Becoming Sophisticated About Risk

Posts tagged “Central bank

FOREX: US Dollar to Rise if Bernanke Testimony Sinks QE3 Hopes


FOREX: US Dollar to Rise if Bernanke Testimony Sinks QE3 Hopes

By Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist

13 July 2011 06:48 GMT

Talking Points

  • NZ Dollar Leads Risk-Linked Currencies Higher as Stocks Rise
  • Chinese GDP Data Cools Rate Hike Fears, But Not for Long
  • Traders Turn Spotlight on Bernanke’s Testimony on QE Hopes
  • UK Jobless Claims to Cement Dovish Bank of England Outlook

The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in overnight trade as Asian stock exchanges rebounded after yesterday’s selloff, boosting sentiment-linked currencies. The Australian and Canadian Dollars likewise yielded considerable gains. Needless to say, safe-haven currencies came under pressure, with the Japanese Yen suffering outsized losses while the Swiss Franc and US Dollar also suffered, though the greenback held up best among the three.

The MSCI Asia Pacific regional equity index rose 0.6 percent after minutes from June’s Federal Reserve policy meeting revealed policymakers were divided about additional stimulus to bolster growth if economic recovery remains anemic, offering a sliver of hope for those worried about looming global slowdown in that a third round of quantitative easing (known as “QE3”) has not been ruled out outright. China’s Gross Domestic Product reading offered additional support, showing output grew at an annual pace of 9.5 percent in the second quarter, slowing from 9.7 percent in the three months through March. The outcome stoked speculation that slowing growth will delay further interest rate hikes.

However, the figures’ supportive powers seem decidedly limited. Indeed, the timelier Retail Sales and Industrial Production readings came in dramatically above economists’ forecasts, the former yielding the strongest increase since January while the latter returned the highest print in 13 months. Taken against a backdrop of soaring inflation as well as buoyant money supply and loan growth, the case for further tightening is remains a very compelling one, with fears of

Looking ahead, the spotlight turns on the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke as he delivers his semi-annual testimony on monetary policy to the US House of Representatives. While the central bank chief’s prepared remarks are likely to toe a familiar line, traders will pay close attention to clues about the likelihood of further stimulus in his response to lawmakers’ questions. A strong statement squashing budding hopes for QE3 (at least for now) would stoke worries of broad-based slowdown in the second half of the year, weighing on risk appetite and spurring demand for safe-haven currencies anew.

On the data front, UK Jobless Claims figures headline the docket, with consensus forecasts calling for a fourth consecutive monthly increase to put overall applications for unemployment benefits at the highest level since April 2010. The result promises to cement expectations that the Bank of England will hold off from interest rate hikes in the near term, keeping a firm lid on the British Pound.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT CCY EVENT ACT EXP PREV
0:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (JUL) -8.3% -2.6%
0:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (JUL) 92.8 101.2
2:00 CNY Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (JUN) 14.3% 13.9% 14.0%
2:00 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN) 15.1% 13.1% 13.3%
2:00 CNY Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD (YoY) (JUN) 25.6% 25.7% 25.8%
2:00 CNY Real GDP YTD (YoY) (2Q) 9.6% 9.5% 9.7%
2:00 CNY Real GDP (QoQ) (2Q) 2.2% 2.1%
2:00 CNY Real GDP (YoY) (2Q) 9.5% 9.3% 9.7%
2:00 CNY Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (JUN) 16.8% 16.7% 16.6%
2:00 CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN) 17.7% 17.0% 16.9%
4:30 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (MAY F) 6.2% 5.7%
4:30 JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY F) -5.5% -5.9%
4:30 JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (MAY) 12.8% -1.1%
5:00 JPY Bank of Japan Monthly Economic Report (MAY)

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT CCY EVENT EXP PREV IMPACT
6:00 EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (JUN) -0.2% 0.0% Low
6:00 EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (JUN) 8.8% 8.9% Low
7:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (JUN) -0.3% -0.2% Low
7:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (JUN) -0.3% -0.4% Low
8:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change (JUN) 15.0K 19.6K High
8:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (MAY) 7.7% 7.7% High
8:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate (JUN) 4.7% 4.6% Medium
8:30 GBP Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY (MAY) 2.1% 1.8% Medium
8:30 GBP Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/YoY (MAY) 2.0% 2.0% Low
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Indus Production w.d.a. (YoY) (MAY) 4.8% 5.3% Medium
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Indus Production s.a. (MoM) (MAY) 0.4% 0.2% Low

Critical Levels

CCY SUPPORT RESISTANCE
EURUSD 1.3855 1.4080
GBPUSD 1.5813 1.6049

Gold Approaches Key Support Shift in Appetite to Risk Further Losses


Gold

Gold/USD • NY Spot Close 1487.14

Gold Approaches Key Support- Shift in Appetite to Risk Further Losses

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Bearish

  • Gold Could Fall off a Cliff
  • Gold Price Hurt by Haven Status as Europe Drives Confidence
  • S&P 500 Hints Doubt Bottom, Oil and Gold at Trend-Defining Barriers

With risk appetite returning to markets in full force this week, significant gains in equities coupled with the end of the dollar diluting Fed easing policies are likely to see gold remain on the defensive. This week witnessed gold fall 1.17% on the back of the 2.36% drop seen the previous week. The yellow metal now approaches key support at the 100-day moving average at $1475.

Gold’s inability to climb amid weakness in the dollar may be a pre-curser to further losses moving forward. The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar ) declined more than 1.7% this week as improving risk appetite saw traders jettison the greenback for higher-yielding growth-linked assets. Yet the losses in the dollar and advances in the S&P did not translate into gains for gold, suggesting that there may be a fundamental shift away from the metal as an alternate investment. The breakdown of these key correlations continues to suggest gold me be in a technical correction as traders continue seek riskier assets.

With central banks like the ECB now gearing up to raise interest rates in an attempt to combat higher food and energy costs, the long gold anti-inflationary play will begin to lose its luster as sluggish wage growth and higher rates give rise to deflationary concerns. As appetite continues to pick up, gold becomes less of an attractive asset for traders seeking to maximize exposure to higher yielding investments.

However in light of the recent rally seen in equities, one would expect some consolidation ahead of next week’s jam packed global economic docket with rate decisions from the ECB, BOE, and the RBA on tap. The week closes with Friday’s highly anticipated non-farm payroll figures with estimates calling for a read of just 100K after last month’s dismal print of just 54K. If data next week upsets the recent shift in risk sentiment, gold could pair some of the losses seen this week as traders flock to haven assets. However, with central banks moving to curb inflation and interest rates seen on the rise, the metal should remain well anchored with risk weighted to the downside.

A Fibonacci extension taken from the all-time highs on May 2 nd and the June 22 nd peak reveals downside targets below the 100-day moving average at 76.4% extension at 1468, followed by the convergence of the 100% extension and trendline support dating back to July 28 th 2010 at $1440. If the 100-day moving average holds, a rebound sees topside targets at the 50% Fib extension just shy of the $1500 level, backed by $1530.- MB

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
01 July 2011 22:59 GMT


Gold Approaches Key Support Shift in Appetite to Risk Further Losses


Gold

Gold/USD • NY Spot Close 1487.14

Gold_Approaches_Key_Support_Shift_in_Appetite_to_Risk_Further_Losses__body_xauusd_risk.png, Gold Approaches Key Support- Shift in Appetite to Risk Further Losses Gold Approaches Key Support– Shift in Appetite to Risk Further Losses

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Bearish

  • Gold Could Fall off a Cliff
  • Gold Price Hurt by Haven Status as Europe Drives Confidence
  • S&P 500 Hints Doubt Bottom, Oil and Gold at Trend-Defining Barriers

With risk appetite returning to markets in full force this week, significant gains in equities coupled with the end of the dollar diluting Fed easing policies are likely to see gold remain on the defensive. This week witnessed gold fall 1.17% on the back of the 2.36% drop seen the previous week. The yellow metal now approaches key support at the 100-day moving average at $1475.

Gold’s inability to climb amid weakness in the dollar may be a pre-curser to further losses moving forward. The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar ) declined more than 1.7% this week as improving risk appetite saw traders jettison the greenback for higher-yielding growth-linked assets. Yet the losses in the dollar and advances in the S&P did not translate into gains for gold, suggesting that there may be a fundamental shift away from the metal as an alternate investment. The breakdown of these key correlations continues to suggest gold me be in a technical correction as traders continue seek riskier assets.

With central banks like the ECB now gearing up to raise interest rates in an attempt to combat higher food and energy costs, the long gold anti-inflationary play will begin to lose its luster as sluggish wage growth and higher rates give rise to deflationary concerns. As appetite continues to pick up, gold becomes less of an attractive asset for traders seeking to maximize exposure to higher yielding investments.

However in light of the recent rally seen in equities, one would expect some consolidation ahead of next week’s jam packed global economic docket with rate decisions from the ECB, BOE, and the RBA on tap. The week closes with Friday’s highly anticipated non-farm payroll figures with estimates calling for a read of just 100K after last month’s dismal print of just 54K. If data next week upsets the recent shift in risk sentiment, gold could pair some of the losses seen this week as traders flock to haven assets. However, with central banks moving to curb inflation and interest rates seen on the rise, the metal should remain well anchored with risk weighted to the downside.

A Fibonacci extension taken from the all-time highs on May 2 nd and the June 22 nd peak reveals downside targets below the 100-day moving average at 76.4% extension at 1468, followed by the convergence of the 100% extension and trendline support dating back to July 28 th 2010 at $1440. If the 100-day moving average holds, a rebound sees topside targets at the 50% Fib extension just shy of the $1500 level, backed by $1530.- MB

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
01 July 2011 22:59 GMT


Weekly Market Outlook 20 – 25 Juni 2011


Market Outlook 20 – 25 Juni 2011

15 dari 23 pedagang, investor, dan analis yang disurvei oleh Bloomberg mengatakan Komoditi Emas akan naik minggu ini. Komoditi Emas naik sebesar 7,5% tahun ini, mencapai harga tertingginya di $1,577.60/troy ounce pada tanggal 2 Mei 2011, karena investor mencari logam mulia sebagai perlindungan kekayaan terhadap kenaikan inflasi dan penurunan nilai mata uang.
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) pada 21 Juni 2011 pukul 08:30 WIB akan membahas kondisi ekonomi yang mempengaruhi keputusan mereka dalam menentukan tingkat suku bunga kedepan. Hasil yang positif akan men-support Aussie.

German ZEW Economic Sentiment dan German Ifo Business Climate Level indeks gabungan berdasarkan survei investor dan analis institusi Jerman, dan Level indeks gabungan terhadap manufaktur, bangunan, grosir dan pengecer. Laporan keduanya bulan ini di prediksi mengalami penurunan.

Existing Home Sales Jumlah bangunan yang terjual per tahun kecuali konstruksi yang baru di Amerika Serikat diprediksi akan mengalami penurunan, sebesar 4.83M, dari 5.05M. Apabila pada 21 Juni 2011 di rilis di bawah 4.83M, maka akan berdampak negatif bagi Dollar.

Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting minutes, Bank of England (BOE) Pada tgl 22 Juni 2011 akan mengadakan pertemuan mengenai kebijakan moneter, yang mempengaruhi keputusan mereka dalam menentukan tingkat suku bunga kedepan. Hasil yang positif akan menguntungkan Sterling.

FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) Statement Bank sentral Amerika Serikat pada tgl 22 Juni 2011 akan menyampaikan pernyataannya mengenai ekonomi Amerika, di barengi dengan penetapan tingkat suku bunga  pada Federal Funds Rate. dilanjutkan dengan FOMC Press Conference. Diprediksi The Fed tetap mempertahankan tingkat suku bunga di bawah 0.25%.

Inflation Report Hearings, Gubernur BOE (Bank of England) dan beberapa anggota MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) Pada tanggal 23 Juni 2011 akan menyampaikan testimoni mengenai inflasi. Pernyataan yang optomistik akan berdampak positif bagi Poundsterling.

New Home Sales. 

Jumlah rumah baru yang terjual di Amerika Serikat yang akan di rilis pada tgl 23 Juni 2011, di prediksi mengalami penurunan tipis, sebesar 311.000, dari 323.000. Apabila di rilis di bawah 311.000 maka akan berdampak negatif bagi Dollar.

BOE (Bank of England) Gov King Speaks, Gubernur Bank of England – Mervyn King Akan menyampaikan pidatonya pada 24 Juni 2011 pukul 16:30 WIB mengenai kebijakan moneter Inggris. Pernyataan yang optimistik akan menguntungkan Poundsterling.

Untuk indikator ekonomi global pada minggu ini tidak banyak rilis data ekonomi global yang penting, namun pengumuman suku bunga the Fed pada Rabu malam nanti akan jadi perhatian besar pasar, walau kemungkinan masih akan bertahan rate-nya. Secara umum agenda rilis data ekonomi yang kiranya perlu diperhatikan investor minggu ini, adalah:

Dari kawasan Amerika: Berupa rilis data Existing Home Sales pada Selasa malam; kemudian pengumuman Federal Funds Rate yang keumungkinan besar bertahan di level 0.25% pada Rabu tengah malam; berlanjut dengan rilis New Home Sales serta rilis tenaga kerja Unemployment Claims mingguan yang biasa menjadi perhatian pasar pada Kamis malam; terakhir adalah Core Durable Goods Orders pada Jumat malam.

o Dari kawasan Inggris dan Eropa: berupa pengumuman German ZEW Economic Sentiment pada Selasa sore; serta German Ifo Business Climate di waktu Jumat petang.

Minggu lalu di Pasar Forex Nilai tukar mata uang dollar mengalami penguatan secara umum lebih di akibatkan melemahnya mata uang Euro di minggu yang kedua, di tengah menguatirkannya situasi menuju ‘default’ untuk Yunani.

Index dollar terpantau naik ke level 75.445 dari yang pernah di 73’an.
Minggu yang lalu Euro terus melemah di minggu yang kedua oleh situasi makin terkungkungnya perekonomian Yunani, yang kemudian rebound di akhir minggu dengan EUR/USD bertengger di level 1.4305. Untuk minggu ini market range-nya akan berada antara resistance pada 1.4690 dan 1.4940, sedangkan level support di 1.4253 dan kemudian pada 1.3970.

Poundsterling Pada minggu lalu juga terkoreksi terhadap dollar, walau tidak setajam Euro, dan berakhir di level 1.6177. Untuk minggu ini, level Resistance terdekat pada 1.6548 dan kemudian 1.6747, sedangkan Support kalau tembus 1.6059 akan berada pada 1.5932 dan kemudian 1.5752.
Untuk USD/JPY Secara umum minggu lalu melemah terbatas dan ditutup di 80.01, pasar di minggu ini berada di antara Resistance pada 82.27 dan 85.59, serta Support level pada 78.82.

Sementara itu Aussie dollar terpantau seminggu lewat menguat terbatas yang berakhir di 1.0617. Range minggu ini masih di antara resistance 1.0887 dan 1.10 sementara support level di 1.0440 dan 1.0288.

Untuk pasar di Stock Index Futures pada minggu lalu di regional Asia masih terus melorot di minggunya yang ketujuh secara umum, tertekan oleh kekuatiran akan sentiment situasi ekonomi di Yunani dan Eropa.

Indeks Nikkei sementara ini masih tetap konsolidasi, berakhir di 9375. Rentang pasar saat ini antara level resistance di 10300 dan kemudian ke level 10875, serta support pada level 9360 dan lalu 8370. Sementara itu,
Indeks Hangseng Berjangka di Hongkong minggu lalu ditutup melemah tajam ke level 21609. Minggu ini masih berada dalam range level resistance di 22617 dan berikutnya 23785, sementara support-nya di 21026 serta 20250.

Bursa saham Wall Street minggu lalu masih sempat melemah namun rebound di akhir pekannya untuk menahan lanjutan pelemahan terpanjang sejak 2008, diwarnai dengan concern global terhadap ancaman resesi baru dunia.

Dow Jones Industrial berakhir di level 12004.30; saat ini dalam range resistance terdekat level 12573 dan kemudian 12876, sementara support di level 11566 dan pada 10950.

Index S&P 500 minggu lalu naik sedikit naik ke level 1271.50. Berikutnya, maka market range-nya akan berada di antara resistance level 1296 dan 1345, sementara level support berada di 1250 dan 1170.

Untuk Pasar Emas Minggu lalu terpantau menanjak terbatas di tengah munculnya kekuatiran ancaman resesi atas perekonomian global, dan berakhir di $1538.45/troy ounce, sesuai presdiksi sebelumnya. Untuk minggu ini Emas di perkirakan dengan bertahap masih berpeluang menguat kembali oleh kenaikan demand dan safe haven, dengan rentang berada antara Resistance pada $1574 dan $1580, sementara Support ada di $1460 serta berikut $1410/troy ounce. Di Indonesia, harga emas terpantau sedikit menguat di tengah terkoreksinya rupiah, ditutup di akhir pekan pada Rp 424,600

Posted with WordPress for BlackBerry.


Emas Masih Bullish


gold is still Bullish

Jumat, 10 Juni 2011 15:55 WIB
TODAY’S ANALYSIS COMMODITY

Emas mash bertahan dekat level tinggi 5 minggu akibat kecemasan krisis utang zona-euro dan melambatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tingkatkan permintaan logam mulia sebagai instrumen investasi alternatif. ECB kemarin isyaratkan kenaikan suku bunga di bulan Juli meski tingginya biaya pinjaman dapat perburuk krisis yang ancam default Yunani.

“Sepertinya tidak ada jalan keluar dari krisis utang Eropa. Emas masih bullish,” papar Bruce Ikemizu, pimpinan trader komoditas di Standard Bank. “Namun, emas mungkin terperangkap di kisaran 1530 – 1550 seiring pembelian fisik menunggu harga turun di bawah 1530 untuk kembali memborong logam mulia.”  “Emas dalam fase konsolidasi,” ungkap Hou Xinqiang, analis Jinrui Futures.

Investor juga nantikan isyarat Federal Reserve setelah program pembelian obligasi $600 milyar berakhir bulan ini. Fed Beige Book yang dirilis minggu ini melihat masih berlanjutnya pemulihan meski terlihat perlambatan di 4 dari 12 wilayah Fed. Ini tentunya tegaskan alasan Fed’s Bernanke untuk pertahankan stimulus demi topang pemulihan.

 

****

Friday, June 10, 2011 15:55 pm
TODAY’S COMMODITY ANALYSIS

Gold remained near 5 weeks due to high levels of anxiety-euro zone debt crisis and slowing economic growth boost demand for precious metals as an alternative investment instrument. The ECB yesterday suggests rate hike in July despite higher borrowing costs could worsen the crisis which threatened Greek default.

“It seems there is no way out of the debt crisis of Europe. Gold is still bullish,” said Bruce Ikemizu, head of commodities trader at Standard Bank. “However, gold may be trapped in the range 1530 – 1550 in line waiting for the physical purchase price fell below 1530 for the re-buy the precious metal.” “Gold in the consolidation phase,” said Hou Xinqiang, an analyst at Jinrui Futures.

Investors are also looking forward to sign the Federal Reserve after the bond purchase program $ 600 billion ends this month. Fed’s Beige Book, released this week to see the continued recovery despite the slowdown seen in 4 of the 12 Fed regions. It certainly reiterate the reasons the Fed’s Bernanke to maintain the stimulus for the sake of sustaining the recovery.


Market Review Eropa


Market Review Eropa :

Dollar AS masih terpuruk akibat ekspektasi Federal Reserve akan pertahankan program pembelian aset di saat bank sentral negara maju lainnya, seperti ECB, bersiap naikkan suku bunga demi redam inflasi. Minyak dan Emas lanjutkan reli seiring berkepanjangannya kerusuhan di Afrika Utara dan Timur Tengah. Laporan Cina akan dirikan lembaga investasi untuk diversifikasi cadangan devisa makin perlemah dollar dan tangguhkan komoditas. Indeks futures AS naik akibat optimisme bagusnya laporan keuangan seiring berlanjutnya pemulihan ekonomi. Investor kini nantikan data penjualan rumah AS yang akan dirilis pukul 21.00 WIB

Posted with WordPress for BlackBerry.