Becoming Sophisticated About Risk

Posts tagged “Australian dollar

More of the Same Panic and Fear; Gold Rallies to Yet Another Record High


By Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist

11 August 2011 02:54 GMT

Markets are once again back under pressure after Tuesday’s equity market gains were entirely wiped out (9th worst point drop on record for Dow). Fear and panic remain firmly in control, and gold prices continue to soar to record highs beyond $1800. The US Dollar has been a major beneficiary of the safe haven liquidation, while the Franc and Yen are also incredibly well bid. Meanwhile, the higher yielding commodity bloc has been decimated, and the Australian Dollar has led the declines. A weaker batch of employment data out of Australia has not helped the antipodean’s cause, with the unemployment rate rising to 5.1% and coming in well above the 4.9% expectation.

Elsewhere, contagion fears in Europe have picked up, with market participants seriously worrying about the ability for the Eurozone economy to recover from what appears to be a very deep and messy crisis. The attention has shifted to Italy, with the country’s banking sector falling apart, while France’s credit worthiness is also in the spotlight following the S&P downgrade of US ratings. Any additional deterioration in the Eurozone could seriously compromise the credibility of the EFSF. Looking ahead, the economic calendar for the remainder of the day is mostly second tier, and markets should continue to trade off of the broader global macro themes and developments.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Opening_Comment_body_Picture_5.png, More of the Same Panic and Fear; Gold Rallies to Yet Another Record High

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

Opening_Comment_body_eur.png, More of the Same Panic and Fear; Gold Rallies to Yet Another Record High

EUR/USD: The market continues to adhere to a bearish sequence of lower tops since May, with a fresh lower top now in place by 1.4535 ahead of the next downside extension back towards and eventually below 1.4000. In the interim, look for any intraday rallies to be well capped ahead of 1.4400, while only back above 1.4500 delays.

Opening_Comment_body_yen.png, More of the Same Panic and Fear; Gold Rallies to Yet Another Record High

USD/JPY: Setbacks have stalled out just ahead of the 76.25 record lows from March, with the market dropping to 76.30 ahead of the latest reversal. Given that we are seeing the rate by record lows, we would not at all be surprised to see the formation of a material base in favor of significant upside back towards the 82.00 area over the coming sessions. However, the overall structure still remains bearish and it will take a break back above 80.00 to officially alleviate downside pressures and confirm reversal prospects. Below 76.25 negates.

Opening_Comment_body_gbp.png, More of the Same Panic and Fear; Gold Rallies to Yet Another Record High

GBP/USD: The market remains locked in a broader downtrend off of the April highs, and a fresh lower top is now sought out somewhere ahead of 1.6550 in favor of the next downside extension back towards the recent range lows at 1.5780. Ultimately, only a break back above 1.6550 would delay bearish outlook and give reason for pause, while back under the 200-Day SMA at 1.6085 should accelerate declines.

Opening_Comment_body_chf.png, More of the Same Panic and Fear; Gold Rallies to Yet Another Record High

USD/CHF: Despite the intense downtrend resulting in recently established fresh record lows by 0.7000, short/medium/longer-term technical studies are violently stretched, and we continue to like the idea of taking shots at buying in anticipation of a major base. Still, at this point, fading this trend will require some upside confirmation and we would look for a break and close back above 0.7350 at a minimum to open the door for these reversal prospects and alleviate immediate downside pressures.

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist


Market Review Eropa


Market Review Eropa

Euro, Aussie dollar serta mata uang berisiko anjlok ditengah pengalihan resiko akibat ketidakpastian global dihantui downgrade S&P pada rating kredit AS sehingga memicu arus modal ke mata uang Swiss Franc dan Yen Jepang. Sementara bursa saham Eropa bertahan di teritori negatif, Emas meroket sejalan dengan sentimen negatif para investor dibebani downgrade rating kredit AS meskipun ECB mengaktifkan pembelian obligasi Italia & Spanyol.

Posted with WordPress for BlackBerry.


Dollar on Edge with Deficit Deadline, ISM Report Stokes Volatility


Dollar on Edge with Deficit Deadline, ISM Report Stokes Volatility

By John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist

02 August 2011 03:23 GMT
  • Dollar on Edge with Deficit Deadline, ISM Report Stokes Volatility
  • Euro Drawn Between Dollar Volatility, EU Trouble, Upcoming ECB Decision
  • Australian Dollar Readies for RBA Decision as Risk Trends Pick Up
  • British Pound Tumbles with Risk, Helped Along by Manufacturing Contraction
  • Japanese Yen Looking at More Volatility as Intervention Rhetoric Heats Up
  • Swiss Franc Solidifies Gains After Economics Minister Says Strength to Stay
  • Gold Ramps up the Volatility as Market Debates US Financial Rescue Effort

Dollar on Edge with Deficit Deadline, ISM Report Stokes Volatility

Given the volatility the FX and capital markets demonstrated through the close on Friday and the running countdown for the US to surpass the legal limit on its deficit; excitement was guaranteed through for the opening day of the new trading week. Volatility on the dollar-based majors and broader capital markets stepped it up yet again – though direction is still as lacking as ever. Through Monday’s open, the greenback was once again under pressure as risk appetite started off strong. In fact, S&P 500 futures gapped up 1.2 percent on the Asian open from Friday’s close. In contrast, the dollar didn’t produce such a dramatic jump; but it did lose ground through much of the Asian and early European sessions as news that Congressional leaders reached a compromise on the budget deficit that could offer quick relief to tense financial and credit markets. Though, the fact that the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) slipped as a viable debt solution seemed to be in the works should reflect on the skepticism that is still prevalent in the markets.

This cynicism that a debt deal would be pushed through or that it would offer the dollar an immediate boost could have weighed the greenback indefinitely had a wave of risk aversion not leveraged the currency’s battered safe haven appeal. As the day wore on, data from China, Australia, Japan, the Euro Zone and the United Kingdom reflected a slowing in factory activity that seems to be reflecting a downshift in global growth. The concern was nagging; but fear that a serious economic slump could be in the works didn’t really set in until the US ISM manufacturing activity survey for July crossed the wires. The 50.9 reading was a substantial miss (below even the lowest economist forecast from Bloomberg) and threatened the primary source of growth the US economy has drawn from since the recovery was established back in 2009. In turn, the S&P 500 Index would turn a remarkable bullish gap on the open into an eventual 2.5 percent retracement through the first half of the day.

The ISM indicator, along with the other manufacturing readings from the around the world, are an important reminder that economic activity is cooling. The feeble health of the developed world’s consumer is finally meeting the global shift towards austerity (China, Euro Zone, UK). That leaves the US in a unique position: either join the stimulus withdrawal and suffer the economic slowdown; or pursue financial responsibility and potentially turn a slowdown into a double dip recession. This is another layer of complication to the deficit debate at hand. According to the original timeline; the window is supposed to close by the coming session. That said, it seems that the revised two-stage program that has garnered support from Congressional leaders and already passed the House looks to have a good chance of making it all the way through. Yet, it is still under heavy debate as to whether the planned cuts would be enough to prevent a downgrade by the major credit rating agencies. Such an outcome would surely be dollar negative. Though if this effort tips the global economy, there could be a redeeming value to the greenback.

Related:Discuss the Dollar in the DailyFX Forum, John’s Picks: Controlling Risk is Tantamount as Volatility Prevails and Direction Absent

Euro Drawn Between Dollar Volatility, EU Trouble, Upcoming ECB Decision

Fortunately for the euro, headlines about the US deficit debate are still crowding out many of the updates surrounding the Euro Zone’s own troubles. Notable for the day was the fact that the Italian 10 year government bond yield closed at a record high 6.00 percent while the Spanish equivalent advanced to 6.20 percent. Remember, Greece, Ireland and Portugal required bailouts not long after breaching the 7.00 percent level. In the meantime, volatility in risk trends contributed to dramatic losses for European benchmark equity indexes. It will be interesting to see how this combination of funding troubles and the economic slowdown influences the ECB’s decision later this week. Can then keep ignoring it?

Australian Dollar Readies for RBA Decision as Risk Trends Pick Up

We are quickly approaching the RBA rate decision; and rate expectations are somewhat mixed. Looking at overnight index swaps; we see that there is a 16 percent probability of a 25 bps rate cut yet the 12 month forecast is pricing in 27 bps of easing. If we recall the last meeting, Governor Stevens leveraged the importance of CPI; and the 2Q figures a two-and-a-half year high 3.6 percent. Is that enough to make a call?

British Pound Tumbles with Risk, Helped Along by Manufacturing Contraction

It seems much of the world is on the same path of austerity and economic slowdown that the UK pioneered with its self-imposed deficit efforts. Under these circumstances, it isn’t good to be first; because it is exponentially harder to recovery from a slowdown that was ahead of the global curve. We were reminded of this Monday when the UK factory activity reading turned negative for the first time since September 2009.

Japanese Yen Looking at More Volatility as Intervention Rhetoric Heats Up

Talk of Japanese intervention is picking up amongst policy officials, economists and traders. According to Nikkei news group, the central bank is preparing for FX intervention; and an independent move could be quickly followed by a coordinated effort. Should we take these warnings seriously? The short-term impact can certainly generate volatility; but fighting larger trends (like dollar selling) is always a losing game.

Swiss Franc Solidifies Gains After Economic Minister Says Strength to Stay

There are many examples of failed efforts of intervention; but some of the worst results have to fall to the Swiss National Bank which has come under significant scrutiny due to the losses on its reserves fighting the market tide. The futility of this effort seems to be setting in, however, as we had the nation’s Economic Minister warned the high exchange rate is here to stay and it means “extremely tough years” for exporters ahead.

Gold Ramps up the Volatility as Market Debates US Financial Rescue Effort

Like the US dollar and Treasuries, gold put in for an exceptionally volatile session through Monday. Through that same comparison, though, the metal was just as lacking for direction. To stoke capital flows into the metal once again (or away from it should there be palatable deficit resolution); we need an unmistakable view of the United States’ fiscal position: destined for downgrade or slow return to prudence.

**For a full list of upcoming event risk and past releases, go to www.dailyfx.com/calendar

ECONOMIC DATA

Next 24 Hours

GMT Currency Release Survey Previous Comments
1:30 AUD House Price Index (YoY) (Q2) -3.0% -0.2% Lower expected house index may suggest softening real estate sector
1:30 AUD House Price Index (QoQ) (Q2) -1.0% -1.7%
1:30 AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (JUN) 3.0% -7.9% A mild recovery in building recoveries despite prices fall points to future recovery
1:30 AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (JUN) -10.3% -14.4%
1:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (JUN) 0.4% 1.0% Japanese labor market still soft
4:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision 4.75% 4.75% Major event of the day: Q2 CPI came in higher than expected despite record-high AUD; RBA may change their commentary on rate hikes
6:30 AUD RBA Commodity Price Index (JUL) 109.4 Commodities price index may hit new high on record strength of metals
6:30 AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (JUL) 28.2%
7:15 CHF Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (JUN) -4.1% Previous was lowest since March 2009
7:30 CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (JUL) 52.5 53.4 PMI expected to be hurt by strong franc
8:30 GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (JUL) 53.1 53.6 Index may fall due to government cuts
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (JUN) 0.1% -0.2% Index correlated with consumer prices expected to weaken on a long-term basis on slower recovery, demand
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) 5.9% 6.2%
12:30 USD Personal Income (JUN) 0.2% 0.3% Consumption driver of the US economy expected to stay relatively flat as overall economy still weak, uncertain
12:30 USD Personal Spending (JUN) 0.2% 0.0%
12:30 USD Personal Consumption Exp Deflator (YoY) (JUN) 2.5%
12:30 USD Personal Consumption Exp Core (MoM) (JUN) 0.2% 0.3%
12:30 USD Personal Consumption Exp Core (YoY) (JUN) 1.4% 1.2%
21:00 USD Total Vehicle Sales (JUL) 11.85M 11.41M A small pick-up in vehicle sales may be due to beginning of 2nd half purchasing by institutions
21:00 USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (JUL) 9.25M 8.95M
23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (JUL) 2.9% Retail sales index may indicate CPI
23:30 AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (JUL) 48.5 Service sector at post-recession levels
GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (JUL) 0.0% 1.2% House prices watched by BoE may support further lax policies to support economic recovery
GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (JUL) -2.8% -3.5%
GMT Currency Upcoming Events & Speeches
12:30 USD Annual Revisions: Personal Income and Spending

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE – 18:00 GMT

Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist 2 1.5160 1.6600 86.00 0.8900 1.0275 1.1800 0.9020 118.00 146.05
Resist 1 1.5000 1.6475 81.50 0.8550 1.0000 1.1000 0.8750 113.50 140.00
Spot 1.4268 1.6297 77.08 0.7817 0.9561 1.0964 0.8762 109.98 125.62
Support 1 1.4000 1.5935 77.00 0.7800 0.9425 1.0400 0.7745 109.00 125.00
Support 2 1.3700 1.5750 76.25 0.7600 0.9055 1.0200 0.6850 106.00 119.00

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE –EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMTSCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT

Currency USD/MXN USD/TRY USD/ZAR USD/HKD USD/SGD Currency USD/SEK USD/DKK USD/NOK
Resist 2 13.8500 1.8235 7.4025 7.8165 1.3650 Resist 2 7.5800 5.6625 6.1150
Resist 1 12.5000 1.7425 7.3500 7.8075 1.3250 Resist 1 6.5175 5.3100 5.7075
Spot 11.7277 1.6911 6.7309 7.7906 1.2018 Spot 6.3245 5.2217 5.3789
Support 1 11.5200 1.6500 6.5575 7.7490 1.2000 Support 1 6.0800 5.1050 5.3040
Support 2 11.4400 1.5725 6.4295 7.7450 1.1800 Support 2 5.8085 4.9115 4.9410

INTRA-DAY PIVOT POINTS 18:00 GMT

Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist 2 1.4571 1.6575 78.89 0.8056 0.9667 1.1127 0.8889 113.85 130.45
Resist 1 1.4420 1.6436 77.99 0.7936 0.9614 1.1045 0.8826 111.92 128.03
Pivot 1.4302 1.6337 77.14 0.7834 0.9553 1.0984 0.8779 110.31 126.12
Support 1 1.4151 1.6198 76.24 0.7714 0.9500 1.0902 0.8716 108.38 123.70
Support 2 1.4033 1.6099 75.39 0.7612 0.9439 1.0841 0.8669 106.77 121.79

INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

\Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist. 3 1.4462 1.6454 77.97 0.7926 0.9657 1.1106 0.8882 111.61 127.17
Resist. 2 1.4414 1.6415 77.74 0.7899 0.9633 1.1071 0.8852 111.21 126.79
Resist. 1 1.4365 1.6376 77.52 0.7872 0.9609 1.1035 0.8822 110.80 126.40
Spot 1.4268 1.6297 77.08 0.7817 0.9561 1.0964 0.8762 109.98 125.62
Support 1 1.4171 1.6218 76.64 0.7762 0.9513 1.0893 0.8702 109.16 124.84
Support 2 1.4122 1.6179 76.42 0.7735 0.9489 1.0857 0.8672 108.75 124.45
Support 3 1.4074 1.6140 76.19 0.7708 0.9465 1.0822 0.8642 108.35 124.07

v

Written by: John Kicklighter, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


Japanese Yen Direction Contingent on U.S. Debt Ceiling Talks


By Christopher Vecchio, Junior Currency Analyst

22 July 2011 22:59 GMT
The Japanese Yen¥USD/JPY • NY Spot Close 78.477
Japanese_Yen_Direction_Contingent_on_U.S._Debt_Ceiling_Talks_body_usdjpy_risk.png, Japanese Yen Direction Contingent on U.S. Debt Ceiling TalksJapanese Yen Direction Contingent on U.S. DebtCeiling TalksFundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Neutral

The Yen slumped slightly this past week, falling 0.75 percent its American counterpart, while remaining in the middle of the pack against a basket of the other major currencies. While risk-appetite found some footing, with the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar leading the major currencies, the safe haven currencies – the Japanese Yen, the Swiss Franc and the U.S. Dollar – were relatively even across the board. This is a result of remaining uncertainty concerning the state of the two major financial pillars of the global economy, the Euro-zone and the United States. Thus, while there was some resolution in the near-term in regards to the European sovereign debt crisis, there is remaining uncertainty as to what is happening with the United States’ debt ceiling.

With not much significant data released over the past week, the Yen’s place, as has been for the past few weeks, was primarily that of a store of save haven, as, despite the country’s economic woes, the currency remains one of the most liquid assets in the world. There were two notable bright spots that highlighted the week for the Pacific Rim nation that are worth mentioning. First, on Wednesday, the merchandise trade balance figure for June was released, blowing through expectations. While the trade balance was -¥855.8 billion in May, the ¥70.7 billion reading easily beat the -¥149.0 billion estimate, a strong indication that the Japanese economy is starting to get on stronger footing following the earthquake. To this end, the all industry activity index expanded by 2.0 percent in May, after gaining by 1.4 percent in June; this further supports the notion that the Japanese economy is recovering.

Next week will be particularly interesting, considering that among a week fully saturated of significant events out of Japan, it broke late Friday that the debt negotiations broke off between Democrats and Republicans on resolving the debt ceiling issue. In terms of data due, the significant data begins to trickle in starting on Wednesday, with the bulk of the data being released on Thursday.

Retail sales data leads the block of data releases, with trade expected to have gained at a 1.5 percent rate in June, slightly down from the 2.4 percent rate in May. On the contrary, large retailers’ sales are forecasted to have fallen by a slight 0.4 percent over the same period. On Thursday, two more data release could further support the Yen. First, the consumer price index is expected to show a slight uptick to 0.2 percent, marking the third month in which price pressures have increased, a welcomed trend by the Japanese economy. Later, industrial production data is due, which, while forecasted to have decreased on a year-over-year basis, production is expected to have rebounded on a monthly basis, by 4.5 percent in June. it is unlikely that these data will have much of an impact on the Yen, though, as the currency is currently considered a store of safe haven in times of crisis, so amid the debt problems ramping up in the United States, which they now have, the Yen will be bid higher on poor news. -CV


US Dollar Traders Have to Monitor Debt Talks, Euro Market, Risk Trends


US Dollar Traders Have to Monitor Debt Talks, Euro Market, Risk Trends

By John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist

22 July 2011 21:54 GMT

The US Dollar $USD IndexNY Spot Close 9457.56
US_Dollar_Traders_Have_to_Monitor_Debt_Talks_Euro_Market_Risk_Trends_body_USDOLLAR_risk.png, US Dollar Traders Have to Monitor Debt Talks, Euro Market, Risk Trends

US Dollar Traders Have to Monitor Debt Talks, Euro Market, Risk Trends

Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar: Neutral

The countdown for the US is getting serious. We have concluded another weak where the US government has failed to come to a compromise on its deficit troubles. Further creating troubles for the greenback, we have seen the European funding market (a source of liquidity costs that plays to the dollar’s safe haven status) come into at least a temporary period of relief with a massive bailout effort by the EU; while risk appetite trends have taken a considerable jump to defer that long-threatened collapse. That said, all of these headwinds will do more to anchor the currency than necessarily generate a meaningful trend over the next week.

Heading into the new trading week, the deficit debate carries the greatest potential sway over the dollar. Depending on how this situation evolves; it could have a sweeping effect over the single currency and even the broader financial markets. Yet, it is prudent to work within reasonable probabilities to interpret how this matter will influence the dollar. If our outlook were for two weeks, it would be a virtual guarantee that the greenback is in for significant volatility and even a significant trend. However, our outlook is just for the upcoming week. That being the case, the outlook is far more fluid. Considering the deficit ceiling will be officially breached on August 2nd, there is time for political maneuvering as Democrats and Republicans gain points for sticking to their guns. It is a severely low probability that this situation ends in a technical default and the likelihood of a solution before next weekend is high.

How the deficit solution impacts the dollar and capital markets is a function of what is agreed to. If the limit is simply lifted to avoid the pain of a default event, it could offer temporary relief to capital markets and the greenback in equal parts. That said, the follow through would likely be limited as ratings agencies have warned the reasoning for a downgrade runs beyond just the quick fix and to the lack of long-term fiscal plan. Alternatively, should there be proposal that targets significant deficit reduction over a reasonable timeframe through a revenue (taxes) focus, an expenditure (spending) focus or a mix of both; it could be seen as an effort to pump the break on the economy and withdraw the very stimulus that has driven confidence and capital markets since the Great Recession – which would weigh on risk appetite which adds a safe haven appeal to the dollar as it garners attention for improved outlook for stability. If we end the week without a clear solution; expect volatility to grow increasingly unstable as rumors and headlines spur fear and speculation.

Another major driver for the dollar that fits within the ‘theme’ category is the blowback the greenback bears from the perception of the Euro Zone’s credit health. This past week, officials announced sweeping policy agendas to smother the sense of crisis contagion in the sovereign and private lending markets. There were major efforts adopted; but there are also significant shortfalls. Ultimately it comes down to market sentiment. If the steps taken don’t boost confidence or if risk aversion is an engrained and global driver, the euro will continue its slide and thereby boost its most liquid counterpart: the dollar.

When it comes down to it, these more pervasive and vague problems will determine the dollar’s activity level and general direction. However, there are a few scheduled events that can stir short-term volatility and perhaps even contribute or detract from existing trends. We have consumer confidence and housing sector data; but the real market-mover is the first reading of 2Q GDP. Depending on how risk trends are behaving, the outcome for the dollar can follow risk trends or speculation for additional stimulus. – JK


Dollar Ignores Budget Headway, Earnings and Suffers for Risk Rally


Dollar Ignores Budget Headway, Earnings and Suffers for Risk Rally

Dollar Ignores Budget Headway, Earnings and Suffers for Risk Rally

By John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist

20 July 2011 05:07 GMT
  • Dollar Ignores Budget Headway, Earnings and Suffers for Risk Rally
  • Euro Surprisingly Steady Despite Portugal Surprise Gap, Rising Greece Uncertainty
  • British Pound: Will the BoE Minutes Stir Volatility Like the Last Statement?
  • Canadian Dollar Rallies after BoC Rouses Interest Rate Hikes
  • Australian Dollar Torn Between a Rally in Capital Markets, Dovish Turn from RBA
  • Swiss Franc Marks a Sharp Correction but was it Risk or the Euro’s Doing?
  • Gold Rally Ends with Record Highs but Not Record Consistency

Dollar Ignores Budget Headway, Earnings and Suffers for Risk Rally

Looking at the mix of performance against its most prominent counterparts, it was clear that the currency was following its traditional risk appetite lines. This in itself is rather remarkable because we have seen this particular driver drop off as an immediate catalyst in recent days because of the uncertainties surrounding the countdown for the US to surpass its legal budget ceiling. Gauging the convictions behind investor sentiment Tuesday, we can defer to the benchmark S&P 500 Index which rallied a remarkable 1.7 percent – the biggest single-day rally since March 3rd and a sound rejection of a major boundary to bearish progression (the 1,300 level). We can assess this particular catalysts’ influence over the greenback by the severity of the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollar’s rallies against the common benchmark. Offering further confirmation of just how pervasive risk trends were, we would further see the greenback actually gain traction against the Japanese yen and Swiss franc – a more convincing funding currency and safe haven respectively.

This rally in risk appetite is somewhat suspicious given the fundamentals that were on tap through Tuesday; but it makes more sense when we reflect on the underlying market conditions we are dealing with. Volatility is a stubborn hold over from the previous two weeks when headlines were stirring capital turnover; but the masses are still refusing to generate a consistent direction (bullish or bearish) due to the big-ticket threats that are loom just over the horizon. The investor sentiment influence is certainly showing through in the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index’s (ticker = USDollar) bearings; but EURUSD is a better guide for the currency’s views beyond the volatility of risk appetite. The benchmark pair gained on the day; but ultimately it is deeply mired in congestion. For this cross specifically we isolate two major, conflicting fundamental drivers. On the euro’s side, the uncertainty surrounding the sovereign debt crisis is providing consistent pressure (more on that below). That is directly contrasted by the fear that we will reach August 2nd without a fix for the US debt ceiling. Through this past session, President Obama voiced support for the ‘Gang of Six’ proposal that would reduce the deficit by $3.7 billion. And, though Speaker of the House Boehner remarked that it didn’t go far enough, it seems that the government is working towards an agreeable compromise.

The other important driver for the day (the housing data offered little in the way of lasting influence over the dollar) was the round of 2Q earnings. At the top of our watch list were the bank reports: Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Bank of New York Mellon. The health of these financial sector giants represents a strong driver for investor optimism, offer a valuable reflection to the health of the financial sector and presents its own reflection of underlying growth. The BoA $9.1 billion loss is a good reflection of the troubles with the mortgage market as well as the increased regulation; while the $0.33 earnings-per-share speaks to the leveraged use of accounting to maintain fragile market confidence.

Euro Surprisingly Steady Despite Portugal Surprise Gap, Rising Greece Uncertainty

While we haven’t seen another critical step towards the total spread of the Euro Zone sovereign debt crisis; the headlines continue to undermine any positive arguments that are made in support for the euro. The heavy headline flows from the region Tuesday were topped by Portugal Prime Minister Coelho’s announcement that a previously unreported 2 billion euro budget gap was uncovered. Perhaps just as notable though, Spain and Greece auctioned off debt to dubious yields and bidders; ECB member Nowotny seemed to open the door to allowing a temporary default for Greece; and German Chancellor Angela Merkel attempted to curb expectations of a solution for the crisis by the close of Thursday’s summit.

British Pound: Will the BoE Minutes Stir Volatility Like the Last Statement?

The Bank of England rate decision has been a non-event for the sterling for a number of months now. On the other hand, the minutes that reflect the policy authority’s discussions, reasoning for their hold and forecast for the future can certainly catch the markets off guard. Considering inflation and economic activity futures have eased while European financial stability is under pressure, a bearish shift is possible.

Canadian Dollar Rallies after BoC Rouses Interest Rate Hikes

No change was expected from the Bank of Canada’s rate decision this past trading session; and indeed, the central bank wouldn’t disappoint. That said, the statement that followed the decision offered a little more illumination than was expected. The market focused on the missing word ‘eventually’ in reference to when rates would rise. With a forecast for the economy to hit full potential by mid-2012, this is a good hawkish mix.

Australian Dollar Torn Between a Rally in Capital Markets, Dovish Turn from RBA

Like its monetary policy regime, the Australian dollar is not untouchable. After the RBA minutes reported that it could hold on rates for an extended period of time to assess the financial market feedback from Europe’s troubles and inflation pressures, the currency started to pullback. It is difficult to see exactly how much influence this has on a pair like AUDUSD; but AUDCAD offers a better contrast to policy expectations.

Swiss Franc Marks a Sharp Correction but was it Risk or the Euro’s Doing?

Monday’s pullback could have been written off as volatility; but the stumble from the franc Tuesday cannot be brushed off so quickly. The tumble against high-yielding currencies like the Aussie and kiwi dollar’s can be attributed to the risk appetite run; but USDCHF and EURCHF reversals are more intrinsic to the franc’s fundamentals. The currency comes under the magnifying glass when the market doesn’t blindly sell euros.

Gold Rally Ends with Record Highs but Not Record Consistency

We were so close to hitting that unprecedented 12-day run; but ultimately, gold wouldn’t make it. After 11 consecutive days of advance; the precious metal would finally fall back on suggestions that the US president and Congress were coming closer to a palatable compromise on the ever-problematic debt fears. That said, issues in the US and Europe are far from resolved; so don’t build a large short just yet.

ECONOMIC DATA

Next 24 Hours

GMT Currency Release Survey Previous Comments
0:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (MAY) 0.2% Leading index growth declined since April
1:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (JUL) 3.3% Expectations may point to actual CPI
5:00 JPY Coincident Index (MAY F) 106 Japanese economic measures have recovered after March, though still not at pre-quake levels
5:00 JPY Leading Index (MAY F) 99.8
6:00 EUR German Producer Prices (MoM) (JUN) 0.0% 0.0% An expected fall in long term price change may result in dovish ECB decisions
6:00 EUR German Producer Prices (YoY) (JUN) 5.5% 6.1%
7:00 JPY Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (JUN) 5.7% Broader tracking of Japanese retail
8:00 EUR Italian Industrial Orders s.a. (MoM) (MAY) 2.3% -6.4% Italian orders expected to increase, led by exports though not likely to have major effects on country’s own debt problems
8:00 EUR Italian Industrial Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (MAY) 10.2% 5.8%
8:00 EUR Italian Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) (MAY) 1.5%
8:00 EUR Italian Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) (MAY) 14.2%
9:00 EUR Italian Current Account (euros) (MAY) -5604M Payments balance recovered last month
11:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (JUL 15) -5.1% Could improve on housing starts
12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (MAY) 0.1% -0.1% Same level sales could have some push behind future rate hikes
14:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (JUL A) -10.2 -9.8 Advance data shows softer confidence
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JUN) 1.9% -3.8% Sales expected to recover following today’s better home starts
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales (JUN) 4.90M 4.81M
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUL 15) -1500K -3124K Reduction in crude inventories again could mean pickup in demand, though moderately weaker than previous
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (JUL 15) 1500K 2967K
14:30 USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (JUL 15) 615K
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (JUL 15) -100K -840K
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (JUL 15) 0.0% -0.4%
22:45 NZD Net Migration s.a. (JUN) -360 Further outmigration could point to weaker domestic economy
23:01 GBP UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence (JUN) 49 55 EU troubles expected to drag
23:50 JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) (JUN) -¥250.4B -¥474.6B Trade balance expected to moderately recover as large manufacturing industries and companies recover after earthquake
23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (JUN) -4.1 -10.3
23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (JUN) 11 12.3
23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) (JUN) -¥149.0B -¥855.8B
GMT Currency Upcoming Events & Speeches
1:30 JPY BOJ Deputy Governor Yamaguchi to Speak in Matsumoto City
2:00 CNY Conference Board China July Leading Economic Index
8:30 GBP Bank of England Minutes
14:30 CAD Monetary Policy Report
22:15 USD Fed’s Sack to Speak to Money Marketeers in New York

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE – 18:00 GMT

Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist 2 1.5160 1.6600 86.00 0.8900 1.0275 1.1800 0.8620 118.00 146.05
Resist 1 1.5000 1.6300 81.50 0.8550 1.0000 1.1000 0.8520 113.50 140.00
Spot 1.4133 1.6121 79.19 0.8248 0.9500 1.0731 0.8557 111.92 127.67
Support 1 1.4000 1.5935 78.50 0.8075 0.9500 1.0400 0.7745 109.00 125.00
Support 2 1.3700 1.5750 76.25 0.7900 0.9055 1.0200 0.6850 106.00 119.00

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE –EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMTSCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT

Currency USD/MXN USD/TRY USD/ZAR USD/HKD USD/SGD Currency USD/SEK USD/DKK USD/NOK
Resist 2 13.8500 1.7425 7.4025 7.8165 1.3650 Resist 2 7.5800 5.6625 6.1150
Resist 1 12.5000 1.6730 7.3500 7.8075 1.3250 Resist 1 6.5175 5.3100 5.7075
Spot 11.6639 1.6586 6.9301 7.7950 1.2154 Spot 6.5124 5.2758 5.5280
Support 1 11.5200 1.5725 6.5575 7.7490 1.2145 Support 1 6.0800 5.1050 5.3040
Support 2 11.4400 1.5040 6.4295 7.7450 1.2000 Support 2 5.8085 4.9115 4.9410

INTRA-DAY PIVOT POINTS 18:00 GMT

Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist 2 1.4288 1.6250 79.50 0.8315 0.9647 1.0833 0.8660 112.95 128.28
Resist 1 1.4210 1.6186 79.35 0.8281 0.9574 1.0782 0.8609 112.43 127.98
Pivot 1.4140 1.6113 79.08 0.8217 0.9528 1.0690 0.8521 111.81 127.40
Support 1 1.4062 1.6049 78.93 0.8183 0.9455 1.0639 0.8470 111.29 127.09
Support 2 1.3992 1.5976 78.66 0.8119 0.9409 1.0547 0.8382 110.67 126.51

INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

\Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist. 3 1.4334 1.6280 80.02 0.8356 0.9591 1.0873 0.8676 113.65 129.34
Resist. 2 1.4284 1.6240 79.81 0.8329 0.9568 1.0838 0.8646 113.22 128.92
Resist. 1 1.4234 1.6200 79.60 0.8302 0.9546 1.0802 0.8616 112.78 128.50
Spot 1.4133 1.6121 79.19 0.8248 0.9500 1.0731 0.8557 111.92 127.67
Support 1 1.4032 1.6042 78.78 0.8194 0.9454 1.0660 0.8498 111.06 126.84
Support 2 1.3982 1.6002 78.57 0.8167 0.9432 1.0624 0.8468 110.62 126.42
Support 3 1.3932 1.5962 78.36 0.8140 0.9409 1.0589 0.8438 110.19 126.00

v

Written by: John Kicklighter, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver – Daily Outlook 07.18.2011


Gold & Silver - Daily Outlook July 18

By Lior Cohen, 
18 July 2011 15:02 GMT

Gold & Silver – Daily Outlook July 18

Gold and silver kept on rising during last week, and they continue to do so this week. Today, the US TIC long term purchases report will be published; the Australian bank will make its decision on the overnight rate.

Let’s examine the news of the day related to the precious metals market for today July 18th:

Gold and Silver–July

Gold price ended last week on a positive note as it rose by 0.05% to $1,590 – its highest price level in 2011 on Friday, July 15th.

Gold rose for ninth consecutive days.

Silver also inclined by 0.97% to $39.07 – the highest price level since May 4th.

During July, gold increased by 5.5%, and silver inclined by 9.5%.

The chart below shows the normalized gold and silver (June 30th 2011=100). It shows that silver has been outperforming gold since the middle of last week; it also shows that up until gold price has inclined by nearly 6% from the beginning of the month, and silver price added 12% to its value in July.

Guest_Commentary_Gold_and_Silver_Outlook_07.18.2011_body_Gold_prices_forecast__silver_price_outlook_2011_JULY_18.png, Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver - Daily Outlook 07.18.2011

Euro Debt – Trichet says Europe to Show Determination

The debt concerns in Europe continue to affect traders as the Euro continues to depreciate against major other currencies. The European Central Bank President said that the concerns over the European debt will continue until Europe will act determinedly to overcome this matter.

He also said that ECB won’t accept government bonds as collateral in case a country will reach default:

“If a country defaults, we can no longer accept as normal eligible collateral defaulted bonds issued by the government of that country. Because, in the eyes of the Governing Council, this would impair our ability to be an anchor of confidence and stability.”

US Debt Ceiling Concerns

The US government will need to decide on raising the debt ceiling by the beginning of August; it’s mostly likely to be passed in the next couple of weeks, but in the mean time the internet continues to explore this issue. Moody’s rating agency even went one step further and suggested the United States to eliminate its statutory limit on government debt in order to reduce uncertainty among bond holders.

US TIC Report for May 2011

The Treasury International Capital presents the main changes in the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries during May 2011. In the April report, the net foreign purchases reached $30.6 billion; the increase in purchases was mainly driven by China. In the upcoming report there might continue to be a rise in purchases. If this will be the case, it might bring some confidence and reassurance to the US dollar.

Euro, US Dollar / Gold & Silver– July Update

The Euro/USD exchange rate fell during July by 2.4%, and on Friday it rose by 0.11%. If today the USD will depreciate against major currencies including Australian dollar and Canadian dollar, this might further push gold and silver up.

Gold and Silver Outlook:

Gold and silver continue to rise as they did during last week. For gold the longest streak it had in rising was back in April as it rose for eight consecutive business days (between April 13th and April 25th), which makes the current streak the longest one in 2011 so far. The concerns over the US debt ceiling on the one hand and the European debt on the other are probably among the reasons for this recent rally in bullion metals. Therefore I think that gold and silver will moderate change today, but will likely to continue their upward trend in the following days.

For further reading:

Lior Cohen, M.A. commodities analyst and blogger at Trading NRG.

By: Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst forTrading NRG


Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis Further Deteriorates, So Why the Bounce?


Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis Further Deteriorates, So Why the Bounce?

By John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist

13 July 2011 04:13 GMT
  • Dollar and Equities Traders Look for Mentions of QE3 from Bernanke
  • Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis Further Deteriorates, So Why the Bounce?
  • British Pound Follows Risk Trends More Closely than Inflation Data
  • Australian Dollar Finds a Temperate Boost from Chinese GDP
  • New Zealand Dollar Gets a Second Attempt at 1Q GDP Figures
  • Japanese Yen Sees Early Session Surge But Strength Quickly Retraced
  • Gold Rally Continues, Record High Close as Financial Stability Questioned

Dollar and Equities Traders Look for Mentions of QE3 from Bernanke

If the dollar (ticker = USDollar) were in charge of its own fortunes, it wouldn’t have suffered the sharp reversal the market impressed through the European and US trading hours Tuesday. The price action through the previous trading day reminds us that the greenback is at the mercy of larger fundamental themes; and the currency will continue to find its bearings through these strong market winds through the foreseeable future. Tracking following the now-familiar correlations, the high level of market volatility made even easier to spot the dollar’s reflection of risk appetite trends. Our favored benchmark for sentiment trends, S&P 500 futures, managed to break the most aggressive decline in over a month with a sharp, bullish recover before New York liquidity came online. The unusually active overnight session lined up perfectly with EURUSD, pulling the currency back up to the important 1.40 figure that signaled progress on the pair’s bearish progress the session before. Now, with the benchmark exchange rate resting once again at this critical figure; the debate over direction and momentum are once again the responsibility of speculators.

From the fundamental side of the equation, market sentiment was guided by the preoccupation with the European sovereign debt situation – hence the intraday reversal. With Ireland finding itself sovereign debt rating lowered to ‘junk’ status (more on that below), the situation has tangibly deteriorated; but the speculative spirit would respond quickly to the quick fix offered in rumors of ECB purchases of EU member bonds. This temporary relief would turn a quick profit taking on risk-aversion position; and lead market participants to wait for the next catalyst for direction. For scheduled event risk, data did little to encourage risk trends or the US recovery. The May trade deficit swelled much more than expected to a $50.2 billion shortfall while the NFIB reported an unexpected slip in small business confidence (the group responsible for the greatest segment of employment in the country). Most notable, though, was the minutes from the FOMC decision. This looked like a write-off event after Chairman Bernanke’s press conference following the decision; but the notes proved noteworthy. On one hand, a few members spoke to the need for further stimulus should growth not curb unemployment; but there was also a consensus on the “steps” for stimulus withdrawal.

Perhaps this mixed view will come up in Bernanke’s testimony in the upcoming New York session. The central banker is scheduled to deliver his semi-annual policy report to Congress; and politicians have better access to grill than the regular market participant. Given the discussions circulating in headlines and amongst trading forums, there is considerable speculation of a QE3 announcement. That is unlikely given the steady progress of policy to this point and the trouble with eventually drawing down a larger safety net. Then again, anything is possible nowadays.

Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis Further Deteriorates, So Why the Bounce?

Having plunged in the previous two active trading sessions (and fallen over 500 points in the span of 5 days against the greenback), the euro was due for a correction. The initial tumble Tuesday morning was largely influenced by prevailing market concerns; but some credit should be given to comments offered by new IMF head Lagarde. The real buying momentum for the day, however, falls to rumors that the ECB purchased Italian and Spanish sovereign bonds after their dramatic selloff the previous day. A bid from the policy officials is a well-known temporary fix; but the hold over form this effort is certainly in question after Moody’s downgraded Ireland’s credit rating to ‘Junk’ and pegged it with a negative outlook. The immediate impact was muted; but this was the same general reaction to the Portugal incident the previous week. We now have two countries whose debt will have to be purged by high quality portfolios and a crisis spreading to the EU core. Temporary fixes won’t cut it.

British Pound Follows Risk Trends More Closely than Inflation Data

Between bullish and bearish scenarios for the UK CPI data; the latter had the greater potential for impact. That said, a notable slip from the headline reading to 4.2 percent clip wouldn’t rouse much of a reaction from the sterling. This reflects a complete lack of interest in rate speculation. Alternatively, the jobs figures could tap into concerns over the impact of austerity efforts on growth and perk up volatility.

Australian Dollar Finds a Temperate Boost from Chinese GDP

Business and consumer confidence data populated the Australian docket Tuesday and Wednesday respectively; but its influence over the market was notable anemic. Those trading the high-yield currency are more concerned with larger risk trends and longer-term economic trends. That said, a 2Q GDP reading from China (the slowest since 3Q 2009 but still 9.5 percent) didn’t seem to alter carry interests much.

New Zealand Dollar Gets a Second Attempt at 1Q GDP Figures

Last week, the market was preparing for the release of 1Q GDP figures from New Zealand; but the statistics group decided to push the data’s release back. Now, we are once again in the countdown to the release and expectations of a 0.3 percent increase in growth reflect a decent performance for the country. Yet, for a currency that has rallied on flimsy fundamentals; a disappointment can push the tipping point.

Japanese Yen Sees Early Session Surge But Strength Quickly Retraced

The Bank of Japan boosted its outlook for the economy for the second month with the commentary from its policy decision; but the downgrade to year-end 2012 GDP forecasts hung heavy. Yet, yen traders know that generated little interest for the currency. Wednesday morning, a big flush after the session rollover would expose low liquidity and spark a sharp rally. But without carry unwinding to back it up, it was quickly retraced.

Gold Rally Continues, Record High Close as Financial Stability Questioned

With Bernanke on tap tomorrow, the US 2Q earnings season starting soon, the budget ceiling countdown running, Ireland downgraded to ‘junk’ status, and the Portuguese central bank downgrading growth forecasts; there is plenty of reason to avoid exposure to the largest economies and their troubled markets. What are the viable alternatives to something as familiar and liquid as currencies: gold is at the top of the short list.

ECONOMIC DATA

Next 24 Hours

GMT Currency Release Survey Previous Comments
0:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (JUL) -2.6% May indicate rate of consumer consumption going into Fall months
0:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (JUL) 101.2
2:00 CNY Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (JUN) 13.9% 14.0% Slower production could mean PBoC tightening working
2:00 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN) 13.1% 13.3%
2:00 CNY Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD (YoY) (JUN) 25.7% 25.8%
2:00 CNY Real GDP YTD (QoQ) (2Q) 2.1% If the GDP slows, it may indicate spending will decrease. However if GDP continues to grow, may lead to continued tightening
2:00 CNY Real GDP YTD (YoY) (2Q) 9.5% 9.7%
2:00 CNY Real GDP (QoQ)(2Q) 2.1%
2:00 CNY Real GDP (YoY) (2Q) 9.0% 9.7%
2:00 CNY Retail Sales YTD YoY (JUN) 16.7% 16.6% Retail sales is usually correlated with inflation, may suggest PBoC plans
2:00 CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN) 17.0% 16.9%
4:30 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (MAY F) 5.7% Japanese industrial data could suggest demand for raw materials
4:30 JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY F) -5.9%
4:30 JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (MAY) -1.1%
6:00 EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (JUN) -0.2% 0.0% Wholesale prices expected to fall slightly, reduction may pass onto CPI
6:00 EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (JUN) 8.8% 8.9%
7:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (JUN) -0.3% -0.2% Production import prices may have little bearing on future SNB decisions
7:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (JUN) -0.3% -0.4%
8:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate (JUN) 4.7% 4.6% Newest British employment data could show weakness in labor market, possibly pointing to a slowdown in the overall economy
8:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change (JUN) 15K 19.6K
8:30 GBP Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY (MAY) 2.1% 1.8%
8:30 GBP Weekly Earnings exBonus 3M/YoY (MAY) 2.0% 2.0%
8:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (MAY) 7.7% 7.7%
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (MAY) 4.8% 5.3% Year over year industrial production expected to slow as world economy weaker
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (MAY) 0.4% 0.2%
11:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (JUL 8) -5.2% Data may point to real estate health
12:30 USD Import Price Index (MoM) (JUN) -0.6% 0.2% Year-over-year import prices expected to be driven upwards by raw materials costs
12:30 USD Import Price Index (YoY) (JUN) 13.2% 12.5%
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUL 8) -889K Energy levels expected to drop as demand keeps falling due to slower domestic economy
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (JUL 8) -634K
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (JUL 8) 0.3%
14:30 USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (JUL 8) -460K
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (JUL 8) -191K
18:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement (JUN) -$65.5B -$57.6B Budget deficit expected to widen to Aug 2
22:30 NZD Business NZ PMI (JUN) 54.7 Business survey has trended up
22:45 NZD GDP Q1 (YoY) 0.5% 0.8% First quarter output expected to be lower, largely due to Christchurch earthquake
22:45 NZD GDP Q1 (QoQ) 0.3% 0.2%
GMT Currency Upcoming Events & Speeches
5:00 JPY Bank of Japan Monthly Economic Report
14:00 USD Bernanke Delivers Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report to House

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE – 18:00 GMT

Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist 2 1.5160 1.6600 89.00 0.9345 1.0275 1.1800 0.8400 118.00 146.05
Resist 1 1.5000 1.6300 86.00 0.8900 1.0000 1.1000 0.8300 113.50 140.00
Spot 1.3976 1.5913 79.24 0.8306 0.9666 1.0598 0.8181 110.74 126.10
Support 1 1.4000 1.5935 79.00 0.8300 0.9500 1.0400 0.7745 109.00 125.00
Support 2 1.3700 1.5750 75.00 0.8250 0.9055 1.0200 0.6850 106.00 119.00

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE –EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMTSCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT

Currency USD/MXN USD/TRY USD/ZAR USD/HKD USD/SGD Currency USD/SEK USD/DKK USD/NOK
Resist 2 13.8500 1.7425 7.4025 7.8165 1.3650 Resist 2 7.5800 5.6625 6.1150
Resist 1 12.5000 1.6730 7.3500 7.8075 1.3250 Resist 1 6.5175 5.3100 5.7075
Spot 11.7927 1.6465 6.8786 7.7948 1.2252 Spot 6.5865 5.3360 5.5990
Support 1 11.5200 1.5725 6.5575 7.7490 1.2145 Support 1 6.0800 5.1050 5.3040
Support 2 11.4400 1.5040 6.4295 7.7450 1.2000 Support 2 5.8085 4.9115 4.9410

INTRA-DAY PIVOT POINTS 18:00 GMT

Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist 2 1.4183 1.6049 80.81 0.8444 0.9843 1.0735 0.8390 114.46 129.09
Resist 1 1.4080 1.5981 80.02 0.8375 0.9755 1.0667 0.8286 112.60 127.59
Pivot 1.3958 1.5881 79.60 0.8329 0.9690 1.0596 0.8198 111.09 126.36
Support 1 1.3855 1.5813 78.81 0.8260 0.9602 1.0528 0.8094 109.23 124.86
Support 2 1.3733 1.5713 78.39 0.8214 0.9537 1.0457 0.8006 107.72 123.63

INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

\Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist. 3 1.4172 1.6068 80.01 0.8411 0.9760 1.0736 0.8290 112.28 127.68
Resist. 2 1.4123 1.6029 79.82 0.8385 0.9736 1.0701 0.8263 111.90 127.29
Resist. 1 1.4074 1.5991 79.62 0.8359 0.9713 1.0667 0.8236 111.51 126.89
Spot 1.3976 1.5913 79.24 0.8306 0.9666 1.0598 0.8181 110.74 126.10
Support 1 1.3878 1.5835 78.86 0.8253 0.9619 1.0529 0.8126 109.97 125.31
Support 2 1.3829 1.5797 78.66 0.8227 0.9596 1.0495 0.8099 109.58 124.91
Support 3 1.3780 1.5758 78.47 0.8201 0.9572 1.0460 0.8072 109.20 124.51

v

Written by: John Kicklighter, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


FOREX: Dollar Can’t Recover Ground on Holiday Trading Conditions


TODAY FOREX ANALYSIS

  • Dollar Can’t Recover Ground on Holiday Trading Conditions
  • Euro: Positive Turn in Greece Funding Curbed by Another S&P Warning
  • Australian Dollar Misses Risk Run, Moving on to RBA Decision
  • British Pound Marks a Slow Start to an Event-Heavy Week
  • Swiss Franc Tumbling Quickly as Specific Safe Haven Appeal Fades
  • Japanese Yen Fortified by BoJ’s Positive Outlook, Eased Political Pressure
  • Gold Recovery Lacking for Momentum Until Fiat Demand Weighed

Dollar Can’t Recover Ground on Holiday Trading Conditions

The opening trading day to the week was an unusual one. On the one hand, we had significant fundamental event risk headed up by the ongoing Greek bailout saga. Alternatively, liquidity conditions were distorted by the absence of US market participation due to the extended Independence Day holiday weekend. The combination of these two atypical developments was a market high on volatility but low on meaningful follow through. This is the type of frustrating mix that draws many traders into what-looks-like appealing trades that never gain traction after posting an initial signal for entry. Looking to the dollar, we can see the full effect of this market-imposed lethargy. Despite the early morning attempt to post its first bullish close in five trading days, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar ) ended Monday in the red. A look across the majors gives us clear representation of this greenback-centered weakness. Gains from the core EURUSD and GBPUSD pairs were measured but well-established in an underlying (though decelerating trend); the safe haven balanced USDJPY and USDCHF pairs were mostly unchanged but still dollar negative; and the yield-tipped NZDUSD was pushing new record highs into the beginning of Tuesday’s session.

Much of the currency’s weakness for the opening session can be chalked up to the carryover of selling momentum from the previous week. When there are is a lull in liquidity; the ability to generate a new trend is exceptionally handicapped – especially when the prevailing winds are generally backing a larger selling effort. Essentially, we should look at Monday as a write-off. Assumptions of trend, breakouts and fundamental shifts should be overlooked as they don’t reflect the conviction of the broader markets. If that is the case, we can approach Tuesday’s session as the opening trading day for the dollar. If that is the case, we can draw forward the prominent fundamental considerations that would will determine the benchmark’s bearing through the rest of the week. Risk appetite trends are still but follow through decelerated between the Asian and European sessions Monday; and it is likely to carry this breaking effort into today’s session.

Risk trends are a considerable burden for the dollar when they are positive; but they have offered limited support when negative. This speaks to an underlying truth of the greenback: that the currency is not a pure safe haven but rather a source of liquidity when funding markets freeze up. That being the case, we note that with the passage of Greece’s fifth round of financial support from the European Union, we have temporarily alleviated the threat of a global crisis. In turn, the credit markets have improved and the greenback’s primary appeal has diminished. The European-based sovereign debt issue is still the most immediate threat; but it will be supplanted through the immediate future the approach of the ECB rate decision. This will take a lot of wind out of any offensive that the dollar tries to mount on risk trend from now until Thursday.

Related : Discuss the Dollar in the DailyFX Forum , Today’s Video : ECB Decision versus Greek Financial Crisis for EURUSD Traders’ Attentions

Euro: Positive Turn in Greece Funding Curbed by Another S&P Warning

Another projected outcome was confirmed for euro traders over the weekend; and the support it is offering the currency is visibly wearing thin. After Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou won the confidence vote, it was heavily expected that the country would pass through its additional 78 billion euro austerity measures and secure the fifth tranche of its first bailout package. Indeed, EU Finance Ministers voted this past weekend to release the additional 12 billion in aid (provided the IMF distributes its own portion – which it is expected to approve this Friday). However, from here, the outlook grows a little blurry. Next Monday, the topic of a supplementary bailout package will come up again. In the meantime, Standard & Poor’s threatens to disrupt the quick-fix regime by repeating it would still see a private Greek debt rollover as a default.

Australian Dollar Misses Risk Run, Moving on to RBA Decision

Despite a buoyant start to the week for investor sentiment, the Australian dollar would close Monday out with its first bearish print in five trading days. Considering this weakness was particularly prevalent on AUDNZD, it was clear that the first sub-3.0 percent reading on the TD inflation reading in 11 months along with weak retail sales and approvals weighed the currency specifically. This sets up a dangerous RBA letdown .

British Pound Marks a Slow Start to an Event-Heavy Week

This week is heavy for UK-based scheduled event risk ; but Monday started us out with something of a mix. The economy’s housing sector took another step back with a weaker-than-expected construction sector reading and ongoing 5.8 billion sterling deficit on housing equity withdrawal. Both indicators are indicative of an important sector that will add additional weight to austerity measures and future stimulus/ratings issues.

Swiss Franc Tumbling Quickly as Specific Safe Haven Appeal Fades

The franc is quickly retreating against most of its most liquid counterparts – but is this reason enough to call a top? To determine whether the Swiss currency is indeed retreating from its record or near-record highs requires a fundamental position change. The unit is now finding much of its selling pressure through a reversal in safe haven flows from central Europe to the banking economy; but that in itself is not yet a stable driver.

Japanese Yen Fortified by BoJ’s Positive Outlook, Eased Political Pressure

Economic indicators have limited impact on the yen; and even major swings in growth potential seem to leave the currency little fazed. The real concern is changes to its place as a funding currency. Monday morning, the BoJ upgraded its growth outlook slightly while Finance Minister Noda suggested the government was backing off some of the pressure for further stimulus. These developments modestly diminish that role.

Gold Recovery Lacking for Momentum Until Fiat Demand Weighed

If were just a move posted against the dollar, then we could ascribe gold’s advance Monday to thin markets and a speculative effort to curb bearish speculation through the end of last week. However, the metal posted gains across the board. Fundamentally, confidence in fiat currency has not truly gained much traction. More interesting: net speculative futures positioning dropped last week the most since September 2008.

For Real Time Forex News, visit: http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news/

**For a full list of upcoming event risk and past releases, go to http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar

ECONOMIC DATA

N ext 24 Hours

GMT Currency Release Survey Previous Comments
1:30 AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (MAY) 1900M 1597M Exports to NZ expected to increase
1:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (MAY) -0.6% -1.4% Slower fall brings better outlook for market
2:30 CNY China HSBC Services PMI (JUN) 54.3 Survey expected to follow official lower
4:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision 4.75% 4.75% Commentary will be the most important
7:45 EUR Italian PMI Services (JUN F) 49.6 50.1 Although Italian services industries expected to start shrinking, overall composite numbers expected stagnant
7:50 EUR French PMI Services (JUN F) 56.7 56.7
7:55 EUR German PMI Services (JUN F) 58.3 58.3
8:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Composite (JUN F) 53.6 53.6
8:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Services (JUN F) 54.2 54.2
8:30 GBP PMI Services (JUN) 53.5 53.8 Government cuts, weakness hurting sector
8:30 GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (JUN) -$103M Sharply fallen as bank buys pounds
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY) -1.0% 0.9% Decline in retail sales may not stop this week’s rate decision, but may dull any further hawkishness
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY)(MAY) -0.6% 1.1%
14:00 USD Factory Orders (MAY) 1.0% -1.2% Recovery may lead manufacturing sector
23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (JUN) 2.3% Retail sales steadily climbing

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE – 18 :00 GMT

Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist 2 1.5160 1.6600 89.00 0.9345 1.0275 1.1800 0.8400 122.00 146.05
Resist 1 1.5000 1.6300 86.00 0.8900 1.0000 1.1000 0.8300 118.00 140.00
Spot 1.4543 1.6095 80.76 0.8478 0.9606 1.0732 0.8292 117.45 129.99
Support 1 1.4000 1.5935 80.00 0.8300 0.9500 1.0400 0.7745 113.80 125.00
Support 2 1.3700 1.5750 75.00 0.8250 0.9055 1.0200 0.6850 105.50 119.00

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE – EMERGING MARKETS 18 :00 GMT SCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT

Currency USD/MXN USD/TRY USD/ZAR USD/HKD USD/SGD Currency USD/SEK USD/DKK USD/NOK
Resist 2 13.8500 1.6575 7.4025 7.8165 1.3650 Resist 2 7.5800 5.6625 6.1150
Resist 1 12.5000 1.6300 7.3500 7.8075 1.3250 Resist 1 6.5175 5.3100 5.7075
Spot 11.5835 1.6160 6.7239 7.7807 1.2252 Spot 6.2607 5.1288 5.3407
Support 1 11.5200 1.5040 6.5575 7.7490 1.2145 Support 1 6.0800 5.1050 5.3040
Support 2 11.4400 1.4725 6.4295 7.7450 1.2000 Support 2 5.8085 4.9115 4.9410

INTRA-DAY PIVOT POINTS 18:00 GMT

Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist 2 1.4621 1.6188 81.19 0.8521 0.9639 1.0821 0.8333 118.12 130.44
Resist 1 1.4582 1.6142 80.97 0.8500 0.9623 1.0776 0.8313 117.78 130.21
Pivot 1.4539 1.6094 80.76 0.8481 0.9601 1.0745 0.8290 117.41 129.94
Support 1 1.4500 1.6048 80.54 0.8460 0.9585 1.0700 0.8270 117.07 129.72
Support 2 1.4457 1.6000 80.33 0.8441 0.9563 1.0669 0.8247 116.70 129.45

INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

\ Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Resist. 3 1.4724 1.6251 81.56 0.8574 0.9693 1.0868 0.8401 119.01 131.47
Resist. 2 1.4679 1.6212 81.36 0.8550 0.9672 1.0834 0.8374 118.62 131.10
Resist. 1 1.4634 1.6173 81.16 0.8526 0.9650 1.0800 0.8346 118.23 130.73
Spot 1.4543 1.6095 80.76 0.8478 0.9606 1.0732 0.8292 117.45 129.99
Support 1 1.4452 1.6017 80.36 0.8430 0.9562 1.0664 0.8238 116.67 129.24
Support 2 1.4407 1.5978 80.16 0.8406 0.9540 1.0630 0.8210 116.28 128.87
Support 3 1.4362 1.5939 79.96 0.8382 0.9519 1.0596 0.8183 115.89 128.50

v

Written by: John Kicklighter , Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive John’s reports via email or to submit Questions or Comments about an article; email jkicklighter@dailyfx.com

The information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but of which we have not independently verified. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these materials. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages, including without limitation losses, lost revenues, or lost profits that may result from these materials. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
05 July 2011 00:30 GMT


Weekly Market Outlook 20 – 25 Juni 2011


Market Outlook 20 – 25 Juni 2011

15 dari 23 pedagang, investor, dan analis yang disurvei oleh Bloomberg mengatakan Komoditi Emas akan naik minggu ini. Komoditi Emas naik sebesar 7,5% tahun ini, mencapai harga tertingginya di $1,577.60/troy ounce pada tanggal 2 Mei 2011, karena investor mencari logam mulia sebagai perlindungan kekayaan terhadap kenaikan inflasi dan penurunan nilai mata uang.
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) pada 21 Juni 2011 pukul 08:30 WIB akan membahas kondisi ekonomi yang mempengaruhi keputusan mereka dalam menentukan tingkat suku bunga kedepan. Hasil yang positif akan men-support Aussie.

German ZEW Economic Sentiment dan German Ifo Business Climate Level indeks gabungan berdasarkan survei investor dan analis institusi Jerman, dan Level indeks gabungan terhadap manufaktur, bangunan, grosir dan pengecer. Laporan keduanya bulan ini di prediksi mengalami penurunan.

Existing Home Sales Jumlah bangunan yang terjual per tahun kecuali konstruksi yang baru di Amerika Serikat diprediksi akan mengalami penurunan, sebesar 4.83M, dari 5.05M. Apabila pada 21 Juni 2011 di rilis di bawah 4.83M, maka akan berdampak negatif bagi Dollar.

Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting minutes, Bank of England (BOE) Pada tgl 22 Juni 2011 akan mengadakan pertemuan mengenai kebijakan moneter, yang mempengaruhi keputusan mereka dalam menentukan tingkat suku bunga kedepan. Hasil yang positif akan menguntungkan Sterling.

FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) Statement Bank sentral Amerika Serikat pada tgl 22 Juni 2011 akan menyampaikan pernyataannya mengenai ekonomi Amerika, di barengi dengan penetapan tingkat suku bunga  pada Federal Funds Rate. dilanjutkan dengan FOMC Press Conference. Diprediksi The Fed tetap mempertahankan tingkat suku bunga di bawah 0.25%.

Inflation Report Hearings, Gubernur BOE (Bank of England) dan beberapa anggota MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) Pada tanggal 23 Juni 2011 akan menyampaikan testimoni mengenai inflasi. Pernyataan yang optomistik akan berdampak positif bagi Poundsterling.

New Home Sales. 

Jumlah rumah baru yang terjual di Amerika Serikat yang akan di rilis pada tgl 23 Juni 2011, di prediksi mengalami penurunan tipis, sebesar 311.000, dari 323.000. Apabila di rilis di bawah 311.000 maka akan berdampak negatif bagi Dollar.

BOE (Bank of England) Gov King Speaks, Gubernur Bank of England – Mervyn King Akan menyampaikan pidatonya pada 24 Juni 2011 pukul 16:30 WIB mengenai kebijakan moneter Inggris. Pernyataan yang optimistik akan menguntungkan Poundsterling.

Untuk indikator ekonomi global pada minggu ini tidak banyak rilis data ekonomi global yang penting, namun pengumuman suku bunga the Fed pada Rabu malam nanti akan jadi perhatian besar pasar, walau kemungkinan masih akan bertahan rate-nya. Secara umum agenda rilis data ekonomi yang kiranya perlu diperhatikan investor minggu ini, adalah:

Dari kawasan Amerika: Berupa rilis data Existing Home Sales pada Selasa malam; kemudian pengumuman Federal Funds Rate yang keumungkinan besar bertahan di level 0.25% pada Rabu tengah malam; berlanjut dengan rilis New Home Sales serta rilis tenaga kerja Unemployment Claims mingguan yang biasa menjadi perhatian pasar pada Kamis malam; terakhir adalah Core Durable Goods Orders pada Jumat malam.

o Dari kawasan Inggris dan Eropa: berupa pengumuman German ZEW Economic Sentiment pada Selasa sore; serta German Ifo Business Climate di waktu Jumat petang.

Minggu lalu di Pasar Forex Nilai tukar mata uang dollar mengalami penguatan secara umum lebih di akibatkan melemahnya mata uang Euro di minggu yang kedua, di tengah menguatirkannya situasi menuju ‘default’ untuk Yunani.

Index dollar terpantau naik ke level 75.445 dari yang pernah di 73’an.
Minggu yang lalu Euro terus melemah di minggu yang kedua oleh situasi makin terkungkungnya perekonomian Yunani, yang kemudian rebound di akhir minggu dengan EUR/USD bertengger di level 1.4305. Untuk minggu ini market range-nya akan berada antara resistance pada 1.4690 dan 1.4940, sedangkan level support di 1.4253 dan kemudian pada 1.3970.

Poundsterling Pada minggu lalu juga terkoreksi terhadap dollar, walau tidak setajam Euro, dan berakhir di level 1.6177. Untuk minggu ini, level Resistance terdekat pada 1.6548 dan kemudian 1.6747, sedangkan Support kalau tembus 1.6059 akan berada pada 1.5932 dan kemudian 1.5752.
Untuk USD/JPY Secara umum minggu lalu melemah terbatas dan ditutup di 80.01, pasar di minggu ini berada di antara Resistance pada 82.27 dan 85.59, serta Support level pada 78.82.

Sementara itu Aussie dollar terpantau seminggu lewat menguat terbatas yang berakhir di 1.0617. Range minggu ini masih di antara resistance 1.0887 dan 1.10 sementara support level di 1.0440 dan 1.0288.

Untuk pasar di Stock Index Futures pada minggu lalu di regional Asia masih terus melorot di minggunya yang ketujuh secara umum, tertekan oleh kekuatiran akan sentiment situasi ekonomi di Yunani dan Eropa.

Indeks Nikkei sementara ini masih tetap konsolidasi, berakhir di 9375. Rentang pasar saat ini antara level resistance di 10300 dan kemudian ke level 10875, serta support pada level 9360 dan lalu 8370. Sementara itu,
Indeks Hangseng Berjangka di Hongkong minggu lalu ditutup melemah tajam ke level 21609. Minggu ini masih berada dalam range level resistance di 22617 dan berikutnya 23785, sementara support-nya di 21026 serta 20250.

Bursa saham Wall Street minggu lalu masih sempat melemah namun rebound di akhir pekannya untuk menahan lanjutan pelemahan terpanjang sejak 2008, diwarnai dengan concern global terhadap ancaman resesi baru dunia.

Dow Jones Industrial berakhir di level 12004.30; saat ini dalam range resistance terdekat level 12573 dan kemudian 12876, sementara support di level 11566 dan pada 10950.

Index S&P 500 minggu lalu naik sedikit naik ke level 1271.50. Berikutnya, maka market range-nya akan berada di antara resistance level 1296 dan 1345, sementara level support berada di 1250 dan 1170.

Untuk Pasar Emas Minggu lalu terpantau menanjak terbatas di tengah munculnya kekuatiran ancaman resesi atas perekonomian global, dan berakhir di $1538.45/troy ounce, sesuai presdiksi sebelumnya. Untuk minggu ini Emas di perkirakan dengan bertahap masih berpeluang menguat kembali oleh kenaikan demand dan safe haven, dengan rentang berada antara Resistance pada $1574 dan $1580, sementara Support ada di $1460 serta berikut $1410/troy ounce. Di Indonesia, harga emas terpantau sedikit menguat di tengah terkoreksinya rupiah, ditutup di akhir pekan pada Rp 424,600

Posted with WordPress for BlackBerry.


Kompromi Masalah Yunani Selamatkan Aussie


Sabtu, 18 Juni 2011 02:08 WIB
TODAY’S ANALYSIS FOREX

Dollar Australia menghentikan penurunan 2 hari berturut-turut pada hari Jumat setelah Kanselir Jerman Angela Merkel sepakat untuk berkompromi dan bekerja sama dengan European Central Bank dalam mengupayakan paket bailout baru untuk Yunani, yang memulihkan permintaan untuk aset beresiko.

Aussie juga berhasil mencatat kenaikan mingguan terbesar dalam satu bulan terhadap mata uang AS pasca produktivitas industri China dilaporkan meningkat.
“Jerman telah melunak dan mereka tidak akan secara resmi meminta kontribusi pihak swasta untuk Yunani, sehingga kita dapat melihat sentimen terhadap resiko mulai membaik,” kata Charles St-Arnaud, abalis forex pada Nomura Holdings Inc. di New York. “Apresiasi Dollar Australia minggu ini lebih disebabkan oleh faktor pertumbuhan di China yang nampaknya tidak melambat secepat yang telah diperkirakan.”
Produktivitas sektor industri China meningkat sebesar 13,3% pada bulan lalu, yang melampaui perkiraan para ekonom, disertai penjualan ritel yang naik 16,9%, menurut laporan biro statistik. Indeks harga konsumen juga mencatat kenaikan 5,5% persen, yang sesuai ekspektasi pasar.
Sementara perbankan telah diperintahkan untuk menyisihkan lebih banyak uang sebagai cadangan.
Namun penguatan mata uang negara Pasifik Selatan yang ber-yield lebih tinggi ini nampaknya masih akan terbatas seiring data AS yang lebih lemah dari perkiraan mendorong spekulasi bahwa pemulihan pada ekonomi terbesar di dunia itu tengah goyah.
Saat ini AUD/USD diperdagangkan pada kisaran $1.0615 atau sekitar 0,5% lebih tinggi dibandingkan harga pembukaan hari Jumat.
***EnglishVersion***

Saturday, June 18, 2011 2:08 pm
TODAY’S FOREX ANALYSIS

The Australian dollar stopped down 2 days in a row on Friday after German Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed to compromise and cooperate with the European Central Bank in seeking a new bailout package for Greece, which restore the demand for risky assets.
Aussie also has recorded the biggest weekly gain in a month against the U.S. currency after China was reported to increase industrial productivity.

“Germany has softened and they would not formally ask for a private party for Greece, so we can see the sentiment against the risk of getting better,” said Charles St-Arnaud, abalis forex at Nomura Holdings Inc. in New York. “The appreciation of the Australian dollar this week was driven more by growth factors in China that do not seem to slow down as quickly as anticipated.”

Productivity of China’s industrial sector increased by 13.3% in the last month, which exceeded expectations of economists, with retail sales rising 16.9%, according to the statistics bureau report. The consumer price index also recorded an increase of 5.5% percent, which according to market expectations.

While banks have been instructed to set aside more money as reserves.
However, strengthening the currency of South Pacific countries that had higher yield this still seems to be limited as U.S. data weaker than expected prompted speculation that the recovery of the world’s largest economy was being shaken.

Currently AUD / USD traded at $ 1.0615, or about 0.5% higher than the opening price on Friday.


Market Review AS & Eropa


Market Review AS & Eropa: Dollar menguat terhadap sejumlah mata uang setelah berita bahwa sentimen konsumen membaik, dan seiring Euro yang mulai tenggelam. Kenaikan pada dollar memberikan tekanan pada saham AS. Minyak ditutup naik setelah diperdagangkan turun hampir sepanjang sesi. Sementara itu, emas turun sebanyak 0.88% untuk ditutup di level $1,493.80 pada hari Jumat. Data ekonomi hari ini adalah Rightmove HPI dari Inggris, machinery orders dan household confidence dari Jepang, home loans dari Australia, CPI dan trade balance dari zona Eropa, empire state manufacturing index, NAHB housing market index dari AS dan pidato dari Ben Bernanke. Nikkei diperkirakan akan bergerak dalam kisaran 9,510 – 9,640. EUR/USD closing 1.4119, high 1.4339, low 1.4064, XAUUSD C:1,493.80, H: 1,516.25, L:1,483.35 CO-LS C: 99.34, H: 100.70, L: 97.09. Dow C: 12,556, H: 12,675, L:12,515. Posted with WordPress for BlackBerry.


Market Review Asia


Market Review Asia

Bursa Seoul ditutup turun setelah perdagangan berlangsung sempit hari Senin, seiring investor masih was-was menjelang keputusan BoK dan berakhirnya kontrak opsi minggu ini, tetapi kenaikan saham perkapalan dan kilang minyak menopang indeks. Indeks rata-rata Nikkei Jepang turun 0.7%, terbawa oleh kejatuhan saham Chubu Electric Power setelah perdana menteri Naoto Kan memerintahkan penutupan fasilitas nuklir karena gempa yang besar dapat memicu krisis nuklir lainnya.

Dollar Australia pulih terhadap dollar AS, dilatarbelakangi oleh prospek kenaikan suku bunga, sementara keduanya, bersama dollar New Zealand menekan Euro yang rapuh terbebani kekhawatiran hutang pemerintah. Bursa saham Hong Kong berakhir turun untuk pertama kalinya dalam 9 sesi, terangkat oleh pulihnya harga minyak mentah global, tetapi terbatasi oleh kekhawatiran data ekonomi penting dari Beijing hari Rabu. IHSG turun sebanyak 5,413 poin terkait memburuknya kinerja saham perbankan.

Posted with WordPress for BlackBerry.


Market Outlook Senin, 09 – 14 Mei 2011


Market Outlook Senin, 09 – 14 Mei 2011
Minyak Mentah Futuresuntuk kontrak Juni jatuh hingga ke $94,66/barrel dari level tertingginya sejak 2008 di $114,81/barrel. Pertimbangan investor mengenai kematian Osama dengan dampak harga bahan bakar yang lebih tinggi, menjadi tekanan jual pada minyak. Trade Balance, Selisih nilai antara barang ekspor dan impor di Australia di prediksi mengalami sedikit kenaikan sebesar 0.53B, dari -0.21B. Apabila pada 10 Mei 2011 di rilis di atas 0.53B , maka akan menambah penguatan bagi Aussie

BOE (Bank of England) Gov King Speaksdan BOE  Inflation Report, pada 11 Mei 2011 pukul 16:30 WIB, Gubernur Bank of England – Mervyn King akan menyampaikan pidatonya dan laporan mengenai kebijakan moneter, analisa ekonomi dan nilai inflasi Inggris kedepannya Inggris. Pernyataan yang optimistik akan berdampak positif bagi Poundsterling.

Employment Change, Perubahan jumlah tenaga kerja di Asutralia di prediksi mengalami penurunan, sebesar 17.400, setelah bulan lalu mengalami kenaikan, sebesar 37.800. Apabila di rilis di bawah 17.400 pada 12 Mei 2011, maka akan berdampak negatif bagi Aussie. Unemployment Rate, Jumlah pengangguran di Australia yang aktif mencari pekerjaan yang akan di liris pada 12 Mei 2011 di prediksi tidak ada perubahan, tetap 4.9%. Apabila di rilis di bawah 4.9%, maka akan menguntungkan Aussie

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies, kepala Bank sentral Amerika Serikat – Ben Bernanke pada 12 Mei  2011 pukul 21:00 WIB akan menyampaikan komentarnya mengenai kondisi dan kebijakan ekonomi Amerika Serikat, khususnya tingkat suku bunga kedepan. Pernyataan yang optimistik akan menguntungkan Dollar.

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, level index gabungan Amerika Serikat berdasarkan survei konsumen akan di rilis akhir pekan ini, bulan lalu mengalami sedikit kenaikan, sebesar 69.8. Jika di rilis di atas 69.8, maka akan berdampak positif bagi Dollar.Untuk indikator ekonomi global, pada Minggu ini akan diwarnai data beberapa rilis ekonomi global maupun domestic. Yang penting di antaranya adalah pengumuman inflasi di China dan Amerika serta pengumuman BI Rate dari Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia yang diperkirakan bertahan di level 6.75%. Secara umum, agenda rilis data ekonomi yang kiranya perlu diperhatikan investor minggu ini, adalah:

Dari kawasan Amerika: berupa rilis data Trade Balance pada Rabu malam; lalu data Core Retail Sales, PPI serta data tenaga kerja Unemployment Claims mingguan yang biasa menjadi perhatian pasar dirilis pada Kamis malam; dan kemudian data inflasi CPI serta Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment pada Jumat malam.

o

Dari kawasan Inggris dan Eropa: berupa rilis Manufacturing Production Inggris pada Kamis sore.

o

Dari China dan Indonesia: berupa pengumuman inflasi CPI China pada Selasa pagi serta pengumuman Rapat Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia (RDG BI) tentang BI rate pada Kamis siang yang diperkirakan bertahan pada level 6.75%.

Minggu lalu di Pasar Forex, nilai tukar mata uang dollar berbalik rebound cukup tajam di akhir minggu setelah data tenaga kerja yang terakhir cukup baik dan melorotnya harga komoditas, sementara

Euro terpukul oleh indikasi dari president ECB Trichet bahwa ECB belum akan menaikkan bunganya dalam waktu dekat. Index dollar terpantau sempat anjlok di level 72.720 dan kemudian menguat ke level 74.910. Pekan yang lalu euro anjlok hampir 650 points dalam 2 hari dengan berakhir di level 1.4356. Untuk minggu ini market range-nya akan berada antara resistance pada 1.5000 dan 1.5145, sedangkan level support di 1.4157 dan kemudian pada 1.4000.

Poundsterling minggu lalu juga tertekan dengan penguatan dollar dan berakhir di level 1.6397. Untuk minggu ini, level resistance terdekat menjadi pada 1.6735 dan kemudian 1.6878, sedang support berada pada 1.6118 dan kemudian 1.5932. Untuk USDJPY secara umum minggu lalu bergerak melemah dan ditutup di 80.55 tertahan dengan penguatan kembali USD. Pasar di minggu ini berada di antara resistance pada 85.59, serta support level pada 78.82. Sementara itu, Aussie dollar terpantau seminggu lewat fluktuatif, bullish – koreksi – rebound yang berakhir di 1.0694. Range minggu ini antara resistance 1.10 dan 1.12 sementara support level di 1.0440.

Untuk pasar di Stock Index Futures, pada minggu lalu di regional Asia umumnya melemah, seperti di Hong Kong dan Korea oleh kekuatiran pasar akan pelambatan ekonomi global. Indeks Nikkei minggu lalu tertekan walau agak terbatas, berakhir di 9795. Rentang pasar saat ini antara level resistance di 10300 dan kemudian ke level 10,875, serta support pada level 9360 dan lalu 8370. Sementara itu, Indeks Hang Seng Berjangka di Hong Kong minggu lalu tergelincir, ditutup di level 22969. Minggu ini akan berada dalam range level resistance di 23785 dan berikutnya 24475, sementara support-nya di 22098.

Bursa Saham Wall Street minggu lalu terkoreksi cukup tajam akibat jatuhnya saham-saham yang terkait komoditas dan energy –walau rebound di hari terakhir pasar– yang membawa Index S&P500 mengalami koreksi terbesar sejak Maret lalu.

Dow Jones Industrial berakhir di level 12638.7 dan akan mungkin menuju resistance terdekat pada 12876 dan kemudian 13135, sementara support di level 12444 dan kemudian pada 12092.
Index S&P 500 minggu lalu terkoreksi, sehingga market range saat ini antara resistance di level 1370 dan 1404, sementara level support berada di 1294 dan 1250.

Untuk Pasar Emas, minggu lalu sangat fluktuatif dimana sempat mencetak rekor tertinggi baru sepanjang sejarahnya di level $1574.00/troy ounce, lalu terkoreksi tajam sampai ke level $1462.00/troy ounce, untuk kemudian berakhir di $1490.75/troy ounce. Volatilitas pasar kali ini dipengaruhi naik turunnya US dollar. Untuk Minggu ini emas akan konsolidatif dan bergerak lebih lambat, dengan rentang berada antara
resistance pada $1574 dan $1580, sementara support ada di $1440 serta berikut $1410/troy ounce. Di Indonesia sendiri, harga emas bak “roller coaster” dengan menanjak tajam cetak rekor di Rp433 ribu per gram lalu anjlok sampai Rp402 ribu, dan berakhir pada Rp411,200.

Dinamika atau bagi sebagian lainnya gejolak dari pasar investasi semakin fluktuatif belakangan ini, semakin jelas bahwa koreksi pasar memang ada. Rebound atau reversal adalah bagian dari pergerakan pasar. Dalam situasi demikian ini timing untuk masuk serta keluar pasar merupakan komponen kunci keberhasilan investasi.

Have a nice trade!!

Posted with WordPress for BlackBerry.


Market Outlook 18 – 23 April 2011


Market Outlook 18 – 23 April 2011

Emas kembali melonjak hingga kembali terbentuk rekor tertinggi sepanjang sejarah di $1,487.8/troy ounce, naiknya Emas di dorong oleh tekanan inflasi di China. Inflasi di China dipercepat 5,4% pada bulan Maret, dan produk domestik bruto diperluas 9,7% pada kuartal pertama. Gubernur bank sentral – Zhou Xiaochuan mengatakan bahwa pengetatan moneter akan berlanjut untuk “beberapa waktu”.Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) pada 19 April 2011 akan menyampaikan pandangannya terhadap ekonomi Australia, termasuk kemungkinan tingkat suku bunga dan kebijakan ekonomi kedapannya. Pernyataan yang optimistik akan menambah penguatan bagi Aussie.MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) Meeting Minutes, pertemuan komite kebijakan moneter Bank of England pada 20 April 2011 akan membahas kondisi ekonomi Inggris, pertemuan ini akan mempengaruhi keputusan BOE dalam menetapkan tingkat suku bunga mendatang.Existing Home Sales, jumlah bangunan yang terjual per tahun, kecuali konstruksi yang baru di Amerika Serikat diprediksi akan mengalami kenaikan, sebesar 5.04M, dari 4.88M. Apabila dirilis di atas 5.04M, maka akan berdampak positif bagi Dollar.German Ifo (Information and Forschung) Business Climate, level indeks gabungan terhadap manufaktur, bangunan, grosir dan pengecer di Jerman diprediksi mengalami sedikit penurunan, sebesar 110.7, dari 111.1. Apabila dirilis di bawah 110.7, maka akan berdampak negatif bagi Euro.Retail Sales, perubahan nilai total inflasi pada sektor penjualan retail di Inggris diprediksi mengalami kenaikan sebesar -0.5%, dari -0.8%. Apabila dirilis di atas -0.5%, maka akan sedikit mensupport Poundsterling.Unemployment Claims dan Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, laporan jumlah warga AS yang masuk dalam asuransi pengangguran, dan  level indeks gabungan berdasarkan survei manufaktur Philadelphia akan di rilis pada 21 April 2011, Apabila keduanya dirilis positif, maka akan menguntungkan Dollar.Untuk indikator ekonomi global, pada minggu ini tidak banyak rilis berita ekonomi global yang penting menjelang hampir semua pasar akan libur panjang Paskah hari Jumat. Secara umum, rilis data ekonomi yang kiranya perlu diperhatikan investor minggu ini, adalah:
• Dari kawasan Amerika: berupa rilis data Building Permits pada Selasa malam; lalu data Existing Home Sales di Rabu malam; selanjutnya Philly Fed Manufacturing Index untuk indicator industry bersamaan dengan data tenaga kerja Unemployment Claims mingguan yang biasa menjadi perhatian pasar dirilis pada Kamis malam.
o Dari kawasan Inggris dan Eropa: berupa rilis MPC Meeting Minutes pada Rabu sore untuk mengetahui kecenderungan arah suku bunga terdekat dari Bank of England; data German Ifo Business Climate pada Kamis.
Minggu lalu di Pasar Forex, nilai tukar mata uang dollar masih kembali melemah terhadap sejumlah mata uang utama dunia, di antaranya karena kemungkinan masih agak lama the Fed menaikkan suku bunga acuannya, dengan akhir index dollar di level 74.820 di area terendahnya sejak Desember 2007.
Pekan yang lalu Euro memangkas trend bullish-nya belakangan ini oleh kekuatiran atas bailout bagi Yunani, dengan Euro berakhir di level 1.4426. Untuk minggu ini market range-nya akan berada antara resistance berikut pada 1.4574 dan mengarah ke 1.5, sedangkan level support di 1.4240 dan kemudian pada 1.4014.

Poundsterling minggu lalu umumnya fluktuatif terhadap dollar dan berakhir flat di level 1.6324. Untuk minggu ini, level resistance terdekat menjadi pada 1.6461 dan kemudian 1.6878, sedang support berada pada 1.6224 dan kemudian 1.6092.

Untuk USD/JPY minggu lalu bergerak melemah ditutup di 83.23 sebagai bentuk koreksi teknikal di tengah pelemahan kembali USD. Pasar di minggu ini berada di antara resistance pada 86.00, serta support level pada 81.55.

Sementara itu, Aussie dollar terpantau seminggu lewat masih kembali menguat setelah sempat terkoreksi, terangkat kenaikan harga komoditas yang berakhir di 1.0554. Range minggu ini antara resistance 1.07 dan 1.10 sementara support level di 1.0283 dan 1.0203.

Untuk pasar di Stock Index Futures, pada minggu lalu di regional Asia umumnya tertahan atau melemah dengan tingginya data inflasi di China dan proyeksi IMF akan pertumbuhan ekonomi global yang berkurang.

Indeks

Nikkei minggu lalu agak tertekan yang berakhir melemah pada 9590. Minggu ini, akan menemui level resistance terdekat di 9824 dan kemudian mulai menembus level 10,000 ke level 10325. Adapun support pada level 9305 dan lalu 8370.

Sementara itu, Indeks Hangseng Berjangka di Hong Kong minggu lalu juga tergerus, ditutup di level 23965. Minggu ini akan berada dalam range level resistance di 24460 dan berikutnya 24945, sementara support-nya di 22966 dan selanjutnya 22098.

Bursa saham Wall Street minggu lalu alami juga koreksi terutama S&P500 oleh data earnings beberapa emiten besar yang lebi rendah dari perkiraan. Dow Jones Industrial minggu ini akan berusaha menjumpai level resistance terdekat 12459 serta 13135, sementara support di level 12160 dan kemudian pada 11555. Index S&P 500 minggu lalu tertekan, sehingga market range saat ini antara resistance di level 1340 dan 1404, sementara level support berada di 1250 dan 1218.

Untuk Pasar Emas, minggu lalu secara tak terbendung kembali terus mencetak rekor tertinggi baru sepanjang sejarahnya di beberapa level baru sehingga berakhir di $1486.65/troy ounce akibat pilihan safe haven investment. Untuk minggu ini emas akan berpeluang menanjak lagi, walau perlu diwaspadai koreksi pasar, dengan rentang berada antara resistance pada $1500/troy ounce, sementara support ada di $1440.00/troy ounce serta berikut $1418/troy ounce. Di Indonesia, harganya menanjak tajam ke sekitar Rp 414 ribu/gramnya, di mana kenaikan emas global tertunjang oleh konsolidasi mata uang rupiah.

Posted with WordPress for BlackBerry.


Market Outlook 11 – 16 April 2011


Market Outlook 11 – 16 April 2011


Pertempuran di Libya yang telah merusak kawasan ladang Minyak, menyebabkan produksi minyak terus menurun dan harga minyak mentah terus melambung hingga di atas $113/barrel.

Emas juga mengalami kenaikkan hingga kembali mencetak rekor tertinggi dalam sejarah, di atas $1,474.00. /troy ounce Pelaku pasar menargetkan Emas naik ke $1,500/troy ounce.

German ZEW economic sentiment, level indeks gabungan berdasarkan pada survei investor dan analis di institusi Jerman di prediksi kembali mengalami penurunan, sebesar 12.2, dari 14.1. Apabila di rilis kembali turun, maka akan menyebabkan koreksi bagi penguatan Euro.

Trade balance, selisih nilai antara barang ekspor dan impor di Amerika Serikat di prediksi mengalami sedikit kenaikkan, sebesar -44.1B, dari -46.3B. Apabila di rilis di atas -44.1B, maka Dollar akan mengalami koreksi dari pelemehannya.

Retail sales, Perubahan nilai total inflasi pada level retail di Amerika Serikat di prediksi mengalami penurunan, sebesar 0.6%, dari 1.0%. Apabila di rilis di bawah  0.6%, maka akan menambah pelemahan Dollar terhadap mata uang utama.

G7 (Group of Seven) meeting, pertemuan yang dihadiri oleh menteri keuangan dan gubernur bank sentral dari 7 negara-negara industri (Kanada, Italia, Prancis, Jerman, Jepang, Inggris, dan Amerika Serikat), pertemuan ini membahas mengenai  kebijakan finansial global. Baik komentar ataupun pernyataan akan membuat volatilitas pasar yang signifikan.

Prelim UoM consumer sentiment, level indeks gabungan berdasarkan survei konsumen di Amerika Serikat di prediksi mengalami sedikit kenaikan, sebesar 68.8, dari 67.5. Apabila di rilis di atas 68.8, maka akan sedikit mengangkat Dollar dari rival utamanya.

Untuk indikator ekonomi global, pada pekan mendatang tidak banyak rilis berita ekonomi global yang penting. Ada event pertemuan G7, G20 dan IMF pada minggu ini. Secara umum, rilis data ekonomi yang kiranya perlu diperhatikan investor minggu ini, adalah:

• Dari kawasan Amerika: berupa rilis data Core Retail Sales pada Rabu malam; lalu data inflasi sisi produsen PPI (Producer Price Index) dan data tenaga kerja Unemployment Claims mingguan yang biasa menjadi perhatian pasar dirilis pada Kamis malam; kemudian data inflasi sisi konsumen CPI (Consumer Price Index), kepemilikan asing atas surat berharga jangka panjang Amerika atau TIC Long-Term Purchases, serta Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment semuanya pada Jumat malam.

o Dari kawasan Inggris dan Eropa: berupa data German ZEW Economic Sentiment pada Selasa sore; lalu data tenaga kerja Inggris Claimant Count Change pada Rabu sore.

o Dari China: data inflasi dan GDP kuartalan pada Jumat pagi nanti.

Minggu lalu di Pasar Forex, nilai tukar mata uang dollar kembali melemah terutama terhadap euro yang ECB-nya mengambil keputusan menaikkan suku bunga acuannya, sehingga berakhir untuk index dollar di level 74.860. Pekan yang lalu euro kembali menanjak sehubungan dengan direalisasikannya kenaikan suku bunga Eropa sebesar 25 bp pada Kamis lalu, dengan euro berakhir di level 1.4453, merupakan level 15 bulan tertingginya. Untuk minggu ini market range-nya akan berada antara resistance berikut pada 1.4560 dan mengarah ke 1.5, sedangkan level support di 1.4240 dan kemudian pada 1.4014.

Poundsterling minggu lalu umumnya juga menguat terhadap dollar, sekitar 300 poin, ke level 1.6361, setelah menyentuh resistance 1.64 yang diprediksi minggu sebelumnya. Untuk minggu ini, level resistance terdekat menjadi pada 1.6878 dan kemudian 1.7064, sedang support berada pada 1.6092 dan kemudian 1.5930. Untuk USDJPY minggu lalu terus bergerak menguat ditutup di 84.83 di tengah risiko termasuk gempa bumi susulan yangb ikut melemahkan yen. Pasar di minggu ini berada di antara resistance pada 86.00, serta support level pada 83.77 dan 81.55. Sementara itu, Aussie dollar terpantau seminggu lewat terus menguat mencetak posisi rekor tertingginya sepanjang sejarah oleh kenaikan harga komoditas serta berakhir di 1.0531. Range minggu ini antara resistance 1.07 dan 1.10 sementara support level di 1.0300 dan 1.0203.

Untuk pasar di Stock Index Futures, pada minggu lalu sehubungan dengan positifnya data ekonomi di Amerika dan berkurangnya kekuatiran investor terhadap situasi di Jepang telah memberikan nuansa positif bagi bursa regional. Indeks Nikkei minggu lalu yang sempat terguncang getaran gampa bumi yang baru, berfluktuasi yang berakhir flat pada 9740. Minggu ini, dari level resistance saat ini pasar akan berpeluang untuk mulai menembus level 10,000 dalam rentangan resistance terdekat pada 10325 dan level berikutnya di 10650. Adapun support pada level 9305 dan lalu 8370. Sementara itu, Indeks Hang Seng berjangka di Hong Kong minggu lalu juga menanjak, ditutup di level 24249. Minggu ini akan masih positif berada dalam range level resistance di 24480 dan berikutnya 24945, sementara support-nya di 22966 selanjutnya 22098.

Bursa saham Wall Street minggu lalu agak tertahan laju kenaikkannya di tengah kekuatiran investor terhadap harga tinggi minyak dunia yang dapat menekan pertumbuhan ekonomi secara global. Dow Jones Industrial minggu ini akan berusaha menjumpai level resistance 13135 serta 14200, sementara support di level 11950 dan kemudian pada 11555. Index S&P 500 minggu lalu mengalami tekanan konsolidasi; sehingga market range saat ini antara resistance di level 1404, sementara level support berada di 1250 dan 1218.

Untuk Pasar Emas, minggu lalu secara tak terbendung terus mencetak rekor tertinggi sepanjang sejarahnya di beberapa level baru sehingga berakhir kinclong di $1473.25/troy ounce akibat pilihan safe haven investment. Untuk sepekan ke depan emas akan berpeluang mulai menanjak lagi, dengan rentang berada antara resistance terdekat pada $1480 lalu level $1500. Sementara itu, support ada di $1418.00/troy ounce serta berikut $1410.00/troy ounce. Di Indonesia, harganya menanjak di sekitar Rp409 ribu/gram nya, di mana kenaikan emas global ditahan dengan rupiah yang sedang mengalami apresiasi.

Di antara peningkatan risiko secara global, ada saja asset investasi yang malah mencetak rekor tertinggi barunya, misalnya emas. Itu sebabnya kalau ingin sukses di dunia investasi, jangan takut risiko. Risiko sudah jadi bagian inherent dari transaksi investasi, seperti dua sisi mata uang antara risk dan gain. Risiko tinggal dikelola.


Market Outlook, 7 – 12 March 2011


 

Naiknya data Non-Farm Payroll dan turunnya jumlah pengangguran di Amerika Serikat di respon negatif oleh pelaku pasar pada akhir pekan lalu. Hal ini di buktikan dengan tetap melemahnya Dollar terhadap rival utamanya. Kepala Bank sentral Eropa mengatakan bahwa tingkat suku bunga bisa dinaikkan secepatnya pada pertemuan mendatang, April 2011, untuk mengatasi inflasi di benua Eropa. Hal ini membuat Euro tetap melambung terhadap Dollar pada akhir pekan lalu.

 

Employment Change, Perubahan jumlah tenaga kerja di Asutralia di prediksi mengalami penurunan, sebesar 21.500, setelah bulan lalu mengalami kenaikan, sebesar 24.000. Apabila di rilis di atas 24.000, maka akan berdampak positif bagi Aussie. Jumlah pengangguran di Australia yang aktif mencari pekerjaan di prediksi kembali tidak ada perubahan dari 2 bulan sebelumnya ,tetap 5.0%. Apabila Unemployment Rate ini di rilis di bawah 5.0%, maka akan menambah penguatan bagi Aussie. RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) Gov Stevens Speaks, Gubernur Bank of Australia akan menyampaikan pernyataannya mengenai kebijakan moneter Australia, dan kebijakan ekonomi yang di tempuh kedepannya pada 10 Maret 2011. Pernyataan yang optimistik akan menguntungkan Aussie.

 

Selisih nilai antara barang ekspor dan impor di China di prediksi kembali menurun sebesar 4.9B, dari 6.5B. Selama 2 bulan berturut-turut Trade Balance China mengalami penurunan. Apabila bulan ini kembali mengalami penurunan, maka akan berdampak negatif bagi indeks saham utama Asia.

 

Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Rate Statement dan Official Bank Rate, BoE (Bank of England) akan menyampaikan pernyataannya mengenai kebijakan moneter dan perekonomian Inggris kedepannya, pada 10 Maret 2011. Di ikuti dengan dirilisnya suku bunga, di prediksi suku bunga tetap di 0.50%. BOE (Bank of England) Gov King Speaks, Gubernur Bank of England – Mervyn King, akan menyampaikan pidatonya pada 12 Maret 2011 mengenai kebijakan moneter Inggris. Pernyataan yang optimistik akan menguntungkan Pound sterling.

 

Trade Balance Amerika di prediksi sedikit menurun sebesar -41.3B, dan Retail Sales di prediksi mengalami kenaikan sebesar 0.6%, setelah 2 bulan berturut-turut menurun. Apabila pekan ini keduanya di rilis naik, maka akan berdampak positif bagi Dollar.

 

Untuk indikator ekonomi global, pada pekan mendatang akan diisi beberapa rilis berita ekonomi penting, di antaranya pengumuman suku bunga di New Zealand dan Inggris; keduanya diperkirakan bertahan tetap. Secara umum rilis data ekonomi yang kiranya perlu diperhatikan investor minggu ini, adalah:

 

Dari kawasan Amerika: berupa rilis data Neraca Perdagangan serta data tenaga kerja Unemployment Claims mingguan yang biasa menjadi perhatian pasar dirilis pada Kamis malam; kemudian data Retail Sales serta sentimen konsumen atau Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment di Jumat malam.

o Dari kawasan Inggris dan Eropa: berupa pengumuman suku bunga dari MPC Inggris pada Kamis sore yang kemungkinan tetap di 0.5% yang akan jadi perhatian investor.

o Dari kawasan Australia: berupa pengumuman suku bunga New Zealand (RBNZ) pada Kamis dini hari yang kemungkinan bertahan di 3%, walau ada yang sebutkan akan turun ke 2.75%.

Minggu lalu di pasar Forex, nilai tukar mata uang dollar bergerak melemah kembali terhadap kelompok major currencies lainnya di antara signal kuat bahwa ECB akan segera menaikkan suku bunganya sementara the Fed masih bertahan menjaga kestabilan harga umum, dengan index dollar AS berakhir di level 76.400.

Sementara itu, pekan yang lalu Euro masih cenderung menguat setelah pimpinan ECB, Trichet sendiri menyinggung akan mungkin menaikkan suku bunga bulan depan, dengan euro berakhir di level 1.3982. Untuk minggu berjalan ini market range akan berada antara level resistance pada 1.4278 dan berikutnya di 1.4560, sedangkan level support di 1.3703 dan kemudian pada 1.3423.

Poundsterling minggu lalu umumnya menguat terhadap dollar ke level 1.6268. Untuk minggu ini, level resistance terdekat pada 1.6460 dan kemudian 1.6878, sedang support berada pada 1.6030 dan kemudian 1.5960.

 

Untuk USDJPY minggu lalu cenderung menguat walau masih dalam rentang pasar yang sama selama ini. Pasar di minggu ini berada di antara resistance pada 83.90 dan 84.50, serta support level pada 80.90 dan 80.22. Sementara itu, Aussie dollar terpantau seminggu lewat dalam konsolidasi pasar 1.0135. Range minggu ini tetap antara resistance 1.0230 dan 1.03 sementara support level di 0.9945 dan 0.9794.

Untuk pasar di Stock Index Futures, pada minggu lalu indeks Nikkei mengalami penguatan secara terbatas tertopang oleh melemahnya yen yang memberi dukungan ekspor negeri Jepang, berakhir di 10585. Minggu ini Nikkei berjangka akan dalam rentangan resistance terdekat pada 10900 dan level berikutnya di 11210. Adapun support pada level 10350 dan lalu 10150. Sementara itu, Indeks Hang Seng Berjangka di Hong Kong minggu lalu juga merangkak naik, ditutup di level 22321. Minggu ini akan berada dalam range level resistance di 24000 dan berikutnya 24945, sementara support-nya di 22373 selanjutnya 21520.

Bursa saham Wall Street minggu lalu mengalami konsolidasi, setelah pernah mencapai level 32 bulan tertingginya sejak Juni 2008 untuk S&P 500. Situasi harga minyak yang terus membumbung di tengah panasnya perang saudara Libya yang telah menjadi penyebabnya. Secara teknikal, Dow Jones Industrial minggu ini masih dalam situasi konsolidasi dengan rentang pasar antara level resistance di 12387 dan 12600, sementara support di level 11800 dan kemudian pada 11450. Index S&P 500 minggu lalu juga nyaris flat; di mana resistance sekarang di level 1345 dan 1440, sementara level support berada di 1295 dan 1252.

Untuk pasar Emas, minggu lalu masih menguat mencetak rekor tertinggi yang baru di $1440.00/troy ounce oleh memanasnya situasi geopolitik di khususnya Libya. Emas di LLG minggu lalu berakhir pada level $1429.10/troy ounce. Untuk sepekan ke depan emas akan diuji untuk menyentuh level rekor tertinggi barunya di $1440.00/troy ounce dengan rentang berada antara resistance terdekat pada $1440.00/troy ounce lalu level $1450.00/troy ounce Sementara itu, support ada di $1393 serta support berikut $1307.00. /troy ounce Di Indonesia, harganya terus menanjak ke level harga Rp403 ribu per gramnya, walaupun rupiah sedang terapresiasi.

Situasi geopolitik kawasan Arab dan Timur Tengah masih tetap panas. Barangkali ini masih akan berlangsung terus untuk waktu yang tidak sebentar. Apa yang akan terjadi nantinya di kawasan yang dikenal sejak dulu sebagai hot spot? Sejumlah prediksi sebelum ini tentang komoditas dan pergerakan bursa ternyata akurat di antara gejolak kawasan yang terjadi. Di tengah gejolak investor bisa tetap untung itulah baiknya investasi.


Market Outlook 28 February – 5 March 2011


Market Outlook 28 February – 5 March 2011

Cash Rate, tingkat suku bunga untuk deposit yang menginap di Australia di prediksi tidak ada perubahan, tetap 4.75%. Apabila pada 1 Maret 2011 ini di rilis di atas 4.75%, maka akan berdampak positif bagi Aussie. RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) Rate Statement, Bank sentral Australia pada 1 Maret akan menyampaikan pernyataan mengenai kebijakan moneter dan penentuan tingkat suku bunga Aussie kedepan. Pernyataan yang optimistik akan menguntungkan Aussie.
ADP (Automatic Data Processing) NFP (Non-Farm Payroll), Jumlah tenaga kerja  baru dari sektor non pertanian di Amerika Serikat berdasarkan proses Automatic Data Processing di prediksi mengalami penurunan tipis, sebesar 180.000. ADP NFP ini merupakan acuan dari data NFP yang akan di rilis hari Jumat akhir pekan ini.
Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies dan Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, kepala Bank sentral Amerika Serikat – Ben Bernanke pada tanggal 1, 2, dan 3 Maret 2011 akan menyampaikan pidato mengenai kondisi dan kebijakan ekonomi Amerika Serikat, khususnya tingkat suku bunga kedepan. Pernyataan yang optimistik akan menguntungkan Dollar.
Trade Balance, Selisih nilai antara barang ekspor dan impor di Australia yang akan di rilis 3 Maret 2011 di prediksi mengalami penurunan, sebesar 1.56B. Aapbila di rilis di bawah 1.56B, maka akan berdampak negatif bagi Aussie.
ECB (European Central Bank) Press Conference dan Minimum Bid Rate, Bank Sentral Eropa pada 3 Maret 2011 akan menyampaikan pandangannya mengenai perekonomian Eropa dan suku bunga kedepan, di prediksi suku bunga tetap di 1.00%.
NFP (Non-Farm Payroll), Jumlah tenaga kerja  baru dari sektor non pertanian di Amerika Serikat kembali di prediksi mengalami kenaikan tajam, sebesar 176.000, setelah bulan sebelumnya anjlok sebesar 36.000.

Unemployment Rate, Jumlah pengangguran di Amerika Serikat yang aktif mencari pekerjaan di prediksi mengalami kenaikan tipis, sebesar 9.1%, bulan sebelumnya 9.0%. Apabila di rilis di bawah 9.1%, maka akan berdampak positif bagi Dollar.

Untuk indikator ekonomi global, pada minggu ini akan diisi ramai rilis berita ekonomi penting, sebagaimana biasanya di awal bulan di antaranya pengumuman suku bunga di Eropa, Australia, dan Indoesia serta data pengangguran di Amerika. Secara umum rilis data ekonomi yang kiranya perlu diperhatikan investor minggu ini, adalah:
• Dari kawasan Amerika: berupa rilis data perumahan Pending Home Sales pada Senin malam; lalu data industry ISM Manufacturing PMI pada Selasa malam; data ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI serta data tenaga kerja Unemployment Claims mingguan yang biasa menjadi perhatian pasar dirilis pada Kamis malam; serta data tenaga kerja Non-Farm Employment Change dan Unemployment Rate di Jumat malam yang akan menjadi pusat perhatian investor.
o Dari kawasan Inggris dan Eropa: berupa data Manufacturing PMI di Inggris pada Selasa sore; data Minimum Bid Rate dari European Central Bank (ECB) akan jadi perhatian investor pada Kamis sore.
o Dari Australia dan China: berupa pengumuman suku bunga Australia (RBA) pada Selasa pagi, berdekatan dengan itu adalah rilis Manufacturing PMI di China.
o Dari Indonesia: berupa pengumuman suku bunga BI rate pada Jumat siang bersama data inflasi.
Minggu lalu di pasar Forex, nilai tukar mata uang dollar bergerak melemah kembali terhadap kelompok major currencies lainnya di antara isyu bahwa ECB mungkin akan menaikkan suku bunganya sementara the Fed masih belum akan menaikkan suku bunganya dalam waktu dekat ini, dengan index dollar AS berakhir di level 77.230. Sementara itu, pekan yang lalu euro masih cenderung menguat walau hampir rangebound setelah pimpinan Bundesbank menyebutkan bahwa satunya pilihan bagi ECB adalah menaikkan suku bunga, berakhir di level 1.3750. Untuk minggu berjalan ini market range akan berada antara level resistance pada 1.4080 dan berikutnya di 1.4278, sedangkan level support di 1.3423 dan kemudian pada 1.3240.
Poundsterling minggu lalu umumnya melemah vs dollar agak terbatas ke level 1.6114, terkoreksi dari trend-up rally-nya selama ini. Untuk minggu ini, level resistance terdekat masih pada 1.6300 dan kemudian 1.6460, sedang support berada pada 1.5960 dan kemudian 1. 5745.
Untuk USD/JPY minggu lalu cenderung terkoreksi. Pasar di minggu ini berada di antara resistance pada 83.90 dan 84.50, serta support level pada 80.90 dan 80.22.
Sementara itu, Aussie dollar terpantau seminggu lewat masih menguat terbatas oleh kenaikan komoditas minyak ditutup pada level 1.0174. Range minggu ini tetap antara resistance 1.0230 dan 1.03 sementara support level di 0.9945 dan 0.9794.
Untuk pasar di Stock Index Futures, pada minggu lalu indeks Nikkei tergerus akibat sentiment negative geopolitik di Libya, berakhir di 10540. Minggu ini Nikkei berjangka akan dalam rentangan resistance terdekat pada 10900 dan level berikutnya di 11210. Adapun support pada level 10178 dan lalu 9906.
Sementara itu, Indeks Hang Seng Berjangka di Hong Kong minggu lalu juga melorot, ditutup di level 22922. Minggu ini akan berada dalam range level resistance di 23605 dan berikutnya 24000, sementara support-nya di 22415 selanjutnya 21520.
Bursa saham Wall Street minggu lalu mengalami koreksi, yang terbesar dalam tiga bulan terakhir, setelah mencapai level 32 bulan tertingginya sejak Juni 2008 untuk S&P 500. Situasi Libya telah menjadi penyebab utamanya. Demikianpun, Dow Jones Industrial minggu ini masih dalam area bullish-trend kepada level resistance berikutnya di 12400 dan 12600, sementara support di level 11800 dan kemudian pada 11450. Index S&P 500 minggu lalu juga alami korekwsi; resistance sekarang di level 1345 dan 1440, sementara level support berada di 1295 dan 1252.
Untuk pasar Emas, minggu lalu masih menguat, walau agak tertahan, setelah sebelumnya alami rally terpanjang selama enam bulan. Emas di LLG minggu lalu berakhir pada level $1408.15/troy ounce. Untuk sepekan ke depan emas akan diuji untuk menyentuh level rekor tertinggi di $1431.00/troy ounce tanggal 17 Desember lalu, dengan rentang berada antara resistance terdekat pada $1431.00/troy ounce lalu level $1450.00/troy ounce Sementara itu, support ada di $1345.00 /troy ounce serta support berikut $1307.00. /troy ounce

Akan kemana situasi geopolitik kawasan Arab dan Timur Tengah kedepannya? Bagaimana jejak pemulihan ekonomi Amerika? Dana asing di Indonesia mau ke mana? Inflasi akan bagaimana nantinya? … Sejumlah pikiran dan pandangan tentang hal-hal tersebut sedang ramai digunjingkan. Masalahnya bagi investor itu mempengaruhi pergerakan harga aset investasi.


Market Outlook


via Flickr”]Organizing monetary policy and decides about i...

Market Outlook 7 – 12 February 2011

Para pelaku pasar nampaknya masih berhati-hati menyikapi anjloknya data NFP (Non Farm Payroll). Hal ini bisa di lihat dengan tidak banyaknya pergerakan Dollar terhadap mata uang utama dunia pada akhir pekan lalu.

Data Non Farm Payroll anjlok akan tetapi jumlah pengangguran di Amerika mengalami banyak penurunan, sebesar 9.0%, dari 9.4%. Hal inilah yang membuat para pelaku pasar masih berhati-hati dengan Dollar.

Retail Sales, Perubahan nilai total inflasi di Australia pada sektor retail di prediksi naik sebesar 0.5%, dari 0.3%. Apabila di rilis di atas 0.5%, maka akan men-support Aussie mendekati level tertinggi terhadap Dollar.

Employment Change, Perubahan jumlah tenaga kerja di Asutralia di prediksi kembali mengalami kenaikan, sebesar 20.300, setelah bulan lalu mengalami penurunan tajam akibat banjir besar. Apabila di rilis di atas 20.300 maka akan berdampak positif bagi Aussie.

Unemployment Rate, Jumlah pengangguran di Australia yang aktif mencari pekerjaan di prediksi tidak ada perubahan dari bulan lalu, tetap 5.0%. Apabila di rilis di bawah 5.0%, maka akan menambah penguatan bagi Aussie.

Trade Balance, Selisih nilai antara barang ekspor dan impor di China di prediksi kembali menurun sebesar 10.3B, dari 13.1B. Apabila Trade Balance mengalami kenaikan, maka akan berdampak positif bagi Saham utama China dan Asia, karena  China merupakan Negara yang berpengaruh terhadap pergerakan saham-saham Asia.

Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Rate Statement dan Official Bank Rate, BoE (Bank of England) akan menyampaikan pernyataan-pernyataan mengenai kondisi ekonomi Inggris, dan kebijakan yang di tempuh kedepannya. Di ikuti dengan di rilisnya suku bunga, di prediksi suku bunga tetap di 0.50%.

Trade Balance, Selisih nilai antara barang ekspor dan impor di Amerika di prediksi mengalami penurunan sebesar -40.4B, setelah 3 bulan terakhir berturut-turut mengalami kenaikan. Apabila Trade Balance mengalami kenaikan, maka akan berdampak positif bagi Dollar.

Untuk indikator ekonomi global, pada pekan mendatang akan diisi beberapa saja rilis berita ekonomi penting, di antaranya pengumuman suku bunga di Inggris yang diperkirakan masih tetap bertahan di level sebelumnya. China masih akan libur panjang Imlek sampai dengan Selasa depan. Secara umum, rilis data ekonomi yang kiranya perlu diperhatikan investor minggu ini, adalah:

Dari kawasan Amerika: berupa rilis data Unemployment Claims mingguan yang biasa menjadi perhatian pasar –pada Kamis malam; kemudian Trade Balance atau Neraca Perdagangan dan Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment di Jumat malam.

o Dari kawasan Inggris dan Eropa: berupa data Manufacturing Production Inggris pada Kamis petang dilanjutkan dengan pengumuman suku bunga Inggris yang kemungkinan bertahan di level 0.5%. Namun demikian, investor global sedang menantikan hasil MPC meeting yang bisa mengindikasikan bertambahnya kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga pada periode berikutnya.

o Dari Australia: berupa pengumuman Retail Sales pada Senin pagi, lalu Unemployment Rate pada Kamis pagi.

Minggu lalu di pasar forex, nilai tukar mata uang dollar cukup volatile dengan melorot di awal minggu dan rebound di tengah sampai akhir minggu, lebih karena fluktuasi euro, dengan index dollar AS berakhir di level 78.020, terangkat juga oleh menurunnya tingkat pengangguran di AS.

Pekan yang lalu euro sempat mengalami rally sampai level 12 minggu tertinggi menjelang hari pengumuman rate ECB namun kemudian terpangkas hampir 250 pips setelah Trichet menyebutkan bahwa infasi di Eropa tergolong “moderat” dan berakhir di level 1.3589, nyaris flat dengan level penutupan minggu sebelumnya. Untuk minggu berjalan ini market range akan berada antara level resistance pada 1.3858 dan berikutnya di 1.4278, sedangkan level support di 1.3240 dan kemudian pada 1.2867.

Poundsterling minggu lalu umumnya menguat vs dollar tapi terpangkas di akhir minggu ke level 1. 6099, sejalan dengan membaiknya data pengangguran AS. Untuk minggu ini, level resistance terdekat pada 1.6300 dan kemudian 1.6460, sedang support berada pada 1.5745 dan kemudian 1.5340.

Untuk USDJPY minggu lalu cenderung menguat terbatas, dengan kenaikan USD secara global. Pasar di minggu ini nampaknya masih sama berada di antara support level 80.90 dan 80.22, serta resistance pada 83.67 dan 84.50. Sementara itu, Aussie dollar terpantau seminggu lewat menguat oleh prespek ekonomi dan kenaikan inflasi; ditutup pada level 1.0140. Range minggu ini tetap antara resistance 1.0230 dan 1.03 sementara support level di 0.9794.

Untuk pasar di stock index futures, pada minggu lalu indeks Nikkei menguat sekitar 300 poin oleh membaiknya perkembangan bisnis, berakhir di 10540. Minggu nanti Nikkei berjangka akan dalam rentangan resistance terdekat pada 10630 yang bila tembus akan mengarah ke level berikutnya di 11393. Adapun support pada level 10150 dan lalu 9906. Sementara itu, Indeks Hang Seng berjangka di Hong Kong minggu lalu sempat tergelincir namun kemudian merangkak naik 730 poin, ditutup di level 23958. Minggu ini akan berada dalam range level resistance di 24477 dan berikutnya 24945, sementara support-nya di 23280 selanjutnya 22375.

Bursa saham Wall Street minggu lalu menguat terus di tengah keyakinan investor akan membaiknya fundamental ekoonomi AS –merupakan minggu terbaik di bursa dalam dua bulan terakhir. Dow Jones Industrial minggu ini masih dalam bullish-trend menjelang level resistance berikutnya ke 12600, sementara support di level 11515 dan kemudian pada 11320. Index S&P 500 minggu lalu juga menguat; resistance sekarang di level 1400, sementara level support berada di 1252 dan 1218.

Untuk pasar emas, minggu lalu menguat sebagai pilihan safe haven di tengah memanasnya situasi Mesir dan kawasan Arab. Emas di LLG minggu lalu berakhir pada level $1349.55 per troy ounce, terakhir sempat tergerus oleh penguatan dollar. Untuk sepekan ke depan emas akan cenderung positif, berada antara level support di $1307 serta support berikut $1275 per troy ounce. Sementara itu, resistance terdekat pada $1393 lalu level $1432.

Situasi politik terbukti mempunyai dampak kepada pergerakan arah pasar investasi. Apa yang terjadi di Mesir yang berdampak kepada bursa, baik bursa saham maupun komoditas, menunjukkan ada sejumlah factor non-ekonomi yang dapat menggerakkan pasar. Besar kecil dampaknya tergantung dari tingkat besaran (magnitude) dari factor itu sendiri. Saat ini Mesir masih bergejolak. Mungkin saja berikutnya beberapa negara lain di kawasan Arab akan ikut bergolak. Dalam situasi yang tidak menentu ini disarankan jadilah investor yang bijak.


Market Outlook 17 – 22 January 2011


Laporan tenaga kerja Amerika Serikat yang mengecewakan, serta tetapnya suku bunga di Inggris dan Eropa, membuat Dollar semakin tertekan selama sepekan kemarin terhadap Pound sterling dan Euro. Ben Bernanke mengatakan bahwa, pemulihan ekonomi Amerika Serikat sedang mendapat daya tarik dan siap untuk tumbuh hingga 4% pada tahun ini. Hal ini belum bisa men-support Dallar dari tekanan Pounds dan Euro.
Terhadap Australian Dollar, Dollar tetap menguat yang didorong oleh banjir besar yang melanda di Australia, sehingga jumlah tenaga kerja langsung turun tajam dan ekspor batubara jadi terhambat.Emaskembali di tutup turun tajam dalam perdagangan akhir pekan lalu yang hampir menyentuh level terendah tahun ini di 1355. Kemungkinan tahun ini harga emas bisa menyentuh rekor tertinggi.Claimant Count Chage,  perubahan jumlah warga Inggris yang mengklaim keuntungan yang berkaitan dengan pengangguran bulan ini di prediksi mengalami perbaikan. Apabila di rilis di bawah ekspektasi ekonom, maka akan menambah penguatan bagi Pounds.German ZEW Economic Sentiment dan German Ifo Business Climate, Level indeks gabungan berdasarkan survei investor dan analis institusi Jerman, dan Level indeks gabungan terhadap manufaktur, bangunan, grosir dan pengecer. Laporan keduanya bulan ini di prediksi mengalami peningkatan.Untuk indikator ekonomi global, pada mingg ini akan diisi sedikit rilis berita ekonomi penting, sementara di Amerika pada hari Senin ini libur hari Martin Luther King. Secara umum, rilis data ekonomi yang kiranya perlu diperhatikan investor minggu ini, adalah:•
Dari kawasan Amerika: berupa rilis data TIC Long-Term Purchases pada Selasa malam; lalu Building Permits pada Rabu malam; Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Existing Home Sales serta Unemployment Claims mingguan yang biasa menjadi perhatian pasar –semuanya pada Kamis malam.
o
Dari kawasan Inggris dan Eropa: berupa German ZEW Economic Sentiment dari Eropa (ECB) pada Selasa petang; dan, German Ifo Business Climate serta Retail Sales Inggris pada Jumat sore.
Minggu lalu di pasar forex, mata uang dollar secara umum melemah secara cukup berarti oleh buruknya data retail sales dan keyakinan konsumen, dengan index dollar AS berakhir di level 79.100 dari level 81’an sebelumnya. Pekan yang lalu euro menguat terbantu oleh masih kuatnya permintaan terhadap lelang surat berharga di Portugal dan Spanyol dan berakhir di 1.3372, bangkit dari level 1.29 mingu sebelumnya. Untuk minggu berjalan ini market range akan berada antara level support di 1.2867 dan kemudian pada 1.2586, sementara resistance pada 1.35 dan berikutnya di 1.3780.Poundsterlingminggu lalu melejit menguat vs dollar sekitar 400 pips ke level 1.5871, lebih tajam dari penguatan euro. Untuk minggu ini, level resistance terdekat pada 1.5916 dan kemudian 1.6088, sedang support berada pada 1.5340 dan kemudian 1.5130. Untuk USDJPY minggu lalu cenderung stabil di level 82’an. Pasar di minggu ini nampaknya masih sama berada di antara support level 80.90 dan 80.22, serta resistance pada 84.50 dan 86.00. Sementara itu, Aussie dollar terpantau seminggu lewat melemah tipis dan ditutup pada level 0.9894. Range minggu ini tetap antara resistance 1.0224 dan support level di 0.9794 dan 0.9540.Untuk pasar di stock index futures, pada minggu lalu indeks Nikkei melanjutkan penguatannya di minggunya yang kedua pada level delapan bulan tertingginya di 10560. Minggu nanti akan menghadapi resistance terdekat pada 10657 yang bila tembus akan mengarah ke level berikutnya di 11393. Adapun support pada level 9906 dan lalu 9685. Sementara itu, Indeks Hang Seng berjangka di Hong Kong minggu lalu juga menguat di minggu yang ketiganya, berakhir di level 24349, tertinggi dalam dua setengah tahun terakhir. Minggu ini akan berada dalam range level resistance di 24945 dan berikutnya 24945, sementara support-nya di 23450 selanjutnya 22375.
Bursa saham Wall Street minggu lalu masih terus menguat untuk minggunya yang ketujuh, rally terpanjang sejak bulan Mei 2007, didorong oleh optimism pasar akan penghasilan para emiten dan upaya positif dari kawasan Eropa untuk mengatasi krisi hutang. Dow Jones Industrial minggu ini masih terus dalam trend-up secara teknikal menjelang level resistance berikutnya 11895 mengarah ke 12600, sementara support di level 11515 dan kemudian pada 11320. Index S&P 500 minggu ini masih dalam trend ke arah resistance di sekitar 1300, sementara level support berada di 1252 dan 1218.Untuk pasar Emas, minggu lalu kembali mengalami penurunan setelah euro mengalami salah satu minggu rally terbaiknya, yang menyurutkan pilihan permintaan emas sebagai bentuk safe haven, berakhir pada level $1359.55/troy ounce. Untuk sepekan ke depan emas akan menguji level support terdekat di $1350.00/troy ounce yang bila tembus akan mengarah bertahap ke support berikut $1314/troy ounce. Sementara itu, resistance terdekat pada $1393.00/troy ounce lalu level $1432.00/troy ounce


Market Review Eropa


Market Review EROPA :

Euro tidak dapat mempertahankan momentum penguatan dan diperdagangkan melemah akibat aktivitas profit taking seiring dengan kekhawatiran krisis utang sovereign yang masih menghantui lelang obligasi Portugal. Di saat bersamaan dollar Australia anjlok terhadap Dollar AS karena peringatan dari pemerintah Australia atas kemungkinan kehancuran lebih lanjut dari banjir yang terjadi di Queensland. Pasar modal Eropa masih naik pada hari Rabu setelah diumumkan hasil lelang penting Portugal dimana tampak para pedagang sedikit lega akibat pertimbangan perpanjangan dana talangan bagi negara-negara zona Eropa yang bermasalah dengan utang.


Review Index Hangseng dan Emas


Hang Seng Index news is everywhere

Image by renaissancechambara via Flickr

Kamis, 06 Januari 2011

HANGSENG

Setelah kemarin ditutup di kisaran kuatnya, indeks bursa Hong Kong-Hang Seng kemungkinan masih akan bertahan di level penguatannya di hari Kamis.
Kondisi ini terkait saham-saham sektor komoditi yang cenderung terus mengalami penguatan, bahkan sebagian besar kalangan analis yakin bahwa fundamental jangka panjang serta meningkatnya prospek ekonomi global akan menopang harga komoditas, sehingga memberi peluang terhadap aksi “buy on dips” untuk saham-saham yang terkait.
Indeks Hang Seng diprediksi akan bergerak diatas 23600 setidaknya dalam range antara 23600 hingga 24000. (By
monexnews.com)

EMAS

Harga emas masih terus bergerak turun hari ini, melanjutkan penurunan tajam kemarin. Data ekonomi yang muncul belakangan menunjukkan peningkatan dalam laju pemulihan ekonomi, hal ini mengurangi jumlah investasi terhadap logam mulia tersebut. Menguatnya USD juga menjadi salah satu faktor yang mendorong harga emas turun hingga di bawah $1375 per troy ons. Selain terhadap emas, USD juga menguat tajam terhadap mata uang mayor lain seperti Euro, GBP dan AUD. Beberapa analis menyebutkan jatuhnya emas kemarin dinilai terlalu banyak, perlu diwaspadai kondisi ekonomi beberapa waktu ke depan, melemahnya harga emas diperkirakan akan berlangsung singkat saja. (By seputarforex.com


Aussie Menguji Paritas


Australian one-dollar coin

Image via Wikipedia

5 Januari 2011   18:27

Anjloknya harga Emas seiring membaiknya outlook perekonomian global dalam 3 hari terakhir telah mendatangkan duka tersendiri bagi Aussie, yang turut terperosok hingga sekitar 250 pips dari posisi tinggi hari Senin di 1.0250. Saat ini Aussie tengah menguji level psikologis 1.000.

Support terdekat dapat dijumpai pada 0.9990 (low sesi/27 Des), kemudian 0.9945 (low 22 Des) dan 0.9915/25 (support intra-day/MA 50-hari). Sementara level resistensi terletak di 1.0035 (resisten intra-day), diikuti oleh 1.0075 (high harian) dan 1.1050 (level intra-day).

Data Berpihak Pada Dollar AS


one hundred dollar colection

Image via Wikipedia

5 Januari 2011   17:26

 

Dollar AS menunjukkan ketangguhan pada perdagangan hari Rabu, pasca serangkaian data memberikan bukti-bukti lebih lanjut tentang keberlangsungan pemulihan ekonomi AS. Sementara koreksi harga komoditas dari posisi tinggi menekan pergerakan Dollar Australia.

Para pelaku pasar mengatakan kenaikan Dollar AS dan penurunan komoditas minggu ini juga didorong oleh pelepasan beberapa posisi investor yang diambil sebelum akhir tahun.
“Pergerakan selama 2 minggu terakhir ini agak berlebihan, karena terjadi dalam kondisi likuiditas tipis. Namun seiring kembali normalnya likuiditas, pasar pun kembali menilai beberapa pergerakan,” kata Sue Trinh, strategist RBC Capital Markets.
Indeks Dollar, yang menjadi acuan nilai greenback terhadap mata uang-mata uang utama, naik 0,24% menjadi 79.635. Indeks ini telah mengumpulkan kenaikan 0,6% dalam minggu ini, dan berusaha mengembalikan sebagian penurunan ketika tergelincir 1,8% minggu lalu. Euro kehilangan sekitar 0,35% untuk diperdagangkan pada kisaran $1.3258, sementara Dollar AS tetap stabil terhadap Yen pada ¥82.05.