditional measuring technique reveals a longer term objective of 1692.05 (adding width of consolidation to breakout level). Short term momentum considerations (divergence) and the latest rally possibly being from a triangle warn of a drop into support from current levels. Support is 1575 and 1555.


Dollar Rate Outlook Cut by QE3 Talk, Safety by Downgrade Warning


By John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist

14 July 2011 06:42 GMT
Credit Market Previous Current Change % Change Outlook *
DJ Credit Default Swaps 99.900 96.479 -3.421 -3.42% Improving
10 Year Junk-Bond Spread 473.78 506.02 32.24 6.80% Deteriorating
Credit Card Delinquencies 3.29 3.09 -0.2 -0.20% Improving
Mortgage Delinquencies 8.25 8.32 0.07 0.07% Deteriorating
US 3 Month Libor Rate 0.245 0.246 0.0005 0.20% Improving
Total Money Market Funds 2750.77 2707.55 -43.22 -1.57% Improving
Stock Market Last Week Current Change % Change Outlook
Dow Jones Industrial Average 11897.27 12168.48 271.21 2.28% Improving
Dow Jones Real Estate Index 225.83 234.39 8.56 3.79% Improving
Dow Jones Financial Index 355.86 363.53 7.67 2.16% Improving
Dow Jones Retail Index 93 96.54 3.54 3.81% Improving
S&P Volatility 21.32 18.14 -3.18 -3.18% Improving
Put-Call Ratio 1.5 1.57 0.07 0.07% Deteriorating
Market Breadth (Adv – Dec) 0.2755 0.3667 0.0911 9.11% Improving
Economic Indicators Previous Current Change % Change Outlook
GDP (Annualized) 2.8 1.8 1.8 1.80% Improving
Mortgage Applications 13 -5.9 -5.9 -5.90% Deteriorating
Initial Jobless Claims 438 414 -24 -5.48% Improving
Consumer Confidence 66 60.8 -5.2 -7.88% Deteriorating
ISM Manufacturing 60.4 53.5 -6.9 -11.42% Deteriorating
ISM Services 52.8 54.6 1.8 3.41% Improving
ISM Services – Employment 51.9 54 2.1 4.05% Improving
Credit Market Previous Current Change % Change Outlook *
DJ Credit Default Swaps 99.900 96.479 -3.421 -3.42% Improving
10 Year Junk-Bond Spread 473.78 506.02 32.24 6.80% Deteriorating
Credit Card Delinquencies 3.29 3.09 -0.2 -0.20% Improving
Mortgage Delinquencies 8.25 8.32 0.07 0.07% Deteriorating
US 3 Month Libor Rate 0.245 0.246 0.0005 0.20% Improving
Total Money Market Funds 2750.77 2707.55 -43.22 -1.57% Improving
Stock Market Last Week Current Change % Change Outlook
Dow Jones Industrial Average 11897.27 12168.48 271.21 2.28% Improving
Dow Jones Real Estate Index 225.83 234.39 8.56 3.79% Improving
Dow Jones Financial Index 355.86 363.53 7.67 2.16% Improving
Dow Jones Retail Index 93 96.54 3.54 3.81% Improving
S&P Volatility 21.32 18.14 -3.18 -3.18% Improving
Put-Call Ratio 1.5 1.57 0.07 0.07% Deteriorating
Market Breadth (Adv – Dec) 0.2755 0.3667 0.0911 9.11% Improving
Economic Indicators Previous Current Change % Change Outlook
GDP (Annualized) 2.8 1.8 1.8 1.80% Improving
Mortgage Applications 13 -5.9 -5.9 -5.90% Deteriorating
Initial Jobless Claims 438 414 -24 -5.48% Improving
Consumer Confidence 66 60.8 -5.2 -7.88% Deteriorating
ISM Manufacturing 60.4 53.5 -6.9 -11.42% Deteriorating
ISM Services 52.8 54.6 1.8 3.41% Improving
ISM Services – Employment 51.9 54 2.1 4.05% Improving

An Improving outlook means the Federal Reserve coulduse thisindicator

to support a rate hike. The opposite stands for a deteriorating outlook.

The Economy and the Dollar

The dollar has put in for a dramatic reversal this past week as the primary points of appeal for the currency have taken a clear blow. Up until Wednesday, the greenback managed a remarkable rally that guided the benchmark EURUSD pair to a decline that topped 740 points. However, the currency’s performance with this particular exchange rate was not replicated across its other liquid counterparts. What does this say about the dollar – that its strength was not uniquely derived from its own fundamental backdrop; rather this dramatic charge was leveraged by the weakness of its counterpart.

FED_WATCH_07_14_2011_body_Picture_1.png, Dollar Rate Outlook Cut by QE3 Talk, Safety by Downgrade Warning

Considering the Euro / US dollar exchange rate is the most liquid currency pair in the FX market by a wide margin; it should come as no surprise that evidence of a worsening sovereign debt crisis in the Euro Zone readily contributed to the greenback’s safe haven appeal. Yet, this primary role for the currency was significantly diminished by the commentary from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that further stimulus may be pursued and a warning from Moody’s that it was putting the United States’ top sovereign credit rating on review. Yet, while the market reacted to both developments with fervor; neither headline was off the markets radar. Not long ago, Standard & Poor’s warned the US could face a downgrade and the central banker offered possible scenarios for both tightening and loosening policy. That being the case, should we expect dollar to sustain its dive?

A Closer Look at Financial and Consumer Conditions

FED_WATCH_07_14_2011_body_Picture_7.png, Dollar Rate Outlook Cut by QE3 Talk, Safety by Downgrade Warning

The stability of the US and global financial markets is an immediate and real concern. In the past few weeks, we have seen demand (measured through cost) for liquidity rise to multi-month highs. This call for short-term funds finds much of its genesis in the European debt crisis. With market access problems spreading from Greece to Portugal, Ireland and even Spain and Italy; we are facing a clear deterioration in funding conditions for one of the biggest collective markets in the world. A far greater threat however is the possibility of a US downgrade. With the government facing an August 2nd deadline to lift the debt ceiling or face a technical default; the market is looking down the barrel of a proverbial gun. Nearly every asset in the world is priced on Treasury’s risk free rate.

FED_WATCH_07_14_2011_body_Picture_10.png, Dollar Rate Outlook Cut by QE3 Talk, Safety by Downgrade Warning

There is general consensus that the US and global economies are cooling after their strong post-recession recovery. However, that doesn’t mean that market sentiment is pricing in this reality. This past Friday, the market was delivered a clear shock when the Labor Department reported that June nonfarm payrolls rose a sparse 18,000 positions – a wide miss on expectations and the smallest increase in nine months. The details were even more sobering with participation at a quarter-century low, the average duration of unemployment at a record high and those that want a job but were forced out the market hitting a record as well. What is truly remarkable is that the stubbornly high level of unemployment contradicts the efficacy of the government and Fed’s stimulus efforts. This is the source of the anti-QE3 argument.

The Financial and Capital Markets

Volatility is more remarkable for the capital markets than direction. Over the past few weeks we have seen a dramatic rally for the benchmarks for investor-favored asset classes shift to sharp declines. The initial run up found little in the way of tangible fundamental support; but the efforts of European officials towards solving their financial situation and rumors of further stimulus from the US certainly offered a base for bullish speculation. The turning point for the US markets was the disappointing employment report.

FED_WATCH_07_14_2011_body_Picture_4.png, Dollar Rate Outlook Cut by QE3 Talk, Safety by Downgrade Warning

Though this is just one indicator for the world’s largest economy, it represents the largest single economic catalyst in the world and it happens to be one of the primary targets of the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions. As the EU sovereign contagion spreads further and headlines of fallout from a US downgrade overwhelm investors; sentiment will maintain a dovish bearing. However, there is another factor that could offer a short-term reversal – or just as readily exacerbate fears: the US 2Q earnings season. The action begins this week with JPMorgan, Citi and Google on the docket. The following week is far denser with its releases; but we should keep a broader view of the results. If overall earnings growth is slowing; it will undermine the increasingly fragile sense of risk appetite that has kept equities near highs.

A Closer Look at Market Conditions

FED_WATCH_07_14_2011_body_Picture_13.png, Dollar Rate Outlook Cut by QE3 Talk, Safety by Downgrade Warning

For the capital markets benchmarks, we see in price a lack of conviction but a sure sign of uncertainty. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average attempted a strong run to overtake three-year highs through the end of June and into the beginning of July; but the implications of setting new highs were greater than the market was willing to approve. Having pulled back sharply from this short-term cycle high; it is clear that speculative is increasingly prevalent without a commensurate participation from investors who are willing to stick with trends. One interesting factor is the gradual increase in volume that will support a prevailing trend.

FED_WATCH_07_14_2011_body_Picture_16.png, Dollar Rate Outlook Cut by QE3 Talk, Safety by Downgrade Warning

Where we have lacked for consistent trends, we have certainly made up for it in sheer volatility. The traditional readings using implied volatility figures through options have hardly budged. That said, price action has shown a remarkable increase in activity (measured through increased tick volume as well as wider daily ranges – not to mention dramatic turns in market bearings). Once again, we have to point out the short fall in the usual volatility readings – they are based on ‘insurance premiums’ that reflect the market’s fears. Expectations for maintaining and expanding stimulus, ongoing earnings growth and unrelenting economic growth has left the market with unrealistic projections and a book of excessive risk.

 

Written by: John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


Today Market Outlook


Jumat, 24 Juni 2011

MINYAK
Minyak Rebound Setelah Merosot Terkait Rilis IEA

Harga minyak kembali pulih lebih dari 1 dollar setelah anjlok disesi sebelumnya terkait berita adanya pelepasan persediaan cadangan minyak mentah untuk ke 3 kalinya. Harga minyak mentah As menguat $1.17 menjadi $92.19/ barel. International Energy Agency atau IEA mengumumkan pada hari Kamis bahwa badan tersebut akan menambah persediaan minyak mentah dunia sebanyak 2.5% untuk bulan depan dan membawa harga turun, dengan harga minyak AS menghapus penguatan tahun ini.

EMAS
Harga Emas Masih Kuat

Spot emas naik $2.80 di Asia menjadi $1,523.50/ons, pulih dari pelemahan di hari Kamis (23/06) terkait penguatan USD. National Australia Bank telah merevisi perkiraan spot emas untuk kuartal dua tahun 2011 menjadi rata-rata $1,497 dari perkiraan di bulan Mei di $1,450, sementara untuk kuartal ketiga meningkat menjadi $1,467 dari $1,450 di bulan Mei. NAB meningkatkan fokus pada pasar komoditi akibat adanya kemungkinan kegagalan masalah hutang Yunani. Bank tidak merubah perkiraannya  dan masih memprediksi mengenai merosotnya harga dua tahun mendatang. “Diperkirakan harga akan sedikit menurun selama periode ini, permintaan diperkirakan akan terus meningkat bersamaan dengan stabilnya akumulasi oleh bank sentral dan melonjaknya permintaan untuk perhiasan terkait meningkatnya pendapatan di Cina dan India,” katanya.

EUR/USD
Euro Bersiap Turun 3 Kali Pekan Ini

Euro telah bersiap untuk mengalami kejatuhan sebanyak 3 kali dalam seminggu terhadap dollar AS, pelemahan terlamanya dalam 4 bulan, sebelum para pimpinan Uni Eropa akan mencapai kesepatakan di Brussels hari ini terkait pendanaan hutang untuk Yunani. “Dalam perkiraan selama 6 bulan saya melihat level-level penurunan pada Euro”, dikatakan Michael McCarthy, seorang pimpinan market strategist dari CMC Markets. “Untuk situasi Yunani, salah satu masalah untuk pasar bahwa pemecahan masalah akan berlangsung beberapa bulan dan tahun untuk dilakukan”. Euro diperdagangkan di level $1.4263 di Tokyo dari sebelumnya $1.4256 di New York kemarin, bersiap untuk menyambut kejatuhannya 0.3% dalam mingguannya. Mata uang tersebut sempat berada di 114.680 Yen dari sebelumnya 114.78 Yen. Dollar As berada di level 80.54 Yen dari sebelumnya 80.51 Yen, bersiap untuk kenaikan 0.6% minggu ini.

HANGSENG
Bursa Hong Kong Naik; Debut Prada Positif

Bursa saham Hong Kong naik pada awal perdagangan hari Jumat, dengan saham penerbangan yang naik tajam mengikuti aksi jual kontrak minyak mentah semalam, dan saham Prada spA mendapat penguatan dalam perdagangan perdananya. Indeks Hang Seng melaju 0.5% ke 21,876.99, sementara indeks Hang Seng Cina naik 1.1% ke level 12,196.00. Sentimen secara umum tertolong oleh berita kesepakatan bantuan untuk Yunani, tetapi saham penerbangan masih bertahan kuat, reli akibat dari anjloknya harga minyak mentah. China Eastern Airlines Corp menguat 4.4%, Air China Ltd naik 4.2% dan Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd bertambah 1.8%. Prada bergerak naik di perdagangan perdananya, naik 0.3% walau saham tersebut telah diperdagangkan melemah di luar bursa menjelang peluncurannya. Sementara indeks Shanghai sendiri naik 0.1% di awal perdagangan.

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Dow, S&P Akhiri Penurunan Beruntun


Sabtu, 18 Juni 2011 04:32 WIB
TODAY’S ANALYSIS STOCK INDEX

Dow dan S&P ditutup naik ditengah sesi perdagangan yang sepi di hari Jumat, mengakhiri penurunan selama 6 pekan berturut-turut, terdorong oleh berita semakin dekatnya bailout untuk Yunani. Namun penurunan pada sektor teknologi menekan Nasdaq turun. “Menurutku penurunan sebesar 7% belum menjadi penentuan, ini adalah waktu yang sulit untuk melakukan trading,” ucap Randy Frederick direktur Trading dan Derivatives pada Charles Schwab. ““Di kuartal ketiga dan keempat, akan ada rebounf,” ucapnya. “Ketika QE2 berakhir, butuh beberapa minggu bagi investor untuk kembali optimis pada pasar dan bagis pasar untuk berbalik naik. Jika pasar dapat mempertahankan level saat ini, itu akan memberikan optimisme untuk berdiri sendiri.”

Merkel dan Sarkozy mengatakan mereka ebrsatu mendukung paket bantuan baru untuk Yunani yang akan mengikutsertakan sektor swasta dalam basis yang disebut “Vienna Initiative.” Berita data setelah Perdana Menteri Yunani menunjuk Evangelos Venizelos sebagai Menteri Keuangan menggantikan George Papaconstantinou. Sementara itu, Moody’s mengatakan sedang mengawasi Italia atas kemungkinan downgrade peringkat hutang, mengingat lemahnya struktural dan kemungkinan naiknya suku bunga.
***EnglishVersion***

Dow, S & P End losing streak

Saturday, June 18, 2011 4:32 pm

TODAY’S STOCK INDEX ANALYSIS
Dow and S & P closed up amid a quiet trading session on Friday, ending a decline for 6 weeks in a row, driven by news of the approach of a bailout for Greece. But the decline in the Nasdaq hit the tech sector down. “I think a decrease of 7% has not been a determination, this was a difficult time to make trades,” said Randy Frederick director of Trading and Derivatives at Charles Schwab. “” In the third and fourth quarters, there will be rebounf, “he said.” When the QE2 ends , it took several weeks for investors to re-optimistic on the market and the market to rebound Bagis. If the market can sustain current levels, it will give optimism to stand alone. ”
Merkel and Sarkozy said they ebrsatu supports new aid package for Greece that will engage the private sector in the base of the so-called “Vienna Initiative.” News of data after the Greek Prime Minister Evangelos Venizelos appointed as Minister of Finance to replace George Papaconstantinou. Meanwhile, Moody’s said it was watching the Italian for possible downgrade the debt ratings, given the structural weakness and the possibility of rising interest rates.


Commodity Update


Pertumbuhan Ekonomi AS Melambat; Tingkat Harga Melambung

Perekonomian AS sedang menghadapi masalah akibat kenaikan harga dan lemahnya pertumbuhan. Inflasi di AS saat ini naik ke level tertinggi dalam hampir selama 3 tahun di bulan Mei, sementara aktivitas manufaktur regional berkontraksi bulan ini, menurut laporan hari Rabu. Konsumen di AS lega setelah harga bensin mulai turun, membantu perekonomian pulih dari suramnya data belakangan ini. Namun dalam tren yang dapat menyulitkan pejabat di Federal Reserve, Dep. Tenaga Kerja mengatakan indeks harga konsumen diluar makanan
dan energi naik 0.3%. Itu merupakan kenaikan terbesar sejak Juli 2008, kendati sebagian kenaikan disebabkan oleh gangguan suplai akibat gempa bumi Jepang yang mendorong harga otomotif naik tajam. Laporan terposah menunjukkan penurunan tajam pada aktivitas manufaktur di negara bagian New York dan penurunan 0.1% pada output industri bulan Mei, kendati sebagian disebabkan oleh penurunan pada utilitas terkait udara dingin.

Emas Kian Diminati

Emas naik pada hari Rabu akibat aksi beli safe-haven yang dipicu oleh penurunan tajam pada bursa saham ditengah kecemasan melambatnya perekonomian AS dan tanda bawa krisis hutang di Yunani dapat meningkat.
Investor beralih kepada emas setelah indeks harga konsumen AS mencetak kenaikan terbesar dalam hampir selama 4 tahun dan dan sektor manufaktur regional berkontraksi bulan ini, juga akibat ketidakpastian mengenai diskusi tentang batas hutang AS. “Emas adalah tempat bergantung saat ini ketika bursa saham, minyak mentah dan komoditas lainnya melemah,” ucap Robert Lutts, kepala bagian invetasi di Cabot Money Management. Emas sempat turun pada awal sesi, didera oleh aksi jual dan penguatan dollar akibat krisis hutang Eropa yang memburuk.

Penguatan Dollar Tekan Minyak

Minyak turun lebih dari 4% pada hari Rabu, seiring tanda pelemahan ekonomi lanjutan yang meningkatkan kecemasan permintaan dan juga tertekan oleh penguatan dollar, memicu order sellstop dan mendorong minyak mentah turun ke level terendah sejak bulan Februari. Minyak mentah melemah pasca data menunjukkan kenaikan pada inflasi inti dan sektor manufaktur di New York
berkontraksi. Aksi jual kian intens setelah menembus ke bawah MA150 dan support kunci pada $95, dan menghapus sedikit gain pada minyak mentah akibat
penurunan tajam pada suplai minyak mentah AS. “Investor terburu-buru untuk keluar. Pasar dinilai terlalu tinggi saat ini, minyak brent terus menggelembung, dan gelembung itu pecah hari ini,” ucap Tim Evans, analis energi pada Citi Futures Perspective.

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U.S. Economic Growth Slows; Exchange Rates Soar

The U.S. economy is facing problems due to rising prices and weak growth. Inflation in the U.S. today rose to its highest level in nearly 3 years in May, while the regional manufacturing activity contracted this month, according to reports Wednesday. Consumers in the U.S. relief after gasoline prices began to fall, helping the economy recover from data gloomy lately. But in a trend that could complicate the Federal Reserve officials, Dep. Labor said its index of consumer prices outside of food and energy rose 0.3%. It was the biggest gain since July 2008, although some of the increase due to supply disruptions caused by earthquakes Japanese automotive drive prices up sharply. Terposah report showed a sharp decline in manufacturing activity in New York state and 0.1% decline in industrial output in May, although partly due to a decrease in cold-related utilities.

Gold More Wanted

Gold rose on Wednesday due to safe-haven buying triggered by a sharp decline in stock markets amid concern a slowing U.S. economy and signs carry the debt crisis in Greece can be increased. Investors turn to gold after the U.S. consumer price index scored the biggest gain in nearly four years and the regional manufacturing sector contracted this month, also due to uncertainty regarding the discussion about the U.S. debt limit. “Gold is where the current depends when the stock market, crude oil and other commodities lower,” said Robert Lutts, chief invetasi at Cabot Money Management. Gold was down early in the session, chastened by the strengthening dollar selloff and Europe due to the worsening debt crisis.

Strengthening Dollar Oil Press

Oil fell more than 4% on Wednesday, as a sign of continued economic weakness that increase anxiety and demand also pressured by the strengthening dollar, triggering orders sellstop and pushed crude oil fell to its lowest level since February. Crude oil fell after data showed a rise in core inflation and the manufacturing sector contracted in New York. Increasingly intense sell-off after breaking down the MA150 and the key support at $ 95, and removing a bit of gain on crude oil due to a sharp drop in U.S. crude supplies. “Investors rush to exit. The market is overvalued at this time, Brent oil continued to bubble, and bubbles burst today,” said Tim Evans, energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective.


News Update Stock Index


 

Pengetatan Cina Grogoti Performa Asia

 

Berlanjutnya pengetatan Cina berhasil kurangi reli bursa saham Asia meski data AS sinyalkan berlanjutnya pemulihan ekonomi. Indeks saham Hong Kong dan Cina melemah seiring terpukulnya sektor perbankan setelah Beijing naikan giro wajib minimum keenam kalinya untuk tahun 2011. Hang Seng turun 0,7%, terjebak di antara Moving Average 250 dan leveln rendah 2011 seiring investor terus alokasikan dana ke sektor defensif seperti utilitas. Nikkei menguat 0,3%, dibantu oleh sentimen positif setelah data tunjukan penjualan ritel AS tidak
turun seburuk perkiraan analis. Meski demikian, volume perdagangan tetap rendah yang sinyalkan masih belum yakin-nya investor atas prospek ekonomi
global. Honda Motor melejit 2%, perpanjang rebound setelah sentuh level rendah dua bulan pada perdagangan Selasa. Meski Honda prediksi laba operasional tahunan akan turun 65%, namun investor menganggap prospek perusahaan terlalu konservatif dan pasar telah antisipasi berita buruk tersebut. Hino Motors melonjak 4,4% setelah produsen truk ini laporkan laba perusahaan akan mencapai ¥35 miliar akibat pulihnya permintaan truk dan bis di domestik
serta meningkatnya permintaan di negara-negara berkembang.

 

Wall Street Turun Tajam, Dow Anjlok 1.5%

 

Saham AS turun tajam pada hari Rabu seiring dollar yang melonjak akibat kecemasan memburuknya situasi hutang di Yunani dan setelah sejumlah data
ekonomi yang buruk. “Saham nampaknya akan turun lebih dalam hingga akhir tahun,” menurut David Levy, direktur dan kepala Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, menambahkan bahwa saham masih belum menilai “dampak nyata” dari situasi hutang di Eropa atau perlambatan yang berkelanjutan. Saham anjlok ditengah meningkatnya konflik pada situasi hutang di Yunani, setelah pejabat zona Eropa gagal untuk mencapai kesepakatan mengenai bantuan Yunani. Ribuan pengunjuk rasa berkumpul di Athena untuk memprotes kebijakan pengetatan dari pemerintah guna menghindari kebangkrutan. Menteri Keuangan zona Eropa akan bertemu kembali pekan depan, mencoba mencapai kesepakatan. Sementara itu Moody’s memperingatkan kemungkinan mendowngrade 2 bank Portugal ditengah kecemasan pendanaan. Sebelumnya, Moody’s juga memperingatkan 3 bank terbesar di Perancis, mengingat keterkaitannya dengan krisis hutang di Yunani. Turut menambah tekanan turun hari ini adalah laporan aktivitas sektor manufaktur di New York yang diluar dugaan berkontraksi di bulan Juni dan juga sentimen developer rumah yang turun tajam ke level terendah sejak September 2010.

 

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China tightening biting Asian Performance

The continued tightening China managed to cut Asian stock markets rally despite U.S. data sinyalkan continuing economic recovery. Hong Kong stock index and the Chinese banking sector is weaker as blow after Beijing Raise the minimum reserve requirement for the sixth time in 2011. The Hang Seng fell 0.7%, caught between the moving average 250 and lower leveln 2011 as investors continue to allocate funds to defensive sectors like utilities. Nikkei up 0.3%, helped by positive sentiment after U.S. retail sales data show does not go down as bad as analysts expected. However, trading volumes remain low sinyalkan still not convinced its investors over the global economic outlook. Honda Motor soared 2%, extend rebound after two months touch a low level in trading Tuesday. Although Honda’s annual operating profit forecast to fall 65%, but investors consider the company’s prospects are too conservative and the market had anticipated the bad news. Hino Motors jumped 4.4% after this truck manufacturers report profits will reach ¥ 35 billion due to recovery in demand for trucks and buses in the domestic as well as rising demand in developing countries.

Wall Street Down Sharply, Dow’s sales drop 1.5%

U.S. stocks fell sharply on Wednesday as the dollar due to soaring anxiety worsening debt situation in Greece and after a number of bad economic data. “Stocks will likely fall even further until the end of the year,” according to David Levy, director and head of the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, adding that the stock is still not considered “real impact” of the debt situation in Europe or the ongoing slowdown. Shares plunged amid increasing tensions on the debt situation in Greece, after the European zone officials failed to reach agreement on aid Greece. Thousands of protesters gathered in Athens to protest the tightening of government policy in order to avoid bankruptcy. Euro-zone finance ministers will meet again next week, trying to reach an agreement. Meanwhile, Moody’s warned of a possible downgrade amid concerns Portugal 2 bank funding. Previously, Moody’s also warned the three largest banks in France, given its association with the debt crisis in Greece. Also adding downward pressure today is a report of activity in New York manufacturing sector which unexpected contraction in June and also houses the developer sentiment fell sharply to its lowest level since September 2010.