Becoming Sophisticated About Risk

Commodity Analysis

Technical Outlook



EUR/USD
Bias netral dalam jangka pendek karena adanya potensi koreksi bullish, khususnya jika harga mampu break diatas area 1.3440 untuk memicu tekanan bullish lebih lanjut menuju setidaknya area 1.3520. Pada pergerakan ke bawah, hanya break dibawah area 1.3385 akan memicu momentum bearish lebih lanjut menuju support kunci 1.3205.∙         

GBP/USD
Bias netral dalam jangka pendek karena adanya potensi koreksi bullish sebelum melanjutkan tren menurun. Resisten terdekat terlihat disekitar area 1.6080, break diatas area tersebut seharusnya memicu tekanan bullish lebih lanjut menguji kembali area 1.6120. Break dibawah area 1.6000 – 1.5985 akan mengubah bias intraday kembali ke bearish menuju 1.5890 dalam jangka yang lebih panjang.∙        

USD/JPY
Bias bullish dalam jangka pendek, khususnya jika harga mampu break diatas 99.00 untuk memicu momentum bullish lebih lanjut menuju setidaknya area 100.60 sebelum menguji kembali  area resisten 101.55. Pada pergerakan kebawah, support terdekat terlihat disekitar area 98.15, break dibawah area tersebut akan membawa harga ke zona netral akibat arah pergerakan menjadi tidak jelas dalam jangka pendek.∙        

USD/CHF
Bias netral dalam jangka pendek dengan rentang potensi perdagangan berada diantara area 0.9090 – 0.9175 dalam jangka pendek. Break konsisten diatas area 0.9175 akan momentum bullish lebih lanjut menguji area 0.9250 sebelum berbalik turun. Pada pergerakan kebawah, hanya break dibawah area 0.9090 akan mengubah bias intraday kembali menjadi bearish menguji kembali area 0.9005.∙        

AUD/USD.
Bias netral dalam jangka pendek dengan rentang potensi perdagangan diantara area 0.9420 – 0.9590. Break konsisten diatas area 0.9590 seharusnya memicu tekanan bullish lebih lanjut menguji kembali area 0.9625 sebelum berbalik melemah. Pada pergerakan kebawah, hanya break 0.9420 akan mengubah bias intraday kembali ke bearish menuju area 0.9385 atau lebih rendah.∙        

XAU/USD
Bias netral dalam jangka pendek, support terdekat terlihat disekitar area 1300, sementara resisten terdekat terlihat disekitar area 1320. Break dibawah area 1300 seharusnya memicu momentum bearish menguji area 1285. Disisi lain, break diatas area 1320 akan menambah tekanan bullish untuk menguji area 1330.∙        

Hang Seng Futures
Bias bearish dalam jangka pendek menguji ke area 22760, break kebawah dari area tersebut seharusnya memicu bearish lanjutan menuju wilayah 22680. Pada sisi lain, resisten terdekat berada di kisaran area 23000, break ke atas dari area tersebut mungkin akan merubah bias menjadi bullish dalam jangka pendek menguji ke area 23100.∙        

Nikkei Futures
Bias netral dalam jangka pendek dengan lebih banyak potensi tekanan turun menguji area 14110. Break dibawah area tersebut seharusnya memicu momentum bearish menguji area 14000. Disisi lain, resisten terdekat terlihat disekitar area 14270, break konsisten diatas area tersebut akan memberikan dorongan pada harga untuk menguji area 14400.∙        

Kospi Futures
Bias masih bearish dalam jangka pendek. Support terdekat terlihat di kisaran area 262.50, break ke bawah dari area tersebut dapat memicu bearish lainnya menuju area kunci support di 261.00 Pada sisi atas, diperlukan break ke atas area 264.20 untuk memicu bullish lanjutan menuju wilayah 265.65. Secara keseluruhan, jika harga mampu break ke atas area 265.65 bias mungkin akan berubah menjadi bullish untuk hari ini.


Minyak Bakal Uji Level $90


Kamis, 04 Agustus 2011 09:29 WIB
TODAY’S ANALYSIS COMMODITY

Jika data perekonomian AS terus memburuk, minyak Nymex dapat anjlok ke level $90/barrel, kata kepala komoditi Mizuho

Securities, Takumi Otsuka. Minyak sedikit menguat di awal perdagangan.

“Sentimen masih sangat bearish terkait kondisi perekonomian di Eropa dan AS yang lemah,”  tambahnya. “Fokus pasar pada data perekonomian AS pekan ini.” Angka pengangguran dirilis hari ini dan nonfarm payrolls dirilis besok (05/08), kedua data sangat berpengaruh pada pasar. USD menguat setelah BoJ melakukan intervensi ke dalam pasar mata uang. Hal ini turut menekan minyak meski berdampak kecil dan hanya sesaat, kata Otsuka.

Minyak Nymex bulan September naik 21 sen menjadi $92.14/barrel, Minyak ICE bulan September naik 2 sen menjadi $113.25/barrel.


Minyak Anjlok Terkait Persediaan Dan Lemahnya Data


Kamis, 04 Agustus 2011 07:52 WIB

TODAY’S ANALYSIS COMMODITY

Harga minyak turun tajam ke tingkat terendahnya dalam sebulan, dihantam oleh peningkatan persediaan minyak AS yang mengangkat kekhawatiran tentang permintaan minyak.

Memburuknya laporan ekonomi AS juga menekan harga minyak, menambah ketidakpastian yang telah menekan harga dalam minggu-minggu terakhir.

Kontral berjangka bensin AS memimpin penurunan harga minyak setelah data pemerintah AS menunjukkan stok bahan bakar meningkat tajam minggu lalu, sementara permintaan selama empat minggu terakhir turun 3.6 persen dari tahun lalu. Ini menambah kekhawatiran tentang konsumsi selama periode puncaknya di musim panas.

Minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman September ditutup dilevel $91.93 per barel, turun $1.86, penutupan terendahnya sejak 27 Juni. Minyak mentah AS telah jatuh selama empat hari di lima hari terakhir.


Investor Buru Safe Haven, Emas Meroket


Kamis, 04 Agustus 2011 10:53 WIB
TODAY’S ANALYSIS COMMODITY

Tindakan investor yang terus memarkir dana tunai ke dalam aset save-haven di tengah kegelisahan sentimen perekonomian makro membuat emas terus melesat. Spot emas di $1,665.70 per troy ons, naik $4.60 dari level penutupan.

Harga berada di bawah rekor tinggi hari Rabu (03/08) di $1,673.19/ons, namun sebagian besar partisipan pasar memperkirakan logam mulia akan terus melambung dalam jangka pendek dan menguji rekor tinggi baru dikarenakan pergolakan ekonomi makro. Deutsche Bank mencatat bahwa emas dapat menembus level $2,000/ons. Data non-farm payrolls AS menjadi data kunci bagi pergerakan emas untuk jangka pendek. Angka yang menurun, mengindikasikan lapangan kerja yang berkurang di negara dengan ekonomi terbesar di dnia. Hal ini akan mendorong emas terus meroket sementara jika angka perekrutan pekerja meningkat dapat menekan pasar.


Minyak Kembali Dekati $100


Selasa, 26 Juli 2011 16:16 WIB

TODAY’S ANALYSIS COMMODITY

Harga minyak naik di sesi London, kembali coba level psikologis $100, setelah  Presiden Obama mendesak pemimpin Republik dan Demokrat untuk mencapai kesepakatan demi naikkan plafon utang AS sehingga dapat hindari default.

Analis cukup optimis parlemen AS akan dapat capai kesepakatan segera; jika ini terjadi maka harga minyak akan menguat seiring cerahnya permintaan konsumen energi terbesar dunia. “Pasar cukup yakin akan ada stimulus lebih lanjut dari perundingan di parlemen dan ini tentunya faktor bullish untuk minyak,” ungkap Jonathan Barrat, petinggi Commodity Broking Services.

“Pada akhir minggu ini, kita mungkin akan melihat kesepakatan dan pasar akan pulih,” kata Tony Nunan, manajer Mitsubishi yang prediksi harga minyak akan bergerak sideways diantara $97 dan $103. Investor juga nantikan cadangan minyak yang akan dirilis Asosiasi Perminyakan AS (API) yang diprediksi berkurang untuk delapan minggu berurutan. (fir)


Emas Sedikit Terkoreksi Setelah Sentuh Rekor


Selasa, 26 Juli 2011 15:54 WIB

TODAY’S ANALYSIS COMMODITY

Emas berjangka akhirnya mengalami koreksi kebawah setelah meraih rekor diatas $1620 per troy ons pada hari Senin kemairn, akibat tidak tercapainya negosiasi kenaikan plafon utang AS di Washington memicu minat aset safe haven.

Terpantau sejauh ini Emas diperdagangkan di level $1,611.04 per troy ons atau turun -0.17% dibandingkan harga pembukaan.
Beberapa minggu terakhir, para investor membeli emas akibat meningkatnya peluang downgrade rating kredit AS meskipun pergerakan di market belum mencerminkan potensi default utang AS, namun Emas sudah mengalami kenaikan 8.7% sejak awal bulan ini. Di saat bersamaan Emas fisik dalam bentuk perhiasan berkarat tinggi, diserbu oleh para investor terutama di Asia.
Menurut kebanyakan analis, ketidakpastian masalah hutang AS atau shock financial lainnya dapat memicu pengalihan resiko para investor ke aset seperti Emas.
Secara teknikal, reli Emas masih berpotensi berlanjut dengan support terdekat terletak di area 1587, dengan potensial target terletak di area 1644, sebelum menuju ke target long term 1757. Di sisi bawahnya, diperlukan penembusan konsisten dibawah area 1604 untuk memicu momentum bearish lebih lanjut menguji area support kunci 1587. Tapi secara keseluruhan, bias intraday masih bullish selama Emas bertahan di atas area tersebut. (Sap)

Crude Dip Offers Bullish Opportunity


By Jamie Saettele,

26 July 2011 15:15 GMT

300 Minute Bars

eliottWaves_oil_2_body_crude.png, Crude Dip Offers Bullish Opportunity

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The rally from the 2009 low is in 3 waves (which is corrective) and the 2 bull legs of the move are roughly equal. The decline however from this year’s high is also corrective and crude broken to a new high for the month. Focus is now on the 100% extension at 103.30. Look higher as long as price is above 93.52.


Gold Could Dip to Support Below 1580


By Jamie Saettele,

26 July 2011 15:15 GMT

300 Minute Bars

eliottWaves_gold_2_body_gold.png, Gold Could Dip to Support Below 1580

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Focus remains on the long term (multiyear) trendline, which is at 1681 this week (increases about $5 a week). A traditional measuring technique reveals a longer term objective of 1692.05 (adding width of consolidation to breakout level). Short term momentum considerations (divergence) and the latest rally possibly being from a triangle warn of a drop into support from current levels. Support is 1575 and 1555.


Cetak Rekor Tinggi, Emas Makin Diminati


Cetak Rekor Tinggi, Emas Makin Diminati

Senin, 25 Juli 2011 08:54 WIB
TODAY’S ANALYSIS COMMODITY

Emas reli di perdagangan Asia terkait ketidak pastian mengenai perundingan batas hutang AS yang membuat logam mulia makin diminati. Emas menyentuh level tertinggi baru di $1,622.49/ons di awal perdagangan.

Pelemahan harga emas pekan lalu dikarenakan akhir dari kesepakatan mengenai paket bantuan bagi Yunani, menurut Barclays Capital. Kekhawatiran mengenai masalah hutang yang masih membebani sentimen pasar dan tingkat inflasi yang semakin tinggi di tengah suku bunga yang rendah, membuat “harga emas turun”, menyebabkan harga terkoreksi untuk sementara.

Spot emas di $1,612.70/ons, naik $12.40 dan perak di $40.43/ons, naik 36 sen dari level penutupan. “Level support perak di $37/ons dan diperkirakan akan menembus $41.08/ons lalu $43/ons,” tambahya.


Gold Approaches Key Support Shift in Appetite to Risk Further Losses


Gold

Gold/USD • NY Spot Close 1487.14

Gold Approaches Key Support- Shift in Appetite to Risk Further Losses

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Bearish

  • Gold Could Fall off a Cliff
  • Gold Price Hurt by Haven Status as Europe Drives Confidence
  • S&P 500 Hints Doubt Bottom, Oil and Gold at Trend-Defining Barriers

With risk appetite returning to markets in full force this week, significant gains in equities coupled with the end of the dollar diluting Fed easing policies are likely to see gold remain on the defensive. This week witnessed gold fall 1.17% on the back of the 2.36% drop seen the previous week. The yellow metal now approaches key support at the 100-day moving average at $1475.

Gold’s inability to climb amid weakness in the dollar may be a pre-curser to further losses moving forward. The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar ) declined more than 1.7% this week as improving risk appetite saw traders jettison the greenback for higher-yielding growth-linked assets. Yet the losses in the dollar and advances in the S&P did not translate into gains for gold, suggesting that there may be a fundamental shift away from the metal as an alternate investment. The breakdown of these key correlations continues to suggest gold me be in a technical correction as traders continue seek riskier assets.

With central banks like the ECB now gearing up to raise interest rates in an attempt to combat higher food and energy costs, the long gold anti-inflationary play will begin to lose its luster as sluggish wage growth and higher rates give rise to deflationary concerns. As appetite continues to pick up, gold becomes less of an attractive asset for traders seeking to maximize exposure to higher yielding investments.

However in light of the recent rally seen in equities, one would expect some consolidation ahead of next week’s jam packed global economic docket with rate decisions from the ECB, BOE, and the RBA on tap. The week closes with Friday’s highly anticipated non-farm payroll figures with estimates calling for a read of just 100K after last month’s dismal print of just 54K. If data next week upsets the recent shift in risk sentiment, gold could pair some of the losses seen this week as traders flock to haven assets. However, with central banks moving to curb inflation and interest rates seen on the rise, the metal should remain well anchored with risk weighted to the downside.

A Fibonacci extension taken from the all-time highs on May 2 nd and the June 22 nd peak reveals downside targets below the 100-day moving average at 76.4% extension at 1468, followed by the convergence of the 100% extension and trendline support dating back to July 28 th 2010 at $1440. If the 100-day moving average holds, a rebound sees topside targets at the 50% Fib extension just shy of the $1500 level, backed by $1530.- MB

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
01 July 2011 22:59 GMT


Guest Commentary: Gold Prices Outlook 07.01.2011


Gold & Silver – Daily Outlook 1 July

Gold and silver finished June with moderate changes, but already started off July with falls. As we are entering the long weekend, what will gold and silver prices do today? The European unemployment report will be published today along with the US durable good report.

Let’s examine the news of the day related to the precious metals market for today July 1 st :

Gold and Silver P rices – June/July

Gold price shifted direction again and closed the month of June with moderate falls on Thursday, June 30 th as it declined by 0.90% to $1,496.

Silver on the other hand inclined on Thursday by 0.18% to $34.83.These changes are very modest so they continue to demonstrate a slow paced movement by bullion metals.

During June, gold decreased by 2.6%, and silver declined by 9.1%.

The chart below shows the normalized gold and silver (May 31 st 2011=100).

It shows how silver tumbled down in three steps: at the beginning, middle and near end of June. Actually, during the last few days of June, silver bounced back a bit. Gold, on the other hand, was much more stable and had its sharpest fall during the penultimate week of June.

Guest_Commentary_Gold_Daily_Outlook_07.01.2011_body_Gold_prices_forecast__silver_price_outlook_2011_JULY_1.png, Guest Commentary: Gold Prices Outlook 07.01.2011

As of Thursday, June 30 th the ratio between gold and silver continued to remain unchanged as it reached 42.97; during June this ratio inclined by 7.1%, which means that during June gold, has outperformed silver.

Guest_Commentary_Gold_Daily_Outlook_07.01.2011_body_Gold_prices_forecast__silver_price_outlook_ratio_2011_JULY_1.png, Guest Commentary: Gold Prices Outlook 07.01.2011

US Dollar Gold and S ilve r– July Update

The US dollar continues to depreciate against the Euro, following the Greek voting during the week. If this will continue today, this might affect gold and silver to incline. Nonetheless, since the Euros to US dollar is traded down very moderately, its effect on gold and silver prices might be little.

US Durable Goods R eport

Today, the U.S. durable good report will be published regarding May. This report indirectly shows the changes in U.S. demand for goods including major commodities such as crude oil. In April 2011, there was decrease in manufactured durable goods by $7.1 billion or 3.6% to $189.9 billion; Non-defense new orders for capital goods decreased by $5.3 billion or 7.3% to $67.6 billion.

This report was suggested to have an effect on the yields of US treasury bonds according to Balduzzi, Elton, and Green (2001); if this will be the case, it might also have an indirect effect on gold and silver, if the results in this report will be a surprise.

European Unemployment R eport

This report will show the changes of unemployment rate in Euro area during May 2011. For the month of April, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.9%, i.e. 15.529 million people were unemployed in the Euro Area. This figure is lower than the rate of April 2010, which stood then on 10.2%. In the EU27, 22.547 million people were unemployed during April 2011. If the report will show again no improvement this will likely to have little effect on Euro/USD and consequently won’t affect much gold and silver.

Gold and S ilver Outlook:

Gold and silver ended June with light changes and July might bring new changes; one of the key factors will remain the USD effect on bullion metals prices’; the upcoming US durable report might have some small effect on gold and silver along with the Euro unemployment report via the changes in the Euro/USD. But as we are entering the long weekend it’s likely that there will continue to be little changes in gold and silver today.

I still speculate that in the mid term gold will remain near the $1,500 mark and silver will level out at $33-35 mark.

Here is a reminder of the top events and reports that are planed for today and tomorrow (all times GMT):

Today

10.00 – Euro Area unemployment rate

13:30 – US Department of Commerce – Report on Durable Goods

For further reading: Gold and silver prices outlook for June 2011

By: Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst for Trading NRG

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
01 July 2011 13:46 GMT


Gold Approaches Key Support Shift in Appetite to Risk Further Losses


Gold

Gold/USD • NY Spot Close 1487.14

Gold_Approaches_Key_Support_Shift_in_Appetite_to_Risk_Further_Losses__body_xauusd_risk.png, Gold Approaches Key Support- Shift in Appetite to Risk Further Losses Gold Approaches Key Support– Shift in Appetite to Risk Further Losses

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Bearish

  • Gold Could Fall off a Cliff
  • Gold Price Hurt by Haven Status as Europe Drives Confidence
  • S&P 500 Hints Doubt Bottom, Oil and Gold at Trend-Defining Barriers

With risk appetite returning to markets in full force this week, significant gains in equities coupled with the end of the dollar diluting Fed easing policies are likely to see gold remain on the defensive. This week witnessed gold fall 1.17% on the back of the 2.36% drop seen the previous week. The yellow metal now approaches key support at the 100-day moving average at $1475.

Gold’s inability to climb amid weakness in the dollar may be a pre-curser to further losses moving forward. The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar ) declined more than 1.7% this week as improving risk appetite saw traders jettison the greenback for higher-yielding growth-linked assets. Yet the losses in the dollar and advances in the S&P did not translate into gains for gold, suggesting that there may be a fundamental shift away from the metal as an alternate investment. The breakdown of these key correlations continues to suggest gold me be in a technical correction as traders continue seek riskier assets.

With central banks like the ECB now gearing up to raise interest rates in an attempt to combat higher food and energy costs, the long gold anti-inflationary play will begin to lose its luster as sluggish wage growth and higher rates give rise to deflationary concerns. As appetite continues to pick up, gold becomes less of an attractive asset for traders seeking to maximize exposure to higher yielding investments.

However in light of the recent rally seen in equities, one would expect some consolidation ahead of next week’s jam packed global economic docket with rate decisions from the ECB, BOE, and the RBA on tap. The week closes with Friday’s highly anticipated non-farm payroll figures with estimates calling for a read of just 100K after last month’s dismal print of just 54K. If data next week upsets the recent shift in risk sentiment, gold could pair some of the losses seen this week as traders flock to haven assets. However, with central banks moving to curb inflation and interest rates seen on the rise, the metal should remain well anchored with risk weighted to the downside.

A Fibonacci extension taken from the all-time highs on May 2 nd and the June 22 nd peak reveals downside targets below the 100-day moving average at 76.4% extension at 1468, followed by the convergence of the 100% extension and trendline support dating back to July 28 th 2010 at $1440. If the 100-day moving average holds, a rebound sees topside targets at the 50% Fib extension just shy of the $1500 level, backed by $1530.- MB

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
01 July 2011 22:59 GMT


Emas Tertekan Dollar AS


Emas Tertekan Dollar AS

Jumat, 01 Juli 2011 10:07 WIB
TODAY’S ANALYSIS COMMODITY

Harga emas berpeluang untuk menuju level resistance di $1,525/ons, menurut Barclays Capital. Harga emas masih berada di bawah level $1,500/ons dikarenakan penguatan dollar AS dan aktifitas pembelian safe-haven yang minim sehingga menekan logam mulia.

“Level resistance emas di $1,525/ons, level support di bawah $1,490/ons lalu $1,460/$1470,” katanya. Untuk jangka menengah momentum masih bullish. Spot emas di $1,499.10/ons, turun $1.20 dari level penutupan New York kemarin (30/06). Harga emas kemarin sempat merosot karena investor memarkir dana tunai ke aset yang lebih beresiko setelah voting Yunani yang kedua. Penguatan dollar AS semakin menekan harga emas di hari ini (01/07).

EUR/USD di 1.4483 dari 1.4502 hari Kamis malam.


Data China Tenggelamkan Minyak


Data China Tenggelamkan Minyak

Jumat, 01 Juli 2011 12:19 WIB
TODAY’S ANALYSIS COMMODITY

Kontrak minyak mentah merosot di hari Jumat (01/07). Sebelumnya minyak sempat mencetak penguatan di awal pekan  setelah dollar AS menguat terhadap euro dan data China yang lemah.

Tadi malam (30/06) minyak ditutup menguat akibat pelemahan dollar di tengah kepercayaan yang meningkat atas penyelesaian masalah hutang Yunani. Trader masih menunggu data selanjutnya untuk dijadikan petunjuk bagi perdagangan. “Data hasil industri China yang lebih rendah dari perkiraan juga membebani dikarenakan kekhawatiran atas imbas dari permintaan minyak global . PMI China bulan Juni turun menjadi 50.9 dari 52.0 di bulan Mei. Minyak Nymex bulan Agustus di $94.70/barrel, turun $0.72 di Globex. Minyak Brent bulan Agustus turun $0.72 menjadi $111.76/barrel.


Minyak Terhampar Dekat $95


Minyak Terhampar Dekat $95

Jumat, 01 Juli 2011 05:50 WIB
TODAY’S ANALYSIS COMMODITY

Minyak turun di bawah $95 per barel hari Kamis dalam sesi turun naik seiring kecemasan investor mengenai kekerasan di Yunani dan ketidakpastian mengenai rencana dirilisnya stok cadangan miynak mentah International Energy Agency. Kekerasan di Athena bertambah parah menyusul persetujuan perlemen Yunani atas implementasi rencana penghematan untuk paket bantuan senilai 28 milyar euro dari IMF dan Uni Eropa.

“Masalah Yunani belum selesar,” ucap Thorbjorn Bak Jensen, analis minyak pada Global Risk Management. “Jika sistem mengetat, Yunani tidak membutuhkan kenaikan suku bunga.” Komentar dari gubernur ECB Jean-Claude Trichet menguatkan ekspektasi kenaikan tingkat suku bunga pekan depan. Euro meyentuh level tinggi 3 pekan terhadap dollar membantu memicu lonjakan harga minyak pada awal sesi. Minyak juga terdukung oleh data yang menunjukkan aktivitas pabrik di bagian Midwest bertambah cepat di bulan Juni.

Investor Lepas Emas Pasca Voting Yunani


Investor Lepas Emas Pasca Voting Yunani

Kamis, 30 Juni 2011 21:53 WIB
TODAY ANALYSIS COMMODITY
Emas diperdagangkan lebih murah pada hari Kamis seiring meningkatnya minat investor terhadap aset beresiko pasca Yunani berhasil melewati voting parlemen ke-2.
“Sentimen resiko membaik setelah parlemen Yunani menyetujui langkah-langkah penghematan,” kata Stefan Graber, seorang analis pada Credit Suisse Group AG. “Hal itu memacu penguatan Euro versus Dollar AS, yang pada gilirannya mengalihkan minat investor terhadap logam mulia.”
Selama 3 bulan terakhir Emas telah diuntungkan oleh kecemasan investor terhadap resiko default Yunani yang berpotensi mempengaruhi seluruh perekonomian di zona euro. Emas juga memperoleh dukungan dari 3 bencana besar di Jepang, serta prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi global yang melambat.
Saat ini Emas bergerak sekitar 0,35% lebih rendah di kisaran $1504.50/ons, setelah mencatat kenaikan dalam 2 sesi berturut-turut.

Emas Menguat Ditopang Permintaan


 

Jumat, 17 Juni 2011 21:25 WIB

TODAY’S ANALYSIS COMMODITY

Emas naik lebih lanjut dekati titik tertinggi bulanan ditopang kuatnya permintaan fisik meskipun trend pelemahan global masih menghantui. Dilaporkan pembelian emas fisik kembali meningkat ditengah musim pernikahan di Asia, terutama India dan China. Peritel dan pengusaha perhiasan membeli Emas untuk memenuhi permintaan musiman yang akan tinggi sehingga mereduksi faktor lemahnya pemulihan ekonomi global. Faktor positif lain penopang emas adalah kekhawatiran utang Yunani yang telah didiskon pasar. Anggota Uni Eropa Urusan Moneter dan Ekonomi Olli Rehn mengatakan bahwa review mengenai Yunani dengan IMF akan dirilis pada Senin depan, dan pada hari itu juga Eurogroup diharapkan mampu mengambil keputusan untuk menggelontorkan pinjaman ke Yunani pada awal Juli. Meski komentar tersebut cukup melegakan pasar namun rencana bailout baru masih belum difinalisasi sehingga masih banyak ketidakpastian. Berdasarkan studi teknikal, bias intraday masih Bullish selama harga bergerak didalam bullish channel pada grafik H4. Bagaimanapun masih dibutuhkan penembusan konsisten diatas area 1541 untuk memicu momentum bullish lebih lanjut menguji level resisten kunci 1550. Di sisi bawahnya, hanya level support terdekat ada di area 1525 – 1530. Anjlok dibawah area tersebut dapat membawa harga ke zona netral karena arahnya menjadi tidak jelas.

 

***EnglishVersion***

 

Gold Gains Sustained Demand
Friday, June 17, 2011 21:25 AM

TODAY’S COMMODITY ANALYSIS

Gold rose further to approach the highest point of the monthly underpinned strong physical demand despite the weakening global trend is still haunting. Reported purchase of physical gold back up amid wedding season in Asia, especially India and China.

Retailers and employers to purchase gold jewelry to meet seasonal demand will be high so that the reduction factor of the weak global economic recovery.

Another positive factor supporting gold is the concern that Greece‘s debt market has been discounted. Members of the European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn said that the review of Greece with the IMF will be released next Monday, and on that day Eurogroup also expected to take decisions to lending poured into Greece in early July. Although the comment was quite a relief to the market but the new bailout plan is still not finalized, so there are still many uncertainties.

Based on the study of technical, intraday bias remains bullish as long as the price moves in the bullish channel on H4 charts. However still required penetration is consistent over the area in 1541 to trigger further bullish momentum to test key resistance level of 1550.

On the bottom side, only the closest support level is in the area from 1525 to 1530. Fell below that area could bring the price into the neutral zone because its direction is unclear.


Outlook Permintaan Cemaskan Minyak


Jumat, 10 Juni 2011 15:24 WIB
TODAY’S ANALYSIS COMMODITY

Harga minyak turun akibat suramnya outlook permintaan energi seiring bank sentral di Asia lanjutkan pengetatan moneter dan lemahnya situasi tenaga kerja AS. Bank sentral Korea Selatan kembali naikkan suku bunga untuk ketiga kalinya tahun ini sedangkan klaim pengangguran AS meningkat. “Bulls dan Bears sedang berperang sengit,” papar Jonathan Barrat, petinggi Commodity Broking Services. “Harga tentu akan bergerak lebih tinggi jika situasi ekonomi membaik, tapi data belakangan ini tidak mendukung.” Analis teknikal Reuters, Wang Tao, melihat pemulihan harga minyak akan berakhir di $103.

Di lain pihak, OPEC gagal capai kesepakatan pada pertemuan 8 Juni silam meski enam anggotanya, termasuk Arab Saudi, telah serukan kenaikan output. “Dengan tidak berubahnya target output OPEC maka data ekonomi AS akan menjadi penentu arah minyak dalam waktu dekat,” ungkap Victor Shum, konsultan Purvin & Gertz. “Pasar mungkin telah sadari masalah pasokan OPEC tidak begitu signifikan dalam waktu dekat. Yang terpenting adalah suplai minyak aktual di pasar dan komitmen Saudi memompa lebih banyak minyak.”

Dari sisi teknikal, minyak masih terperangkap di dalam pola symmetrical triangle, yang mungkin akan terus batasi pergerakan emas hitam hingga keluar dari pola tersebut. 110.70, harga terendah kemarin akan menjadi support. Sedangkan penembusan 102.12, harga tertinggi hari ini, akan bantu pengujian 102.43, harga tertinggi 10 Juni.

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Friday, June 10, 2011 15:24 pm
TODAY’S COMMODITY ANALYSIS

Oil prices fell due to gloomy outlook for energy demand in Asia as central banks continue with monetary tightening and a weak U.S. employment situation. South Korea’s central bank raises interest rates for the third time this year while the U.S. unemployment claims rose. “Bulls and Bears are fighting fierce,” said Jonathan Barratt, officials Commodity Broking Services. “Prices will certainly move higher if the economic situation improved, but recent data do not support.” Technicians Reuters, Wang Tao, see the recovery in oil prices will end up at $ 103.

On the other hand, OPEC failed to reach an agreement on June 8 last meeting although six members, including Saudi Arabia, has called for increased output. “With no change in OPEC output target of the U.S. economic data will be the determinant of the direction of oil in the near future,” said Victor Shum, Purvin & Gertz consultancy. “The market may have been aware of OPEC’s supply problems are not so significant in the near future. Most important is the actual oil supply in the market and commitment Arabia pump more oil.”

From the technical side, oil is still trapped in a symmetrical triangle pattern, which may continue to restrict the movement of black gold to get out of the pattern. 110.70, the lowest price yesterday would be a support. While the penetration of 102.12, the highest price today, will help test 102.43, the highest price June 10.


Emas Butuh Petunjuk Fed


Senin, 06 Juni 2011 16:14 WIB
TODAY’S ANALYSIS COMMODITY

Emas lanjutkan penguatan setelah suramnya data tenaga kerja AS picu kekhawatiran atas perlambatan pemulihan ekonomi terbesar dunia dan pelonggaran moneter Fed lebih lanjut. Perusahaan AS lebih sedikit merekrut pegawai di bulan Mei, bahkan tingkat pengangguran naik menjadi 9,1%; ini timbulkan kecemasan goyahnya pertumbuhan ekonomi sehingga mendukung sentimen emas sebagai aset safe haven.

“Suramnya data ekonomi belakangan ini munculkan kemungkinan Quantitative Easing III,” kata Ong Yi Ling, analis Phillip Futures. “Meski terlalu dini berpikiran seperti itu namun Federal Reserve mungkin saja tempuh kebijakan tersebut jika indikator ekonomi AS terus memburuk. Ini dapat jadi katalis bagi emas lewati $1550 dan cetak rekor tinggi baru.”

Ketika Fed umumkan Quantitative Easing II pada bulan November 2010, emas reli dan cetak rekor untuk 4 sesi berurutan. “Sebelum ada petunjuk jelas dari Fed akan pelonggaran kebijakan moneter lebih lanjut, emas mungkin bergerak sideways, terjebak di kisaran $1.520 – $1.550,” ungkap trader yang diwawancarai Reuters. Analis teknikal Reuters, Wang Tao, juga lihat emas harus lewati resisten kuat berikutnya $1.553.

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Monday, June 6, 2011 16:14 pm
TODAY’S COMMODITY ANALYSIS

Gold continue strengthening after gloomy U.S. employment data triggers fears over slowing world’s largest economic recovery and further Fed monetary easing. U.S. companies recruit fewer employees in May, even the unemployment rate rose to 9.1%; this caused anxiety goyahnya economic growth that supports the sentiments of gold as a safe haven asset.

“gloomy economic data lately III raises the possibility of quantitative easing,” said Ong Yi Ling, an analyst at Phillip Futures. “Although too early to think like that but the Federal Reserve might be the travel policy if U.S. economic indicators continue to deteriorate. It can be a catalyst for gold passed $ 1,550 and printed a new high record.”

When the Fed announced quantitative easing II in November 2010, the gold rally and print the record for the fourth consecutive session. “Before there was a clear indication from the Fed will ease monetary policy further, gold may move sideways, stuck in the range $ 1,520 – $ 1,550,” said a trader who was interviewed by Reuters. Technicians Reuters, Wang Tao, also see strong resistance of gold must pass the next $ 1,553.